10 key trends to watch for 2014 from GlobalTrends.com

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When Moore’s Law was published, its model of exponential rates of change seemed unbelievable. Today it still guides the semiconductor sector. The accelerating global pace of change today is analogous to Moore’s law. Since the turn of the century, emerging markets have moved center stage, the digital revolution has arrived, social networks have become ubiquitous, a sharing economy has been born, scientific advances such as mapping the human genome have changed our lives, and the voice of the people has reinvented markets and overturned governments.
For organizations and individuals the opportunities and challenges that a Moore’s Law of change offers are vast. Look for continued radical changes in retail and social networks and value chains being reconfigured as connectivity and technology redistribute industry. “Hubonomics” will shift how and where we operate and consume. The latest scientific advances will make the impossible, possible. Perhaps the biggest issue looking forward will be to understand and manage the contradictions these changes entail.
So where should leaders look today? In our forthcoming Global Trends Report 2014, The Fieldbook (forthcoming), we highlight 10 trends that business leaders need to focus on today. Note: The Global Trends Report, The Fieldbook is a companion guide to The Global Trends Report 2013, which provide analysis, case studies, company examples and food for thought on these critical trends.

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10 key trends to watch for 2014 from GlobalTrends.com

  1. 1. 10 Key Trends to Watch for 2014 www.globaltrends.com © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 1
  2. 2. 10 Trends to Watch for 2014 1. From social everything to being smart socially 2. Information security: The genie is out of the bottle 3. Who needs shops anyway? 4. Redistributing the industrial revolution 5. Hubonomics: The new face of globalization 6. Sci-Fi is here: Making the impossible, possible 7. Growing pains: Transforming markets and generations 8. Panic versus disbelief: The resource gap grows, the global risks rise – but who is listening? 9. Fighting unemployability and unemployerability 10. Surviving in a bipolar world: From expecting consistency to embracing ambiguity © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 2
  3. 3. 1. From social everything to being smart socially © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 3
  4. 4. Social technologies are everywhere, but these vast repositories of digital “stuff” bury the exceptional among the unimportant. It’s time to get socially smart. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 4
  5. 5. Users are moving to niche networks to bring back the community feel and intelligence to social interactions. Think: Quora, Quibb, Path, Best of All Worlds, Doximity and GovLoop. Ask: What’s next after Facebook? © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 5
  6. 6. Businesses need to get smarter about extracting and delivering value from big data because… …companies with the most advanced big data analytics capabilities are: • Twice as likely to be in the top quartile of financial performance within their industries. • Five times as likely to make decisions much faster than market peers. Source: Bain & Company © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 6
  7. 7. For social networks, mobile is the great leveller. Which apps will get users attention? 1.47 1.22 1.73 1.97 2.18 2.37 2.55 23.7% 20.4% 18.0% 13.4% 10.8% 8.9% 7.5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Social network users (billions) Source:eMarketer 2016 2017 % change © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 7
  8. 8. Thought your information was safe? Think again! 2. Information security: The genie is out of the bottle © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 8
  9. 9. Privacy is only an illusion: Cyber-surveillance and data mining by public and private organizations is increasing – and don’t forget criminal networks and whistleblowers. You are tracked everywhere and by everyone © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 9
  10. 10. Newly built smart cities are protected and managed by mass surveillance BUT residents could be put at risk, if stockpiles of personal data are hacked. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 10
  11. 11. Intelligence no longer belongs only to humans – deep learning might soon be here are “playing” with technologies that will understand the deeper meaning of users’ actions and emotions on social networks. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 11
  12. 12. Retailers are facing a digitally driven perfect storm. 3. Who needs shops anyway? Photo: Source=[http://www.flickr.com/photos/womeos/6026330194/ Eaton Centre] * Uploaded bySkeezix1000 |Date=2011-08-09 20:44, © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com licensed under he Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license. 12
  13. 13. By 2017 global mobile commerce transactions will exceed US$3.2 trillion, up from US$1.5 trillion in 2013. (Source: Juniper Research, Mediabistro) Connectivity, rising consumer influence, time scarcity, mobile payments, and the internet of things, are changing where, when and how we shop... © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 13
  14. 14. …if smart machines have not already done the job. Source: http://www.bornrich.com/self-cleaning-high-tech-fridge-of-the-future-in-the-works.html © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 14
  15. 15. In the emerging Corporation sharing Crowd created new goods economy, experience and PROVIDE A PLATFORM The sustainable Collaborative consumption People build Economy Value Chain are more Brand important MOTIVATE A MARKETPLACE than ownership. Gift good Swap Redraw from Altimeter, via Web strategist. Subscribe COMPANY AS A SERVICE Rental Co-Own Share goods © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 15
  16. 16. The future of shops… Experiential spaces offering personalized service, e.g. Burberry Integrated online and offline value propositions 92% of shoppers have more confidence in information sought online versus anything from a salesclerk or other source. (Source: Mediabistro) Pop-up stores for immediacy and surprise Source: Burberry, Regent Street flagship store, London, UK This image is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license. Author: Gilda from London, UK © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 16
  17. 17. Complex, global value chains are being redistributed by new technologies, labor market shifts and connectivity. 4. Redistributing the industrial revolution © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 17
  18. 18. Small-scale manufacturing, including 3D is moving production closer to markets and enabling mass customization – while the maker movement goes mainstream. Photo: Author Kyle Pearce (www.diygenius.com) via Flickr; licensed for reuse under the Creative Commons AttributionShareAlike 2.0 license. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 18
  19. 19. Rising labor costs in developing markets, high unemployment in developed markets, global access to online talent and knowledge, plus advances in robotics mean reshoring of production to developed markets will increase. Global Average Salary Increases 2012-2014 7.6% 7.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.9% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.4% 5.8% 6.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% Africa Source: Aon Asia Latin America 2012 Average Increases Middle East 2013 Average Increases North America Europe 2014 Average Increases © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 19
  20. 20. As production and consumption become more distributed, hubs will characterize the next wave of “globalization.” 5. Hubonomics: The new face of globalization © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 20
  21. 21. Hubs will specialize to support the needs of growing regional trade, emerging city states, online communities of choice, and the next generation of flexible workers and entrepreneurs. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 21
  22. 22. Underpinning these hubs will be global knowledge networks and new business and governance models based on hubonomics™, that leverage global assets and hub strengths to deliver local value. The World Bank’s SouthSouth Knowledge Exchange connects countries to share knowledge to promote development, for example exporting India’s dairy “revolution” to help feed children in East Africa. The Asia-Pacific Water Forum’s KnowledgeHubs are centers of excellence committed to improving water security in the Asia-Pacific region by promoting knowledge sharing and championing feasible solutions. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 22
  23. 23. Scientific breakthroughs could change our lives, work, bodies and intelligence. 6. Sci-Fi is here: Making the impossible possible © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 23
  24. 24. Advanced technology is redefining our world THINK • • • • • • Mind control and artificial intelligence Shape-shifting materials Self-organizing nanobots Cyborgs and enhanced humans Space exploration High-speed, intelligent transportation © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 24
  25. 25. Thought control has already been tried on many levels… • A HMS research team controlled a rat's tail. • At UW one researcher sent a brain signal via the internet to control the hand motions of a fellow researcher. • RAC’s “attentionpowered car” is controlled by brainwaves. • Ford, BMW, Fiat, Daimler, Volvo and Volkswagen are testing systems that take control of the e.g. steering wheel when risks are detected. (Source: PSFK, BBC). © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 25
  26. 26. Soon shape-shifting materials and self-organizing nanobots will repair what’s broken. Technology is moving off the desktop and on to our body while Iron Man-style suits will give troops “superhuman strength.” Think: 4D printing, swarmbots or M-blocks, Hyperloop, wearable technology Ask: How can my company tap into this extraordinary world of new technologies? © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 26
  27. 27. 7. Growing pains: Transforming markets and generations © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 27
  28. 28. The golden years of extreme growth are over but the emerging markets growth engine is far from dead… HOWEVER, the growing pains of these markets demand significant shifts in governance, financial systems, education and economic policies to get them back on an upward track. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 28
  29. 29. The “I WANT MORE” generation with lots of disposable income to spend will most likely be the generation of transformers that has the power to restore growth in emerging markets. World consumption, US$ trillion 64 Emerging markets Developed markets 30 38 12 26 2010 34 2025*** ***Estimate based on 2010 private-consumption share of GDP per country and GDP estimates for 2010 and 2025; assumes private consumption’s share o GDP will remain constant. Source: McKinsey © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 29
  30. 30. 8. Panic versus denial: The resource gap grows, the global risks rise – but who is listening? © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 30
  31. 31. The complex nexus of food, water, energy and climate change presents huge environmental and societal challenges – heating up the battle to access new resources, from the Arctic to fracking. EXPECT More debate and calls for responsible capitalism. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 31
  32. 32. Explosive population and consumption growth will exacerbate water security challenges in Asia, leading to potential geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Source: Princeton © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 32
  33. 33. Food security is a growing issue. In 2050 the world’s population could demand TWICE as many resources as the planet can supply. How can we get more food on the table? More vertical farming? Food hubs like…? Lab grown food? Cropmobster connects producers of edible but unsold food with those needing it. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 33
  34. 34. Fighting unemployability is critical while also fostering talent for the future. 9. Fighting unemployability and unemployerability © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 34
  35. 35. Companies are desperate for talented workers – yet unemployment rates remains high Caterpillar attempted to hire 26 employees in the U.S. but nobody applied! Unemployed people in the U.S.: 7.3% Unfilled jobs in the U.S.: 3 million Unfilled manufacturing jobs in the U.S.: 200,000+ It is time to rethink how to prepare talent for the future. Ask: How your organization can move from unemployability to helping to develop the skills of the future? © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 35
  36. 36. Governments, NGOs, businesses and other private institutions must rethink their role in developing future talent. Computer maker Lenovo is partnering with leading Chinese universities to identify top talent that may have gone abroad to study. Financial institution Barclays is working with UNICEF to help reduce youth unemployment through the Building Young Futures programme. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com The Indian government has launched the National Skill Development Corporation to fund training centers and liaise with industry. 36
  37. 37. Employers must also focus on organizational unemployerability – not being able to attract and retain desired talent – as new generations demand exciting and meaningful work where they can make an impact. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 37
  38. 38. Skills making workers and leaders successful today will not stay the same forever. New skills are required. Want to stay on top of the game? • • • • • • Social intelligence Agile thinking Leadership skills Cross-cultural skills Innovative, entrepreneurial mindset Human-machine collaboration © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 38
  39. 39. 10. Surviving in a polarizing world: The contradictions of leadership © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 39
  40. 40. The US is still a leading superpower but is struggling with a very dysfunctional political system … while a melting pot of cultures makes it difficult for the Eurozone to solve economic, political and security issues. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 40
  41. 41. Companies of all shapes and sizes are playing a bigger role in solving societal issues. EXPECT More companies to combine profit with purpose and responsibility. Companies such as Unilever, Tata, Royal DSM, Marks & Spencer and TorontoDominion Bank are already leading the way demonstrating it is an approach making good business sense. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 41
  42. 42. The contradictions of leadership and life are increasing faster than our ability to reconcile the often polarized perspectives and values each embodies. Surviving in this world will demand stronger, responsible leadership comfortable with and capable of embracing ambiguity and uncertainty, as opposed to expecting consistency and predictability. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 42
  43. 43. How will these trends impact your organization? Are you ready? © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 43
  44. 44. www.globaltrends.com This presentation is adapted from the GT Briefing 10 Key Trends to Watch in 2014 and The Global Trends Report 2013: Towards a Distributed Future by Tracey Keys and Thomas Malnight. Electronic copies of the briefing and The Global Trends Report 2013 are available on www.globaltrends.com, and printed copies of The Global Trends Report 2013 can be found on Amazon.com and Amazon’s European sites. Don’t forget to register at www.globaltrends.com now to make sure you don’t miss our next monthly briefing (they are free)! About the Authors Tracey Keys is Director of Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. Thomas Malnight is a professor of strategy and general management at the International Institute for Management Development (IMD), in Lausanne, Switzerland. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 44

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