Welcome to Drupal Camp LA 2008 * This was a presentation written by Troy Angrignon (President) and David Feldhaus (Director Sales) and delivered by Jonathan Lambbert (CEO) at the DrupalCamp LA, September 13-14, 2008.
Drupal Camp LA
* This was a presentation written by Troy Angrignon
and David Feldhaus and delivered by Jonathan Lambbert
at the DrupalCamp LA, September 13-14, 2008.
“The ﬁrst ten years
(1995-2005) of commercial
internet were a warm up
act for what is about to
happen.” - Morgan Stanley
# We are standing at a moment in history when a revolution is occurring. You will look back at these years of your life as a time when a sea of change was upon us.
# Morgan Stanley, 2006 Internet Trends Report said: “We believe the ﬁrst ten years (1995-2005) of commercial internet were a warm up act for what is about to happenquot;.
# That's an understatement.
* The internet is still exploding around the world onto pcs and more often than not, on mobile phones and portable devices.
* Video has gone exponential.
* Everything is moving onto the web as a service.
* Social networking is growing rapidly.
# Industries are being rewritten.
# Platforms for this next era are being built right now and one of those is Drupal.
* All indicators are that it will be one of the winners in the race.
# I'm going to give you a brief tour of what's happening in the broader landscape, talk about some things you can do, discuss the value of doing those things, and then offer up a challenge.
# Let's dive in.
* 1B+ internet users and growing
* 3B+ mobile users and growing fast
* Additional key ﬁndings from the Cisco VNI Forecast include
o Mobile data trafﬁc will roughly double each year from 2008 through 2012.
# Internet is International:
* 70 % of all trafﬁc to US website comes from non-US visitors [mary meeker last slide]
* Rest of world is a big part of the audience for all major US sites!
# advertising on the web
* $500B/yr shifting to online in the next three-ﬁve years;
# For the ﬁrst time in history, Newspaper ad revenues will be knocked out of the #1 spot by broadcast TV and then broadcast TV ad revenue will be beat by Internet Ad revenue only three
short years later!!
* This year will mark the ﬁrst time in U.S. history that broadcast television will get more advertising dollars than newspapers, according to a study due Tuesday.
* If the prognostication from Veronis Suhler Stevenson is correct, broadcast TV will be the No. 1 advertising medium in the country, knocking newspapers from the spot they have held
since the late 18th century, the start of such record-keeping.
* However, the TV networks ought not get too complacent -- three years from now, Internet advertising will take over as the leading generator of advertising revenue, VSS says.
* According to VSS, a media private equity ﬁrm, Internet advertising will boast an 18.9% compound annual growth rate from 2007-12, compared with 2.6% for broadcast TV and negative
2.8% for newspapers.
* Last year, newspapers took in $51.5 billion in advertising revenue compared with $48 billion for broadcast TV. But this year, with a boost from a presidential race and the Olympics,
broadcast TV will spike to $51 billion while newspapers sink to $46.8 billion.
* And once newspapers relinquish their lead, they aren't expected to regain it any time soon.
# video on the web:
Cisco said nearly 90% of all consumer IP trafﬁc is expected to consist of video on demand, IP peer-to-peer video, and Internet video in 2012.
* The growth is creating a new vocabulary of IP metrics of exabytes and zettabytes. One exabyte equals 1 billion GB, or 250 million DVDs. A zettabyte equals 1 trillion GB, or 1,000
exabytes or 250 billion DVDs.
# Software as a service:
* By 2012, at least one-third of business application software spending will be as service subscription instead of as product license.
With software as service (SaaS), the user organisation pays for software services in proportion to use. This is fundamentally different from the ﬁxed-price perpetual license of the traditional
on-premises technology. Endorsed and promoted by all leading business applications vendors (Oracle, SAP, Microsoft) and many Web technology leaders (Google, Amazon), the SaaS model
of deployment and distribution of software services will enjoy steady growth in mainstream use during the next ﬁve years. (Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT organizations and Users in
2008 and beyond)
# free and open source software: NEEDS MORE FOCUS
* IDC says quot;open source software will continue to impact business decisionsquot; in 2008 and beyond.
* we thought it would save money by allowing us to go for density but it turns out that its REAL value is that it allows us to move computing resources around ﬂexibly;
* All leading software vendors are now supporting or planning to support virtualization
# leading to Everything as a service!
* Gartner, the well known analyst company, says that by 2011, early technology adopters will forgo capital expenditures and instead purchase 40 per cent of their IT infrastructure as a
service. Increased high-speed bandwidth makes it practical to locate infrastructure at other sites and still receive the same response times. Enterprises believe that as service oriented
architecture (SOA) becomes common quot;cloud computingquot; will take off, thus untying applications from speciﬁc infrastructure. (Gartner 2008 Key Predictions)
# cloud computing:
* Question: What do the following companies all have in common: Amazon, Microsoft, Google, EMC, VMware, IBM, Sun, Dell, Akamai, SalesForce.com, NetSuite, and Activision (makers of
* Answer: Cloud Computing. Merrill Lynch analysts reckon that by 2011 the volume of cloud computing market opportunity will amount to $160BN, including $95BN in business and
productivity apps (e-mail, ofﬁce, CRM, etc.) and $65BN in online advertising.
* Think of it as next-generation hosting.
o Forrester Research deﬁnition for its simplicity and brevity: quot;A pool of abstracted, highly scalable, and managed compute infrastructure capable of hosting end-customer applications
and billed by consumption.quot;
o Forrester def 2 from Frank Gillette: quot;IT Infrastructure, Web-based services, or software-as-a-service that is accessible from anywhere on the Internet and either free or billed solely by
o characteristics (from GigaOm):
* SaaS folding into that.
* Grid computing folding into it
* High Performance computing folding into it
* It's like a black hole
* lowers the cost structure to a fraction
* makes video cost effective
* drops content delivery costs
* hosting cost will drop - commodity prices of utility service
# We will move to event driven architectures
* RSS will still be around
* XMPP will rise
* Everything will have presence!
# And ﬁnally, you have social networking in the consumer space
* 60% growth/yr
* 30% of online users are connected so far, many more to add!
* Facebook and Youtube get more pageviews than Yahoo and Google combined
o social site are taking thier place out front
* By 2010, Gartner predicts that web mashups, which mix content from publicly available sources, will be the dominant model (80%) for the creation of new enterprise applications.
quot;Because mashups can be created quickly and easily, they create possibilities for a new class of short-term or disposable applications that would not normally attract development dollars,quot;
said Mr Cearley. quot;The ability to combine information into a common dashboard or visualise it using geo-location or mapping software is extremely powerful.quot;
(DRUPAL IS PERFECT FOR THIS)
# Moving away from computers and onto phones and personal internet devices:
o By 2012, 50 per cent of traveling workers will leave their notebooks at home in favour of other devices.
Even though notebooks continue to shrink in size and weight, traveling workers lament the weight and inconvenience of carrying them on their trips. Vendors are developing solutions to
address these concerns: new classes of Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level; and server and Web-based applications that can be accessed from anywhere. There is
also a new class of applications: portable personality that encapsulates a user's preferred work environment, enabling the user to recreate that environment across multiple locations or
(Gartner Highlights Key predications for IT organization and Users in 2008a dn Beyond)
goes mobile and
* users are going mobile and digital;
* they are timeshifting and adskipping
* they watch what they want when they want on what they want
* And the people in this room are building apps for them!
* moving towards
o persnalized video on demand
o proliferation of video in social networks and on mobile devices.
o ﬂash dominates;
is ﬂat or
# publishing & newspapers
* are suffering from ﬂat or declining sales across the board and are now moving their content and their advertising online
* Physical sales are rapidly declining and online is increasing but overall the pictre is that total recorded music sales is declining year over year from 35B in 2001 to an estimated 25B in
* music industry realizing that they key is not DRM but opening up new and creative revenue streams like online merchandising, touring ticket sales, and licensing deals with YouTube and
You Media, Inc.
# social media
* NowPublic, Digg, Publish2, and many other sites are being built that let YOU be the news
Social + Gaming
# gaming and virtual worlds
* the gaming industry is already a $10B industry;
* now it's becoming even more social;
* 1-3 years to develop
* costs are spiralling
* industry consolidation
* $500M sales for Grand Theft Auto IV
* becoming social
* building partner, employee, and customer communities;
* E2 is growing from $1B to $4.6B by 2013 (get original quote from Forrester);
* vendors multiplying like crazy, many with similar functional sets: proﬁles, blogs, wikis, groups, forums, rich content sharing, collaboration on documents;
o Jive Software
o MS Townsquare
o IBM Lotus Connections
o Teligent Community Server
o Wordpress MU
o Moveable Type Enterprise
# Okay, so you have decided to jump in and get involved but which platform or horse do you bet on?
* who will win and who will lose?
* which horse do you bet on?
* You use the rule of 3s: All industries eventually settle into a rule of threes pattern: winner is twice is large as #2, who is twice as large as #3, etc. all the way down the tail.
o Water & Stone did a recent survey of the very crowded OSCMS market and found that Wordpress, Joomla, and Drupal were far and away the top three platforms.
o This means that it is a very probable survivor going forward.
o The community is vibrant;
o It has a new commercial company (Acquia);
o Drupal is one of the horses to bet on!
+ it is the connective tissue or the glue that holds together the social we: facebook, myspace, voice, video, mobile, text.
+ it has a massive and dynamic developer community (YOU!)
+ it is mutating and adapting very quickly.
# There is a lot of great commercial support from big players like Acquia, Lullabot
# Scaleability has been solved so now we're free to build big solutions
# there will be other companies doing it;
Drupal is at the heart of everything!
It is the connective tissue of the social cloud.
“Your playing small
does not serve the
- Marianne Williamson, Return to Love, 1992
# Suggested actions
* As Marianne Williams said: quot;your playing small doesn't serve the world.quot;
* This is the right time and place and the right tool for you to do great things
* Think big
* remove limits to your creativity (by using cloud computing to scale like crazy and not worrying about it)
* think multi platform
* think global
* scale to billions not thousands or hundreds
* think multi-network,
* think multi-language,
* think multi-device,
* think multi-format: text, audio and video
# If you do these things, what do you get?
* you get to make a change in the world
* you get to work on things that make difference
* you create something of value
* you get paid more!
* you get to express your creativity!
# call to action
* Think Big (global)
* Think Open
* Think Networks (all)
* Think Platforms (all)
* We are here in the entertainment capital of the world - the center of one of the key parts of this change.
* I would like to challenge you to think about this for the rest of the weekend.
# Now that you have hold of Drupal Lever we can move the world.....
* where do you want to move it to?
* what do you want to create?
* who do you want to connect?
* What change do you wish to bring to the world?
* What should our revolution be ABOUT?
* What are your goals?
* What do you hope to achieve?
* I invite you all to have that conversation with each other and with me over the weekend.
* Welcome to DrupalCamp LA!