Commodity weekly-technical-report-by-trifidresearch


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Commodity weekly-technical-report-by-trifidresearch

  1. 1. 14 OCT – 18 OCT 2013 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
  2. 2. MAJOR EVENTS Rupee gains against dollar, rising equities caused Gold futures at India's Multi Commodity Exchange to fall close to !% at 28590 per 10 grams in afternoon trade on Friday while US gold futures fell below $1300 and remained at those levels as a short term solution to increase debt limits looks likely to be acceptable to Congressional Republicans in USA. On Friday morning, USD/INR slipped by 0.50% and touched an intra-day low of 61.24. With INR likely to remain strong for today's session, Gold prices could come under pressure. MCX Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.93% to 28590 and couldn't overcome the opening price of Rs 28794 as against previous close of Rs 28857 per 10 grams.US Gold futures for December delivery fell close to 1% at $1284 an ounce at electronic trading at Comex division of New York Mercantile Exchange. The World Gold Council expects Indian gold demand to rise to 300 tons in the last quarter of 2013 on festival demand that could take total demand to 1000 tons. US WTI Crude Oil futures rose to a high of $103.57 per barrel before settling on Thursday at $103.01/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Analysts said that the congressional Republicans offer to temporarily raise US debt ceiling provided the White House discusses way out of a fiscal impasse that has closed the government and unrest in Libya cause by the abduction of Prime Minister by Ali Zeidan and likely tightening of Oil supplies had impacted market sentiments. On Wednesday, WTI crude oil has settled at $101.61, the lowest since July 3. Brent for November settlement climbed $2.74, or 2.5 percent, to $111.78 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 44 percent above the 100-day average. The North Sea crude’s premium over WTI ended the day at $8.77, the most since June 6. The unexpected gains in Crude Oil were to an extent likely to be neutralised by rising US crude oil inventories. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil inventories rose by 6.8 mn barrels in the week ended October, higher than expected increase of 1.5 mn barrels. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 370.5 million barrels as of last week. Crude Oil rebound may sustain on Libyan unrest, US debt impasse to hurt. India Copper futures weak on sluggish economic growth, Rupee gains. Copper may be trading positive on London Metal Exchange (LME) and New York Mercantile Exchange, however, India copper futures at Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remains bearish on account of gains in Indian Rupee and weak growth prospects for the Indian economy. The Economic Outlook Survey by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) pointed out that GDP growth is likely to fall to 5% from an earlier forecast of 6%. It may be recalled that Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) had revised downwards India's GDP growth forecast to 5.3% for 2013-14. Meanwhile, LME Copper prices rose on expected positive China trade data and effort by US politicians to avoid a debt default. Chaina imports may have risen 7% in September on a year-on-year basis. The copper market continues to discount the ongoing pattern of daily LME copper stock declines, even though stock levels have declined by nearly 24% from their recent peak. Copper has also seen rising open interest and rising volumes in the face of a noted recent decline in prices. From a technical perspective, many traders feel that might give additional credence to the recent slide in prices. Bears take grip of India Gold futures, US Gold falls on optimism in debt issue.
  3. 3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS Oct 13, Day 3 IMF Meetings Oct 14, All Day Bank Holiday Oct 15, 6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 8.2 6.3 7:30pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Oct 16, 7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 58 58 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 6.8M 11:30pm Beige Book Oct 17, 3:00am FOMC Member George Speaks 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 357K 374K 7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 15.4 22.3 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 90B 10:15pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks 10:15pm FOMC Member George Speaks Oct 18, 7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.7% 0.7% 10:00pm FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks 11:30pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks Oct 19, 1:10am FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
  4. 4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 28000 27000 25975 29015 29960 30850 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 46500 44925 42820 48580 50780 53150 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX GOLD on its daily charts showed some correction towards the level of 29750 in starting of the week but could not hold on higher levels and dragged down to breach 61.8% retracement and closed below it. Now, if it sustains below 28740 then major support is seen around 27350. On other hand if some correction is seen then 28750 will act as crucial resistance closing above which can lead to higher side. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell on highs for the target of 27350 with stop loss of 29500. PIVOT TABLE G O L D PIVOT TABLE S I L V E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX SILVER last week found stiff resistance around psychological level of 50000 and rebounded towards deeper support of 46700 and close around it indicating further bearishness. Now, if it sustain below 46700 then next support level is seen around the trendline which will act as strong support i.e. 45000- 44500.On higher side some correction may lead it towards the resistance level of 48050-49250. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 46500 for target of 45000, with stop loss of 48500.
  5. 5. C R U D E O I L C O P P E R S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 6150 5925 5650 6370 6600 6875 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 437.50 425 413.70 450.50 465.10 480 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Copper on daily charts has been moving in downward channel pattern and reversed from the upper band last week. In support of Comex Copper weakness, it breached the 61.8% retracement level of 447 and closed below it. Strong support is seen near trend line around 438 below which bear trend will continue. Closing above 451 and holding above it can only indicate some strength. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 6150 for the target of 5860 with stop loss of 6480. PIVOT TABLE T E C H N I C A L V I E W Crude oil last week showed sideways to bearish movements and closed below 50% retracement and also moved in channel pattern on daily charts. Now, if it sustains below 6225 then it may test the psychological level of 6000. On higher side 6480 will act as important resistance above which break out of channel pattern on higher side is exepected. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 437, with stop loss of 451 for the target of 425. PIVOT TABLE