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Futures thinking and learning



I began an exploration of futures thinking and futures studies in 2005, and began a related, if undefined, study of learning as a form of cultural expression in 2006. This presentation was adapted and ...

I began an exploration of futures thinking and futures studies in 2005, and began a related, if undefined, study of learning as a form of cultural expression in 2006. This presentation was adapted and updated based on an early mash-up of these interests.



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Futures thinking and learning Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Futures Thinking and Learning Application and Imagination Carmen Tschofen Hormel Foundation Gifted and Talented Education Symposium tschofen@email.com June 16, 2010
  • 2. “The future has arrived... ...it’s just not evenly distributed.” ~William Gibson
  • 3. Overton Window S.O.P Outrageous Optimal Outdated Overton Window (of Political Possibilities) Leaders and/or thought-leaders frame the acceptable debate or ambition. ~Mackinac Center for Public Policy
  • 4. Understanding change (or not) • Change patterns of unprecedented magnitude • Severe lag in a conceptual grasp of change, and in cognitive and affective understanding • Change fatigue
  • 5. Complexity • “[These changes] demand something more than mere behavior, the acquisition of specific skills, or the mastery of particular knowledge. They make demands on our minds, on how we know, on the complexity of our consciousness.” ~ Robert Kegan “In Over Our Heads: The mental demands of modern life,” 1995
  • 6. Perceptions of time • Some people are able to “live in future time zones” ~Philip Zimbardo and John Boyd, “The Time Paradox,” 2007 • “Temponormativity”
  • 7. Futures Thinking Tools, approaches, worldviews • Present choices • Alternative futures • Connectedness • Emergence
  • 8. “Seeing through” “...the [expanding] types of futures study … are those that are located firmly in our present consciousness and in the type of critical vision that “sees through” the inherited meanings, traditions, values, paradigms, myths, metaphors, concepts and guiding images of various kinds that are embedded in everyday language...” ~ Ron Reed/Noel Gough, “Curriculum Visions,” 2002
  • 9. Trend: Rapid/Accelerating Change http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ILQrUrEWe8&feature=related
  • 10. Trend: Information abundance http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ECAVxbfsfc
  • 11. Trends collision http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wp3m1vg06Q
  • 12. Emerging Issues •What “it” means •How we talk about it
  • 13. Emerging issue: Personalization • Is not differentiation • Is not individualized, social or personal learning • Has a moral purpose: emancipation of the learner “May conflict with profound, longstanding social process.. [and] runs up against the strengths of beliefs held especially by teachers about traditional modes of knowledge transmission.” ~ Organization for Economic Co- Operation and Development, 2007
  • 14. Alternative paths
  • 15. Learning conversations Diego Leal Fonseca on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndHLL8l3ZFw
  • 16. Alternative time frames John Moravec and Pekka Ihanainen, “Alternatives to temponormative pedagogy” http://www.educationfutures.com
  • 17. Emerging issue: Decentralization • Capacity development • Process-oriented and/or geographic/structural • “Proposals for decentralization usually threaten those persons and groups who benefit from the current governance structures.” (UNESCO, 1999) • Going beyond: disintermediation and disaggregation
  • 18. Disintermediation Photos: Patrick Charles, huggingthecoast and roadsidepictures on Flickr
  • 19. “Piggly Wiggly” learning...
  • 20. Emerging issue: Technology Fundamental “futures thinking” errors • Presentism: New tools for usual tasks • Sunk investment: Using tools, ignoring affordances “Technology [should not be] a band-aid to keep kids in a building while still exposing them to the world.” ~ Jamias Cascio
  • 21. Play • Decentralized and personal learning most resembles... play. Patterns, rhythms, seeking and joining. • Things that make us most human in a technological world: play, intuition, imagination, futures thinking capacity. John Seely Brown- Reimagining Dewey
  • 22. Implications • For gifted kids • For teachers • For parents “You don’t adapt this culture [of education], you replace it… and it isn’t pretty... If you ask people to change, they simply change how they label [what they’re doing].” ~ Dr. Richard Elmore, Harvard University
  • 23. Examples: Futures approaches STEEP • Social • Technical • Environmental • Economic • Political Integral Futures or Causal Layered Analysis • litany • social causes • discourse/worldview • myth/metaphor
  • 24. Examples: Futures methods Tension pairs/ quadrants Scenarios NA Futures Wiki Opening Education: 2020 and beyond Narratives Wheels/Maps Education Futures KnowledgeWorks Foundation
  • 25. Examples: Potential futures What happens when... • Students don’t have to be in your classroom • Learners have integrated “6th sense” and/or knowledge-base devices • Learners’ (and parents’) perceptions of value or convenience of formal education drop as costs spiral
  • 26. Learning Futures: Resources • 2020 Forecast: Creating the Future of Learning • The Future of Thinking: Learning Institutions in a Digital Age (MacArthur Foundation, 2010) • Futurelab: Innovation in Education • Beyond Current Horizons: Education Beyond 2025
  • 27. Carmen Tschofen Robbinsdale, Minnesota tschofen@email.com Twitter: ctscho Skype: ctschof