Delight Your Customers: The #noestimates Way

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Delight Your Customers: The #noestimates Way

  1. 1. Delight Your Customers: Insanity: doing the same thing over and Over again and expecting different results. -Albert Einstein The #noestimates Way Troy Tuttle, KCP Principal Consultant, Owner KanFlow.com troy@kanflow.com @troytuttle Rate This Talk! http://spkr8.com/t/31701
  2. 2. Before Lean Software Existed … (In my mind anyway)
  3. 3. What is this #noestimates Thing? #noestimates means different things to different people It started as a conversation on Twitter The #noestimates topic sparked a renewed interest in the original promise of Agile
  4. 4. 1st Rule of #noestimates: If estimation works for your team or your organization, Keep Calm and Carry On.
  5. 5. “Estimates are a function of duration and uncertainty. Since we don't like uncertainty, we convert it simply to duration. “ -Jabe Bloom (@cyetain) #lkna14
  6. 6. Estimation Challenges “Ranges that are given as +/– a constant time or constant percent are missing the problem’s exponential nature.” Actual durations exceeded estimates by an average 2.2 times. Little’s statistical analysis compared developer’s estimates to the actual task durations. (for example: estimate was 4 hours, it actually took 7 hours) “Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty” IEEE Software, May/June 2006 -Todd Little “It’s not just good enough to double the initial estimate— some teams have found it appropriate to multiply by 3, 4, or even Pi.”
  7. 7. A manager’s response…
  8. 8. The Estimation Game The Software Estimation Game goes something like this: Developer: Sure! Looks like it should take about 1 week. Manager: Joe, would you give me an estimate of how long feature X will take? -- 2 weeks later, feature “X” is completed. -- Manager: Um, Yeah. Joe, it took twice as long as your estimate. I told management it would take 1 week. If this happens again, it will require overtime. Developer: Ok, I understand. Manager: Joe, would you give me an estimate of how long feature Z will take? Developer: Sure! It should take about 3 weeks. -- 3 weeks later, feature “Z” is completed. -- Manager: Great job Joe! Now were making progress!
  9. 9. The Estimation Game Theoretical Task Completion Time Donald Reinertsen, Managing the Design Factory Duration Due Date Average Actual Task Completion Time Duration Due Date Average “Expanding Work”
  10. 10. Parkinson’s Law Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion
  11. 11. Nature of Knowledge Work Manufacturing = repeatable processes Product Development = one time processes One-time processes are non-deterministic in nature
  12. 12. Nature of Knowledge Work Deterministic Approach Project Start Knowledge “Complete” Planned Activity Non-deterministic Reality Project Start Knowledge “Complete”? What Customer Really WantsBetter Knowledge Project Managers in the middle, pulling out their hair
  13. 13. Nature of Knowledge Work Idea Analysis Design Build (Dev) Test “Design” Phases “Execute” Phases Idea Analysis Design Build (Dev) Test Production “Design” Phases “Execute” Phases
  14. 14. What happens when we estimate? Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
  15. 15. Story Points and Velocity are abstractions that insulate the team and the business from reality “Yippie! Our Velocity was 25 story points the last sprint. Let’s go celebrate!”
  16. 16. To Story Point or Not to Story Point X X X X XX X X ?
  17. 17. To Story Point or Not to Story Point @duarte_vasco -Vasco Duarte http://bit.ly/vasco_blog
  18. 18. The #noestimates Playbook • Dedicated and stable teams • Fix time and cost constraints • Right size user stories • Iterate and deliver frequently • Drip Feed or Investment Funding • Track lead time and throughput • Speak the language of the business (don’t use terms from physics) • Don’t use bullet points in your slides
  19. 19. The #noestimates Playbook Input Q Design Develop Test Done1 2 1 3 12 9 7 8 6 4 5 Lead Time Throughput 10 14 days from this point 5 stories per week Upstream Planning 1. Prioritize 2. Analyze S S S S SS S S S S
  20. 20. The #noestimates Playbook If we start a new story today, we expect to complete it in: Probabilistic Forecasting <= 5 days (50th percentile) <= 8 days (85th percentile) <= 13 days (95th percentile)
  21. 21. Delight Your Customers: Insanity: doing the same thing over and Over again and expecting different results. -Albert Einstein The #noestimates Way Troy Tuttle, KCP Principal Consultant, Owner KanFlow.com troy@kanflow.com @troytuttle Rate This Talk! http://spkr8.com/t/31701

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