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Tactical Alpha Presentation April 2011
 

Tactical Alpha Presentation April 2011

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    Tactical Alpha Presentation April 2011 Tactical Alpha Presentation April 2011 Presentation Transcript

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    • DisclosureThe information contained in this report is based on sources considered to be reliable but is notrepresented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This report is designed to providecommentary on market strategy and the opinions expressed reflect the judgment of the author as ofthe date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute anoffer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc., asubsidiary of Regions Financial Corporation and its officers, directors shareholders, employees and Corporation, officers directors, shareholdersaffiliates and members of their families may have positions in these securities and may, as principal oragent, buy and sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this report. Insome instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the opinions expressed herein. An employee y p p p yof Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. may be a member of the Board of Directors of companies referredto in this report. Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investmentbanking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this report. Thebanking ffili t f Regions Financiall Cb ki affiliates of R i Fi i Corporation may serve or may h served as llenders t any of ti have d d to fthe companies or securities mentioned in this report. The securities and other investment productsdescribed in this report are: 1) Not insured by the FDIC, 2) Not deposits or other obligations of, norguaranteed by Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc., Regions Financial Corporation or any of theiraffiliates, 3) Subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Secular Bears Begin when PE’s are High……and the Average Length of a Secular Bear Market is 18 years. Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Last Secular Bear (1966 – 1982)…Not a good environment for “buy and hold” investing. Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Win by Not Losing S&P Average Annual Return 1990-2010 6.23% Your Average Annual Your Average Annual Return would have Return would haveIf you missed the been If you missed the been Best 10 Days 2.78% Worst 10 Days 10.13% Best 20 Days 0.52% Worst 20 Days 12.88% Best 30 Days -1.39% Worst 30 Days 15.17% Best 40 Days -3.16% Worst 40 Days 17.21% Your Average Annual Return would have R t ld h If you missed the been Best and Worst 10 Days 6.55% Best and Worst 20 Days y 6.81% Best and Worst 30 Days 6.90% Best and Worst 40 Days 6.85% Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Tactical Alpha Methodology1. Global allocation portfolio that can invest across 6 major asset classes 1. US Equity 2. International Equity 3. Fixed Income 4. Currencies 5. Commodities 6. Money Market (Cash)2.2 Relative Strength analysis across 1,000+ ETFs representing the 6 1 000+ major asset classes.3. The Portfolio is divided into 3 equal parts (or legs) and invested in the markets with the greatest Relative Strength 1. 1 33% i th strongest asset class (Leg 1) is the t t t l (L 2. 33% is the second strongest asset class (Leg 2) 3. 33% is US equity always (Leg 3)4. Monitor portfolio daily for changes in Relative Strength5. Maximum of 66% Cash allowed in Bear Markets Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Improving our odds… Number of days each Asset Class was emphasized for inclusion in the tactical portfolio using Relative Strength analysis : BEAR BULL BEAR BULL Jan 2000 to June 2003 to Jan 2008 to Mar 2009 toAsset Class June 2003 Jan 2008 Mar 2009 Sept 2010 q yUS Equity 137 616 0 264Intl Equity 0 1555 12 391Commodities 777 1008 201 145Foreign Currencies 0 0 203 0Fixed Income 851 0 148 99Cash/Money Market 735 171 316 203Total Days 1250 1675 440 560 Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Trading history for the portfolioAsset Classes emphasized and dates of Portfolio Changes Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Tactical Alpha Current Holdings March 31 2011Name Ticker % WeightRydex S&P Equal Weight RSP 28.61PowerShares DB SilP Sh Silver DBS 17.53 17 53PowerShares DB Agriculture DBA 15.9First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index FDN 7.89First Trust Consumer Disc AlphaDEX FXD 7.49First Trust NASDAQ-100-Tech Index QTEC 7.21First Trust Materials AlphaDEX FXZ 6.95First Trust Financials AlphaDEX FXO 6.67Default Cash 1.75 1 75Total 100 Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Tactical Alpha Performance Through March 31 2011 Results are grossAnnual Returns 2007 2008 2009 2010Tactical Alpha 7.97 7 97 -9 17 9.17 23.40 23 40 12.35 12 35SP500 5.49 -37.00 26.46 15.06MonthlyReturns Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11Tactical Al hT ti l Alpha -1.81 1 81 2.28 2 28 0.93 0 93SP500 2.37 3.43 0.04 Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Why doesn’t everyone do this?1. Relative Strength forces us to do what is unnatural- there may be no fundamental reason that can be found for the shift.2. Hold onto the Winners Long Term and Sell the Losers QUICKLY! 80% of the profits come from 20% of the trades.3. Difficult to hold the course at turning points- nobody can catch the top or the bottom.4. Choppy markets are very frustrating. Like a sail boat luffing in light wind waiting for the next gust.5. Requires discipline, time and broker discretion. Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Account Information for Tactical Alpha Strategy• The strategy is Core Growth.• Minimum account size is $50,000.• The strategy is deployed in a brokerage account or an IRA held at Morgan Keegan.• All accounts are individually titled. There is no co-mingling of assets.• Complete t C l t transparency of holdings through the Morgan f h ldi th h th M Keegan Client website.• Client will receive a monthly statement and quarterly performance reporting reporting.• Management Fee of 1.5% annually on the first $1 Million.• The portfolio is managed on a discretionary basis by Trey Haydon, Morgan Keegan Atlanta.• For more information please call 404-240-6700. Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency
    • Disclosure Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPCNot FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee | Not a Deposit | Not Insured by Any Government Agency