trendwatching.com’s PRESUMERS

PRESUMERSThe product, the story, the status: why consumer involvement with products and
services pre-launch is set to go mainstream.
trendwatching.com’s free Monthly Trend Briefing November 2012
trendwatching.com/trends/presumers

presumerswww.trendwatching.com 2
Definition:
In today’s EXPECTATION ECONOMY, consumers want the best, they want it
now and first, and they want real, human connection, too.
In fact, they demand all that. Thanks to crowdsourcing platforms and new
manufacturing technologies that are finally tipping into the mainstream
(and a cult of entrepreneurialism at large), consumers are increasingly
PRESUMERS; able to satisfy those demands through engagement with
products and services pre-launch*.
Whether it’s all about the perfect product, or the excitement of being a
passionate supporter, PRESUMERS love to get involved with, push, fund, and
promote products and services before they are realized.
INNOVATIVE ‘PRESUMPTION’
BRANDS
NICHE CROWDFUNDING
PLATFORMS (+PROJECTS)
MASS CROWDFUNDING
PLATFORMS (+PROJECTS)
* Obviously consumer involvement in products and services pre-launch has been building
for years. Think co-creation / CUSTOMER-MADE which is still an active trend. But a
consumer engaging in co-creation is often looking to showcase his or her own design or
marketing talent, while PRESUMERS are primarily about getting what they want – ideally
a great product AND an amazing STATUS STORY – by getting involved early.
PRESUMERS Examples:

Consumers in developed economies face choice-
saturation. Their response? Worshipping the cult of
NEWISM, with its (legitimate) promise of newer, more,
better, special, faster and so on.
The ultimate in NEWISM? Consuming in the future
tense. No wonder PRESUMERS are coming together
around pre-launch products or services they love: by
helping to make a product become a reality through
funding and feedbacking and supporting, they will be
the first to have it – preferably with added perks – when
it is finally realized. It doesn’t get more ‘newer’ or
‘FIRSTISM’ than that.
Status has always been THE driver deep at the
heart of all consumer behavior. When PRESUMERS
connect with a pre-launch product or service, and
support that project towards launch, it makes for
a great STATUS STORY to tell, tweet, post, and
otherwise share.
So, PRESUMING puts consumers one step ahead: not
only the status of having the right product, but also the
status of having been involved pre-launch.
STATUS STORIES are even more potent if they’re not
simply about a great product or service, but about a
broader movement or cause that the consumer believes
in, providing a sense of belonging that goes beyond the
thrill of possession.
Now, many PRESUMERS are passionate about the
products they support, which is why Kickstarter (for
example) can claim that a product idea is eight times
more likely to be fully funded on Kickstarter than sold
and successfully launched through a US corporation.
It also helps explain how US-based Razoo, an
early crowdfunding platform focused on non-profits,
announced in August 2012 that it had hit USD 100
million raised for projects it hosted on the site.
1. FIRSTISM: 2.STORIES: 3. BELONGING:
More, faster, better,
special, now
Great story,
great status
Come together,
right now
Drivers | So why will PRESUMERS be more numerous, more relevant, more active, and more powerful in the coming
years? Here are five drivers turning consumers into PRESUMERS:

Consumers LOVE online because when it comes to
online consumption, they can act (participate, talk,
create, adjust) to get what they want. Now, they expect
the same from ‘offline’ consumption.
The pre-launch engagement that defines PRESUMING
facilitates that kind of dialogue. PRESUMERS don’t just
pre-buy: they also buy into a two-way relationship in
which they get to express their desires, and brands get
valuable, early feedback.
And thanks to the 2012 Jumpstart our Business
Startups (JOBS) Act – US legislation that eases several
federal financial regulations, and for the first time allows
unaccredited small investors / consumers to buy equity
in startups – PRESUMERS in the US can in the near
future purchase equity in the projects they support.
That’s how quite a few PRESUMERS will actually
become CUSTOWNERS, too. How big could this get?
Well, if US citizens would invest one tenth of what they
gamble each year, that would equate to USD 55 billion
(Source: Fundable, September 2012) ;-) Other countries
to follow soon?
A platform for PRESUMERS has been building steadily in
the biz world, thanks to the popularity of crowdfunding*
and the MAKE IT YOURSELF movement, and to the cult
of entrepreneurialism at large.
First, some crowdfunding stats:
• By April 2012, there were 452 crowdfunding platforms
operating globally, up from 100 in 2007 (Source:
Massolution/The Economist, May 2012).
• In 2009, crowdfunded platforms raised a total of USD
530 million. In 2011 that figure was USD 1.4 billion. This
year, that’s on track to double to USD 2.8 billion (Source:
Massolution/The Economist, May 2012).
• Between launch in 2009 and February 2012, Kickstarter
had no USD 1 million projects. Now, twelve projects
have raised more than USD 1 million.
* Now, we need to talk INTENT here, too: while PRESUMERS
is about brands/business stating their plans for new products
and consumers responding, INTENT is about consumers
stating their desires or purchasing intentions, and brands
responding. You can think of INTENT and PRESUMERS as two
sides of the same coin: brands and customers talking to each
other before products and services are launched.
4. OFF = ON 5. NEW PLATFORMS:
Drivers | So why will PRESUMERS be more numerous, more relevant, more active, and more powerful in the coming
years? Here are five drivers turning consumers into PRESUMERS:
Online is offline
is online...
Disrupted funding, making and selling
On to MAKE IT YOURSELF, and rampant entrpreneuralism:
first of all, there’s a new generation of small-time makers
who are using technologies such as 3D printing to
manufacture products, that just a few years ago, could only
roll off factory lines.
The cost of an industrial printer has fallen dramatically, from
around USD 800,000 in 1999, to around USD 15,000 today
(Source: The Economist, September 2012). Home versions now
cost around USD 1,000 (Source: The Economist, September
2012). Meanwhile, research firm Wohlers Associates says
the market for 3D printed products is currently worth USD
1.3 billion a year; they estimate it will rise to USD 3.1 billion
by 2016, and USD 5.2 billion by 2020.
Add to this the by now countless number of online
entrepreneurs and innovators (TEENPRENEURS
anyone?), and you’re looking at a true avalanche of small
and big initiatives that will forever look for funding from ‘the
people’, while appealing to those who want the chance to
connect with a ‘special’ product before launch. Indeed,
not only do makers allow PRESUMERS to connect with
that special product, they let them tailor it to their individual
specifications. How’s that for the Long Tail of physical
objects? ;-)

So who is PRESUMING?
As you’ll see in the examples below, PRESUMERS are drawn from all over the world and they’re
passionate about all kinds of products and services.
But it’s still possible to draw up a bit of a profile, based on September 2012 data on Kickstarter
users by Quantcast:
• Kickstarter users are predominantly (62%) male.
• 50% are between 18 and 34, and 20% are between 34 to 44.
• Almost half (48%) are college educated. That’s against 30.4% of Americans aged over 25 having
a college degree (Source: US Census Bureau, February 2012).
• 45% earn more than USD 50,000 a year.
In other words, PRESUMERS are mainstream consumers. If a little better educated than usual ;-)
Remember, more consumers are becoming PRESUMERS every day: we’ll keep tracking the
evolution of the PRESUMER profile, and you should too!
A 1 miniute summary of trendwatching.com’s Trend
Briefing on PRESUMERS
See the infographic »

MASSCROWDFUNDINGPLATFORMS(+PROJECTS)
Probably the best known crowdfunding platform, US-based Kickstarter bills itself
as the world’s largest crowdfunding platform for creative projects. Project creators
post details of their project, stating a funding target and deadline. Projects are vetted
by Kickstarter. Meanwhile, backers pledge money in return for a “reward”: typically a
promise of the product or experience in question. From launch, only US residents were
allowed by Kickstarter as project creators; in October 2012 the site also opened to
UK-based project creators. Backers are only charged if the project achieves its target
funding, and goes into production. Kickstarter takes a 5% fee from the funding total of
successfully funded projects. By September 2012, Kickstarter had launched 73,065
successful projects (think the Pebble Watch, Elevation iPhone Dock, and Ouya
Games Console), and helped successfully backed projects – ranging from technology,
to design and fashion, to film and theatre – raise USD 377 million.
Kickstarter: Platform for creative projects
The Porthole is a glass infusion vessel designed by
Martin Kastner of the Chicago-based Crucial Detail
design studio. Intended to be used to make cock-
tails, salad dressings, tea, coffee and other infusions,
the vessel was inspired by the shape of a submarine
porthole, and the way such a porthole offers a, “win-
dow on to another world”. A small batch of Porthole
vessels were handmade at Crucial Detail, before the
design studio took to Kickstarter to raise funds for a
first production run. On September 4 2012, funding
closed: Crucial Detail had raised USD 736,112 from
4,270 enthusiastic PRESUMERS.
The Porthole: Funded
glass infusion vessel

Funded in June 2012 on Kickstarter, Roominate is
a new, engineering-themed toy for girls. Motivated
by the fact that fewer than 11% of engineers are
women, toy startup Maykah designed a kit of
wooden building pieces and circuit components
with which a child can use her creativity to design,
build, wire, and decorate her own unique interactive
room. PRESUMERS who shared Maykah’s message
of gender equality – and loved the toy – funded the
product to the tune of USD 85,000.
Sedition Wars is a horror-themed tactical board
game from renowned game designer and figurine
maker Mike McVey (Studio McVey). Although
already an established name in the games world, in
June 2012 McVey used crowdfunding to raise pre-
production funds, and build a buzz around the game
pre-launch. Sedition Wars raised USD 950,000.
Roominate: Engineering
toy for girls
Sedition Wars - Battle for
Alabaster Game

Soon to launch, MATTER is a major new UK/
US publication, focused on long-form journalism
about science, technology and ideas. A community
came together on Kickstarter to provide start-up
funds, and also build a pre-launch buzz around
the magazine. Benefits for these PRESUMERS will
include meetings with the editorial team and life-time
guaranteed subscription.
MATTER: Start-up funds for
long-form journalism mag
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In September 2012, four-piece Singaporean indie
rock band Cashew Chemists successfully
crowdfunded SGD 1135 from 40 backers on
Togather.Asia, for the production of their debut
album. Cashew Chemist’s eponymous debut will be
released in Q4 2012.
Singapore-based ToGather.Asia is the first Asian
crowdfunding portal targeted at projects around
the region. Launched in July 2012, the site allows
creators to submit creative projects, which are
approved by the site before being posted. Backers
can pledge money to projects, in return for the
promise of rewards.
Cashew Chemists:
Production for rock band
ToGather.Asia: Regional
Asian portal

In June 2012 notable Beijing bookshop the One Way
Street Library raised USD 37,000 via DemoHour.
The money was used to fund a business re-location
to Solana, a centrally-located shopping complex
popular as a spot for book launches and literary
salons.
Founded in May 2011 in Beijing, DemoHour is
China’s first crowdfunding platform. Operating on
the standard crowdfunding model, creators post
projects that backers can pledge money to in
return for rewards that include products, special
experiences, and access to creators. DemoHour
takes a 10% cut of funds pledged to successfully
funded projects. By July 2012, 70 projects posted on
DemoHour had hit their funding target.
OneWayStreetLibrary:
Beijingbookshopre-location
DemoHour: First Chinese
platform

EscapetheCity:Career
transitioncommunity
Crowdcube: Equity
crowdfunding
Companies that achieved investment via Crowdcube
include UK-based Escape the City, an online
platform that helps professionals make career
transitions. In June 2012 Escape the City raised GBP
600,000 on Crowdcube in two weeks, and now
hosts a community of over 87,000 professionals.
In February 2011 UK-based Crowdcube launched
as “the world’s first equity crowdfunding platform”.
Small businesses seeking investment can post
on the site, and backers – who can invest as little
as GBP 10 – become owners of equity in the
companies they invest in. Crowdcube takes a 5%
cut of all successful fundraising. By July 2012 it had
raised GBP 3.7 million for 21 companies.

In October 2011, Free Bread Inc launched, offering
fresh gluten, nut, soy and sugar free bread around
New York City. The business was founded by
celiac disease sufferer Karen Freer, and raised USD
10,771 in start-up funds on crowdfunding platform
Indiegogo.
US-based Indiegogo was launched at the Sundance
Film Festival in 2008. Intially focused on film, the
platform is now open to creative projects of all kinds,
ranging from technology, to design, to community and
charity projects. Indiegogo allows project creators
anywhere in the world to post a project to the site, and
projects are not vetted. Money pledged by backers
is distributed to project creators immediately, and if
a project does not reach its funding target it is up to
project creators to refund their backers. Indiegogo
takes a 4% funding total fee from successfully funded
projects, and 9% from unsuccessful projects.
FreeBreadIncLaunch
Indiegogo: International
crowdfunding

Launched in Melbourne, Australia in August
2012, Who Gives a Crap is a new brand of toilet
paper dedicated to building toilets in the developing
world. Motivated by news that 2.4 billion people do
not have access to basic sanitation, founder Simon
Griffiths set out to create a use-every-day product
that could help change this. Who Gives a Crap will
give 50% of all profits to help build new toilets in the
developing world, forever. The new brand turned to
Indiegogo to raise funds and support. PRESUMERS
embraced them, funding USD 50,000 of pre-sales in
50 hours.
Who Gives a Crap? Toilet
Paper
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Successfully funded start-ups on Fundable include
US-based Lulu Blossom, a new range of all-natural
beauty and skincare products. Lulu Blossom raised
USD 4,050 on Fundable in August 2012.
Launched in May 2012, Fundable is a US-
based equity crowdfunding platform for start-up
companies. Fundable aims to take advantage of the
2012 JOBS Act legislation in the US, which for the
first time will allow non-accredited investors to buy
equity in start-ups. Implementation of the law will
not be complete until January 2013; until then start-
ups on Fundable may only offer “rewards”, such as
products or experiences, to investors. Start-ups
must provide a business pitch video, and are vetted
by Fundable before being hosted on the site.
LuluBlossom:Beauty&
skincareproducts
Fundable: Equity
crowdfunding for start-ups

Mi Huerto Urbano is a Mexico-based startup,
offering a kit intended to allow anyone to create
their own urban garden. The kit allows users to
grow arugula, lettuce, basil, habanero peppers,
strawberries and many spices. With busy city-
dwellers in mind, the garden is designed to be low-
maintenance: growers need only add water and
nutrients once a week. By October 2012, Mi Huerto
Urbano had raised USD 7,000 of its USD 17,000
funding target on Idea.me.
Launched in August 2011, Idea.me is Latin
America’s leading crowdfunding platform. In August
2012 the Argentina-based site bought Brazilian
competitor Movare, consolidating its market lead
in Latin America. In its first year, the site grew from
an initial base of 250 users to 25,000 users, and 70
project backers to 5,000.
MiHuertoUrbano(MyCity
Garden)Kit
Idea.me: Leading Latin
American platform

Villy Custom, from Dallas, Texas, is on a mission
to bring fashion to the bicycle. Aiming to change
the way consumers see and purchase bikes, Villy
Custom will allow customers to design their “dream
bicycle” online, for assembly in Dallas. In September
2012 Villy Custom reached their USD 10,000 funding
target on Rock the Post.
Launched in October 2010, US-based Rock The
Post combines crowdfunding and social networking,
allowing consumers to form communities around
a start-up business, and provide funds, time and
advice, or materials in return for rewards. Users can
also follow one another, and share details on the
projects they are supporting.
VillyCustom:Fashion
bicycledesign
Rock The Post: Crowdfunding
& social networking

The Stinger 2 running shoe from US-based Spira
Footwear is a lightweight running trainer containing
Spira’s special WaveSpring technology. The sole of
the shoe contains two small springs in the forefoot
and one in the heel: Spira claim this ensures the
shoes cushion impact, and return energy more
effectively than any other trainer on the market.
According to Spira, runners wearing the original
Spira trainer won over 150 marathons and major
races internationally. The Stinger 2 is currently
crowdfunding on RocketHub, and by early October
had exceeded its USD 25,000 goal, having raised
USD 36,160.
US-based RocketHub is a crowdfunding platform
open to creators anywhere in the world. Projects
submitted can take financial pledges from “fuelers”,
who receive perks if their chosen project achieves its
funding target. Fuelers can also vote for a project to
be put forward for “Launchpad Opportunities”: these
are business and marketing assistance schemes
offered by RocketHub, such as a chance to work
with leading publicists.
SpiraStinger 2Running
Shoe
RocketHub: International
funding community

NICHECROWDFUNDINGPLATFORMS(+PROJECTS)
Pie Corps is an artisanal pie company that sells
quality, handmade sweet and savoury pies. In April
2012 the company raised USD 7,150 on Lucky Ant,
using the money to fund the launch of their first retail
location in Brooklyn. The store opened in June.
New-York based Lucky Ant claims to be the world’s
first hyper-local crowdfunding site. The site – which
aims to let consumers help shape the consumer
landscape in their area – features one local business
a week for consumers to fund and support. Users of
the site can pledge money to their chosen business,
in return for rewards such as free products, and VIP
access to stores.
PieCorps:Artisanalpie
launch
Lucky Ant: Hyper-local
crowdfunding

Tink, a third person action adventure game from
German studio Mimimi Production, is set in a world
in which everything is made of paper and glue. The
game won the Game Connection Europe Best Project
2012 award. Mimimi Productions started seeking
funding for Tink, and by September 2012 had raised
EUR 20,700 of their EUR 350,000 target. Mimimi
Productions no doubt hope to follow in the footsteps of
San Francisco-based games developers Double Fine
Productions, who in March 2012 raised USD 3.3 million
on Kickstarter for their new point-and-click adventure
game, Double Fine Adventure.
Launched in September 2012, Gambitious is a
Netherlands-based crowdfunding site connecting
devoted gamers to game developers. Gamers can
support video game ideas, providing funds and
helping to build a pre-launch buzz around their
chosen games. Backers in Europe are also able to
buy equity in their chosen game idea, turning them
from PRESUMERS into CUSTOWNERS.
Tink:Adventuregame
Gambitious: Crowdfunding
for games

Launched in March 2012, Jakarta-based Wujudkan
is a crowdfunding platform focused on creative
projects in Indonesia. The site calls on Indonesian
creative talents to post their projects, which backers
can fund by pledging money in return for rewards
such as special access to live performances,
and credits on finished work. In May 2012, film
project Atambua 39° Celsius, posted by renowned
director Rira Riza, raised USD 32,000 on Wujudkan.
The film tells the story of two Atambua refugees.
Wujudkan.com: Indonesian
platform
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Launched August 2012 after achieving its USD 2,000
funding target on Appstori, US-based Trivi.al is a new
trivia-based social game for iPhone. Users compete
against one another to answer three rounds of trivia
questions, and can compare their “IQ Score” with
other players. The app achieved 30,000 downloads
during its first 30 days after release.
Launched in April 2012, New-York-based AppStori
is a niche crowdfunding and collaborative
development platform for smartphone apps. The site
takes the standard crowdfunding model and injects
more interaction between consumers and makers.
App lovers can search for and fund the apps they
want; and also make connections with developers
to help shape pre-launch ideas, provide feedback
on beta versions, and build pre-launch communities
around their favourite apps.
Trivi.al:Trivia&socialappAppStori: App platform

The Importance of Being Open is a 22 minute
‘dramedy’ about a poly-amorous relationship,
currently seeking USD 10,000 on Offbeatr. The
project creator claims his intention is to produce
a film that is sexually explicit, but also contains
compelling characters.
Launched in August 2012, Offbeatr is an LA-based
crowdfunding platform for the adult entertainment
industry. Project directors can post details of
proposed adult content, which backers can
support by pledging money in return for rewards.
All proposed projects must have a reward. Digital
downloads available for users are optional, should
the project be successfully funded and go into
production.
TheImportanceofBeing
OpenFilm
Offbeatr: Adult
entertainment platform

INNOVATIVE ‘PRESUMPTION’ BRANDS
In July 2012 US-based App.net founder Dalton Caldwell
wrote a blog post entitled “What Twitter Could Have
Been”. The positive response prompted him to found
App.net, a new, subscription-only, ad-free social network
in which users own and control all their content and data.
App.net ran its own crowdfunding campaign to raise
starting capital, and in the process built an enthusiastic
founding community, significant online buzz, and
mainstream media attention. By August 2012 – App.net’s
self-imposed funding deadline – the site had raised over
USD 800,000 from over 12,000 backers. The network is
now open, and membership is USD 36 for one year.
nched in September 2012, Hong Kong based
ZAOZAO bills itself “Your social pretailer”. The new
online platform allows fashion designers to post pre-
launch products and get funds for production via the
site’s community of fashion-loving crowdfunders.
App.net:Ad-freesocial
networkZAOZAO: Social pretailer

Founded in June 2012, music community and pre-
selling platform US-based ZIIBRA aims to let up-
and-coming and established musicians connect with
fans. In the week before release, artists can upload
their new music to ZIIBRA – tagline “Play it forward”
– and make it available for pre-sale. The more fans
who pre-buy the album, the lower the price becomes
for everyone: turning fans who have pre-bought into
a community motivated to to become ambassadors
for the album, share their discovery, and persuade
others to buy.
Launched in February 2012, Cut on Your Bias, is
an online platform where fashion designers are
invited to post product ideas. Site users are then
able to gather around posted concepts, customize
designs, and vote on their favorites. The most
popular customized designs go into production and
are made available to buy through the site: lucky
PRESUMERS who voted for the winning designs are
entitled to a 25% discount on the sale price.
ZIIBRA:Pre-salemusic
communityCut on Your Bias

Denmark-based MUUSE host designs from the
world’s top fashion schools — with a focus on
premium and hand-crafted clothing — for users to
vote on. Users can express their interest in designs
exhibited in the “Concept” area of the website, and
the designs that receive the most votes are sent for
manufacture, and become available to buy as limited
editions through the site.
Launched in Sept 2012, US-based Makeably, is
a new marketplace for custom-made designed
objects. Buyers can search through designs in
categories ranging from clothes and shoes, to toys,
to household goods. Once they have settled on a
design, a purchaser can then communicate with the
designer to make customization requests, and settle
on a price and a delivery date. The designer is then
responsible for manufacture and delivery of the item.
MUUSE:Emergingfashion
designersplatform
Makeably: Custom-made
creative items

No, not every consumer will want to be a PRESUMER, and those
who do want to be one, don’t necessarily want to be one all the time.
The mass markets of the future will still be those of zero-consumer-effort-
required products and services.
But PRESUMERS have opened the lid on a new kind of consumer
experience, one that revolves around getting the best and most relevant
products and services, and/or the status that comes with involvement
(from self-serving to serving the greater good), and the lid is not going to
be put back.
Need / want to get going with PRESUMERS yourself? Why not:
• Scan the platforms featured in this Trend Briefing for projects, firms,
designers, entrepreneurs etc. you can or should partner with. Bring their
products and ideas to your customer base.
• Set up a new community or social network that enables your customers
to engage with / support one of your products or services pre-launch.
• Partner with independent designers / makers. PRESUMERS choose the
best design, and you make and sell them. Or, if you’re an independent
designer / maker, find a big brand and persuade them to do this!
• Last but not least, follow the lead of major crowdfunding platforms, and
pre-sell at a range of prices. PRESUMERS may actually pay more to
get innovative extras, such as limited edition products, or behind-the-
scenes meetings / access to you.
NEXT
Basically, add PRESUMERS to your vocabulary, embrace PREDUCTION, not just production, consider
becoming a PRETAILER, and get going!
Meanwhile, we’re getting ready to publish our 10 Trends for 2013 Trend Briefing (free!) so make sure
you (pre-)subscribe!

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