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Commodity weekly-technical-report-25-to-29-november-by-trifidresearch

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  • 1. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM W R E E E K L Y P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals, 25 NOV – 29 NOV 2013 Energy…
  • 2. MAJOR EVENTS India's gems and jewellery trade has called for restoration of credit facility (SBLC -Gold loan) for jewellery manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers in order to ensure growth in exports. The present stipulation that twenty percent of the imported gold has to be exported could also act as a restraint on import of gold, according to All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation. Gold smuggling has increased sharply across the country on import duty hike and restrictions on import. This will ruin the economy while many entrepreneurs who had spent money to set up jewellery manufacturing facility are in dire straits that will result in economic loss and unemployment. The absence of sufficient customs bonded ware houses in the country is also making it difficult for manufacturers to get gold, resulting high premiums have rendered artisans jobless despite the wedding season which provides peak business for the trade. Jewellery business has reported sharp fall in sales of coins and bars in the festival season of 2013. Crude oil futures slipped lower during early European trading hours on Friday, but remained within close ranged of a three-week high following the release of positive U.S. economic reports on Thursday, while talks with Iran continued. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD95.18 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.28%. The January contract settled up 1.69% at USD95.44 a barrel on Thursday. Oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.47 a barrel, Thursday's low and resistance at USD96.64 a barrel, the high from November 1. Oil prices found support on Thursday after preliminary data showed that U.S. manufacturing activity improved to an eight-month high of 54.3 in November from a reading of 51.8 in October. A separate report showed that the number of people filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, beating expectations for a decline of 9,000. However, data also showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia-region expanded at the slowest pace in six months in November. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for January delivery fell 0.26% to trade at USD109.79 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD14.61 a barrel. Copper futures inched higher on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data due later in the session to gauge the strength of the economy and the need for further stimulus. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.170 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.35%. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.143 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.171 a pound. The December contract settled 0.06% higher on Wednesday to end at USD3.159 a pound. U.S. was release data on producer price inflation, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data manufacturing activity from the Philly Fed later in the day. Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to scale back stimulus. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting published Wednesday triggered fresh concerns that the central bank could begin to slow its bond-purchasing program as soon as December. According to the minutes, policymakers said they could start scaling back the USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected. India Jewellery trade calls for restoration of credit facility to rescue industry, boost export. Crude oil futures slip lower, but remain near 3week highs. Copper futures edge higher before U.S. jobless claims data.
  • 3. ECONOMIC CALENDER DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS Nov 25 8:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 2.2% -5.6% Nov 26 7:00pm Building Permits 0.94M 7:00pm Housing Starts 0.92M Sep Data Building Permits 0.94M 0.93M Housing Starts 0.91M 0.89M 7:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 13.0% 12.8% 7:30pm HPI m/m 0.5% 0.3% 8:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 72.2 71.2 Richmond Manufacturing Index 3 1 Nov 27 7:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% -0.2% 7:00pm Unemployment Claims 331K 323K Durable Goods Orders m/m -1.5% 3.8% Chicago PMI 60.6 65.9 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 73.1 72.0 Sep Data 8:30pm 7:00pm 8:15pm 8:25pm 8:25pm 8:30pm 9:00pm 10:30pm Nov 28 All Day Revised UoM Inflation Expectations CB Leading Index m/m 3.1% 0.1% 0.7% Crude Oil Inventories 0.4M Natural Gas Storage -45B Bank Holiday
  • 4. GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW MCX GOLD on its daily charts showed sideways to bearish movement due to comex weakness and closed around the upper band of triangle pattern. If it able to break 30500 then breakout of triangle pattern on higher side is expected and it may find resistance around 31150. On other hand if it maintains on lower level then 29550 will act as major support. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 29500 for the targets of 2885028400 with stop loss of 30500. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 29550 28750 28000 30500 31165 32000 SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX SILVER last week showed bearish movement, took reversal from trendline acting as resistance, broke major support of 45950 and closed below it. Now, if this bear trend continues then it may find support around 42850 below which it may drag towards next support of 40500. Closing above 45950 may show some correction towards resistance level of 47000-47700. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell on highs for target of 43000, with stop loss of 46850. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 44240 42680 40660 45850 47560 49160
  • 5. CRUDEOIL TECHNICAL VIEW Crude oil on its daily chart broke 61.8% retracement but unable to sustain below it and showed correction towards its resistance level of 6110. Now, if it able to break resistance of 6110 then it may find next resistance around 50% retracement i.e. 6225. On lower level 5900 is act as support for it below which next support is seen around 5760. STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell on highs for the targets of 5750-5600 with stop loss of 6650. PIVOT TABLE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 5840 5650 5450 6065 6310 6510 COPPER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Copper moved in downward channel pattern found support near lower band and closed above its resistance of 440. Now, if it sustain above 440 then it may find resistance around upper band i.e. 455 closing above it indicates breakout of channel pattern and find strong resistance around 460. Below 435 again it may drag towards lower band around 425. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy above 447, with stop loss of 435 for the target of 459. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 436.70 426.85 417.40 450.35 460.15 471.50
  • 6. DISCLAIMER WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM