09 SEP – 14 SEP 2013
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
MAJOR EVENTS
Gold prices edged down in the global market after positive data releases from around
the globe and the United...
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Sep 10, 12:30am Consumer Credit m/m 12.7B 13.8B
...
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
30980 29950 28740 32850 33870 35075
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
53110 50975 48365 56700 59250 61300
T E C H N I C ...
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6995 6800 6635 7270 7520 7700
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
467.70 451.90 437.50 487.50 ...
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
DISCLAIMER
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Commodity weekly-trend-09-sept-to-14-sept-report

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Commodity weekly-trend-09-sept-to-14-sept-report

  1. 1. 09 SEP – 14 SEP 2013 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
  2. 2. MAJOR EVENTS Gold prices edged down in the global market after positive data releases from around the globe and the United States raised the concerns that US Central Bank may start tapering its 'Commodity Friendly' monetary stimulus later this year. Comex gold fell to its lowest in more than one week on Friday. Gold futures for December delivery on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading down by 0.24% at $1369.7 per troy ounce as of 10.20 IST on Friday. Gold futures for October delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange was seen trading down by 0.12% at Rs.32180 per 10 grams as of 10.15 IST on Friday. Earlier this week, gold recorded an up-tick on concerns that the United States may take military action against Syrian forces in response to the alleged chemical weapons attack on Syrians. The US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index (NMI) rose to 58.6% in August 2.6 percent higher when compared to the 56 percent registered in July, as per the data released by ISM on Thursday. This indicates continued growth at a faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. This month's NMI is the highest reading for the index since its inception in January 2008. US crude oil prices in the global market edged up on Friday amid a decline in US crude oil stock-piles and promising data releases from around the United States. The trend in crude oil futures for September delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) looks bearish for the day and intra-day traders are advised to stay on sell side. US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.8 mn barrels from the previous week (August 30). At 360.2 mn barrels, US crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year, according to the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday. In the United States, the total non- farm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Employment rose in retail trade and health care but declined in information. Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in August. The jobless rate is down from 8.1 percent a year ago. US Crude Oil rises amid decline in stock-piles; MCX Crude Oil bearish. US Copper rises amid promising data, India Copper futures bearish. Copper prices rose amid promising data releases from European countries and the United States on Friday. The base metal was seen trading positive and is expected trade positive in the remaining session of the day. Copper prices for December delivery on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading up by 0.92% at $3.27 per pound as of 18.04 IST on Friday. In the United States, the total non-farm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Employment rose in retail trade and health care but declined in information. Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in August. The jobless rate is down from 8.1 percent a year ago. Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 2.3 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2013, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday. The increase in productivity reflects an increase of 3.7 percent in output and 1.4 percent in hours worked. Gold touches one week low on US monetary stimulus concerns.
  3. 3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS Sep 10, 12:30am Consumer Credit m/m 12.7B 13.8B 5:00pm NFIB Small Business Index 94.8 94.1 7:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 3.96M 3.94M Sep 11, 7:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.3% -0.2% 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M 10:30pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.62/2.5 Sep 12, 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 332K 323K 6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.6% 0.2% 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 58B 10:30pm 30-y Bond Auction 3.65/2.1 11:30pm Federal Budget Balance -155.3B -97.6B Sep 13, 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.5% 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.2% 0.0% 6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.2% 6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.1% 7:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 82.6 82.1 7:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.0% 7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.0%
  4. 4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 30980 29950 28740 32850 33870 35075 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 53110 50975 48365 56700 59250 61300 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX GOLD on its daily charts found important support of trend line and closed below 23.6% retracement. Now, immediate support is seen near to its 38.2% retracement i.e. 31150, sustains below which it may find next support around psychological level of 30000. On higher side 32850 is seen as resistance for it above which it may lead towards next resistance level of 34500. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 31500 for the target of 30700 with stop loss of 32600. PIVOT TABLE G O L D PIVOT TABLE S I L V E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX SILVER last week showed bullish movement, but unable to break its previous week high took resistance around upper band of channel on weekly chart. Now, support is seen around 53100 below which it is in weak zone and may find next support around 50000. On other hand if it able to sustain on higher level then it may find resistance of 58300. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 53100 for target of 51000, with stop loss of 55650.
  5. 5. C R U D E O I L C O P P E R S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 6995 6800 6635 7270 7520 7700 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 467.70 451.90 437.50 487.50 502.50 515 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Copper on daily charts broke trendline and closed below it. If it able to sustain below this trend line then some correction is expected in it below 467.50 towards next support level of 451. On higher side 487.50 is seen as resistance for it closing above it shows strength in it towards next resistance level of 505 above which it may test all time highs. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 6990 for the targets of 6810 with stop loss of 7275. PIVOT TABLE T E C H N I C A L V I E W Crude oil last week showed choppy movements found support around 50% retracement and trend line on daily charts. Now, it is trades around trendline immediate support is seen around 7075 below which it may find support near to its 50% retracement and psychological level of 7000. On upper level 7400 is act as resistance for it. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 467, with stop loss of 488 for the targets of 452. PIVOT TABLE
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