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Прогноз венчурных инвесторов США на 2010 год
 

Прогноз венчурных инвесторов США на 2010 год

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    Прогноз венчурных инвесторов США на 2010 год Прогноз венчурных инвесторов США на 2010 год Presentation Transcript

    • Venture View: 2010 NVCA Predictions Survey Results
    • Venture View: 2010 VC Predictions Survey Results • Fourth Annual Predictions Survey of the NVCA • Conducted in Nov. 30 – Dec. 8, 2009 • More than 325 responses from VCs across the US • For more information – Contact: Emily Mendell (emendell@nvca.org) – Contact: Channa Brooks (channa@tenorcom.com)
    • In 2010, venture capital investment will: 11% 7% 9% 44% 29% Increase substantially >$25 BN Increase slightly $21-25 BN Decrease slightly $1 Decrease substantailly <$15 BN Remain unchanged from 2009
    • In 2010, our firm will invest in: 33% 49% 18% More portfolio companies Fewer portfolio companies The same number of portfolio companies
    • The percentage of deals outside our current geographic footprint in 2010 will: 20% 8 72% Increase Decrease Remain the Same
    • Investment in 2010 in the following sectors will: 54% Clean Tech 20% 26% 46% Internet 39% 15% 33% Media/Entertain. 37% 30% 32% Software 43% 25% 0% 20% 40% 60%
    • Investment in 2010 in the following sectors will: 30% Wireless 34% 37% 30% Biotech 36% 34% 29% Med Devices 38% 33% 5% Semiconductors 31% 64% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
    • Investment in 2010 in the following regions will: 70% China 17% 12% 58% India 26% 16% 20% Israel 53% 27% 15% Europe 40% 45% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
    • Investment in 2010 in the following stages will: 55% Growth Equity 30% 15% 53% Late 28% 19% 49% Expansion 32% 20% 45% Early 25% 30% 45% Seed 25% 31% 0% 20% 40% 60%
    • In 2010 the number of venture-backed IPOs will be: 45% 43.3% Mean: 26.32 Min: 5 Max: 120 40% Median: 25 35% 30% 26.1% 25% 20.4% 20% 15% 10.2 10% 5% 0% 0-19 20-29 30-50 >50
    • In 2010 the venture-backed acquisitions market will improve. In 2010 the # of venture- In 2010 the value of venture- backed acquisitions will: backed acquisitions will: 8% 1% 25% 11% 64% 91% Increase Decrease Same Increase Decrease Same
    • In 2010 firms resources are expected to remain largely unchanged. In 2010 the # of venture In 2010 the # of admin investors in our firm will: professionals in our firm will: 22% 12% 17% 15% 63% 71% Increase Decrease Same Increase Decrease Same
    • In 2010, venture funds raised on average will be: 10% 3% 87% Smaller Larger Same size
    • In 2010, the US venture industry will see foreign limited partners in: 25% 4 27% More Funds Fewer Funds Same Number of Funds
    • In the next five years, the number of firms in the venture industry will: 4% 6% 90% Shrink Expand Remain the same
    • In the next five years the venture capital industry will shrink by: 1% 0% 21% 20% 58% < 15% 16-30% 31-50% 51-70% >70%
    • What will you do differently in 2010? “We will find new mistakes to make “It's the global economy, stupid. Focus on 2010 will be Brazil's Skype that we have not made before; but all investments in the USA targeting customers moment.” - Simon Olson, in all things look pretty strong and the in the ROW (rest of the world).” – Trevor Loy, Partner, Draper Fisher team is optimistic.” - Bob More, General Partner, Flywheel Ventures Jurvetson, FIR Capital Brazil General Partner, Frazier Healthcare Ventures “The IPO market for VC backed companies will finally reopen in the US and several IPOs will reach $1 billion market capitalizations or more.” - Pascal Levensohn, Founder and Managing Partner, Levensohn Venture Partners “In 2010 we are going to “Take more companies public.” – Richard Carpe Per Diem - Sieze the Kramlich, General Partner/Co-Founder, NEA We will look for valuations to come into equilibrium and do day to make money for our LPs.” - Venky Ganesan, “Corporate venturing Relentlessly & w/ more transactions at that time.” Managing Director, Globespan & job creation funds.” seemingly undue – Jim Hale, Founding Partner, FTV Capital Partners - Thomas O. Gephart, precision reverse Capital “500K to 1M as early as possible in great teams = early stage Managing Partner, engineer the early exit investing.” - Steve Fredrick, General Partner, Grotech Ventures Ventana Capital to drive w/ great focus what founders do now “For 2010, we plan to broaden our “We will do more investment under better to grow their cos.” - geographic focus to include investments in environment for new deals.” - Masatoshi Ueno, Becca Braun, President, Europe.” - John Huntz, Executive Director, CEO/Technology, Yasuda Enterprise Development JumpStart Ventures Arcapita Ventures America Inc. our next fund and continue to invest in Since Sep08 we have focused on firms that can “We will raise reach breakeven on this round. In 2010 our consumer-facing Internet companies like Twitter and willingness to take finance risk will likely return.” - Zynga.” - Norman Fogelsong, General Partner, Bronson Lingamfelter, Associate, Rose Tech Institutional Venture Partners Ventures
    • What will you do differently in 2010? “We will fund growth more aggressively As start-up capital efficiency continues to improve, we will do more in 2010 as we come out of the earlier stage deals.” – John Backus, Managing Partner, New Atlantic recession.” – Don Rainey, General Ventures Partner, Grotech Ventures “With our new $1.2Bn NVP XI fund, we plan “2010 will likely mark the renewal of Corporate Venture Capital to continue our expansion along 3 vectors: 1. as corporations will rediscover the value of tapping external Stages (early & late)2. Regions and 3. innovation.” - Bernard Slede, Portfolio Manager, HP Corporate Sectors.” - Sergio Monsalve, Principal, NVP Venture Capital “More reserve capacity per deal and less deals per fund; “Hopefully nothing. We're rockin' here at also build broader syndicate up front at initial Catamount.” - Jed Smith, Managing Director, investment.” - George Arida, Managing Director, Venture Catamount Ventures Investors LLC “Work harder, maintain “Expect to see us be more aggressive high standards, and see “We will increase our investment pace seeding new opportunities.” - Michael more companies.” - because we believe this a great time to Greeley, General Partner, Flybridge C.W. Newhall, General invest - innovation and strong companies Capital Partners Partner, Co-Founder, abound!” - Jeanne M Sullivan, General NEA Partner, StarVest Partners L.P. ctually spend meaningful time with investment bankers, again.” - Gerry Langeler, Managing Director, OVP Venture Partn “Move to accelerate the “Embrace more development of investment “The makeup of seed syndicates will evolve in 2010, as universities into our seed candidates and portfolio more traditional venture capitalists seek earlier access stage model.” - Rudy companies.” - Greg Knudson,to capital-efficient deals.” - Christine Herron, Principal, Garza, Managing Partner, Director, Rocket Ventures First Round Capital G51 Capital
    • Historical Data for the Venture Industry
    • Venture Capital Fundraising 1997-2009 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 1997 1998 1999 Source: Thomson Reuters/NVCA 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200 BN Raised 18.1 30.6 58.2 106.6 38.0 3.8 10.6 19.2 28.9 31.9 36
    • Venture Capital Investment 1997-2009 $120 $101 $100 $ Billions Invested $80 $52 $60 $39 $40 $31 $28 $26 $20 $21 $19 $22 $23 $14 $20 $0 2004 2006 2007 2008 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers/National Venture Capital Association MoneyTree™ Report, Data: Thomson Reuters
    • Venture Capital Exits 1997-2009 700 M&A IPO 600 500 Number of Issues 400 300 200 100 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Thomson Reuters/National Venture Capital Association M&A 164 209 240 317 353 319 285 348 350 375 378 IPO 136 77 260 264 41 24 29 93 56 57 86