Global Trends 10 Key Trends to Watch for 2013

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The presentation to accompany our GT Briefing December 2012: 10 Key Trends to Watch for 2013. How will social everything, digital everything and the geopolitical fight for the future impact your …

The presentation to accompany our GT Briefing December 2012: 10 Key Trends to Watch for 2013. How will social everything, digital everything and the geopolitical fight for the future impact your organization? Are you ready?

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  • Hi Carlo
    Many thanks for your kind comments. We will be releasing the 10 trends to watch for 2014 presentation in the next couple of days on slideshare and hopefully will have covered some of the very valid suggestions you make below. Hope you find it interesting!
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  • My compliments. One of the most complete trends analysis I’ve read so far, meaning it is one of the few with an almost 360° view on trends that are paving our way towards future. I’d have add just one slide in chapter 3 on wearable technologies, something on smart cities and the internet of things (even though you touch lightly this point in slide 13), and finally something on how and if this generation of tech-savvy visionary young and less young bilionaires (i.e Gates, Zuckerberg, Brin, Dorsey, Musk, Branson, etc.) with their passions and resources will contribute to the next big shift for the human beings (we can think about Google’s Calico and Planetary Resources to have some clear example of what I mean).
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  • 1. 10 Key Trends to Watch for 2013 www.globaltrends.com© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 1
  • 2. 10 Trends to Watch for 2013 1. Social everything: New generations and their digital world stepping forward 2. Redefining value: The consumer is winning the fight to own the new consumer 3. Distributed everything: Mobility in production and consumption 4. The next “industrial” revolution: Robots and smart machines reshaping work 5. The new space race: Pushing the frontiers of technology once again? 6. Geopolitical wars: The fight to control the future 7. Resource wars escalating: From a world of abundance to shortage 8. Business stepping up: From profit to purpose 9. Information is power: The security challenge 10. Who needs banks anyway? Reshaping the financial system© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 2
  • 3. Social technologies are now a central part of everyday life and work. The social generations are reshaping firms from the inside, helping companies to build broader, more agile networks to create and deliver value to customers. Mobility and connectedness will be at the heart of the future business environment: Relationships, communications and marketing are moving from a focus on one-to-one, to many-to-many relationships. 1. SOCIAL EVERYTHING: NEW GENERATIONS AND THEIR DIGITAL WORLD STEPPING FORWARD© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 3
  • 4. Social technologies are moving from being solely consumer interaction platforms towards corporate life ADOPTION OF SOCIAL TECHNOLOGIES CONSUMER VERSUS COMPANY PENETRATION, GLOBAL, 2012 Users Employees Social networks 84% Social networks 50% Video sharing* 81% Video sharing* 38% Blogs 57% Blogs 41% Wikis** 36% Wikis** 25% Microblogging*** 23% Microblogging*** 23% Average 56% Average 35% •As of October 2011. ** Classified as directories. *** Includes microblogging sitesTwitter, Tumblr, Weibo, Plurk, and Posterous Spaces. Source: McKinsey Global Insitute - The social economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social technologies , July 2012© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 4
  • 5. As businesses and consumers become more networked, the focus is shifting from one-to-one to many-to-many relationships© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 5
  • 6. The notion of value is being redefined for the 21st century. Consumers have choice. They want personalization, and to participate in value creation, shifting the mindset to “made with me.” Value will also be about “shared with me,” as the ownerless economy expands, driven particularly by younger generations who value experiences they can share over possessions – ones that also deliver benefits for society. 2. REDEFINING VALUE: THE CONSUMER IS WINNING THE FIGHT TO OWN THE NEW CONSUMER© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 6
  • 7. Individualism, customization and uniqueness are the key CONSUMER ADVERTISING PREFERENCES (U.S. STUDY) 60% 59% Smartphone users Globally 70% of customers Feature phone users are willing to provide their bank with more information if this leads to greater personalization or 17% 18% 16% better service. 14% 10% 8% (Source: Ernst &Young – Global Consumer Banking Survey 2012 Personalized Promotions Promotions Promotions offers based on based on based on timing lifestyle location (Source: Upstream) Consumers want personalized, relevant content and experience from brands and information providers © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 7
  • 8. A new ownerless economy is emerging Why own when you can Why buy when rent and share? you can swap? The copyright on this image is owned by author David Hawgood and is licensed for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution- ShareAlike 2.0 license. Zipcar, the biggest international car-share scheme, has 700,000 members and more than 9,000 vehicles. Buzzcar, a French company set up by the Zipcar founder, has 605,000 members sharing 9,000 cars. (Source: The Economist – Seeing the back of the car.) © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 8
  • 9. Mobility is entering a new stage, where not only consumption occurs anywhere, anytime but also the tools and resources to create and capture value are more broadly distributed. Work has been becoming more distributed for years. Smart machines now tap the global brain. Small-scale manufacturing, including 3D printing, will reshape production. Renewable technologies are distributing energy production, while mass teaching platforms are revolutionizing education. Ask what can’t be distributed, not what can. 3. DISTRIBUTED EVERYTHING: MOBILITY IN PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 9
  • 10. New technologies are bringing “production” power into the hands of the consumer: 3D-printing is taking off… Just opened: Shapeways - a 25,000-square-foot 3D-printing “Factory of the Future,” Long Island City • U.S. Customers will be able to create and print out newly designed products within a matter of days at the facility. • When fully up and running the factory will be largest consumer-facing 3D printing manufacturing facility in the world. • It will house 30 to 50 high definition, industrial-sized 3D Photo: Author Kyle Pearce (www.diygenius.com) printers. Each is capable of producing more than 100 products via Flickr; licensed for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license. on a daily basis, and three to five million products on annual basis. • The factory will support Shapeways’ community of nearly 200,000 users. (Source: Smart Planet )© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 10
  • 11. …and we are increasingly creating our own healthcare system – personalized, of course • DIY health checks where you want them: By August 2012 there were over 13,000 iPhone health apps available for consumers, including Skin Scan which monitors the development of moles over time and Lifelens which can diagnose malaria with a drop of blood. • Being your own doctor by networking: Medical sites are exploding, linking patients to the best treatments and to other patients with the same conditions, e.g. PatientsLikeMe has almost 154,000 users who post their experiences with medications for more than 1000 conditions.© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 11
  • 12. Smart machines and robots will redefine society, by taking on any job that can be reduced to repetitive steps. Robots are now being deployed as receptionists, banking assistants and even prison guards, while technology allows amateurs to do what professionals once did. The upside: Addressing issues such as caring for ageing populations. The downside: Huge job losses. Yet the next wave of deployment of smart machines will also create new kinds of jobs. The challenge will be to ensure a workforce that is ready and skilled for them. 4. THE NEXT “INDUSTRIAL” REVOLUTION: ROBOTS AND SMART MACHINES RESHAPING WORK© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 12
  • 13. Perhaps our future job landscape look like this… INDUSTRY JOBS GOING AWAY (examples) JOBS BEING CREATED (examples)Power industry All types of power generation/coal plants will Manufacturing power generation units the size of air begin to close down. conditioning units will go into full production. Many railroad and transportation workers will Installation crews will begin to work around the clock. no longer be needed. People for the recycling of the national grid which has Utility company engineers/Line repairmen been taken down. Micro-grid operations requiring a new breed of engineers, managers, and regulators.Automobile Taxi, limo, bus, truck drivers Delivery dispatchers; traffic monitoring systemstransportation Gas stations, parking lots, traffic cops (require some people); automated traffic designers, Fewer doctors and nurses will be needed. architects, and engineers; driverless “ride experience” Delivery drivers (food, mail, package etc.) people; driverless operating system engineers; emergency crews.Education Teachers, trainers, professors Coaches; course designers; learning camps3D printers If we can print our own things: Manufacturers, 3D printer design, engineering, and manufacturing; 3D clothing/shoe retailers will quickly go away. printer repairmen will be in big demand; product Construction material, e.g. the lumber, rock, designers, stylists, and engineers for 3D printers, 3D drywall, shingle, concrete, and various other printer ‘Ink’ sellers. construction industries will go away.Bots Bots will replace fishermen, miners, farmers, Robot designers, engineers, repairmen, dispatchers. human inspectors. Therapists, trainers, fashion designers. Warrior drones will replace soldiers.Source: Thomas Frey, Innovation Editor, The Futurist © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 13
  • 14. However the digital world still needs human creativity, emotional engagement and sophistication of thinkingwhich, despite huge efforts, artificial brains are unlikely to offer in the near future!© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 14
  • 15. Scientific advances from national space programs have had a significant impact on how we live and work, from advanced materials to global telecommunications. Now, commercial space travel and exploration is a reality and a new space race is hotting up particularly between the US, China and Europe. New advances will surely result, as will questions over the ownership of space “assets,” and whether advances will be shared for public benefit. 5. THE NEW SPACE RACE: PUSHING THE FRONTIERS OF TECHNOLOGY ONCE AGAIN?© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 15
  • 16. A new industry – space tourism – is seeing the light of day • Virgin Galactic has already signed up well over 500 people willing to pay US$200,000 each to fly into space in 2013 on the SpaceShipTwos suborbital flights. • XTAR space plane that will take a pilot and one passenger/co-pilot up nearly 60 km for about half the price of a Virgin Galactic flight. • The Zero G Corporation offers weightless experiences on flights while it is possible to take cosmonaut training at Star City near Moscow. Source: Virgin Galactic/Mark Greenberg; licensed under the Creative Commons (Source: The Futurist – The New Age of Space Business) Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 16
  • 17. While space offers exciting opportunities, questionsinclude how international treaties on the use and controlof space will develop, and whether advances from spaceresearch will be shared? THE U.S RUSSIA CHINA EUROPE INDIA ADVENTURE CAPITALISTS COMMERCIAL CAPITALISTS© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 17
  • 18. The BRICS and Beyond (other rapidly growing economies) will be where the fight to control future economic growth and social development will take place. It’s a multipolar market landscape, based on dramatically different economic, social and political systems. Politicians, along with companies, are still trying to find and control their place in the new world order, even as trust in governments falls, nationalism rises, and power shifts towards the people. The potential for radical political shifts at home and between nations is rising. 6. GEOPOLITICAL WARS: THE FIGHT TO CONTROL THE FUTURE© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 18
  • 19. Economic power is shifting from West and North to South and East SHARE OF GLOBAL GDP (MEASURED BY EACH COUNTRY’S GDP, ADJUSTED FOR PURCHASING POWER) 35% 30% EMERGING MARKET POWER 25% To reach a financial deal in 2010, the IMF was forced to 20% increase the emerging economies’ voting share by 15% around 6%, with Europe European Union 10% losing around 4%. Developing Asia, including China and India Now emerging markets are 5% United States demanding an even greater share of power. 0% 1980 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: IMF © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 19
  • 20. At the same time, global is giving way to local, as protectionism increases and countries seek to boost flagging economies WHICH COUNTRIES HAVE INFLICTED MOST HARM SINCE NOVEMBER 2008? Rank Ranked by # of (almost certainly) “Im calling on those businesses discriminatory measures imposed that havent brought jobs back to take this opportunity to get the 1 EU27 (302) American people back to work.“ 2 Russian Federation (169) President Obama, 2012 3 Argentina (141) 4 India (74) 5 UK (67) 6 Germany (64) 7 France (61) 8 China (60) 9 Italy (56) 10 Brazil (54)Source: Débâcle: The 11th GTA Report on ProtectionismNotes: There is no single metric to evaluate harm. Different policy measures affect different numbers of products, economic sectors, and trading partners. GTA reports four measures of harm. * The results for Germany aggregate the (many) measures taken bythe central government in Berlin and the (fewer) measures taken by the European Commission on behalf of all of the EU member states. Thisapproach was applied consistently to each EU member state. At the request of some users, Table 1.1 reports information on both individual EUmember states and the total amount of measures taken by all the member states plus the European Commission (listed as EU27). © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 20
  • 21. As the world’s population moves towards 9 billion by 2050, resources are under pressure, exacerbated by climate change. By 2030 we will demand twice as many resources as the planet can supply – risking social unrest and conflicts as people and nations compete for ever scarcer resources. Scarcity is already driving resource price volatility, and cross-border investments. New technologies and rethinking consumption will be critical in future – with businesses rather than governments likely to be leading the way. 7. RESOURCE WARS ESCALATING: FROM A WORLD OF ABUNDANCE TO SHORTAGE© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 21
  • 22. Natural resources are under pressure IS THE POPULATION ON EARTH MORE WATER IS NEEDED MORE ENERGY IS NEEDED MORE FOOD IS NEEDED© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 22
  • 23. Addressing the challenges: Do we fight over what is left, reduce consumption, or invent new resources? IN THE NEWS NOVEMBER 7, 2012 “Scientists believe they are getting closer to creating an artificial meat product, it may not be a steak initially, hamburger or ground beef are more likely as they are easier to create. The development of 3D printing technologies is aiding development efforts. Much like a laser printer mixes the primary colors to create a multitude of colors; different cell types can be loaded and “printed” to create an end product more closely resembling the taste and texture of real meat.” Source: Innovation Management)© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 23
  • 24. Many businesses are stepping up to a new role, often with partners, to tackle societal and economic challenges. In many areas, corporations are seeking to build legitimacy – and the license to operate – in the eyes of demanding consumers, employees and stakeholders who care about the impact and motivations of companies with whom they associate. But it’s also good business as companies realize mutual benefits with society. Look for more businesses redefining their corporate purpose as they step up to this new role. 8. BUSINESS STEPPING UP: FROM PROFIT TO PURPOSE© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 24
  • 25. Increasingly businesses do not only want to be the best in the world but also to do what is best for the world There is a growing community of more than 600 Certified B Corps from 15 countries and 60 industries working together towards the goal of redefining success in business. Patagonia, Etsy, and Ben & Jerry’s (now owned by Unilever), have all obtained B Corp certification. B Corp certification is to sustainable business what LEED certification is to green building or Fair Trade certification is to coffee (Source: Urban Times).© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 25
  • 26. Trust, values and collaboration are at the heart ofmoving from profit to purpose “The Pothole Brigade” Where: South Africa Who: Insurance company Direct Dial What: A road maintenance initiative that has repaired over 50,000 potholes in and around Johannesburg, as drivers reported them. Cutting ties with meat producer What: In 2012 an undercover video taped at a slaughterhouse in California showed horrible treatment of cows. Action taken: McDonald’s (and other companies) severed ties with the meat producer. Why: McDonald’s has worked with CI for years to develop environmentally and socially responsible food-sourcing guidelines. (Sources: JWT Anxiety Index and ABC News)© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 26
  • 27. Cyberspace is the new frontline for security. Knowledge and information is a source of competitive advantage, for organizations, nations and individuals. But it’s a growing challenge to retain control as mobility and the democratization of everything (commerce, politics, societies) increases – along with cybercrime and cyber war. Look for a rising tide of litigation, policies and regulation. Digital freedom or a “big brother” society? 9. INFORMATION IS POWER: THE SECURITY CHALLENGE© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 27
  • 28. Are we prepared at all for the new reality in cyber space? Global experts… Believe that an arms race is taking place in cyber space 57% Believe that cyber-security is as important as border security 45% Identify damage or disruption to critical infrastructure as the greatest single threat posed by cyber-attacks with wide economic 43% consequences Believe cyber-security is more important than missile defense 36% Source: Security and defense think-tank SDA - Cyber-security: The vexed question of global rules© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 28
  • 29. Will proliferation of cyber laws, meant to protect people, stifle free expression and speech? In the Philippines a controversial cyber crime law has been suspended after a public outcry. It was initially put in place to protect against Internet crimes like hacking, identity theft, spamming, and online child pornography. In January 2012 a public outcry swept the Internet and shook the power structure of Washington, D.C. aiming to stop PIPA (Protect IP Act) and SOPA (Stop Online Piracy Act). According to Freedom House recent revisions to the United Arab Emirates’ cyber crime law will not only restrict internet freedom but are in violation of citizens’ rights to freedom of expression. (Sources: Global Post and Freedom House).© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 29
  • 30. The financial system is broken. Regulators want change, businesses want new means of financing and consumers want alternatives. The “banks” of the future will include state-owned entities, and firms that simply don’t use cash: Think bartering and community currencies. Digital wallets and mobile banking are opening the door for telcos and software players, while trust is the entry point for retailers and crowdfunding communities. In an increasingly crowded and cashless financial system, banks may no longer be key players. 10. WHO NEEDS BANKS ANYWAY? RESHAPING THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 30
  • 31. Bartering is seeing new life as a medium of exchange More than 400,000 companies worldwide used bartering to earn an estimated US$12 billion on unwanted or underused assets in 2011. Source: International Reciprocal Trade Association© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 31
  • 32. Crowdfunding is a growing industry controlled by themasses with the potential to disrupt established financial systems Though not having the advantage of being “too big to fail” it comes with a set of challenges that policy makers cannot afford to ignore. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 32
  • 33. How will these trends impact your organization? Are you ready?© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 33
  • 34. www.globaltrends.com This presentation is adapted from the GT Briefing 10 Key Trends to Watch in 2013 and The Global Trends Report 2013: Towards a Distributed Future by Tracey Keys and Thomas Malnight. For an additional brief summary you can also see The Economist. Electronic copies of the briefing and The Global Trends Report 2013 are available on www.globaltrends.com, and printed copies of The Global Trends Report 2013 can be found on Amazon.com and Amazon’s European sites. Don’t forget to register at www.globaltrends.com now to make sure you don’t miss our next monthly briefing (they are free)! About the Authors Tracey Keys is Director of Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. Thomas Malnight is a professor of strategy and general management at the International Institute for Management Development (IMD), in Lausanne, Switzerland.© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 34