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Presentation ev bruxelles

  1. 1. Electric vehicle market An energy perspective Lénaïc Georgelin European Commission, DG Research & Innovation Energy conversion & distribution systems“Recharging the European Electric Vehicle Market”, Brussels, 22/02/2012
  2. 2. The policy framework• 2007 – Climate & Energy policy: 20-20-20 / Roadmap 2050• 2008 - European Strategic Energy Technologies Plan – SET Plan• 2009 - 3rd internal energy market package• 2011 - Energy efficiency directive• 2011 - 2050 Energy Roadmap• 2011 - Strategic Transport Technology Plan• 2011 - Communication on clean transport systems• 2011 - Transport White Paper – 2050 perspective
  3. 3. The main energy challenges Tomorrow:Today - More renewable/distributed energy ore - Security of Supply - Competitiveness - Pan-European Network Pan- -> Smart Grids
  4. 4. Energy challenges and electro-mobility Energy Trader Retailer Power Payment (energy) Data Flow Payment Payment (energy) (energy incl. grid usage fee) Monetary Flow Grid Usage Fee Accounting Data Customer Power Producer TSO DSO (EV) Grid Usage Fee/ Balancing Energy Measurement Data Power Plant Transmission Grid Distribution Grid Metering kWh Point Transformer CP CP = Charging Pole CS = Connecting Sleeve CS Public Area TSO = Transmission System Operator DSO = Distribution System Operator
  5. 5. Energy challenges and electro-mobility A peak demand week in December (100% EV penetration) Non-optimized charging Optimized charging (unidirectional) 100 100 Non-optimised EV charging Net demand Optimised EV charging (MW) Net demand 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 GW 50GW 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 Net demand = Net demand = 10 10 Non EV demand - Wind Non EV demand - Wind 0 0 1 25 49 73 97 121 145 1 25 49 73 97 121 145 Time (hours) Time (hours)EV Charging coinciding with peak demand periods EV Charging optimized during low demand periods Source: G4V project
  6. 6. Main framework: smart-grid, EV & research SET Plan European Electricity Grids Initiative• 2010-2018 Roadmap forsmart grid RD&D• 2010-2012 Implementationplan• R&D budget: €2 billion• Contains the functionalproject ” Integration ofelectric vehicles”, with R&Dcost estimate of 100 M€.
  7. 7. Main framework: smart-grid, EV & research European Green Car Initiative (EGCI)• PPP from recoverypackage (2008-9)• European roadmap forelectrification of roadtransport• R&D budget: €1 billion(€500 million from FP7matched by a similaramount from industry andMember States)• EIB loans: €4 billion(additional amount for2009-2010)
  8. 8. Project – G4V • Development of an analytical method to assess the impact of the mass introduction of EV and PHEV on the electricity grids • Recommendations for technological upgrading of the grid infrastructure and related ICT system solutions for grid management • Recommendations for policy makers to foster electric mobility (regulations and incentives) • Identification of business opportunities for different stakeholders groups • Elaboration of standardisation proposals => Joint European Approach • Definition of future required RTD activities and projects12 partners8 countriesTotal budget 3.8M€
  9. 9. Project – MERGE • Development of a management and control concept to facilitate the transition from conventional to electric vehicles • Adoption of an evaluation tools to model, analyze, and optimize electric networks for EV integration • Assessment of Dispersed Energy Resources (DER) deployment in electro-mobility18 partners8 countriesTotal budget 4.4M€
  10. 10. Deploying electric vehicles: some conclusions• New grid planning and operations tools necessary• Smart charging of paramount important (ICT key enabler)• Slow/home charging preferred short-term option• Fast/public charging important for range anxiety• Possible need for local grid reinforcement• Standardisation and interoperability needed• New business models / regulation required• V2G business case for longer-term• Deployment of smart charging offers opportunity - to store renewable energy… … to avoid curtailment of intermittent generation capacity
  11. 11. More information• DG Research & Innovation: Energy: Transport:• European Electricity Grid Initiative• European Green Car Initiative
  12. 12. Boosting the EV market in EuropeConsumer Acceptance, New Business Models and Value Chains
  13. 13. Boosting the EV market in EuropeChairman’s Opening Remarks
  14. 14. 2011 Overview: Did Not Live Up To Its Hype But SolidFoundation Was Laid For Coming Years Sales of Electric Vehicles were lower than expected due to the delay in launches and1 Japan’s earthquake 2 There were approximately 14 Electric Vehicles launched globally in 2011 despite low sales 3 Vehicle Manufacturers have increased technology/market partnerships for progressing into EV launch phase – There were more than 5 joint ventures by major OEMs in 2011 Implementation of charging infrastructure has gathered pace -Chademo type quick4 charging stations has increased to about 950 globally Federal Governments providing new subsidies to EV and implementing - More than 9 5 regions announced incentives for EVs in 2011 More governments extending benefits to EVs and VMs expanding markets - Plug-car 6 grant has been extended until 2015 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 3
  15. 15. Global Electric Vehicle sales until December 2011 has been about 43,000vehicles Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Vehicle Sales (World), 2011 North Europe APAC America Non- traditional VMs Traditional 36% VMs 64% Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 4
  16. 16. Implementation of charging infrastructure has gathered pace -Chademo type quick charging stations has increased to about 950 globally. 400 installed in 2011, out of which 120 were installed in Europe•More than 7,000 public charging stations have been installed between 2010/11 globally, about 3,800 in USA•In 2010, the EV project was launched in North America which is working towards deploying 14,000 level 2and 400 DC fast charging stations across North America by 2013.They will be deployed in six states andDistrict of Columbia and across 18 major and metropolitan cities. Top 10 Countries for EVs Charging Infrastructure Europe, 2011 Leading states of EVs Charging Infrastructure U.S.A, 2011 1. Arizona 1. United Kingdom 2. California 2. France 3. District of 3. Germany Columbia 4. Scandinavia 4. Florida 5. Spain 5. Hawaii 6. Michigan 6. Italy 7. New York 7. Portugal High >500 8. Oregon 8. Netherlands Medium 200-500 9. Tennessee 9. Sweden Low <200 10. Texas 10. Austria 11. Washington Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 5
  17. 17. Federal Governments providing new subsidies to EV – More than 9regions announced incentives for EVs in 2011 Belgium, India, Estonia, Portugal , Turkey are some of the countries who have announced fresh incentives /subsidies to EVs Countries like UK, Ireland and Romania has started implementing subsidies in 2011, while Spain increased the maximum incentive from €6,000 to €7,000.Belgium Vehicle powered by electric motors exclusively receive 30% reduction with a maximum of €9,190. Electric vehicles pay the lowest rate of tax under the registration tax (€ 61.50) and under annual circulation tax(€ 71.28). Benefit in kind for the private use of a zero emission vehicle as a company car is taxed at the lowest rate (€500- €750).Portugal Purchasers of electric vehicles receive a premium of €5,000 (limited to 5,000 vehicles). Electric vehicles are exempt from registration tax ISV and annual circulation tax.Turkey Reduction of special consumption tax according to the motor power (< 85kW – 3%, >85<125kW – 7%, >125kW – 15%). India Indian government has announced 20% incentive on the cost of the electric vehicle. For two-wheelers it is maximum up to Rs.5,000 and electric cars Rs.100,000 Spain Regional governments will provide grant incentives between €2,000 - €7,000 for electric, hybrid, fuel cell, CNG and LPG vehicles.Ireland Electric vehicles will receive benefit from VRT relief of maximum €5,000.Romania Electric cars will be exempt for the special pollution tax. Exempt from registration tax.Estonia 50% reduction in electric vehicles priced up to €18,000 and €1,000 on installation of residential charging station. Israel Tax incentive with only 10% purchase tax on electric vehicles compared with 90% on regular cars . Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 6
  18. 18. More governments extending benefits to EVs and VMs expandingmarkets – Plug-car grant has been extended until 2015 and including vans for 20%incentive up to £8,000 The plugged in places program in the Plugged-in The program tenders matched funding to Places Project businesses and public sector to support UK was extended to 8 regions in 2011 installation of electric vehicle charging stations and formulated a strategy for execution across the United Kingdom. Plug in Car The grant provides 25% funding to electric Grant vehicles up to £5,000 and 20% or maximum Scotland £8,000 to vans. It has been extended until 2015. Office of Low It is concerned with ultra-low emission vehicles Emission Northern Ireland Vehicle and has been established to manage and fund (OLEV) funds the various programs such as plugged-in places, plug in car and van grant. The electric vehicle initiative launched by the North East clean energy ministerial office, seeks to Greater Manchester facilitate the global deployment of electric Midlands vehicles. The members of the initiative include China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, East of England India, Japan, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Milton Keynes Sweden, the United States, and the United London Kingdom. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 7
  19. 19. Boosting the EV market in EuropePanel Session 2:The Role of the EV Market in Boosting Consumer Adoption
  20. 20. Global EV Market Size and Forecasts Plus EU Focus 2
  21. 21. Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential Sales of 2.2 M inF&S Scenario by 2017 Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis (World), 2009-2017 2020 (% of Scenario’s 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Car Sales)Optimistic 5,060 16,100 43,200 248,400 816,200 1,373,200 2,094,800 2,865,200 3,531,500 10-12%Frost & Sullivan 5,060 16,100 43,200 110,100 286,500 735,800 1,314,300 1,741,000 2,228,400 5-7%Conservative 5,060 16,100 43,200 66,500 178,600 318,300 451,000 602,400 796,800 2-4% Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan 3
  22. 22. EV Breakdown By Region – CEVs to Account for 69% Share In Europe; NAto Witness More PHEVs with a 38% Share Electric Vehicle Market: EV Breakdown By Region – Sales Estimates (World), 2017 2.2 Million 22% 2% 29% 1% 38% 6% 4% 4% 2% 1% 7% 10% 43,200 69% 3% 26% 38% 46% 2% 2% 13% 59% 13% 14% 3% 60% 70% 56% 2011 2017• eREV and PHEVs likely to account major share in the North American market driven by the virtue ofdemographics and customer driving characteristics => GM for eREVs. On the other hand, CEVs suitthe demographics for the Europe. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010 Source: Frost & Sullivan 4
  23. 23. Exemption in registration and car tax is the most common type of incentive offered Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Market : Government initiative towards deployment of Electric Vehicles Country Type of incentive in 2010 and 2011 Austria • €5000 rebate if vehicle charged with green electricity, €2500 with conventional electricity • Exemption from vehicle tax Belgium • Vehicle powered by electric motors exclusively receive 30% reduction with a maximum of €9,190. • Electric vehicles pay the lowest rate of tax under the registration tax (€ 61.50) and under annual circulation tax(€ 71.28). • Benefit in kind for the private use of a zero emission vehicle as a company car is taxed at the lowest rate (€500- €750). Denmark • No registration tax and owner tax • No “green ownership fee” France • €5000 rebate • No registration feeNetherlands • Exemption from car tax • No registration tax 5
  24. 24. Electric Vehicle Product Launches Global: C-Segment vehicle launches are critical, with about 19 models to be launched between 2012 and 2017 Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings, Global, 2010–2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 Future (till 2017) (Quadricycle and Sub-A) Microcars G-Wiz BUDDY Friendly Leon Twin Drive REVA Pure mobility Heuliez Microcar ZENN Twizy Z.E. NXG Seat 10 Renault REVA Nano EV Mega City YDEA TATA Aixam Mega Micro Vett C-Zero PSA i-MiEV Li – Car ED Smart NXR E-up! iQ based WILL IBE concept City Th!nk Mitsubishi REVA REVA VW Toyota 500 EV Heuliez BlueOn SEAT 18 Fiat Hyundai A PX iMiEV I0n PSA A-Class E-Cell Indica Vista Model X Mitsubishi Joule Daimler EV TATA Miles/Coda Optimal Energy A1 e-tron Audi A2 e-tron Audi B Zoe Z.E. Renault i10 Blueon 7 MiniE Hyundai BMW B0 based Pininfarina Re1 Fuji Heavy Honda Fit EV Focus Ford E46 Detroit Octavia Green E63 Detroit Electric MegaCity Golf blue- RAV4 EV C30 DRIVe Model X E Line Škoda Electric BMW e-motion Toyota Volvo Honda 22 C Leaf Fluence Z.E. VW Volt Chevrolet Nissan Renault C-Max Energi ? Ford F3DM BYD Blue-will PHEV Hyundaii C4 based Hatchback Jetta VW 200C Sedan Ray PHEV ? PSA Chrysler KIA Infiniti 57 Ampera Opel Nina PHEV FiskerNote: This is an indicative list rather not meant to be exhaustive 6
  25. 25. Electric Vehicle Product Launches Globally: About 18 sports cars to belaunched by 2017 Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings, Global, 2010–2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 Future (till 2017) XJ PHEV i8/ActiveE D V70 PHEV Volvo Jaguar BMW 7 Sonata Hyundai e6 BYD Model S Passat Tesla VW Solo SUV Denki Cube Ram PHEV PX-iMiEV Mitsubishi EV Nissan MPV Dodge SUV Velozzi Orlando PHEV M Class Daimler 9 Phoenix Motors Chevrolet ? 9-3 ePower Sports Estate Model X GM Saab X1 Open R4 Electric Roadster Tesla Elise Electric Luxury EV Infiniti 911 GT3R Th!nk Wrightspeed Roadster Audi Lightning GT Verde Lotus Electric PorscheSports Revenge V60 Electric Volvo 18 9.3 Cabrio Karma True Electric Survolt Sports car C-X75 R8 Fetish Venturi Sport Greentech Auto BMW Audi PHEV Fisker Auto Saab PSA Jaguar Vito E-Cell LCV Daimler Kangoo 7 Transit Ford Express Z.E. Minivan Shuttle Berlingo Partner ZAP Renault Electric Electric PSA PSA MiniCab MIEV Mitsubishi Note: This is an indicative list rather not meant to be exhaustive 41 7
  26. 26. Hybrid & Electric MCV and HCV Production by Drivetrain (Global): CombinedHybrid+Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus and Other Bus Production to Reach 307K by 2020 Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain (World), 2009-2020 400,000 Series-Parallel Parallel Series Electric Total Units: 307,858 30,487 EMEA 2020 350,000 132,859 Americas 2020 2020 Unit Shares 10,623 300,000 4,503 10,921 5,962 Americas Americas EMEA Production Units 250,000 Western Russia Rest of Europe North America Brazil Rest of 53% 48% 15% Europe Europe America 13% 200,000 Asia Asia 34% 37% 150,000 52,584 Asia 2020 26,825 100,000 16,869 14,277 1,948 50,000 Total Units: China Korea Japan India Rest of 6,934 Asia - 2009 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 2020 8
  27. 27. The Overview of Potential Business Models in Europe: Outright Salesand leasing concept preferred by key playersBusiness Model Nissan Leaf PSA C-Zero Vauxhall Ampera iMEVOutright • GB£30,990 (before • £33,155 (Before • £37,250 (Before • £28,990 (BeforePurchase Price rebate, incl. VAT) rebate, incl. VAT) rebate, incl. VAT) rebate, inl. VAT) 1. Outright 1. Outright 2. Leasing 1. Outright 2. Leasing plan 1. Outright 2. Leasing Purchase Purchase Purchase available, PurchaseBasic Business £ 299 for four amount to be £ 319 month forPackages years and 36 months announced 40,000 miles £ 215 contract contract hire for 60 months 6 rentals payable in advance • Basic – 3 yrs/60,000 • Basic – 2 yrs dealers • Basic – Lifetime up to • Basic - 3 yrs unlimited miles and 6 yrs by 100,000 miles miles Warranty manufacturer • EV components – 5 • Battery/electric • EV components – 5 yrs Conditions yrs/60,000 miles • Drivetrain – 3 yrs propulsion – 8 dealers and 5 yrs by yrs/100,000 miles • Roadside assistance – 3 • Roadside assistance yrs manufacturer – 3 yrs • Anti-perforation • Full servicing and corrosion – 6 yrs • Anti – corrosion • Anti-corrosion – 12 perforation – 8 yrs maintenance for 4 yrs yrs • Vauxhall assistance – 1 yr • Paint – 3 yrs Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 9
  28. 28. Renault-Nissan likely to be the first OEM to sell a complete range ofelectric vehicles including light commercial electric vehiclesBusiness Model TWIZY Kangoo Z.E FLUENCE Z.E. Zoe Z.E.Outright Expected price - • £6,690 (inc. VAT) • £16,990 (exc. VAT) £17,850 (inc. VAT*)Purchase Price £14,000 (inc. VAT* after (after £5,000 incentive) incentives) 1. Outright 2. Leasing 1. Outright 2. Leasing 1. Outright 2. Leasing 1. Outright 2. Leasing Purchase Purchase Purchase Purchase (Expected) £40 for 36 £62 for 48 £69.60/monthBasic £65 for 48 months for months for for battery leaseBusiness inc. VAT* months for battery lease. battery lease.Packages battery lease.Warranty • Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited • Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited • Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited • Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited mileage mileage mileage mileageConditions • Electric motor – 3 years • Electric motor – 5 years • Electric motor – 5 years • Electric motor – 5 years /unlimited mileage /100,000 km /100,000 km /100,000 kmExpected March 2012 Launched - October 2011 Launched - November 2011 September 2011launch dateEst. annual sales 800-1,000 units (Europe) 1,000-1,200 units (Europe) 5,000-6,000 units (Europe) 1,000-1,200 units (Europe)(Europe)Launch Markets United Kingdom Europe Israel Europe Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 10
  29. 29. European Electric Vehicle Market – A and C segment vehicles estimated tocapture 35% and 40% of the total European car parc respectively for EV by 2018 Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Volumes by EV Segment (Europe), 2011 -2018 CAGR : 85% Strong competition expected from Mitsubishi iMEV, Toyota iQ, Peugoet iON, VW UP and Renault ZE 40% 35%Units (In 000’s) Van Derived EV’s interesting for business fleets catering to deliveries, utilities etc. Mass manufacturers like Nissan with their Leaf, Renault Fluence, Opel Ampere, Toyota Prius will cater to this segment 14% 6% 3% 1% Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 11
  30. 30. Mega Trends Influencing EV Market Development 12
  31. 31. Global Mega Trends Impacting Mobility in the Future Urbanization E-Mobility Mega and Smart Cities New Micro Mobility products Car Sharing/Car Sustainable Public Integrated Mobility New Business Models Pooling Transportation and Solutions (Value for Many) BRT Geo-Socialization Connected and High Speed Rail Gen Y And Social Media Wireless Planet Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 13
  32. 32. SMART Cities Globally : Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 and over 150Cities Globally to be Eco city/Sustainable cities by 2020, leading EV Implementation Amsterdam London Boulder Tianjin GIFT San Francisco Göteborg Stockholm Reykjavik Oslo Hammarby Sjöstad Songdo Montreal Clonburris Copenhagen Vancouver St Davids Seattle Toronto Freiburg Portland Paris Dongtan Treasure Island Barcelona Changsha Destiny Coyote Springs Meixi Lake Babcock Ranch Khajuraho Arcosanti Pune Singapore City Bogota Kochi Waitakere, N.Z. Masdar Curitiba Cape Town Moreland, Australia Legend Note: The images are used only for representation. Cities built from scratch Image Source: Google Images Existing eco cities Existing eco megacities Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 14
  33. 33. Future Innovation in Mobility – The electric powertrain willembrace all the new mobility solutions Wild Innovation Technology Innovation Unknown Mobility Integration Traffic Prediction system Solutions New Mobility Products Parking Search assistance Motorized Mover Cashless Payment Two seated Electric Car Improvement Application Innovation Micro cars Car Sharing Known Electric Cars Car Pooling Solutions Electric Bikes Bike Sharing Met needs Unmet needs Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 15
  34. 34. Opportunities in Car Sharing 2020: 20% of the vehicles in car sharing are expectedto be electric vehicles by 2016 and it is expected to emerge as additional businessopportunity for VMs Member Carsharing Vehicles & Members (World), 2010-2020 Carsharing subscriber base to be 14 Million in EU by 2020 Worldwide 32 Million Vehicle subscriptions 200,000 shared expected by 2020 vehicles expected in Europe by 2020 Potential Market France, United Kingdom, Germany and Switzerland to hold around 75 per cent of Revenue Share in 2016. Members (in Million ) Vehicles (Thousands) Usage of Electric Vehicle By 2016, 1 in 5 vehicles of the carsharing vehicle fleet is expected to be a battery powered EV. Revenue Generation The revenue potential of carsharing market is expected to be € 7 billion by 2020 in Europe. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 16
  35. 35. The Future Is Multi-Modal Commuting, Combining Door to DoorSolutions Using Dedicated Mobility Platforms Intercity Intercity 2020 Train SuburbsTRAVEL DISTANCE Intercity Bus Private Cars Shared Mobility City Shared Mobility CAR OWNERSHIP Public Transportation Micro-mobility Personal Rapid Transit Destination TRAVEL DISTANCE Door to door integrated, multimobility a reality in future Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first and last mile connectivity. Government to club public transport with bike / two wheeler/car rental schemes Market will see new players in market termed as “Mobility Integrators” Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 17
  36. 36. Mobility Integrators (MI) – New Players Entering the MarketMIs to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter-modality and multi-modality travelsplit Telecom Operators Transport The Concept of a Dynamic Operators Transport Solution Integrating Rail Bus Different Modes Under a Single Entity to make Personal Transportation Easy and Simple Online Mobility Carsharing Booking Agencies: Long Distance Mobility Mobility Bikes Integrator Short Distance Urban Mobility Technology Solutions MIs will start exploiting the Web Provider 2.0 and Mobile 2.0 Internet Payment Engine service to offer mobility-based Technology Evolution applications (apps) on smart phones. MOBILE 2.0 WEB 2.0 *The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 18
  37. 37. CAR SHARING CASE STUDY: Autolib (Paris) to have 100% Evs andare excepted to invest in over 5,000 cars in the coming two years Current Situation Forthcoming plans • Cooperative initiative from the City of Paris • 3,000 cars by end of 2012 • 250 Million Euro investment project, grant of • 3,500 charging stations by 2012 about 50,000 Euros allocated for each station • 80,000 subscribers required to break even as one time implementation stage • Type 3 charging station to be installed • 66 cars running on road, 6,000 subscribers allowing up to two refills per day per to date. subscriber. Can also be used to charge • 00% Electric vehicles - Bluecar from Bollore private vehicles and bikes • From June 1st 2012, we can expect about 1,100 stations and spaces for about 1440 Bluecars. Car sharing finding options Access Via RFID I Phone Apps Normal phone Public Autolib •Chip on Driving •Touch screen information stations license display centre (manned) •Chip reader • Key – Card reader Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 19
  38. 38. CASE STUDY: Daimler’s car2go car sharing expected to expand from 8cities to around 40 in mid term. Currently 3 cities are 100% EVs Two EV Projects •Currently 12 Car2go Vehicles •Use of foldable bikes by on-field Amsterdam and San Diego service to take the car for •Fleet of 300 to be implemented charging. •300 EVs in each city by end of 2012 •Charges the car each night or •100% Electric Smart •Currently 250 charging once in two nights based on the Stations and is expected to charge available Fortwo ED (Electric Drive) increase to 1,000 by 2012 EV Car sharing Amsterdam Micro-Mobility Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 20
  39. 39. Electric Vehicle Charging Station Infrastructure Forecast and Trends 21
  40. 40. Global EV public Charging Station Facts- Currently, the charging infrastructure market is highly concentrated in Europe and the United States - 2011 United States Germany France The United Spain Kingdom No. of charging stations – No. of charging stations – No. of charging stations – No. of charging stations – No. of charging stations – 7,500 960 1,270 1,600 880 Key participants -Coulomb, Key participants Siemens, Key participants –EDF, Park Key participants – Podpoint, Key participants –KEBA AG, Ecotality, Aerovironment Park & Charge, Rittal & charge, Vinci Autoroutes Elektromotive, Chargemaster Iberdrola, Gamesa Australia ItalyNo. of charging stations – No. of charging stations –400 560Key participants – Key participants –ENEL, ParkChargepoint, Betterplace & Charge Netherlands JapanNo. of charging stations – No. of charging stations –160 1,100Key participants - Epyon, Key participants –Chademo,Alfen, ABB etc Norway Portugal Demark Sweden ChinaNo. of charging stations – No. of charging stations – No. of charging stations – No. of charging stations – No. of charging stations –720 340 320 240 1500Key participants Lyse,Ensto, Key participants –MOBI.E Key participants –Elektromotive, Key participants –Park & Key participants SGCC, CSG,ABB Betterplace Charge, DBT CNOOC 22
  41. 41. EV Infrastructure Charging Standards Overview - Europe Slow Charging (up to 7 kW) / Semi-fast charging (7-10/20 kW) Fast Charging Slow charging Standard / Mode 1 Mode 2 Mode 3 Mode 4 Inductive charging Specifications „Overnight charging” „Overnight charging” Dedicated EV charging Dedicated EV charging Dedicated EV charging Description On-board charger On-board charger On-board charger Off-board charger Converts AC mains power Converts AC mains power Converts AC mains power High-voltage, high-current Wireless charging using to DC high voltage to to DC high voltage to to DC high voltage to delivered to the vehicle. alternating electromagnetic charge PEV battery. charge PEV battery. charge PEV battery. field. Specifications •Max 16 A •Max 32 A •Max 32 A / 250 A •200-600V (DC) •3.3 kW** •Max 250 V (single-phase) •Max 250 V (single-phase) •Dedicated EVSE •120-400A •Max 480 V (three-phase) •Max 480 V (three-phase) •In-cable or in-plug control •>100kW (currently •Standard socket •Standard socket pilot cable ~50kW*) •3.7-11 kW •In-cable or in-plug control •14.5-43.5 kW pilot cable •7.4-22 kW Ability to integrate •No •No •Yes •Yes •Yes into smart grid ACEA •Not developed •Home charging •Public charging •Not developed •Not developed •Home charging recommendation •Mode 3 as a uniform solution for EU public charging (planned after 2017) Location •Home •Home (safer version of •Public charging •Emergency public •Public charging •Fleets Mode 1) •Home charging Time to recharge ~4.5 hours ~2.2 hours ~1.1 hours ~20 minutes ~4.8 hours (CEV with 16 kW battery) (at 3.7 kW) (at 7.4 kW) (at 14.5 kW) (at 50 kW) (at 3.7 kW) Source: Frost & Sullivan analysisBased on IEC 62196 standard and European Commitee for Standarisation, as of June 2011 23
  42. 42. AC charging connector Standard recommendations - Europe Europe IEC 62196 - 2 European AC charging connector options Type 1 • IEC 62196 – 1 and IEC 62196 – 2 are the two final draft standards by the •Five pin contact IEC international standard for electric vehicles, which are nearing •Single phase AC completion. •250 V •32A • IEC 62196 – 1 contains the general requirements and IEC 62196 – 2 standardizes type 1, 2 and 3. • The main supplier for type 2 connector is Mennekes Type 2 - German •Seven pin contact •Single phase AC The main challenge for the type 2 connector is that it lacks the shutter •250 V •20A/32A/63A/70A option and in some European countries, according to the National electric •Three phase AC codes, electrical installations with electrical contacts need to be shuttered. •380V-480V •20A/32A/63A IEC 62196 – 2 – type 3 is fully compatible with the national codes in all the European countries for the use on buildings and communication between Type 3 - French vehicle to grid. This type is being promoted by “EV Plug Alliance” which •Four, five or seven pin was formed between Schneider electric, Legrand, SCAME. Gewiss, contact Marechal Electric, Radiall, Vimar, Weidmuller France and Yazaki Europe •Single phase AC •250 V have also joined the EV Plug Alliance. •16A/32A •Three phase SCAME is the few of the suppliers who is working on type 3 connectors. •380V-480V •32A Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 24
  43. 43. Proposed DC charging connector standards Europe North America China IEC 62196 - 3 SAE J1772 Working on harmonizing the combo connectors as the DC contact location and the control signals are common •Nine pin contact •Nine pin contact •Seven pin contact •750V/250A •850V •600 V •The standard is yet •200A •200A awaiting approval CHAdeMO- Japan IEC 62196 – 3 is being CHAdeMO is a charger interface standard that was developed in Japan. developed to standardize DC charging as all the Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi Motors, Fuji Heavy Industries and the Tokyo vehicles do not comply with Electric Power Company (TEPCO) are the member of the CHAdeMO the CHAdeMO standard. association. It is likely to become a The electrical ratings are as follows : standard in future. •400VDC/120A •The standard is not approved in North America and Europe Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 25
  44. 44. The cost of different levels of charging stations excluding governmentincentives Cost incurred in buying and installing the different types of charging stations (North America) Material costs Labor costs Other costs Total costs Level 2 (residential) $1,100-$1,200 $1,000-$1,100 $100 $2,200-$2,400 Level 2 (Commercial fleet )- 5 stations $15,000-$16,000 $2,100-$2,200 $4,000-$4,500 $21,100-$22,700 Level 2 (Public charging station) – 2 $6,500-$7,000 $4,500-$5,000 $4,000-$4,500 $15,000-$16,500 DC charging (Public charging station) – 2 $55,000-$60,000 $7,000-$8,000 $3,000-$3,500 $65,000-$71,500 Inductive Charging $2,000-$4,000 $2,000-$3,000 - $4,000-$7,000 Solar powered charging station (2.5kW-hr) $10,000-$15,000 - - $10,000-$15,000 26
  46. 46. North East of England Electromobility Trials:Switch EVMyriam NeaimehTransport Operations Research GroupNewcastle University, UKBrussels, February 2012
  47. 47. Involvement in several electro-mobility projects• Centre of excellence for low carbon and fuel cell technologies (CENEX)Smart Move Electric Vehicle TrialAim: investigated the movements and behaviour of electric vehicles (EVs) incorporated into fleets of local businesses• EU projectSmartCEM: Smart Connected Electro Mobility4 cities/regions (Barcelona, Gipuzkoa-San Sebastian, Newcastle and Turin)Newcastle coordinating the operation of the project.Aim: To demonstrate the role of the Information and Communication technologies (ICT) solutions for cities and citizens in addressing shortcomings of electro mobility.SWITCH EV
  48. 48. Switch EV Trial• Real-world trial of 44 electric vehicles.• 1 of 8 projects of the Ultra-Low Carbon Vehicle Demonstrator programme launched by the Technology Strategy Board.
  49. 49. Switch EV consortium
  50. 50. Charging Infrastructure: Plugged in Places • National programme funded by the Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV) • NE PiP: 1300 charging points by March 2013 • Public chargers (Streets,Parkings,commercial places), Workplace, Domestic and quick charging points
  51. 51. Charging Infrastructure: Plugged in Places Already installed: 276 points installed 8 Fast chargers (provide 50 kW of power)
  52. 52. Charging Infrastructure:EV User membership “Charge Your Car” • Scheme is a semi- commercial venture • 100£ annual fee: free electricity +free Parking until March 2013 • Leaflets
  53. 53. Charging Infrastructure:How suited is the North-East for Electric Vehicles? • What this graph shows is that for over 90% of the time driving in the North East, the EV is within 5km of a charging point. • The EV is within 15km of a charge point for more than 99% of the time spent driving
  54. 54. Events statistics Average journey length: 10 km Longest journey: 107 km Average journey duration: 15 min Total journey distance: 129,497 km (Newcastle-Brussels= 610 km:106 return journeys) Total number of journeys: 12,786 Total number of charges: 3520 Total energy transferred: 25 MWhData from Dec 2010 to Dec 2011
  55. 55. How do we collect and analyse data? Monitor all aspects of vehicle usage. Sec/sec data •Vehicle data (ignition signal, heater, gear position,etc…) •battery management data (State of Charge,Energy Transfered) •GPS and time stamp (Position, time => Distance, Duration)
  56. 56. Location, consumption and regeneration 1
  57. 57. Location, consumption and regeneration 2 Consumption and regeneration depend not only on the speed and traffic patterns within the journey . . . . . . but also on the topography of the journey.
  58. 58. Location, consumption and regeneration 3 Different drivers making the same journey Identical spatial journeys can reveal more about the specifics of driving electric cars and by analysing the data we can start to think about other conclusions
  59. 59. Switch EV Participants and soft data collection• 44 cars lent out in 4 separate periods > 145 organisations and families for at least 6 month at a time.• 2 periods so far; >100 individuals driving the cars• Before, during and after surveys and focus groups of drivers
  60. 60. What do consumers want?
  61. 61. Limited Driving Range and ITSTheoretical perceived range Role of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) in overcoming the limited range barrier: Intelligent in-vehicle technology (Information and Communication technologies)gives the drivers more information which would expand their perceived range.
  62. 62. Incorporating traffic and topography information to the EV journey Time: 09:57:00 Distance: 61.0m Av Speed: 22km/h Av Discharge: 0.32 kwh/km Traffic: Busy Total Distance: 61.0m Topography information(elevation…) Time: 09:59:00 Distance: 52.77m Av Speed: 32.2km/h Av Discharge: 0.29kwh/km Traffic: Busy-Smooth Total Distance: 162..89m Topography information
  63. 63. Perceived range depends on informationPerceived range isaltered bytopography andtraffic . . .
  64. 64. Perceived range depends on informationNow add driverreaction to feedbackof information oncharging stations
  65. 65. Perceived range depends on information
  66. 66. Users over-estimate their driving rangeOn average, how many miles did you complete per trip?
  67. 67. 95% of journeys are well within the Battery range
  68. 68. 93% of Trips in GB are well within the Battery rangeCumulative trips, passenger distance and CO2 emissions from household car journeysby trip length, GB, 2002/2006 average (Source DfT analysis) New flexible ownership models
  69. 69. Life Cycle cost of EV vs ICE
  70. 70. Would you consider buying an EV? Post trial Only 13% of AA members said that they “I would seriously consider buying an electric car within the next two years”
  71. 71. Perceptions of EVsPre trial Get people to try an EV! Post trial
  72. 72. Tracking user recharging behaviourThe Switch EV trials monitor driver rechargingbehaviour Recharging location (home, work, other) Time of day of recharging events Energy transferred during recharge
  73. 73. Where are people recharging?
  74. 74. % Energy transferred by location over 24 hour period
  75. 75. Why is recharging time important? ‘On-peak’ recharging between 08:00am and 18:00pm, with an average carbon content of 465gCO2/kWh ‘Off-peak’ recharging between 00:00am and 06:00am, with an average carbon content of 364gCO2/kWh
  76. 76. When the vehicles are recharging?Peak recharging: 80gCO2/Km (6km/kWh)Off-Peak recharging: 60 gCO2/Km Business models to encourage people to charge at night
  77. 77. What will happen when there are a lot of EV’s and charging at peak time? Smarter grids and individual household smart Data: metering is crucial Newcastle University National Grid Office for National Statistics ENTSO-E
  78. 78. SummaryTrials are beginning to test and understand consumer charging patterns and behaviour – there will be a need to ‘influence’ this behaviour to manage demand and carbon contentIntelligent Transport Systems aims at informing the driver and at helping to overcome barriers to the EV uptake.If You want consumers to have a positive perception of EV’s: get them to try one!
  79. 79. Pay as you go…EV’s pay no road tax, no congestion charge and do not pay fuel duty.Government will need to re-think how it raises tax from the road transport sector in the future if EV ownership becomes widespread.
  80. 80. Contact / Further InformationMyriam EV Web: Web:
  81. 81. CONNECTING EUROPE: TEN-T & CEF *Assuring transport forEuropes citizens & goods- with a special chapter on innovation & new technologiesRecharging the European Electric Vehicle Market22 February 2012The Silken Berlaymont Hotel, Brussels Presentation by Helmut Morsi, European Commission Deputy Head of Unit: DG MOVE B1, TEN & Head of Sector: TENtec & Innovation *CEF = Connecting Europe Facility
  82. 82. Transport – lifeblood of the economy• Transport is fundamental to a strong economy• Freight transport in Europe is expected to grow by 80% by 2050• Passenger transport to grow by more than 50%• CO2 emissions endeavored to fall by 60 %• Key: A vitally new infrastructure policy
  84. 84. TODAY......• Lacking connections between Member States• Remaining technical barriers (railway gauge, electrification, control and command systems, traffic management)• Too many gaps between transport modes (e.g.: only 20 major airports directly connected to the rail network and only 35 major ports well connected to land network)• Almost ignored intelligent transport solutions across modes
  85. 85. TODAY......• Bottlenecks, missing links and inefficient capacity management as an obstacle to smooth traffic flows• Remaining imbalances in infrastructure endowment and, consequently, in access to markets and prosperity• Inadequate infrastructure connections with neighbouring and other third countries• Lack of innovation, especially with a view to low carbon technologies
  86. 86. The patchwork today Priority projectsections (passenger rail) completed by 2010
  87. 87. We need to do better• The existing patchwork of priority projects will be replaced by a single European core network• Core network corridors will effectively boost core network implementation• The comprehensive network as “ground layer” to ensure accessibility and common standards in all regions• “core” is just a special label of a comprehensive network section, which emphasises the elevated importance of a section for trans-European traffic flows (-> methodology).
  88. 88. 2030A European core network (rail)
  89. 89. Boosting investment with the CEF • 31.7 billion, out of which 10 billion specifically for cohesion countries • 80 – 85 % for core network corridors, 3 horizontal priorities and other important cross-border sections • 15 – 20 % for other projects of the core and comprehensive networks • Innovative financial instruments • Further 24 billion Euros under the Cohesion Fund
  90. 90. Innovation & new technologies (a) - TEN-T Guidelines (Proposal) -• TEN-T Section 7 - Common Provisions• Art. 39 New technologies and innovation The comprehensive network shall keep up with state-of-the-art technological developments and deployments. They shall in particular aim to: a) enable the decarbonisation of transport through transition to innovative transport technologies; b) enable the decarbonisation of all transport modes by stimulating energy efficiency as well as the introduction of alternative propulsion systems and the provision of corresponding infrastructure. Such infrastructure may include grids and other facilities necessary for the energy supply, take account of the infrastructure – vehicle interface and encompass intelligent transport systems; c) …. & d) ….
  91. 91. Innovation & new technologies (b) - TEN-T Guidelines (Proposal) -• TEN-T Section 7 - Common Provisions• Art. 39 New technologies and innovation (continued) e) promote measures to reduce external costs, such as pollution of any kind, including noise, congestion and health damage; f) … g) improve resilience to climate change; h) further advance the development and deployment of intelligent transport systems within and between modes of transport.
  92. 92. Innovation & new technologies (c) - Connecting Europe Facility (transport) -• CEF Art 10 – Funding Rates (Grants) – Studies for all modes : up to 50% – Works for rail & IWW : up to 20 to 40% – Inland transport connections to ports & airports and devel. of ports & MMPs : up to 20% – Traffic management systems & services • Rail - ERTMS : up to 50% • Road Core Network – traffic manag. sys., freight serv. & secure parkings : up to 20% • Motorways of the Seas – development : up to 20%
  93. 93. EU 27 Member statesRoads, ports, rail-roadterminals and airports
  94. 94. TEN-T Annual Call 2012 Priority 2a: Studies and preparation of deployment projects contributing to mitigation and adaptation to climate change (GHG emissions).• Scope and objective: support sustainable passenger and freight transport in the EU – Studies with integrated pilot deployment – Transport infrastructure and facilities – On TEN-T network – Introduction and use of new technologies, in particular using alternative fuels – Market-sided innovation – All modes of transport• Focus: Only new technologies ready for deployment, with initial results by the end of 2013. - no research!
  95. 95. TEN-T Annual Call 2012 Political Objective taken from Workprogramme (legal base for call)• Only proven new technologies will be considered under this priority, with the objective of testing them and providing initial results by the end of 2013.• The final objective is to enable policy-makers, EU citizens and industry to understand and decide which technologies have the highest potential for rapid deployment across the EU.• Since such deployment would happen at EU level, particular attention will be given to the European added value, such as the swift harmonisation of (minimum) standards and the swift creation of critical mass in the EU.
  96. 96. TEN-T Annual Call 2012 Financial Support of EU• EU contribution 1 to 5 million €, except in duly justified cases• Up to 50% of eligible costs.• Legal persons of private or public law inside EU27• Call Deadline: 13 April 2012 _the_funding_process/annual_call_2011.htm
  97. 97. TEN-T Annual Call 2012 Lessons Learnt from last call• Annual TEN-T call in 2010• 6 innovation projects received, only 1 selected• Main reason for rejection: – Lack of maturity – Research (ineligible !) – Not focussed on transport (relevance)
  98. 98. Thank you for your attention.