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Display Search LED 2008
 

Display Search LED 2008

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    Display Search LED 2008 Display Search LED 2008 Presentation Transcript

    • CMO LED Day Forum 2008年7月23日 LED BLU and Green High Tech Life 姚柏宏 / Luke Yao Research Director DisplaySearch/ Taiwan Email: Luke_yao@displaysearch.com Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved
    • Important Notice Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch, LLC an NPD Group Company DisplaySearch authorizes you to access and view these presentation materials. You may not modify, publicly disseminate, transmit, display, perform, reproduce, publish, license, create derivative works from, transfer or sell these presentation materials or any portion(s) thereof without prior written consent from DisplaySearch. Excerpts for editorial use must be accompanied by proprietary notices contained in the original materials and appropriate attribution of DisplaySearch or of the source of the original materials, as the case may be, and prior written consent from DisplaySearch must be obtained. To obtain such consent, contact info@displaysearch.com. DisplaySearch makes no representations about the suitability of the information contained in the materials or the website for any purpose. All materials on this website are provided quot;as isquot; without warranty of any kind. Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 2
    • Thank you! For more information on the analysis and data included in this presentation: Visit us at www.displaysearch.com Contact Patrick Maki +1-512-687-1511 or 877-869-6075 (US only) patrick_maki@displaysearch.com DisplaySearch Analyst Luke Yao - Research Director, Lighting David Hsieh - Vice President, Greater China Market Referenced and related DisplaySearch research: Quarterly Backlight Lamp and Backlight Unit Report Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 3
    • Subscribe today! Subscribe today for free market updates, shipment information, and more! www.displaysearch.com/datainsight Visit our blog today at www.displaysearchblog.com Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 4
    • Brief Introduction = The Most Professional Pipe Worker for Worldwide Display Industry Eqpt./Materials Panel OEMs Brands Retailers Consumers Suppliers Makers =The Professional Analyst of BLU Technology and Market Research Field •Backlight Module •Optical Films •LED Light Source Luke Yao Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 5
    • Agenda •Benefit and Potential of LED in Notebook Market •Cost Analysis and LED NB Market Forecast •Key Factors to Enhance The Penetration of LED NB •Summary Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 6
    • Agenda •Benefit and Potential of LED in Notebook Market •Cost Analysis and LED NB Market Forecast •Key Factors to Enhance The Penetration of LED NB •Summary Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 7
    • Green Life Image Only one Earth we have and we want her to be … Relaxing Dynamic Forever Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 8
    • Mission of Green Display Make LCD Display more Friendly to Earth… Enjoy your life through the Green Display even though you just sit in front of it. Reduce Hazardous Material Reduce Power Consumption Improve Recycle Practice Increase Product Life Time Reduce System Components Use Environmental Friendly Material Improve Efficiency of Components Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 9
    • Opportunity of L/A LED BLU Market Potential Advantage Challenge Driving Force High NB PC • Power Saving • Intensity • Light weight • LGP yield rate • Thin profile • LED Binning • Small cost premium • LED Package LCD TV • Power Saving • Cost • Dynamic BLU control • Reliability • LED Binning • Huge LED Amount Monitor • Power Saving • Cost • Intensity • Reliability • Selling Points Low Source: DisplaySearch Q2’08 Backlight Lamps and Backlight Units Report Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 10
    • Categories of LED BLUs for NBs Yield rate of LGP decides the penetration rate of LED BLU for NB application. High Brightness Model Regular Model BLU Structure Flat LGP (V-cut Pattern) Wedge LGP (Dot Pattern) Flat LGP (Dot Pattern) Film Stack Reflector+ LGP+ Turning Film + Top Reflector+ LGP+ Cross Prism Reflector+ LGP+ Cross Prism Diffuser Films + Top Diffuser Films + Top Diffuser Brightness ◎ ○ △ LGP Yield △ ◎ ○ Thickness ◎ ○ ◎ Cost △ ◎ ○ Patent Right Mitsubishi Rayon NA NA BLU Supplier △ ◎ ○ Relative Factor of Evaluation: ◎ > ○ > △ Source: DisplaySearch Q2’08 Backlight Lamps and Backlight Units Report Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 11
    • Agenda •Benefit and Potential of LED in Notebook Market •Cost Analysis and LED NB Market Forecast •Key Factors to Enhance The Penetration of LED NB •Summary Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 12
    • L/A LED BLU Forecast Q2'08 Forecast (000 units) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CCFL/EEFL/HCFL Backlight 282,694 392,286 448,965 469,188 493,610 491,605 468,497 468,351 483,190 497,553 LED Backlight 1,380 4,250 20,071 69,102 115,428 188,196 278,116 348,769 407,311 474,089 FFL Backlight 450 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 All >10quot; TFT 284,524 396,621 469,036 538,290 609,038 679,801 746,613 817,121 890,501 971,642 Q2'08 Forecast (This Time) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CCFL/EEFL/HCFL Backlight 99% 99% 95.7% 87% 81% 72% 63% 57% 54% 51% LED Backlight 0.5% 1.1% 4.3% 12.8% 19.0% 27.7% 37.3% 42.7% 45.7% 48.8% FFL Backlight 0.2% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% All >10quot; TFT 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Q1'08 Forecast (Last Time) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CCFL/EEFL/HCFL Backlight 99% 99% 96.3% 90% 83% 75% 66% 62% 59% 55% LED Backlight 0.5% 1.0% 3.7% 9.9% 17.0% 25.4% 34.0% 38.3% 41.0% 44.6% FFL Backlight 0.2% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% All >10quot; TFT 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% L/A LED BLU Penetration Rate by Application 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NoteBook LED BLU 1.5% 3.6% 13.5% 38.3% 52.4% 71.7% 91.4% 98.8% 99.4% 100.0% Monitor LED BLU 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% 2.2% 4.0% 7.4% 12.9% LCD TV LED BLU 0.3% 0.02% 0.3% 1.8% 4.8% 8.7% 9.4% 10.1% 10.7% 11.2% Source: DisplaySearch Q2’08 Backlight Lamps and Backlight Units Report Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 13
    • Penetration of LED BLU for NB PC Apple HP Dell Sony Fujitsu Toshiba ASUS Lenovo Panel Maker i.CMO,AUO ii.SEC CMO,AUO CMO TMD TMD TMD TMD TMD BLU Maker Kenmos/ Nano-Op Kenmos Kenmos Matsushita Stanley Stanley Stanley Stanley LED Maker TG(i), Nichia(ii) TG/Nichia TG/Nichia Nichia TG Nichia Nichia Nichia Size 13.3quot;, 15.4quot;, 17quot; 12.1quot; 13.3quot; 11.1quot;, 13.3quot; 8.9quot;, 12.1quot;14.1quot; 12.1quot;,13.3quot; 11.1quot;,12.1quot;,13.3quot; 13.3quot; Model Name MacBook Pro & Air 2710P XPS M1330 TX, SZ P8010,P1620,S6510 R500, M700 U1,U3,U6 X300 450,000 110% 400,000 90% 350,000 300,000 70% 000 units 250,000 50% 200,000 150,000 30% 100,000 10% 50,000 0 -10% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LED BLU (NB) 1,170 4,081 19,349 65,753 106,018 169,484 254,734 317,919 363,629 410,118 NB Total 79,772 113,452 142,895 171,718 202,487 236,272 278,715 321,855 365,657 410,118 Penetration Rate 1.5% 3.6% 13.5% 38.3% 52.4% 71.7% 91.4% 98.8% 99.4% 100.0% Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 14
    • LED NB Market Forecast by Size NB size smaller than 14” will dominate the demand of LED models corresponding to business customers with high mobility before 2009 and 14”+ ones will take over the primary market share of LED NB, especially 15.4” and 15.6” ones, to accelerate the penetration of LED BLU in NB market after 2009. 2007 2009 2015 Leading size of LED NB <14” ≧14” 110% 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% -10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ≧ 14quot; 0.1% 6.5% 28.3% 41.1% 59.9% 76.3% 81.9% 83.6% 82.6% <14quot; 3.5% 7.1% 9.9% 11.2% 11.8% 15.1% 16.8% 15.9% 17.4% Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 15
    • Cost Structure of 13.3” &“15.4”W LED BLU High-end Model 13.3” Slim V-cut LGP Turning Others Materials Overhead,SG&A, Subtotal Side-view LED 13.3” NB Film/2XBEF Package 9% 1% 5% LED module Extra-polishing Glass: 0.35mm Bezel & Frame 26% 6% Reflective sheet 5% Light Source Assembly 7% Diffusion sheet Flat LGP (Slim V-cut): 0.7mm 5% Lightguide plate 36% 15.4quot; Flat Dot LGP Mainstream Model Others Materials 15.4” NB Overhead,SG&A, Side-view LED Normal Glass: 0.5mm Subtotal 6% Package LED module 11% Bezel & Frame 34% 8% Turning Film/2XBEF 11% Light Source Flat LGP (Dots): 0.9mm Diffusion sheet Lightguide plate Assembly 6% Reflective sheet 10% 12% 2% Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 16
    • Cost Premium: CCFL vs. LED BLU = side-view LED = Top-view LED US$ 960 LEDs $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 210 LEDs CCFL 48 LEDs 60 LEDs LED $150 $100 $50 $0 13.3quot; 15.4quot; 22quot; 40quot; US$ Technology 13.3quot; 15.4quot; 22quot; 42quot; CCFL $10.6 $11.3 $18.4 $133.0 LED $23.8 $16.0 $40.0 $389.0 premium 124.5% 41.6% 117.4% 192.5% PS: 13.3quot; LED LGP: Slim V-cut; 15.4quot; LED LGP: Dots LGP Source: DisplaySearch Q2’08 Backlight Lamps and Backlight Units Report Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 17
    • Agenda •Benefit and Potential of LED in Notebook Market •Cost Analysis and LED NB Market Forecast •Key Factors to Enhance The Penetration of LED NB •Summary Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 18
    • Issues of LED BLU for NB (Slim or Normal) Still Chasing Slim Form Factor as Target? LGP Injection Flat Slim V-cut LGP= 0.6-0.9mm Normal Wedge LGP=0.6&1.2mm Flat Dots LGP=0.8-0.9mm LED Supply Injection yield rate Assembly Handling Side-view or top-view LED Inside Intensity= 1800mcd-2200mcd Optical performance LED suppliers pool Patent Issue of Phosphor Curtain Moiré Not uniform LED Light bar LED Number Reduction Thermal Solution Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 19
    • Power Saving of LED BLU for NB Current vs. Brightness 【Safety】 Brightness Relative low start up voltage to ensure operation safety 【Power Saving】 The relationship between LED intensity and 輝度 LED driving current is linear CCFL Lower current is operated to perform the same brightness level than CCFL model Power saving of 30-50% of CCFL power consumption 輝度電圧 Current Advantage 6 5 44% 41% 4 35% Power (w) 37% CCFL 3 LED@20mA 2 1 0 12.1quot; 13.3quot; 14.1quot; 15.4quot; Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 20
    • What will be thinner than this? Ultimate thinner profile performance of LED BLU--- An Envelope-packed PC LED Panel= Slim CCFL BLU glass+ LED BLU Thickness 50% WOW !! Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 21
    • Trend of Design Concept Current Next Phase Mainstream •Replace CCDFL Model Optical Films Speed up LED BLU •Lowest Cost Solution W-LED •High Brightness penetration Wedge LGP •Low Yield rate •Tough optical design LGP: Dots & Wedge type •Patent Constrain High-end Optical Films Optical Films LED Slow down LED BLU LED Flat LGP penetration •Thinnest & High-end BLU Flat LGP •Highest Cost Solution LGP: V-cut type Optical Films Mainstream LED LGP: V-cut type Speed up LED BLU Flat LGP Thinner & easier-made BLU penetration LGP: Dots type Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 22
    • Agenda •Benefit and Potential of LED in Notebook Market •Cost Analysis and LED NB Market Forecast •Key Factors to Enhance The Penetration of LED NB •Summary Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 23
    • Summary (I) Give your score card for the market penetration of LED BLU by application LED BLU Inside LED BLU Application NB MNT LCD TV Evalution Factors LED Amount 3 2 1 Power Saving 3 2 1 Color Gamut 1 1 3 Motion Blurless 2 2 3 High Contrast 1 1 3 Light Weight 3 1 1 Thin Profile 3 1 1 Cost Gap 3 2 1 Productivity 3 2 1 Attraction 3 1 2 Total Score 25 15 17 3: Excellent 2: Good 1: Fair Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 24
    • Summary (II) 3 “L” 3 ”M” Low CO2 More Green Low Pollution More Safety More Fun Low Temperature Work Hard For the “Green” Planet Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 25