quot;I think the majority of mainstream vendors — and their
customers — have failed to recognize the pace and extent of
change because they underestimate the weight of their own
inertia. They acknowledge the need for change, but they’re
also conscious of the disruption and pain required to
embrace it. So they act slowly and tentatively, hoping that if
they wait long enough something will happen to make the
change easier. What actually happens is that waiting makes
the change even more painful, and they’ll end up forced into
it anyway by the competitive pressure from others who had
the foresight or the opportunity to act when they chose not
to.quot; - Phil Wainewright, April 11, 2006
The 80 Year Rule
Rule of thumb: First 40 years of any technology is not that interesting; all the most incredible stuff happens in the next forty.
The Linear Time Rule
We think that time is linear. It isn't. We will experience the last hundred years of developments in the next 20. Technology (ALL technologies) are accelerating on a
double exponential curve. We're approaching the knee of that curve now.
First internet connection between three computers at DARPA
Mainframes and mini-computers were centrally managed; data and applications at the center, terminals at the edge
party is over; IPO window is closed; NASDAQ falls off a cliff;
VC funding dries up; innovation stops; internet businesses (B2B) keep going and making things efﬁcient; 95% of the ASPs from the ﬁrst round all die off - too few
customers, too expensive infrastructure
We start to see some interesting thaw in the nuclear winter; cool startups; interesting things happening on the web again. But then people start saying some things
that we don't really want to hear...
quot;The end of the enterprise
quot;Light, fast, cheap the new way
quot;Enterprise software vendors
ripe for disruptionquot;
Gaming company in Vancouver fails; casts around for something to do with its technology; asks users to help it ﬁgure that out; users like the photo sharing aspect
and drive it in that direction; soon, they will have 70 million photos and be bought out for $35M
Web 2.0 conference
Two guys start a site intended for voyeurs. [Show email from Paul's slideshow,] Kleiner and Sequoia pour $30M into the thing with absolutely no idea how they will
make their money back and they're freaking out. Once it takes off, it eats bandwidth at horrendous expense every month, up to $1M/month
Web 2.0 Conference (Year 2)
And EVERYBODY notices.
This is a big deal; the press hits hard; O'Reilly releases his infamous Web 2.0 Design Patterns essay on the internet
“...we must act quickly and decisively...The
next sea change is upon us.” - Bill Gates,
Microsoft releases quot;services wavequot; memo; says that Web 2.0 is the next wave and that the entire company must turn on a dime as it did 11 years ago and shift
towards this quot;servicesquot; delivery model
quot;We believe the ﬁrst ten years (1995-2005)
of commercial internet were a warm up act
for what is about to happenquot;
- Morgan Stanley
By the end of 2005, eBay has conducted 8 BILLION API based web service transactions
Broadband penetration hits
30% in the US market
the Enterprise Software market is in chaos, buffeted by many different forces and change is accelerating. **Use Software 2006 and Sandhill Group documents to
articulate the landscape
50 million blogs exist - some
of them HAVE to be good
Software 2006 conference:
• Software 2006 happens - trumpets Web 2.0 as a fundamental disruptive force in the enterprise
•• Ray Lane, former Oracle executive and now a venture capitalist with Kleiner Perkins Cauﬁeld, spoke at the same conference where he stated categorically:
“Web 2.0 will get really proﬁtable when it is used in an enterprise context” – M.R. Rangaswami
“There are two paths to long-term survival for todayʼs enterprise software companies. They problem is that very few companies are heading in the right
direction...There is a new kind of software Darwinism going on. The harsh reality is that over the next 5 to 10 years, most of todayʼs software providers will not fare
very well. The only way for enterprise software suppliers to survive this wave of industry evolution is to innovate and/or dominate. And 2006 is the year to get
- Ray Lane, Software 2006.
He said the industry is undergoing a quot;quiet but dramatic revolution,quot; driven by SaaS, open source and SOA architecture. According to a survey of CIOs by
McKinsey & Company in partnership with the Sand Hill Group, software will go from 30 percent of the IT spend this year to 35 percent in 2008. A second theme is
Web 2.0 meets the enterprise. quot;Web 2.0 will really get proﬁtable when it is used in an enterprise context,quot; Rangaswami said. The ﬁnal theme: Creating a healthy
ecosystem, in which the software industry prospers. That's more wishful thinking than a theme.
Web 2.0 for the Enterprise: “Web 2.0 for the Enterprise. As in previous innovation cycles, whenever multiple point capabilities converge – such as wireless,
pervasive broadband, and online collaboration – many new applications become possible. In these cases, consumers tend to adopt the new services and
products before the enterprise, but in the end the enterprise market is usually far larger and more proﬁtable. We believe that much of the hype around “Web 2.0”
for consumers – with its rapid innovation in content (e.g., blogs, wikis, user editing and tagging), tools like search, and services like content hosting –heralds a
much larger opportunity to put these innovations to work in the enterprise.”
quot;“The old days are not coming back, and it
will never be the same – the landscape is
shifting...Business models that include
spending 50 to 60 percent of revenues on
sales and marketing or 25 percent on
research and development...are over.”
$1 million each
Platt/MS: 5 guys x $1M each building little mashups
quot;“Suppliers are no longer in control, and
buyers are not happy with the products,
services and relationships they have with the
- McKinsey Report
“Spot the Dinosaur” runs in
The Economist, April 1, 2006
Microsoft makes more than half of its $40B/yr from Windows and Ofﬁce = $20B+
They have 2M subscribes to XBox Live [should I list XBox Live as across multiple devices?]
MSN has captured quot;a small share of the roughly $10 billion online advertising market.quot;
[It's $10B at this point? Seems low.]
There are only three ways to get paid:
Microsoft commits $7.3B in 2007 for R&D in SaaS, Search, and all other initiatives
quot;The World's Information is
Getting Organized and
Monetizedquot; - Mary Meeker,
Meeker: Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley: The State of the Internet Part 3
* Overview of State of the internet can be summarized in this sentence: quot;The World's Information is Getting Organized and Monetizedquot;
* Powerpoint can be found here
o The Top 5 companies are worth 46% more now than they were worth in the Year 2000: The Top 5 Global Internet Market Leaders have gone from $2B market value (pre 2000) to $178B (peak in
2000) to $32B (trough in 2002) and all the way back up to $259B (Nov 2006), which is 46% higher than their last peak.
o It's tough to succeed: ~2% of technology companies have created ~100% of net wealth; on average, 2 companies have 1000% gains per year
o Users / Usage — Yahoo! has base of 418MM+ unique monthly
visitors (+19% Y/Y growth)
o Customer Acquisition — Google now has 500,000 - 1M advertisers and they're making them more money all the time through more effective targeting and metrics.
o Commerce / Payments — PayPal has 123MM accounts, (+41% Y/Y,
CQ3); Shopping.com has 40MM+ products in 325+ categories
o Advertising — 8% of total US advertising online in 2006E growing to
estimated 13%+ within 5 years - Google + Yahoo! = key drivers +
o Signiﬁcant targeting / conversion improvements (related
to technology improvements + data leverage) — could bolster annual
global revenue per unique user of $9 for Google (+42% Y/Y) and $10 for
Yahoo! (+29% Y/Y) 2-3x in next 5 years
o Personalization — Recommendation engines improve monetization
– examples include Amazon.com + Yahoo! Music
o Recommendations systems getting better.
+ [As pointed out in The Long Tail, as you address more niches, you get more noise (stuff you don't want) and the way to sift through that noise is with ﬁlters such as recommendation systems. As
the volume of potential purchases, songs, websites, etc. increase, the way to ﬁnd what you want is through better ﬁltering and recommendation systems.
o Communications/Telephony: Skype would rank #3 in the world for telecom providers (behind China Mobile and Vodafone). It may still have the title of quot;fastest product ramp in historyquot;. Skype carries
approximately 7% of all global cross-border calls and that should double in the next year or two.
o Video: It is estimated that approximately 60% of internet trafﬁc may be Peer to peer ﬁlesharing of quot;unmonetizedquot; video (read that as it could be illegal or it could be legal but just not have an economic
transaction attached to it.)
o quot;Localquot; is getting to be important: Buying your software from Russia or China might be okay, but if you want to buy bagels, you need to ﬁnd the bagel shop near your house. Google and eBay local
classiﬁeds continue to expand.
o Communities are exploding: Myspace, YouTube, Flickr, CyWorld are all exploding. Blogs continue to double every 7 months (now at about 57M blogs)
+ [I like Matt Mullenwegg's quote on Technorati (the blog search engine): quot;There are over 50 million blogs. SOME of them have to be good!quot;]
+ [See further down for the interview with Hyun-Oh Yoo from CyWorld - they're awesome!]
o Social media is at the very beginning of the curve
+ [Digg, Reddit, NowPublic, and many more sites are springing up to take advantage of people's energy and desire to be involved in reporting the news (and fact-checking on the major news sites.]
o Mobile continues to ramp up quickly. The shocking statistics from the presentation included American Idol receiving 63M votes (via mobiles + internet) in the ﬁnal 4 hour round.
+ [I'm not sure which is more shocking. That 63M people were watching that ridiculous show or that 63M people were able to vote using a system that didn't crash. I think they're equally
+ [I'm also intrigued by this voting thing on phones. We're starting to see some interesting uses of phones that ﬁt the form factor: GPS-enabled mapping, instant messaging, voting.]
+ [For another interesting company to look at in this area, a friend of mine, John Merrells, has launched Embrace Mobile, which will specialize in very focused mobile applications that can be run
* User Generated Content based sites have moved into the top 15 global websites (based on number of unique visitors per month). Wikipedia, MySpace, and YouTube drove those numbers.
o [That means that the principle quot;users can (and will) generate more content at the edge than you can at the center.quot;]
o [Some other interesting notes are that the growth rates of Wikipedia (110% y/y), Myspace (303% y/y) and YouTube (2662% y/y) mean that by next year, they will likely dominate the list.]
o [Another interesting side note is that the only other site on the list with a relatively high growth rate is Apple at 38% y/y. I would think that bodes well for their continued success selling hardware and
* North America is becoming less dominant on the internet: NA will go from 36% of users in 2000 to 20% of the internet in 2007.
* Broadband penetration has ﬁnally hit the 25-30% quot;sweet spotquot;
o [Who deﬁned this as the sweet spot?]
o [Does this mean that this is a tipping point that enables new services to be built upon it?]
o [In case Americans feel smug about this, their broadband penetration should be compared to Korea which is at 60-70%]
* Global Mobile 2.5G/3G penetration has hit the 30-35% quot;sweet spotquot;
o [Again, what does that mean? They didn't really explain that.]
* Global Internet Thesis: We have had 10-15% user growth this year; 20-30% usage growth (time/pages/etc.); and an increase of 30%+ in monetization.
* Online text/music/video - paths to monetization:
+ Newsgroups (usenet) turned into Yahoo Directory which led to $$$
# [I don't understand that transition. I don't get how Usenet converted to Yahoo Directory...]
Web 2.0 Summit 2006
Web 2.0 Summit 2006 / Summary 100,000 foot view
by Troy Angrignon on Mon 20 Nov 2006 12:26 PM PST
Here are my summary thoughts on the 3 day Web 2.0 Summit 2006 in SF, CA
There were some overall themes that seemed to prevail in the sessions I attended and I'm going to try to capture them here in no particular sequence. It's one thing to have sat in all the sessions or to review
all of the notes but another to reﬂect on all that was said and see what can be summarized from it all.
* Web 2.0 is real. In fact, it's even more important than when Microsoft had their epiphany about the internet ten years ago.
* We're at the beginning of the ramp for things like social media and mobile;
* This year, we grew users 10-15%, usage 20-30%, and monetization 30+% and that looks like it will continue;
* video has surpassed text everywhere all the time;
* Internet Advertising is still under-represented so ad spend will shift from 8% of the total spend to about 15% of the total spend and will make this transition very quickly.
* It's now possible to build an entirely virtual company by outsourcing every single component of it;
* Application development speed continues to leap ahead radically;
* ﬁnd and go towards the large white spaces;
* there is lots of capital out there; ideas and good teams are the limiters; there's no excuse for not raising money right now;
* web services and mashups are going to explode;
* ﬁnd passionate users, let them drive your products and your business;
* In fact, let them help you BUILD your product if possible;
* Build your products so that people either love them or hate them; don't aim for the zone of mediocrity.
* LOVE your users;
* To keep good people, ensure they're passionate about what they're doing, give them the ability to somewhat drive their (and your) success and innovation; engage them in decisions;
* Realize that you can build things now collaboratively across the web in ways that were not possible before;
* Do something bold that changes the game:
o Goldcorp gave up their sacred data and $500K to make $3.4B in revenues
o Bob Parsons cancelled the GoDaddy.com IPO because the analysts were too annoying;
o Amazon wants to start running your businesses because frankly, they can do it better, cheaper, and faster than you can by a factor of 100x.
* the better your product, the less you have to use traditional marketing;
* focus on niches;
* we're at the beginning of the curve on immersive environments and they will play a larger and larger part in our economy;
* help people make money on top of your platform;
* Watch the cashﬂow (daily!); it's more important than proﬁts (for a smaller company);
* Making money is better (and way more important) than ﬁnding investors
* Adapt quickly
* Create passionate users who will help you create your business
* Listen to yourself; listen to your customers; don't listen to analysts; never listen to the doubters.
* measure what counts but remember that quot;not everything that counts can
be measured, nor does everything that can be measured count.quot; (be
careful what you measure);
* operational excellence can be a a defensible long-term strategy, and signiﬁcant point of differentiation; (Microsoft, Amazon, Fedex)
* Proﬁt or size?
o Most people: make it proﬁtable right off the bat; then build with revenue as fast as possible;
o Bezos: go for size!
* On ﬁnding the next opportunity:
o Calcanis/Dmitry: stay focused on your original business!
o Bezos: Always keep exploring down dark tunnels for new business opportunities!
* ecosystems beat platforms beat applications beat features;
* there was a lot of contradiction regarding how companies should or should not start small. I think it shows that there is no right answer. There will be a plethora of small companies and others will choose
to get the funding to get big fast as we did in Bubble 1.0;
Overall, the three days were very worthwhile. I met some fantastic people and am looking forward to attending the Web 2.0 Expo in April 2007 that will focus much more heavily on the tactical details of Web
UK Mobile telco launches
quot;Open Gardenquot; and ﬁxed rate
Major milestone: Major British mobile tel provider moves from walled garden and pay-per-use pricing to quot;open gardensquot; and ﬂat-rate internet access. Skype's
Niklas Zennstrom says 3g broadband quot;has now arrived.quot;
by Troy Angrignon on Mon 20 Nov 2006 01:15 PM PST
Until now, the mobile phone networks have been walled gardens with pay-per-use data plans and in order to build a telephone application, you had to customize it
for every phone and every model and every carrier. It has been frankly a nightmare and has even prompted Michael Arrington to comment at The New New
Internet conference in Virginia this summer that companies quot;shouldn't bother with mobile in the U.S. - it's a fragmented nightmare and only SMS works properly
and that's just barely.quot;
Well...a major structural crack just occurred in Europe and with any luck it will be the crack that was heard around the world and that will hopefully precipitate a
cascade of reaction from other providers to follow along.
Hutchison 3, a telco provider in the UK, has just announced a ﬁxed rate pricing model and an quot;OpenGardensquot; strategy. This ﬁxes two of the major structural ﬂaws
in the mobile sector. In a perfect world, this will drive a chain reaction and like the Berlin wall, this would cause ﬂat-rate pricing and open gardens to ﬂourish across
the planet, creating a massive open platform upon which innovation would explode across the 2 billion phones currently on the planet.
Back to reality. What will this mean really? I have no idea. But we should all watch this one very closely.
(Thanks to Ajit Joakar for the tip.)
Leave Comment | Permanent Link | Cosmos
IBM is going to spend $100M
on Second Life and immersive
IBM is going to spend $100M on Second Life and immersive environments!
by Troy Angrignon on Tue 21 Nov 2006 10:03 AM PST
IBM rocks. They keep doing cool things. They're spending a ton of money on wikis and light-weight scripting languages. And they asked 100,000 of their
customers, partners, and employees to develop an innovation pipeline. Now they are spending a reported $100M (according to BusinessWeek) in an effort to
capitalize on Second Life and other immersive environments. Awesome.
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Monday, November 20
Forget Accenture, McKinsey,
and EDS - let's go get 3,000
MBA students to help us
Screw Accenture, McKinsey, and EDS - let's go get 3,000 MBA students to help us
by Troy Angrignon on Thu 23 Nov 2006 10:04 AM PST
CNN has a great article on how companies like Amex, GE, and Whirlpool asked 3,000 MBA students to help them with some of their critical and strategic issues
around innovation. Worth a read.
Leave Comment | Permanent Link | Cosmos
Tuesday, November 21
WHAT IS WEB 2.0 AND
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR
I read, write, think, attend conferences, and generally just hang out with the 2.0 crowd as much as possible to get the bigger picture, to see how it applies to our
Web 2.0: quot;a set of economic, social, and
technology trends that collectively form the
basis for the next generation of the Internet -
a more mature, distinctive medium
characterized by user participation,
openness, and network effects.” - John
There are MANY deﬁnitions. This one is pretty good.
In his book, The World is Flat, Thomas L. Friedman outlines the three great eras of globalization:
Globalization 1.0, from 1492–1800: a period when the world shrank from a size large to a size medium;
Globalization 2.0, from 1800–2000: a time when multinational companies were the dynamic force driving global integration;
Globalization 3.0 began around 2000 and is characterized as a time when individuals have newfound power to collaborate and compete globally.
Given that Friedmanʼs era “Globalization 3.0” happens around the year 2000 and that it is characterized by the individualʼs ability to collaborate and compete globally, it makes us conclude: Globalization 3.0
= Web 2.0! (He just didnʼt know anything about Web 2.0 so he didnʼt talk about it.)
The Economic drivers of 2.0:
Software prices, processing costs, and storage costs have all dropped through the ﬂoor. If you outsource, offshore, or ʻcrowd-sourceʼ, your people costs go down too. And by the way, $400 billion of
traditional advertising spend is looking for a new home on the Internet.
• Global customer base
• Customers are quot;always onquot; (broadband)
• Customers are connected (by mobile)
• Customers are engaged (nearly 50% of U.S. adults have contributed online.)
• Costs of production continue to decrease
• Online advertising is becoming a real revenue opportunity (as $500B/yr ofﬂine shifts to online)
The Social drivers of 2.0:
Our innate desires to procreate, build community, nurture, collaborate, communicate, love, hate, and look for answers to our existential angst, combined with the fact that the threshold for participation has
now been lowered, have resulted in an explosion of creativity:
“...one study found that only 40 percent of the web is commercial. The rest runs on duty or passion...the deep enthusiasm for making things, for interacting more deeply than just choosing options, is the great
force not reckoned 10 years ago. This impulse for participation has upended the economy...”
- Kevin Kelly, “We Are The Web”
Desire to create
Desire to be social
Desire to share knowledge
Desire to serve
Desire for self-actualization
Maslow's entire hierarchy with Esther Dyson's additions (shelter, food, mobile phone!)
Desire to learn = Mix / Build on / Extend = Standing on the shoulder of giants. Rapid reuse and building upon of previous knowledge
Desire to mate: leads to online dating
Desire to ﬁnd and belong to community
Desire to express identity
Desire to nurture
Desire to collaborate = desire for community + desire to create
The Technological drivers of 2.0:
Rapid technological change isnʼt anything new, but like a tornado, Web 2.0 is occurring now due to the convergence of a ʻperfect stormʼ of technological factors:
PCs for the Masses: Inexpensive desktop computers are everywhere;
The development and wide public adoption of the most recent versions of Internet Explorer and FireFox are providing a stable platform for web applications;
Broadband Internet access is now ubiquitous (greater than 35% of U.S. households).
The arrival of tools such as AJAX that make it easy to create web applications that work just like desktop applications.
>70% of households in S. Korea) (Morgan Stanley Oct. 6.2005.)
35-30% of US households
~10% of global wireless have some form of broadband (so it may be too early to be driving any signiﬁcant web 2.0 change but will certainly beneﬁt from it.)
Software is free (a lot of it...except yours) (PK)
Processing costs are plummeting
Storage costs are plummeting:
2005: $1/GB (!!)
People costs are plummeting (off-shoring) (PK)
Company creation costs are plummeting (Joe Krause)
Going from idea to launch for Excite.com (1985): $2,000,000
Going from idea to launch for Jotspot.com (2005): $100,000
Micro-payment services now work (Paypal)
Micro-advertising services now work (Google)
It probably is a bit of a bubble, but bubbles are not all bad. Carl Haacke, author of Frenzy: Bubbles, Busts, and How to Come Out Ahead wrote in his short article
“5.5 Myths About Bubbles” that bubbles occur all the time and that they are part of normal economic function. Further, he clariﬁes how bubbles that are “based on
new technologies like the Internet or new market regions like China, are the driving force of capitalism...They ﬁnance innovation, change and accelerate learning
about new opportunities.”
Another key point that has been left out of most of these articles is that back in 1995–2000 during the dot.com boom, companies had the option of taking
themselves public through an IPO. That contributed signiﬁcantly to the wild stock market spike. It was a HUGE bubble in terms of total market capitalization.
For a variety of reasons, the IPO route is no longer as available to entrepreneurs, so most startups are using the “GAMEY” plan (“weʼll build this thing and then ﬂip
it to Google, AOL, Microsoft, EBay or Yahoo!”).
Since these startups are not ﬂooding the stock exchange, they are not causing a public market spike as they did in the late 1990s. The lack of a spike in the public
stock exchange is one indicator that, despite the hype surrounding Web 2.0, this is not as large of a bubble and that it will not impact people in the same way as
the last one did when things collapsed and decimated so many peopleʼs life savings in the process.
Dr. Paul Kedrosky, venture capitalist and blogger, said it best at the Vancouver Enterprise Forum in Fall 2005:
“Maybe there is a bit of a bubble but who cares if a whole bunch of companies innovate, try things and then fail? Theyʼre super capital-efﬁcient anyway so itʼs not
like theyʼre wasting a bunch of money. And weʼre getting the beneﬁts of all of this innovation! Itʼs the economy, stupid!! More is MORE!”
quot;It takes a lot of dead bodies to ﬁll a swampquot; (PK)
So, whatʼs the summary? Yes, there is hype, yes, it may be a bit of a bubble, but thatʼs part of our normal economic cycles. And despite the fact that itʼs sort of
bubble-like, real things are still happening, real industries are still being disrupted, and real opportunities exist...so who cares?
And the truth is that it probably is a bit of a bubble, but bubbles are not all bad. Carl Haacke, author of Frenzy: Bubbles, Busts, and How to Come Out Ahead wrote
in his short article “5.5 Myths About Bubbles” that bubbles occur all the time and that they are part of normal economic function. Further, he clariﬁes how bubbles
that are “based on new technologies like the Internet or new market regions like China, are the driving force of capitalism...They ﬁnance innovation, change and
accelerate learning about new opportunities.”
“Web 2.0 is the air for the
next bubble” – Paul Witherow
quot;It takes a lot of dead bodies
to ﬁll a swampquot; - Paul
Barriers to understanding Web 2.0: (Dion)
The Wall of buzzwords
the Wall of Hype
The wall of complexity
The wall of signﬁcance (how signiﬁcant is this really?)
the wall of ignorance: most people donʼt even know what a blog is yet, let alone any of this stuff!
Openness / transparency
Openness is affecting licensing, communication, and even product development and service. This does not necessary mean open source, although that might be
the case. But it means that there is a tendency towards openness and transparency where it is possible. This extends to things such as the increase in the use of
Creative Commons licensing and the phrase “some rights reserved.” It means that people expect companies to speak more plainly and openly about what is going
on with their products and services. And it means that companies are now inviting their ecosystem stakeholders into their product development processes.
respect for the users. This plays out in a variety of ways such as moving from “lock in” to “love in”, from controlling data (and users) to trusting users as partners
and equals. This means trusting your users to generate content, monitor their own community, help you design your products, hack your product, remix your data,
mashup your application, develop your documentation, and help you with your business and product strategy.
“Love In” is the new “Lock In”
Question(s): Is a key part of your business strategy focused on “locking in” your customer? Put yourself on the other side of that table. How do YOU feel about
being locked in to anything?
Old Thinking: Lock-in is a respected and necessary means of retaining your customers. This comes in particularly handy if your product is bad or doesnʼt work well
or your service is awful. After all, the customer canʼt leave!
New Thinking: “Love In” is the only way to truly keep your customers. Focus your efforts not on coercing your customers to stay against their will but on giving them
such incredible value, easy to use products, and high levels of satisfaction that they become your biggest, most vocal, and most passionate sales force.
Example(s): Any Software as a service provider is automatically more familiar with “Love In” because their clients can leave at any time and just stop paying the
monthly fees. This behaviour is most often seen in the smaller Web 2.0 applications that have no protection from customer churn OTHER than passion and loyalty
of their audience base (otherwise known as their fan club.)
Tags: Long Tail, recommendations, collaboration, algorithm, velocity
Collective Intelligence =
sometimes a crowd is smarter
than an individual
User generated content + the ability for the group to be smarter than the individual
User-generated content: Your users can generate BETTER content FASTER than you can.
Question(s): How could you serve your customers or stakeholders better by letting them help you?
Old Thinking: As the creator of a product or service, it was incumbent upon you to create everything that your users might need.
New Thinking: Your users know your product better than you do. And there are millions of them (hopefully). And for their own variety of reasons, they will often
generate content to share with their colleagues as a way of building or establishing reputation in their community.
Example(s): eBay is 100% user generated content. So is Craigslist. So is Digg. So is NowPublic. It has been estimated that 40% of the content on the web is non-
commercial in nature. [canʼt ﬁnd this reference.]
Lesson(s): Give your stakeholders the tools to generate content and get the hell out of their way.
Database of intentions: Database of Intentions: When you track every single thing a person does online, every query, every request, you end up with a picture of
their desires, wants, needs, and drives – something that they may not even explicitly recognize.
Questions: Do you track what your users do - wWhere they go, which features they use, how long they stay, what they ask for?
Old Thinking: Build an application. Ship it on CD. Forget about it. Build another one.
New Thinking: Build something. Instrument it heavily so that you know what people are doing with it. Watch them. Learn from them. Begin to understand the
patterns of their desires and goals and motivations and dreams.
Example(s): If you take every single Google or Yahoo or MSN search that you have ever made and look at it in a time sequence...what would it say about who you
are or who you aspire to be?
Lesson: When software is hosted (not downloaded or shipped), you can learn more about your users than you ever thought.
Tags: Attention trust, Usage pattern data
Data is the next quot;intel insidequot;
= get some data and make it
Free Your Data: Give up control of your data, and let people connect to it and build on it. This is your new source of wealth – hard to recreate databases that you
Question(s): Do you ﬁercely guard your data? Is it considered more precious than the crown jewels in your company?
Old Thinking: Proprietary data is the source of our wealth.
New Thinking: Our data plus your data in your application means that there will be an explosion of innovation and we may gain a LOT more customers for our
data. Furthermore, if we allow people to build on our data, pretty soon we have a very hard to recreate data source with top-notch data quality.
Example(s): Amazon bought their ISBN data from a third party vendor. Then they let their customers build on that database. Their database is now better than the
original vendors database. Similarly, Google bought Keyhole (the people behind Google Earth) and gave away the maps. Innovation around global mapping has
Lesson(s): Closed data is bad. Open data with APIs and user modiﬁcations is brilliant.
Tags: Data, Control, Community Data, APIs
Licensing is shifting from closed to open: from “all rights reserved” to “some rights reserved”
Question(s): How closed are you? What is your worldview – do we live in a universe of scarcity? Or abundance? Do you think that enclosure and property rights
are the way to wealth?
Old Thinking: Develop your intellectual property. Enclose it with as many layers of intellectual property protection as you can. Defend it to the last. Or else do not
protect it, but do keep it as a “trade secret” and hope that people donʼt ﬁgure it out on their own. This world view is based on enclosure of property rights as a
source of wealth over time.
New Thinking: Create intellectual property and then share it with the world. Give some or all of it to the open source community of which you are a part. Share it
with others, including your competitors. This worldview is based on the principle that the real money is made not from licensing, but through fees elsewhere in the
product cycle. Rapid, widespread sharing of IP lowers the cost of innovation and product development for all players, leaving more money for differentiation in
marketing, distribution and service.
Innovation in Assembly =
Make small chunks and hook
them together with other
APIs, RSS, iCal, Alerting, etc. Monolithic apps and now micro-apps all connected (not either/or, AND).. Micro-chunking of the internet into smaller granules
Rich user experience =
Make it suck less
than it does now
Currently AJAX, but that will go away and be replaced with other things like Apollo
Perpetual Beta =
We’re NEVER ﬁxing
that bug but you get a new
Just what it says; always crappy; always mutating; but hey, you get a new app every day!
Software above the level of
iPod + PC/Mac/iTunes + iTunes Music store; Last.fm player + Last.fm server; Web as platform: Web as Platform: The desktop operating system is (sort of) dead
and the Web is the only platform that really matters
Question(s): Are you still building desktop applications? Why? Can you make them more interoperable with your web-services? Do you HAVE web services?
Old Thinking: If you wanted to build an application, you would look for your target audience, and then prioritize which operating systems to build in what sequence.
Each operating system had unique heterogeneous complexity issues that increased your coding and testing requirements exponentially.
New Thinking: The web is the platform for the application, not the operating system.
Example(s): iTunes, Xbox, Salesforce.com, last.fm
Lesson(s): Stop building for the desktop. Build for the web only. Or build across all devices (which might still require a device speciﬁc client application.) If you can
build for the web only, you radically simplify your code base, and you simplify the number of variables (since youʼre building for a single data center and not
heterogeneous environments.) But donʼt do this blindly. Examine each application on a case by case basis to see if it makes sense for you and for your
Tags: Web as Platform, Software Above the Level of Device
Mobility: all features and applications will be mobile
Long Tail: You may make more
money in the Tail than in the
Question(s): Does your business map to Long Tail economics? Do you have a few markets of millions? What if you could ADD a million markets of a few and
make good proﬁt doing it? Are the assumptions that you hold so dear actually wrong now that self-service and recommendation engines exist?
Old Thinking: We will serve “several markets of millions” because thatʼs the only way we get economies of scale – by treating all of the customers in that customer
segment the same way. Smaller markets just arenʼt worth it because “In the tyranny of physical space, an audience too thinly spread is the same as no audience
at all...Hit-driven economics is a creation of an age without enough room to carry everything for everybody. Not enough shelf space for all the CDs, DVDs, and
games produced. Not enough screens to show all the available movies. Not enough channels to broadcast all the TV programs, not enough radio waves to play all
the music created, and not enough hours in the day to squeeze everything out through either of those sets of slots.”
New Thinking: We can now also serve “millions of markets of several.” Because our customers can ﬁnd us, buy our product, learn how to use our product, and
upgrade our product (without our intervention), it is now proﬁtable to go down “into the tail” to ﬁnd customers.
Example(s): As of October 2004, Amazon.com made 57% of its revenue off of product in the Tail (books that are unavailable in physical bookstores.) eBay is
mostly tail – niche and one-off products. Salesforce.com has an average of 19.5 users per deployment.
Lesson(s): Make your system self-serve by keeping the thresholds low for customers, partners, vendors, to join in. Use web-marketing (search is one of the
cheapest marketing costs out there), self-serve purchasing, self-serve training, and ongoing self-administration. Build recommendation systems that drive users
from the head into the tail (“If you like this top 10 book, youʼll also like this obscure but relevant book.”)
Tags: Self-Service, Long Tail, Cost of Marketing, Cost of Sales, Cost of Goods Sold, Revenue growth, Recommendation Engines
The Long Tail:
“In the tyranny of physical space, an audience too thinkly spread is the same as no audience at all.”
Rule 1: Make everything available.
Rule 2: Cut the price in half. Now lower it.
Rule 3: help me ﬁnd it (use systems to help people ﬁnd things in the long tail.)
Filters and recommendation systems make the long tail work: Recommendation systems can make your users more satisﬁed and can make your business a lot
Question(s): Do your users come to your site or use your applications and think to themselves, “Wow, how did they know I needed THAT piece of information or
wanted to do THAT?” Itʼs just like magic!”
Old Thinking: Using simple pattern-matching is good enough (“other users who bought X also bought Y, would you like Y too?”)
New Thinking: Recommendation engines are complex multi-variable analytics. And they can make you a LOT more money from your users if they are designed
well and used in the correct way.
Example(s): Amazon.com has very advanced recommendation engines that use multiple variables from the user and from the information coming from other users
to dynamically adjust its recommendations over time.
Lesson(s): If you have a system where this is applicable, hire yourself some statistical analysis geniuses. Ask them to solve this problem: “optimize our
recommendations so that we generate the most total proﬁt from each customer.”
Tags: Long Tail, recommendations, collaboration, algorithm, velocity
Lightweight business and cost
Craigslist 22 people, competes with the other media giants that have 15,000 people; Google has 450,000+ commodity boxes - they are one of the top 3 PC
is one of the major reasons it is possible to make money in the “Long Tail.”
Question(s): How self-serve is your organization?
Old Thinking: We canʼt sell to the Long Tail because our cost of doing business there is too high.
New Thinking: Our users ﬁnd us online, buy our product or service without talking to sales people, learn how to use our product by watching our tutorials, chatting
on our forums, and collaborating with other users.
Example(s): By fall of 2005, Doubleclick had 2,000 advertisers through their very manual process of on-boarding new customers. Google had around 200,000
Lesson(s): Examine your entire product lifecycle. Rebuid your systems so that people can ﬁnd, acquire, use, and retire your product, without ever talking to your
Tags: Self-Service, Long Tail, Cost of Marketing, Cost of Sales, Cost of Goods Sold
Self-moderation and self-ranking are important keys to self-service (and low cost delivery of your offerings.)
Question(s): Are you still moderating your community manually? If so, how can you possibly scale up? You CANʼT.
Old Thinking: We will allow users to use our system but since they are an unruly mob, we must moderate them, control them, and decide who can stay and who
must be sanctioned.
New Thinking: It turns out that people are quite capable of moderating themselves and also ranking the people and information around them for quality.
Example(s): In most social networking sites, there are mechanisms for people to ﬂag material and other users for things such as “incorrect category”, “XXX
material”, or “abuse of terms”, or “
Lesson(s): Build self-moderation and self-ranking into your communities alongside self-service for payments. It allows you to manage large numbers of users
without the extra bandwidth of having to monitor everything. This equals lower costs of administration and cost of goods for hosted applications. And that equals
Tags: Self-moderation, Trust, Self-Ranking, Online Community, Social Network, Self-service
Search = Find = Buy = $8.50
38% of new customers are acquired by search!!! (Meeker)
: the ﬁrst theme is about people working together, collaborating, to create software, content,
communities, art, music, literature, and a multitude of other things. Web 2.0 tools and applications
support this type of interaction at their core.
There is a conversation happening and it’s not just happening in your corporate website forum. It is
happening on blogs. It is public conversation about politics, business, social issues, and anything else you
can imagine, including your company. Tools are developing rapidly in this area and we have a long way to
go, but these are exciting times. There is a conversation going on right now that you could contribute
to or learn from. What are you waiting for? Join in!
: We have had online communities now for at least ﬁfteen years or more. But the tools for
building online communities are now becoming more widespread and communities are
forming around every imaginable (an unimaginable) subject, product, and industry. If you are
looking for your “tribe”, they are probably out there somewhere.
: think of cumulative learning as peer reviewed journals for every person on the planet with
internet access. People can now build on the knowledge of others (through the miracles of
search and wikis) faster than at any time in history.
Architecture of Participation
Build it so that it’s easy to
(need ref) means building things in a way that encourages people to contribute and
Question(s): How do people participate when the software they use isn’t designed to let them
do so? How do people collaborate on their spreadsheets easily? How do people co-create
marketing materials quickly and simply? For the most part, they don’t because the tools are
designed for stand-alone use.
Old Thinking: Most software was designed for people to use alone. Even if they were
connected at the same time as others, they would never know it.
New Thinking: Your users should have the ability to see who else is “there”, to work with them
in an ad-hoc manner, and to ﬁnd their colleagues, no matter where they are physically
Example(s): Wikis are a great example of this principle. They are designed from the ground up
as places for people to collaborate.
Lesson(s): Build for participation. Build “awareness” and “presence” into your systems. Make it
easy for people to work together no matter what your tools do.
Tags: Social Media, Wikis, Presence
New business models
: Pricing: “Letʼs give them Freemium pricing with per-load usage and metered APIS.” (Read on for the translation.)
Question(s): How would you package and price a web application?
Old Thinking: Most people would assume that a software as a service would have to be paid by monthly fee. But it turns out that there a lot of different models.
New Thinking: Oracle charges the same as if you bought the software for your own company and THEN they charge hosting fees on top. Salesforce.com charges
an annual or bi-annual fee PLUS monthly subscription fees (depending upon your deployment size). Some smaller web 2.0 application companies charge per user.
Others use “Freemium” pricing – itʼs free for a certain number of users or certain amount of load on the system, but if the users go past those thresholds, then
tiered pricing kicks in on a monthly basis. Another inventive approach to pricing is to charge by LOAD and not by users. The idea is that it is better to have a
company put all of their people on your application and not have a barrier to adoption be the per-user pricing. BUT the catch is that there is some sort of metering
of the application load.
Here is yet another innovative approach. If your application has APIs (connections that allow other applications on the web to talk to it), you can allow connections
for free up to a point...but if that remote application begins using too much time on your API, it can cross a threshold beyond which you start billing them. This is
referred to as a “metered API”.
Example(s): A great example is Basecamp from 37 Signals. You can invite as many people as you need to one project and it costs nothing. But as soon as you
open a second project, you need to start paying.
Lesson(s): Innovation can be found anywhere. It can happen in your sales, marketing, product development, delivery methods...and also in packaging and pricing.
Tags: Mashup, API, Pricing, Freemium, Per-Load Pricing, Per-User Pricing
What are the applications and
features that support Web
57 million blogs - some of
them HAVE to be good
What a shock, then, to witness the near-instantaneous rise of 50 million blogs, with a new one appearing every two seconds...These user-created channels make no sense economically. Where are the time, energy, and
resources coming from? The audience.”
- Kevin Kelly, “We are the Web”, Wired Magazine, Issue 13.08
The creative destruction of politics
The creative destruction of media
The impact on business
Who do they impact?
Marketing and corporate PR departments will be impacted.
Blogs in general: 0 (Mar 03) - 20M (Oct 05) = 18.9M blogs (doubling every 5 months. Consistent doubling over the past 36 months. (ref. DDavid L. Sifry, Technorati Oct 2005 State of hthe Blogosphere (>70,000 created DAILY).
Tagging: ~1/3 of blog posts have tags
quot;It'll be no more mandatory that they have blogs than that they have a phone and an e-mail account,quot; [Sun CEO Jonathan} Schwartz says. quot;If they don't they're going to look foolish.quot; B4B
quot;There's no fundamental difference between giving a keynote speech in Shanghai in front of 30,000 people and doing a blog read byseveral million people,quot; Schwartz says. B4B
quot;There's no better ambassador for Sun Microsystems than an employee,quot; Schwartz says. B4B
NO FEAR IN THE ENTERPRISE: quot;There are a lot of people who have a lot of opinions about every corporation, and they're having conversations,quot; [Lisa] Poulson said. quot;That's free market research. A corporation that is afraid of
the participation that comes iwth conversation has larger problems.quot; (AWESOME QUOTE)
“Iʼve had my Best Year in 20 Years! Why? On July 27, 2004, I began to Blog. Iʼve had a ball. My “constituency” has had a ball. My life has changed...thanks to...blogging. IʼM HAVING THE CONVERSATION OF MY LIFE...WITH
MY...COMMUNITY....WORLDWIDE. Robert Scoble, single-handedly at ﬁrst, has given the EVIL EMPIRE (Microsoft, who els?) a “Human Face”...thanks to his blog...This forreword (Iʼve written over 50 “forewords”!)
is...PERSONAL. ”Business Blogging” is incredibly important...or at least it can be if you follow some “simple rules”...openness & honesty & cool (not exactly businessʼs Big Three)...Biz Blogging...WORKS. It is of...MONUMENTAL
IMPORTANCE. (Or can be.) Listen. Please. If you donʼt youʼre a damn fool.) – Tom Peters in the foreward to Naked Conversations
“What does Microsoftʼs experience have to teach other businesses? According to [Joshua] Allen, [blogger at Microsoft], ʻYour whole company wonʼt collagse if you do this and your customers will love you.ʼ” NC. p13
“[Blogging has] been a great way for us to communicate to our customers – and for our customers, more importantly, to communicate with us. We trust our people to represent our company. Thatʼs what they are paid to do. If they
didnʼt want to be here, they wouldnʼt be here. So in a sense you donʼt run any more risk letting someone express themselves on a blog then you go letting them bgo out and see a customer on their own. It just touches more
peopel. Hey, if people need to be trained, we can do that, but I ﬁnd that blogging is just a great way to have customer communications.” – Steve Ballmer, NC, p19
On quelling rants and ﬂames: “[Mike Torres, lead program manager for MSN Spaces] used search services such as Technorati, Feedster, and PubSub to quickly ﬁnd and respond to any comments for or against MSN Spaces. ʻIt
stops the rants,ʼ he said. ʻA lot of times when you do that, thereʼs a ʻSorry – I didnʼt know you were listeningʼ reply. One guy posted, ʻBig retraction: I was wrong.ʼ What happens is that if they know youʼre in the conversation, people
get respectful. They may still criticize you, but they donʼt lie.” – NC p20
“Now, the Web is enabling the market to converse again, as people tell one another the truth about products and companies and their own desires.” The Cluetrain Manifesto (NC p31)
“As author-speaker Ben McConnell, a partner in Church of the Customer and co-author of Creating Customer Evanglists: How Loyal Customers Become a Volunteer Sales Force, told us, ʻThere is simply nothing more powerul
than customer evangelists. Blogging enables companies to convert customers into word-championing evangelists, a powerful mechanism for true believers to spread the word about what you do and why other people should
believe in what you are doing.” NC P33
Yossi Vardi “Blogging is “word of mouth on steroids.” NC statement.
“You may be asking whether blogging is as useful or relevant when your organization is in a period of crisis. My answer to that is yes. Itʼs more important then ever to open the door wide, speak as honsestly as possible and listen
to your customers....One ﬁnal word of advice: if you feel blogging is right for you and your company, donʼt spend your precious hours seeking the approvals of an endless body of corporate stakeholders. Launch your blog and
watch the conversation unfold.” Bob Lutz, Chairman, Global Products Development, GM (in the foreword to TCBB).. page xiii.
Who SHOULDNʼT blog
“People who have really awful communications skills should not blog. Employees who hate their jobs, their managers, or their products and services will ﬁnd blogging a catalyst for early departure. Executive ofﬁcers who cannot
resist making overly rosy predictions may ﬁnd their blog has a thorny backlash, and the same goes for marketing professionals who cannot resist strings of enthusiastic adjectives. People who ﬁnd their jobs repetitive or dull
shouldnʼt blog. In fact, people who are dull usuually have dull blogs and receive litte notice. People who canʼt abide criticism will not enjoy the blogging experience. he stronger the position they take, the stronger the comments
disagreeing with them may be. Commenters may not agree with you, might not like your work, might have something against your company, or just might not like you personally.
Should we blog?
McConell and Huba see “todayʼs blogging situation as running a parallel course with business Internet adotpoin in the middle 1990s. Adoption went sslow at ﬁrst. Companies wondered aloud what they could possibly do with a
web site, but then a tipping point was reached, and virtually every company found that it needed to have one. Huba and McConell se a time when business blogs will become just as pervasive. ʻI see no reason for any company
not to blog – unless theyʼre sleazy. Every company needs a feedback system, ad the easiest way to do that is through a blog. Itʼs almost like a truth serum,” she said. NC p89/90.
“Still, culture is clearly playing a role in how blogging develops. it can be national, ethnic, corporate, or departmental. Where people are encouraged to speak their mind, and those in power trust the people they oversee, blogging
ﬂourishes. There are reasons by political blogging in the United States has taken off wildly, whereas in China it has not. We imagine the same could be said about why blogging is not proliﬁc at Apple Computer but it is at Sun
Microsystms.” p131 NC.
“If an organization isnʼt already in a place where openness and transparancy in comunication eists and is practiced, then using tools like blogs will be unlikely to do anything positive for that organization. If your
opennesstransprency foundation isnʼt there, donʼt blog.” [said] Neville Hobson, the European-based PR consultant and ppopular podcaster. P145 NC
“Culture changes slowly. If yours is closed, we suggest opening it before shocking the ecosystem with a blog. If your employees feel untrusted, you may need to take steps to demonstrate your faith in them before you encourage
blogging. If your cultureʼs communications policy is rooted in command-and-control rules, blogging will falter. If you donʼt have genuine faith that you can evolve a better company by listening to what your customers, prospects,
investors, vendors, and partners have to say, then a blogging effort will not provide you with its full value. If you donʼt want to listen – REALLY listen – tehn blogs will be thorny for you and your culter. If you canʼt be candid about
your companyʼs dirty laundry, then blogging probably isnʼt for you. If you insidt your company doesnʼt have dirty laundry, then your company may be too boring to write about. Every compny has its share of problems. If you arenʼt
willing to discuss them with some degree of openness, then youʼll be missing a huge amount of power that the blog could bring to your company. People are hungry for companies that have conversations with them – warts and
all. They tend to distrust companies that try to say “everythingʼs perfect here.” We like the somewhat poetic observation of Cold River author Jozef, Imrich, who told us, “Sunlight is the best disinfectant – all great CEOs encourage
transparency and opeenness as long as sensitive data is not leaked.” P146 NC
RSS is the lifeblood of the
is the lifeblood of Web 2.0. It connects machines to machines, people to machines, and people to people. Think of it as the means by which all information will be
passed from anything to anything.
Question(s): What is your RSS strategy? Uhh, yeah, we thought so.
Old Thinking: HTTP requests from br