The Needed Conceptual and Operative Evolution of the Global Agro-Productive System
The Needed Conceptual and OperativeEvolution of the Global Agro-Productive System “From the analysis of the challenge to a solution of it” Rosario, Argentina, Mercosoja 2011 Ing. Agr. Ms. of Sc. Roberto A. Peiretti Miembro CD de AAPRESID – Ex Presidente de CAAPAS firstname.lastname@example.org
It moved from 8 millons to one Billion of Persons in 97 CENTURIES but from 6 to 7 billions (one billion increase) in only 13 years. Such a growth peace transformed the demand growth for AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS ¡¡
Brief consideration of the Demand Growth for Agricultural Products
A high proportion of the nowadays human population if reflected in this picture ¡¡ As soon as these persons improve their incomes, they automatically migrate to higher protein consumption what in everyday reality MEANS …..
….a migration of the consunption from rice (hydrocarbons) to hamburgers (proteins) ¡¡ Source Pict Lester R Brown WorldWatch Institute
This behavior (absolutely hamanitarian, understandable and even absolutellydesirable) the trend followed in the past and projected for the near future, can be clearly seen
While considering the percapita consumption of grains, feeds proteins ( to produce animal proteinsbasically), the sceanrio pointed in the two previous slides, can be clearly seen. To this demands, latelly, a new one originated on the biofuels production shows up very strongly. Per cápita indexes 2006=100 Fuente : FAO, USDA y Goldman & Sachs Commodities Research - Gentileza de NOVITAS S.A. www.novitas.com.ar
Brief analysis of the past evolution of the agricultral supply (last forty years) andconsideration of the future projection of it.
THE PASTDuring the last 40 years, the supply was able to follow (satisfy) the demand by a mechanism into which mostly the demand tractions the supply and not the other way. CEREALES: DIFERENCIAS ENTRE LA PRODUCCION Y EL CONSUMO MUNDIAL 2200 2100 PRODUCCION 50 2000 CONSUMO -17 51 54 39 7 -67 1900 -14 53 38 1800 -20 -30 -85 -93(mill. de tons.) 1700 80 91 54 -5 -37 -41 -10 -9 1600 57 -43 1500 24 -78 55 1400 69 -41 -5 -21 25 1300 23 -2 27 13 1200 1100 24 30 -33 30 -16 -29 1000 900 66/67 67/68 68/69 69/70 70/71 71/72 72/73 73/74 74/75 75/76 76/77 77/78 78/79 79/80 80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 Fuente: USDA, Junio 2007 Nóvitas S.A.
THE FUTUREDuring the present century the population may raise up to 9 to 10billions persons. Also the estimations are saying that for the same period we may need somewhere double the actual agricultural outputs ¡¡We will have to move from more than two billions tons of grains to around four billions which approximatelly means to double the volume of the actual production¡¡
Been fully aware of this realities and projections and also with an extremely high level of commitment assumed in front of such a challenge, Dr. Norman Borlaug Nobel Peace prize 1970 stated what he named “The greater human challenge for the XXI century” Source: Roberto Peiretti 2005
“We ought to develop the capacity to satisfy human demands for agricultural outputs(basically food for humans) and at the same time achieving the goal in such a way that we can keep the resources needed to produce them in good shape” Source: Dr. N Borlaug Personal Communication 2005
For the past 10.000 years –since the origin of agriculture- the process was based in what we can call the“Tillage Paradigm”. Even this paradigm was useful to feed humanity for 100 centuries (which is is not a minor merit, asset and extremely relevant achievement), its utilization also caused strong negative impacts and externalities that we must learn how to avoid in the future….. Source: Roberto Peiretti-AAPRESID 2011
Considering the already achieved level of knowledge and degree of development in practiceof the No Till System in certain parts of the world, it becomen not easy to accept than 90 % of the global agriculture nowadays kept pillared on theold and already obsolete “Tillage Paradigm” which endeed is the main factor and carries the largestresponsability for the erosion and degradation that the soils in particular and the agro-ecosystems ingeneral keep suffering at the present as we will be able to observe on next pictures …..
EE UU de Norte América Pict Credit to Dr. Donald Reicosky USA
Europa 2009 ¡¡Pict Credit to Dr Gottlieb Basch ECAF
Water Soil Erosionmainly originated by soil tillage
Water Soil Erosionmainly originated by soil tillage Picts credit to Luis Cubilas y Erni Schlindwein
Picts credit to Luis Cubilas y Erni Schlindwein
EEUU South Dakota 1934Wind Soil Erosion caused by tillage
Year 2002 With this attitudes, human been looks like kicking not only two times (but several times) the same stone”
En cases like those we just considered, 10 to 50 tons of soils (or even more) are lost per each ton of grain produced.ENDEED A COST that humanity can not keep paying any longer¡¡¡
If from now in more the INTELLIGENCE ANDCOMMON SENCE WILL BE OUR ROAD MARKS AT DEVELOPING THE AGRICULTURAL PROCESS.. …… WE WILL OUGHT TO INMEDIATELLYCHANGE THE WAY WE UNDERSTAND AND CARRY OUT THE AGRICULTRAL PROCESS AND MANAGEMENT OF OUR AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS ¡¡ …hence we can ask oursekves …….
…… how are going to proceed to enlarge the agricultural production in a sustainablefashion and in a sufficient magnitude to be able to properly provide and satisfy the future human demand ??
To achieve this goal, first of all we ought to abandon the agricultural model based on tillage and alsofind a proper combination between the only two mechanisms so far known to enlarge theagricultral production and global supply of agricultral products …. namelly …
..to move and expand the agricultural boundaries….
Related to this issues what are telling us the analysis of the past and the projections for the future ….?
The enlargement of total production by means of the productivity growth ( achieved within a sustainable frame), undoubtedly must be the road to follow prioritizing it as much as possible because ….. … the lower the need to expand into new area and natural forests that we like to keep as much as possible after feeding humanity ¡¡¡ …. The higher the productivity achieved in a sustainable fashion at managing the agro-ecosystems in use …. Fuente: Roberto Peiretti 2011
Unfortunatelly and frequently due to a lack of a proper level of comprehension, consideration and understanding of the global scenario and human needs so far analyzed and discussed, the real and true possibility of improve and enlarge the gloal agricultural production provision obtained by applying the New Agricultral Model based on the Maximun Possible Increase of a Sustainable production and productivity.Some examples of this miscomprehension and undesirable behaviours and rules are: ….1.)The“Precautionary Principle implemented by the EU”. Because of this,GMO´s are strognly restricted and also trade barriers and limitations are imposed. 2.) Subsidization policies also harm the global production andtrade by distorting the markets. 3.) Non appropriate consumers education about the true and real limitations of the gloobal agricultural system. Based on miths and even “seen ghosts”, frequently they impose “theirconcerns” by imposing their wishes to the retailors that in turn press over the producers (and pretend to oblige) to follow even “nonsense and unreallistic protocols” to the production and trade process. Theseattitudes must be changed if we are to succeed at achieving the absolutelly needed improvement and evolution of the global farming system ¡¡¡
The New Agricultural Paradigm No Till, MOSHPPA (Modern Sustainable Highly Productive and Profitable Agricultural Model), and Biotechnology represents only some of the mega-constituencies of the model that allows and materialize in reality a largely more evolved, rational, and intelligent utilization of the agro-ecosystems. The general strategy tends to MAXIMIZE the direct positive impacts and externalities and at the same time MINIMIZE the negative impacts and externalities.
The “Complete Avoidance of Soil Tillage” and the achievement of a “Soil Covered by MOG –Plant Material Other than Grains” along with the adoption of the principle of “ Soil Nutrition rather thancrop fertilization”, and a proper “Rotational Sequence of Crops”; can be considered as the “key pillars and factors” that allowed us to evolve towards a Better Farming System ¡¡¡ Source: FREPASIDIAS Paraguay 2009
The Need to Gain Carbon into SoilTillage flashes flames of fire burning OM and C ! By any mean we ought to avoid tillage¡¡ Gaining Carbon Losing Carbon Picts Credit to Dr Donald Reicosky Text R Peiretti
Fortunately in some parts of the world things have started to change migrating the agriculturalprocess toward the New Paradigm and the trend steadely keeps growing year after year. Source: Roberto Peiretti 2011
An exampleNo Tilled Soybean Source: Roberto Peiretti 2011
Large ampunts of crop residues = well covered soils = Organic Matter increase = Carbonsequestration = increase of load and activity of soil microbiology and biota = larger nutrient cycling = to … “ an improoved and better crop environment and system functioning” Source: Roberto Peiretti 2011
GMO (RR soy in this case) progressing into oats as a cover crop Source: Roberto Peiretti 2011
Great crop development Source: Roberto Peiretti 2011
The results are largelly satisfactory, but, still we can ask to ourselves ... Source: G Carballal Text Roberto Peiretti 2011
….where are located the limits to groth by sustainable PRODUCTIVITY ??
ARGENTINANo Till and MOSHPPA adoption patterns The certification of the process Source: Roberto Peiretti 2010
Argentina (No Till adoption process in % of the country cultivated area – all extensive crops-). It is equivalent to 23 millons of hectares under No Till out of the total 30 millions cultivated
Some of theOustanding Bennefits Achieved Source: Roberto Peiretti 2010
Argentina – Area Cultivada en Millones de Has y Producción de todos los granos enmillones de TN M Reg Se triplicó la producción total en veinte años Siembra Directa- Biotecnología AMSAP Productividad Sustentable
At the present time and with the evidences we already have, we can consider that theNo Till and the MOSHPA Model Principles are not only useful to.. “ increase PRODUCTIVITY and PROFIT avoiding further degradation” but also useful to “ repair some of the damages caused on the past ” which after all means to reach a BEYOND SUSTAINABILITY STAGE Source: Roberto Peiretti 2011
1998 Starting PointConvent Plough based Agriculture 2004 Goal Achieved ¡¡ by applying No Till andSource: Roberto Peiretti 2005 MOSHPA Model Principles
As a final thought related to this vital issues for humanity all, it appears as extremely appropriate not to forget that …..
… the achievement of a more productive, profitable andsustainable agriculture constitute goals that can be reached; so ….…. I encourage and invite all of you to double our efforts to suceed at this purpose from which the future of our civilization as we know it nowadays, strongly depends.¡¡ Thank You Very Much for your Kind Attention.