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North Carolina's Climate.  R. Boyles
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North Carolina's Climate. R. Boyles

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An overview of climate science and North Carolina's particular climate. Includes information on possible climate changes in NC.

An overview of climate science and North Carolina's particular climate. Includes information on possible climate changes in NC.

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  • 1. Ryan BoylesState ClimatologistNorth Carolina State Universityryan_boyles@ncsu.eduExtreme Weather Preparedness at the Regional LevelGreensboro, NCJune 11, 2013Climate Change -What it means for North Carolina
  • 2. About the State Climate Office• Public Service Center at NCSU• Statewide public resource for weatherand climate information and services– Extension of research to communityapplications– Research on NC weather and climate– Outreach– EducationExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 2
  • 3. Definitions• Global warming describes an averagetemperature increase of the Earth over time• Climate change describes how weatherpatterns will be affected around the globe– Changes in climate averages or in extremes oftemperature and precipitation– Location specificExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 3
  • 4. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 4•4LatitudeTopographyProximity to Oceans
  • 5. RESULT – We get it all• Insert collage of hazards photosEnvironmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 5
  • 6. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 6Variations in Climate• Short-term – Earth’s surface– Winter– Summer• Longer-term– Atmospheric composition– Earth’s surface
  • 7. Long-term Changes• Atmospheric Composition• Cloud type and amounts• Surface land/ocean– land use– vegetation– ice coverExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 7
  • 8. Climate Change: NC vs. GlobalTemperature Trends - NC vs Global-3-2-1012318951900190519101915192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005YearDeparturefrom1901-2000Avg(F)NC Temp Anomaly Global Temp Anomaly Linear (Global Temp Anomaly)Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 9
  • 9. Climate Change: NC vs. GlobalTemperature Trends - NC vs Global-3-2-1012318951900190519101915192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005YearDeparturefrom1901-2000Avg(F)NC Temp Anomaly Global Temp AnomalyExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 10
  • 10. Climate Change: NC vs. GlobalTemperature Trends - NC vs Global-3-2-1012318951900190519101915192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005YearDeparturefrom1901-2000Avg(F)NC Temp Anomaly Global Temp AnomalyLinear (NC Temp Anomaly) Linear (Global Temp Anomaly)Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 11
  • 11. Tree Ring ProxyNC Apr-Jun Rainfall Anomaly (estimated from Tree Rings)-6.00-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.00933 983 1033 1083 1133 1183 1233 1283 1333 1383 1433 1483 1533 1583 1633 1683 1733 1783 1833 1883 1933 1983YearDifferencefromMean(in)Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 13
  • 12. How do we predict?• Models– Weather– Seasonal climate– Long-term climate– Downscaling– ValidationExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 14
  • 13. Daily temperature bell curveExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 15•Source: 2012 IPCC Special Report
  • 14. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 16•Source: 2012 IPCC Special Report
  • 15. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 17•Source: 2012 IPCC Special Report
  • 16. What does it mean for NC?• NC is sensitive to weather– Lots of Hazards– Enormous exposure in agriculture,natural resources, tourismExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 18
  • 17. • Changes in Precip• NCA precip figExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 19
  • 18. Future Winters in NC• Probably more warm days in winter• Probably fewer very colds days• Probably fewer days with snow atlower elevationsExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 20
  • 19. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 21
  • 20. Future Springs Seasons• More warm days• Possibly more intense thunderstorms– We don’t think they will get weaker• Perhaps more tornadoes, hail– Much less certainExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 22
  • 21. Future Summers in NC• Likely more hot days, warm nights• Perhaps fewer days with rain– More days with intense rain• Perhaps more drought?Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 23
  • 22. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 24
  • 23. Ag Impacts• Heat, moisture stress– Timing, frequency of rain is critical– Increase need for irrigation• When it rains, it pours– Ponding in fields– More soil preparation• Pest impacts– Lower fungal risks?Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 25
  • 24. Future Autumns in NC• More intense hurricanes– Decrease in frequencyExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 26
  • 25. Future Coastline of NC• Sea level rise– Sea will continue to rise• likely to speed up– Depends on ice loss at poles, thermalexpansionExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 27
  • 26. So what?• North Carolina is vulnerable– Action to deal with today’s hazards willhelp with future risk• If we’ve seen it in the past, we’ll see itin the future– And maybe worse with global warmingExtreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 28
  • 27. What do we do about it?• NC is vulnerable to climate hazards• Climate science informs society– Society manages risk, not science– Actions come from societal discussion• We make these choicesEnvironmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 29
  • 28. ryan_boyles@ncsu.eduhttp://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu919-515-3056 or 877-718-5544
  • 29. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 31Needs: Data• All science develops with good datacollection– Need for better environmental, climatemonitoring• Data quality is critical– MUST be useful for decision makers
  • 30. Needs: Research• Models need to be calibrated toregional climate patterns– Requires focus on state-level dynamics• Statistical and dynamic downscalinghave limitations– A new hybrid approach needed?Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 32
  • 31. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 33Need: Applications• Climate science, data must get used– Not just by scientists• Need extension of science, data– To state, local agencies– To businesses– To all sectors sensitive to weather• Decision support tools– Driven by data, designed for end users– Calibrated climate forecasts for guidance
  • 32. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 34Need: Education• Lots of climate awareness, very littleclimate education• End users don’t know what models,data are appropriate to use• Climate education program needed– Sector policy makers, K-12– No state agency leading• Can University system do this?
  • 33. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 35Need: Collaboration• Scientists, users need to work moreclosely– Among various user sectors– Among various scientific arenas• Service connections– Climate scientists– Extension specialists– Field specialists