WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT BY TRIFID RESEARCHDocument Transcript
E E K L Y
O Blow by Blow
21 OCT – 25 OCT 2013
US Gold futures fell close to $6 an ounce on Friday trading on profit booking as prices
zoomed on Thursday following the temporary deal to end budget impasse on
Wednesday. Gold prices gained 3% on Thursday after the dollar dropped to eightmonth lows and a Chinese rating agency downgraded the US sovereign rating.
Inflationary pressures in the economy are likely to continue due to lower interest
rates and US stimulus package still in place. Gold fell about 4 percent during the U.S.
government shutdown, but jumped 3 percent on Thursday after the dollar dropped to
eight-month lows and a Chinese rating agency downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating.
A CME Group report said that a fresh multi month downside breakout in the Dollar
provided some added lift to the gold market on Thursday as the decline in the
Greenback might be expected to continue well into the future off the concept that the
US is poised to see deterioration in its interest rate differential with many other
currencies. With the added benefit of soaring equities and sharply lower energy
prices, the outlook for the economy at the end of October is likely to be vastly
improved relative to the beginning of October and that might provide the gold market
with some fresh classic/physically related buying interest.
Bears are holding the upper hand in crude oil market even as a stronger growth in
China has failed to create bullish sentiments as in metals. WTI Crude Oil November
futures at New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $100.61 a barrel and is down 1.3
percent this week following the US debt ceiling agreement and fall in US dollar index.
American Petroleum Institute has reported a surge in US crude oil inventories
pushing prices further into the bearish zone.
WTI is above the middle Bollinger band at about $100.31 a barrel. Buy orders tend to
be clustered close to chart-support levels, Bloomberg reported. Brent for December
settlement advanced as much as 0.38 percent, to $109.52 a barrel on the Londonbased ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a
premium of $8.91 to WTI for the same month. The spread narrowed for a second day
yesterday to $8.24.
US Gold falls on
Crude Oil, short
MCX Crude Oct,
Crude Oil prices edged up this morning on positive Chinese economic data, and MCX
November contract currently trading at 6224, up by 0.68 percent.
Tracking positive trends in London Metal Exchange and upbeat China GDP growth data
for the third quarter of 2013.
China's GDP growth has risen to 7.8% in third quarter compared to 7.5% in the first
quarter. Industial output growth had moderated to 10.2% in September compared to
10.4% in August.
The uptick in growth refelcts both better exports and solid domestic demand,
although the easing of industrial output in September indicates that the recovery is
tepid. Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange increased
0.2 percent to $7,247.25 a metric ton at 9:23 a.m. in Shanghai. The metal gained 0.6
percent this week.
bullish on China
MCX Copper futures for November delivery was seen trading up by 0.99%. at Rs.
452.05 per kilogram at 15.20 hrs IST on Friday. LME Copper for delivery in three
months was seen trading up by 0.54% at $7272 a metric ton as of 1:10 PM IST on
futures to be
GDP growth, US
DATE & TIME
Oct 21, 5:30pm
FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Existing Home Sales
Crude Oil Inventories
Oct 22, 6:00pm
Non-Farm Employment Change
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Richmond Manufacturing Index
Natural Gas Storage
Oct 23, 6:00pm
Import Prices m/m
Flash Manufacturing PMI
New Home Sales
JOLTS Job Openings
Oct 24, 6:00pm
Crude Oil Inventories
Natural Gas Storage
Oct 25, 6:00pm
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Durable Goods Orders m/m
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
MCX GOLD on its daily charts unable to
sustain on lower level and showed
some correction towards the 50%
retracement level. Now, if it sustains
below the psychological level of 30000
then 28740 will act as major support.
On other hand if it maintain above
30000 then trend reversal can be seen
till the resistance level of 38.2%
retracement i.e. 31160.
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 30000 for the target of 31150
with stop loss of 28700.
MCX SILVER last week gave false
breakout of strong support level of
46700 and found support around lower
band of channel pattern and bounced
back to upper band. Now, if it sustain
above 50% retracement then breakout
of channel pattern on upper side will
expected where it may find stiff
resistance around 51750. Major support
from current levels still maintain at
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 49300 for
target of 51500, with stop loss of 46500.
Crude oil last week showed sideways
to bearish movements and closed
below 50% retracement and also
moved in channel pattern on daily
charts. Now, if it sustains below 6120
then it may test the psychological level
of 6000. On higher side 6370 will act as
important resistance above which
break out of channel pattern on higher
side is exepected.
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
below 6100 for the target of 5900 with stop
loss of 6370.
MCX Copper on daily charts has been
moving in downward channel pattern
and reversed from the upper band last
week. In support of strength in Rupee,
it breached the 61.8% retracement
level of 447 and closed around it.
Strong support is seen near trend line
i.e. around 440 below which bear
trend will continue. Closing above 460
and holding above it will indicate
breakout of downward channel
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 444, with stop loss of 460 for the
target of 432.