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New Mega TrendsImplications to Future of Mobility            Sarwant Singh      Partner and Practice Director      Automot...
Presentation AgendaMega Trends Impacting MobilityMicro Mobility Market OverviewTraditional Car Sharing in Europe (G3) – An...
Mega Trends Impacting MobilityUrbanization            E-Mobility          Smart and Sustainable    New Micro Mobility     ...
MegaMega Cities      Regions     Mega  Corridor    Mega Slums                       4
There Will be 34 Mega Cities Globally By 2025 - 76% of Mega Cities to                    be From Developing World         ...
Over 26 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2025 - More than 50% of   Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North A...
Cities, and Not Countries, Will DriveWealth Creation In the FutureCities like Seoul account for 50% of thecountry’s GDP; B...
Future Innovation in Mobility to Focus on The “Wild” Side             Technology Innovation         Wild Innovation       ...
Micro Mobility Solutions Market To Explode in FutureOpen-top models are largely there to target conventional bicycle, engi...
Overview of Micro Mobility Models by Key Global Mainstream OEMs        About 125 micro mobility models announced by variou...
New Sub A Vehicle Segment                         16 Quadricycles in the EU Market Today and Expected to be Over 32 Models...
Market for Carsharing Services in Europe   Traditional carsharing in Europe expected to reach nearly 15 million members by...
Traditional Carsharing in Europe – A Snapshot      Germany, UK and Switzerland alone had nearly 77 percent of the Traditio...
P2P Carsharing in Europe – A SnapshotFrance, UK and Germany alone had nearly 87 percent of the P2P Carsharing             ...
Case Study : BMW Fleet Strategy for Car Sharing            Excellent Example of an OEM led Car Sharing Based Mobility Mode...
The Future of Mobility is for ‘Green’, ‘Integrated’ and             ‘Interoperable’ Transport Infrastructure - SMART      ...
The Future of Mobility Is Multi-Modal Commuting, Combining                   Door to Door Solutions Using Dedicated Mobili...
Convergence in Mobility - Example of CarsharingIn addition to dedicated CSOs and OEMs, leasing companies as well as transp...
Case Study of Mobility Integration by NS Business                                                                         ...
Case Study of NS Business Card — Mobility Solution  Only existing complete MI with 170,000 members and 1200 companies enro...
Case Study on Multimodal Transportation, ALD Automotive                                 ALD Sharing                       ...
Conclusion : Future is James Bond.................                                                     23
Conclusion : Future is James Bond or Jason Bourne!                                                     24
Learn More About “New Mega Trends”       Upcoming Book:       New Mega Trends       Implications for our Future Lives     ...
Contact UsSarwant SinghPartner & Practice Director, Visionary InnovationResearch Group and Automotive & Transportation    ...
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  • Slide notes:We have listed for convenience a variety of models that could be classified based on a number of parameters.But what is this micro mobility solution; they can be classified broadly as identified by Frost & Sullivan as “EPCOT”.Based on Vehicle Power Source (Energy - E)Atleast10 out of the 15 models to be electric.Rest of them are either human hybrids, ICE driven vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles.Based on Number of Wheels (Product - P)The complete range of one- to four-wheeled models classified and shown clearly3. Based on Targeted Commuting Distance (Commute - C)Three-wheeled models expected to target city driving and two- and four-wheeled micro-mobility models to target primarily short-distance travels as well as city-driving.4.Based on Business Models (Operation - O)Model like Two-wheeled,One-seating, Bike-type (VW Bik.e) are expected to be sold with every new car VW plans to sell by 2018.Model like the Four-wheeled, Tandem Two-seating, Car-type (Opel Rake) could be GM’s entry level car for a global audience.5. Based on Vehicle Construction (Technology - T)As open and closed top vehicles, shown clearly.Nealry 55 percent models (by volume) and from global mainstream OEMs are expected to be open-top models, with European OEMs alone expected to account for nearly 70 of these open-top models.As a combination:What is interesting to note here is that electric, closed-top four wheeled models are expected to become more popular among end-users and targeted at private ownership for city-driving over last-mile connectivity.
  • Slide notes:More than 154 models identified which includes vehicles from key global participants and others by 2020.More than 125 models from key global automotive participants expected to flood global market by 2020.Among key global participants, more than 111 of the 125 from 16 global passenger car OEMs including North American OEMs like Ford, GM and ChrylserEuropean OEMs – VW, Audi, BMW, Daimler, Fiat, PSAAsian OEMs – Hyundai, Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Suzuki and GeelyAlthough European OEMs have the most number of models followed by Asians, the focus is on Asia market followed by European market.While shutter-bugs have captured plenty of these models even in recently concluded auto shows globally, we at Frost & Sullivan understand that more than 50 percent of these are already production ready/friendly.70-80 percent of the models are expected to come in electric variants.Three-wheel models are plenty as they could come in higher driving range and best suited for city-driving.Two-wheeled models are also plenty as they target both short distance primarily and a bit of city driving.ASEAN and India market are also expected to be strong adopters of micro-mobility models owing to a strong presence of two-wheeler users (similar to China)
  • Slide notes:About 16 key quadricycles compete for space in the European microcars market in end 2010. For instance, models like AixamMicrocar, LigierXtoo, Chatenet CH26.This figure of 16 is expected to more than double in terms of base models within the quadricycles category by 2013.For instance models like MicrocarZenn, Piaggio NT3, Little Electric 2-seater. In addition to the quadricycles there is an emerging sub-A vehicles in the entire microcars segment that would add another 19 more key vehicle models by 2014 to take the total count of microcars to over 50 key models (a growth of 300% in the microcar segment in terms of total number of base models contending for market share)For instance models like Gordon Murray T25, PSA BB1, Reva NXR, Tata Nano Europe/Pixel/MegaPixel, Honda EV-N.Models like Renault Twizy are expected to come in both quadricycle and sub-A offerings.The key electric models announced are highlighted by dotted red lines. Some of the important models on display at the 2010Paris Motor Show 2010 highlighted by dotted blue lines.Microcars in North America are expected to include A-segment vehicles also They could share body styles of these A-segment vehicles to even launch sub-A models in Europe with characteristics of interior, exterior, performance and powertrain.
  • Slide notes:Traditional carsharing is already in a strong growth phase and expected to clock around 15 million by 2020 interms of members.Growth in corporatecarsharing and one-way carsharing members expected to be important drivers for growth of traditional carsharing from 0.7 million members in 2011 to nearly 15 million by 2020.UK is expected to increase its share of carsharing members owing to parking subsidies available for carclubs, integration of carsharing with public transport as a sustainable solution. Personal vehicle restriction policies like congestion charging and tolls expected to increase cost of car ownership and impact household car ownership.France is also expected to grow in marketshare due to projects like autolibparis with strong support of Government promoting carsharing. Tax exemptions for EV purchase also a big driver for boosting EVs in carsharing. Entry of OEMs in carsharing in UK and growth of OEMs in carsharing in Germany, France also expected to boost one-way carsharing (both station based and flexible/floating)A lot of companies are signing up employees for mobility allowances over private/company car allowance as a boost to vehicle utilization rate and lowering vehicle ownership cost. Such measures are expected to bring steady revenues to the carsharing operators in addition to increase in number of rentals per day.
  • Slide notes:This slide presents the snapshot of different traditional carsharing operators in Europe.Germany is the biggest with about 130 operators. About 80 of them are nearly small operators. The key among these CSOs would be DB Flinkster, Cambio, DriveNow, Stadtmobil.In UK carsharing is referred as carclub and about 30 carclubs are present. Nearly 80-85 percent of them in and around city of London. Zipcar acquired Streetcar among the biggest followed by citycarclub.In France transport operators like Veolia, caisse commune, mobilib have a strong understand about the market. Currently a flurry of EV operators like autobleue, autolibparis target big potential via innovative business and EV operational models.While companies like Zipcar investing in Avancar in Spain for expansion in Europe, Mobility supporting Denzel drive in Austria with its technology platform the entire market is dynamic in Europe growing healthy in countries in Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland among others. 
  • Slide notesFrance is the P2P carsharing capital of Europe with 8 participants. Voiturelib among the biggest in France followed by Zilok a multi-brand/product online rental company including cars. The recently started Buzzcar would come a close third along with Cityzencarinterms of car owners.UK the biggest by far among all countries in terms of car owners with nearly 18000 already onboard. Another P2P CSO easycar has announced to start operations by 2012 to end the two year monopoly of Whipcar in this UK market.Similar to UK P2P CSO Whipcar certain German P2P CSOs like Tamyca have created interests among investors and seen funding to help with their growth currently in Germany.But something which is common among all is that each of the P2P carsharing operator is rearing to grow outside their home country and in foreign land, not necessarily bordering countries.While we understood from our research that even Tamyca and Whipcar could be seen in end-up in some collaborative effort in the P2P carsharing space.Countries like Belgium operate even P2P carsharing not for profit but are planning to become for-profit by moving into a mass-scale venture with low-cost technology licensed from a traditional carsharing operator.
  • Slide notes• The average M:V ratio is best captured in P2P carsharing market in this slide. • It is around 8-10 members per vehicle on an average.• 6 out of the 8 countries studied have M:V ratio lower than the average. • Netherlands and Belgium strongly influenced by their traditional carsharing market and hence a high number on the M:V ratio.• For UK although it looks around 2, the number could be high as Whipcar does not reveal exact driver data information about their network.
  • Slide notesBMW has separate brands for offering corporate and personal carsharingBMW explores both one-way and round-trip/two-way carsharing via specific brands covering the spectrum, reading the pulse of the market before expansion of either or both.As current range of fleet is only restricted to mini and a few BMW entry level models (in Alphacity and DriveNow), in the future BMW could offer luxury carsharing sharing similar to its BMW on demand service.
  • This slide is a snapshot of the future of Mobility where Green, Integrated and Interoperable transport infrastructure is in place to give consumers instant access to necessary real-time information, flexible and customer controlled travel, safety and payment methods amongst others. Real-time information availability for customer, information transfer and sharing between different related businesses to offer consumers up to date information for better travel and planning.Smart ticketing and payment modes which reduce the need for carrying multiple cards and paper tickets. The focus will be on consumer “Pay as you go” and e-ticketing using mobile phone and smart application to transfer/Check booking data. Smart Mobility business models that offer a variety of travel options to get from Point A to Point B in least time, affordable cost and customer’s expectation of comfort.
  • This slide depicts the connectivity that is evolving between different modes of transport in view of offering customer integrated door-to-door travel solutions. In fact through this convergence we believe in the development of a “Mobility Integrator”, one that will provide a door-to-door, end-to-end mobility solution to customers combining modes, communication, payment, etc. Definition of a Mobility Integrator“As a futuristically driven market player, a Mobility Integrator is defined as an entity in the value chain which assists in providing or provides the right combination of various modes of transport available to get a person from Point A to Point B in the most cost-effective and time-saving manner in-line with the customer expectations and willingness by leveraging technological expertise, operational excellence and innovative business propositions.”The 4 key elements which encourage the emergence of a mobility integrator are:Time and Cost Savings: Consumers are always looking at the best fares to travel to their destination in the least possible time and increased comfort.Multiple modes of transport offered: With a number of travel options available (including innovative new business models like car sharing, bike sharing), the dilemma of consumers to be confined to a single mode is reduced and the flexibility to choose the best combination to reach their destination is a upon the consumers needs. Single ticket travel: While booking, planning and handling tickets of different modes of transport can be cumbersome, MIs offer a One Stop Shop Solution.Technology Integration: Advances in technology have made it possible for consumer to travel without pre defined travel plans and also to terminate a travel at their destination of choice. Who will be the “mobility integrator” of the future? Various players are already and can expect to move in this direction : Transport operator (DB), IT Giants (Google or Amazon), Travel Operator (Expedia) and Vehicles ManufacturersEg : BMW through its fund is investing into this ecosystem and strategically position itself across the new mobility ecosystem being developed (not necessary) and you have players like PSAOther Notes To date the mobility ecosystem has developed in silos based on the various modes of transport available, with little to no integration Congestion, technology availability and need to optimise existing infrastructure is driving that integration to take place between modes, but also all activities surrounding mobility from parking to hospitality and infotainment on the go.
  • Traditionally dedicated carsharing operators targeted the growing carsharing businessEx.Mobility, Greenwheels, Stadtmobil, Zipcar, Avancar, Now there are atleast three more different class of participants competing for space and market share.They are vehicle OEMs, leasing companies and transport operators.OEMs like Daimler Car2Go, VW Quicar, BMW DriveNow target entry in markets like UK and expansion in markets like GermanyOEMs like Renault, Citroen have also partnered with companies like Carbox to offer corporate carsharing services.Leasing companies like ALD, Leaseplan are entering this space aggressively.A lot of effort is being undertaken by city transport operators to integrate carsharing an sustainable transport solution complementing public transport like rail, bus, metro, tram, and an alternative to private cars/company cars travel.Additional Notes:This Slide shows the convergence of different mobility business models that it evident in modern times by diversifying towards providing new mobility solutions and hence constantly offering newer products and services to customers. The evolution of new business models are in view of providing different customers (general public, B2B, Cities) more flexibility, ease and comfort in travelling while keeping a control over their mobility budgets. This slide specifically focusses on the convergence of different business towards providing Carsharing. While ALD, LeasePlan and Alphabet’s core business is leasing and fleet management, they are foraying into providing carsharing as a way of adding to the CSR of a company and boosting the morale of employees. For example AlphaCity by Alphabet which is a corporate car sharing model and ALD corporate car sharing. Similarly there are also a number of dedicated Car Sharing operators like Greenwheels, ZipCar and Autolib who offer car sharing options to retail customers. Likewise a number of OEMs like BMW and Daimler which offer Leasing as an alternative financial service are also venturing into car sharing as an alternative means of revenue and also marketing their cars. BMW’s DriveNow program and Daimler’s Car2Go are examples of the same. These are also very much in line with the increasing cost of vehicle ownership due to congestion charging, parking, taxes, fuel prices and servicing alike. National Railway operators in the Netherlands, NS using the OV-Chip Card technology can be used with Greenwheels car sharing. This convergence of different business operators are opening up avenues for new business models thus expanding core competencies.
  • Transport Operators: NS Business Card is an exquisite example of a true mobility integrator as it provides corporates with the access to a wide range of transport options using just one card. Car CompaniesPeugeot Mu is primarilya B2C mobility solution that offers cars, light CV, bikes and scooter to takle challenegs of increasing cost of outright car ownerhip. It is also currently being extended to a B2B model. Citreon MultiCity is a multi-modal intinerary search engine for planning door-to-door travel. Leasing CompaniesA number of leasing companies like Alphabet concentrate primarily on car sharing and leasing for corporates as a mobility solution. In addition to this in the Netherlands, companies are tying up with the NS Business card to enhance value for customers by providing more travel options in addition to their core offering. LeasePlan in Netherlands is the only leasing and fleet management company to venture into providing Public Transport connectivity by itself without teaming up with other MI Programs like the NS Business card. LeasePlan provides the Mobility Mixx Mobility Card
  • Transit payment system that NSemploys on a country level is focused on flexible customer controlled door-to-door travel for customers and clientsBusiness MarketThe NS Business Card offers flexible door-to-door travel connectivity to corporate employees. It is a post-paid system which uses the technology of the OV-Chip Card to collect information on ‘check in and out’ at public transit stations and all other modes of public transport. This Slide primarly shows the wide range of options that the card allows a corporate employee to travel on with the flexiblity of terminating his journey at a point he wishes to. An employee does not have to worry about immediate payments and can choose a mode of transport that he is comfortable with. It concentrates on first and last - mile connectivity. OV-Chipkartisbase level building block as it already integrates existing public transport modes.OV-fiets: Flexible hire two-wheel micro-mobility solutions at 230 locations integrated - Bicycles, electric bikes and cycles.Partnership with Q-Park to offer car parks and garages near stations at a discounted ratesPartnership for Bike parking facilities in key cities with options for battery charging points for electric bikesNS Zonetaxiconcept through partnership with key taxi companies such as Regiotaxi and TreintaxiPartnership with Greenwheelsfor providing carsharing services Consumer MarketThe Pre-paid system focused the consumers (general public) was based on a ‘closed loop’ architecture with fare calculations and discounts to be processed in 200milliseconds. Trip Planner, Taxi, Greenwheels Car Rental, Public Transport, Car Parking, OV-Fiets (Bikes Sharing and Scooters), Bike Sheds and Service at Stations are all offered.GeneralThe primary difference between the consumer and business market is that the consumer market follows a pre-paid payment system, while the business market follows a post-paid payment system.Currently about 5% of business travelers use the train while 95% use other modes, primarily cars, therefore opening up a number of avenues for NS to innovate.
  • This slide shows the different solutions that ALD is offering in its quest to move from a leasing operator to a mobility provider.ALD offers ALD Sharing which is enables clients to have at their disposal, cars to be used by a number of employees, and at a lower cost than short term renting or the use of taxis in cities (Corporate Carsharing). Booking a car for professional or personal use is possible through an internet platform. It is easy to use, flexible, cost efficient and ecological as one car is shared between several drivers.It is operational in France and is currently being deployed in other European countries.ALD in Netherlands has tied up with the NS Business Card to offer corporate clients a wide range of Public Transport Options apart from just Car Leasing. ALD Railease combines the use of a rail pass with long-term vehicle leasing. Company employees can take full advantage of public transportation while having the flexibility of a personal vehicle when needed. Not only does the reduction in vehicle mileage contribute to lowering total costs and CO2 emissions, it also provides potential tax benefits.ALD Railease is already available in Belgium and The Netherlands7 Wheel Lease is an offer that combines rental of a 3-wheel scooter with a conventional vehicle, allowing corporate mobile resources to choose the best tool for transport: a scooter in certain, particularly dense, urban centers or a car for intercity travel or during bad weather. This mobility solution helps reduce a company's carbon footprint. This is available in Belgium and Netherlands. ALD also offers an e-scooter therefore also providing a 6-Wheel Lease.
  • Transcript of "Newmegatrends implicationstofutureofmobility-120802053002-phpapp02"

    1. 1. New Mega TrendsImplications to Future of Mobility Sarwant Singh Partner and Practice Director Automotive & Transportation
    2. 2. Presentation AgendaMega Trends Impacting MobilityMicro Mobility Market OverviewTraditional Car Sharing in Europe (G3) – An UpdateOpportunities in Peer to Peer CarsharingFuture of Integrated MobilityVerdict 2
    3. 3. Mega Trends Impacting MobilityUrbanization E-Mobility Smart and Sustainable New Micro Mobility Cities ProductsCar Sharing/Car Sustainable Public Integrated Mobility New Business Models Pooling Transportation and BRT Solutions (Value for Many)High Speed Rail Geo-Socialization Connected and Wireless Power to the Middle And Social Media Planet Class and Gen Y Photo Credits: Dreamstime and Commons 3
    4. 4. MegaMega Cities Regions Mega Corridor Mega Slums 4
    5. 5. There Will be 34 Mega Cities Globally By 2025 - 76% of Mega Cities to be From Developing World Moscow Nanjing London Harbin Chicago Paris Shanghai New York City Istanbul Beijing Hangzhou Madrid Tianjin Seoul Tehran Los Angeles ChengduWuhan Tokyo Delhi Osaka-Kobe Cairo Chongqing Mexico City Mumbai Guangzhou Kolkata Foshan Shenzhen Hong Kong Jakarta Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Buenos Aires Population in 2025 > 27 Million Note: Mega City is defined as a city with population of over 8 million and GDP of $250 billion or more 18-27 Million Source: : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012). World Urbanization 8-18 Million Prospects: The 2011 Revision , Frost & Sullivan, 2012 5
    6. 6. Over 26 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2025 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America Amsterdam Copenhagen Calgary Beijing Tokyo Vancouver Stockholm Oslo Helsinki London Berlin Toronto Paris Vienna Seattle New York BarcelonaSan Francisco Tianjin Chicago Los Angeles Wuhan Seoul Shenzhen Singapore Sydney Selected Smart Cities in 2025 Source: Siemens Green City Index, Forbes Smart City List, Innovation City Index, Specific Smart Project Websites for Each City, Frost & Sullivan, 2012 6
    7. 7. Cities, and Not Countries, Will DriveWealth Creation In the FutureCities like Seoul account for 50% of thecountry’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) andBrussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%.What are the Micro Implications?High Economic PowerHub and Spoke Business ModelTransit oriented developmentNew Mobility SolutionsCity as a Customer 7
    8. 8. Future Innovation in Mobility to Focus on The “Wild” Side Technology Innovation Wild Innovation Traffic Prediction system Mobility IntegrationUnknown Parking Search assistance New Mobility ProductsSolutions Cashless Payment Motorized Mover Two seated Electric Car Improvement Application Innovation Micro cars Car Sharing Known Electric Cars Car PoolingSolutions Electric Bikes Bike Sharing Met Needs Unmet Needs 8
    9. 9. Micro Mobility Solutions Market To Explode in FutureOpen-top models are largely there to target conventional bicycle, engine-driven scooter and motorcycle users; while the closed-tops are targeted at conventional car users One-wheeled One-wheeled Two-wheeled Two-wheeled Two-wheeled One-seating One-seating One-standing One-standing One-seating Motorcycle-type Bike-type Segway-type Bike-type OPEN - TOPTwo-wheeled Three-wheeled Three-wheeled Three-wheeled Four-wheeled Two-seating One-standing One-seating One-seating One-seatingSegway-type Scooter-type Motorcycle-type Scooter-type Wheelchair-typeThree-wheeled Three-wheeled Four-wheeled Four-wheeled Four-wheeled CLOSED - TOP One-seating One-seating One-seating Tandem Two-seating Three-seating Scooter-type Sports bike-Type Car-type Car-type Car-type 9
    10. 10. Overview of Micro Mobility Models by Key Global Mainstream OEMs About 125 micro mobility models announced by various stakeholders globally , 50% to go into production GM Ford Chrysler Renault VW Audi BMW Daimler Fiat PSA Hyundai Honda Toyota Nissan Suzuki Geely One-Wheel 4 P P P P P P P Two-Wheel P P P P P P P P 35 P P P P P P P P Three-Wheel P P P P P 35 P P P P P Four-Wheel P P P 37 P P P P P P P PTotal 4 4 1 5 8 7 12 4 2 20 10 13 7 7 5 2 111 Images: Only for illustration, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis.P = Production ready 10
    11. 11. New Sub A Vehicle Segment 16 Quadricycles in the EU Market Today and Expected to be Over 32 Models by 2013/14; Another 19 Sub-A Vehicles Will Launch in Next 3 to 4 years Existing (2010) Future (2011-2013) ? ? ZENN MyCar 4-seat MyCar Coupe Blowcar NT3 Ambra Optimax BE Two Nova Ixo M.Go Sonique Microcar Newteon Newteon Dario Di Camillo Piaggio Ligier Ligier Quadricycle Ligier Ligier Ligier Microcar Grecav ? E--City Microcar Crossline Scouty Roadline Barooder Speedino CH26 E2 Plus SC4P Queenstar Zero Pole Vehicule Aixam Aixam Aixam Aixam Chatenet Chatenet Chatenet EVE Simplicity GEF Motor Tazarri du FuturMICROCAR XTOO Mega City EKE Berlina Friendly F-City Pole Estrima Mycar BUDDY G-Wiz Land Glider 4 Seater 2 Seater YDEA M.Go Electric Ixo Electric Ligier Aixam Grecav Heuliez Vehicule du Newteon Newteon Pure mobility REVA Infiniti Little Electric Little Electric Microcar Micro-Vett Ligier Futur Twizy Z.E. Townpod Renault NXR NXG Nano EV BB1 Nissan REVA REVA TATA PSA Sub-A MicroTwingo Neoma Nano T25 POP City EV-N Gordon Kia Lotus Renault Lumeneo Europa Honda Murray TATA Urban T27 Smera City Eclectic 2 Mio Commuter Gordon Lumeneo FAM Auto Venturi Fiat Rinspeed Murray Lacoste PSA Panda 500 Agila Ka 107 C1 City C-Zero i0n iQ based 500 EV i-MiEV Smart ED Fiat Fiat Opel Ford PSA PSA Th!nk PSA PSA Toyota Fiat Mitsubishi A Daimler Bluezero E-Cell E-up! Leon Twin Drive Daimler VW Seat Key models on display at Paris Motor Show 2010 Electric Source: Frost & Sullivan 11
    12. 12. Market for Carsharing Services in Europe Traditional carsharing in Europe expected to reach nearly 15 million members by 2020 Market for Carsharing: Overview of Carsharing Members, Europe, 2011–2020 Market for Carsharing: Members Mix Percent Based on Commute- ~14.96 Million Mode and Customer Profile, Europe, 2020 Members Others* ~0.70 Million Members 100.0% UK 32.% Others* 75.0% Round-Trip Personal Mix Percent 67% 63% 30% UK France 50.0% 5.0% France 25.0% 33% Germany One-Way Corporate Germany 33% 38% 0.0% 2020 2011 Commute-Mode Customer Profile*All Others include Austria, Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Portugal Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 12
    13. 13. Traditional Carsharing in Europe – A Snapshot Germany, UK and Switzerland alone had nearly 77 percent of the Traditional Carsharing Members in 2011 • City Car Club > 150,000 • Sunfleet 80,000 – 150,000 15,000 – 80,000 <15,000 • Gocar 2020 Potential Nearly 15 million members in network More than 240,000 vehicles in carsharing fleetMob Carsharing Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 13
    14. 14. P2P Carsharing in Europe – A SnapshotFrance, UK and Germany alone had nearly 87 percent of the P2P Carsharing Members in 2011 Operations Carsharing Members in 2011 from 2012 > 80,000 15,000 – 80,000 <15,000 2020 Potential Nearly 0.75 million members in network Inactive More than 300,000 cars in P2P carsharing fleet Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 14
    15. 15. Case Study : BMW Fleet Strategy for Car Sharing Excellent Example of an OEM led Car Sharing Based Mobility Model BMW On DemandCorporate Vs. Personal Corporate Carsharing Personal CarsharingType of Carsharing 2 Way 1 Way 2 Way(One-way or Two-way)Market Segment (Premium) Retail customer - • Premium retail market – BMW(Premium vs. Mass Corporate segment 19,000 members ExperienceMarket)Vehicle Brands offered(BMW vs. Competitor) • Future can be multi-brand • None currently.EV vs. Non-EV None currently. • BMW i series expected 2013 onwards 950-1000 vehicles (MunichFleet Volume 60-70 vehicle test fleet. • 30 Different Models offered. Berlin, Dusseldorf) • Expand EU and NA • Commercial launch in 2012 • Continue as a BMW experienceFuture Vision • Achieve 1 Million DriveNow • Expand locations and fleet • Expansion key EU cities membership globally – 2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 16
    16. 16. The Future of Mobility is for ‘Green’, ‘Integrated’ and ‘Interoperable’ Transport Infrastructure - SMART Connectivity Real-Time Information Vehicle Services Management Systems Smart Ticketing/AFC:V2V & V2X Apps Store Services Vehicle Sharing IT Infrastructure Electric VehiclesCommercial Vehicle Telematics Source: ETSI Congestion Charging Source: ETSI 17
    17. 17. The Future of Mobility Is Multi-Modal Commuting, Combining Door to Door Solutions Using Dedicated Mobility Platforms Intercity Intercity 2020 Train SuburbsTRAVEL DISTANCE Intercity Bus Private Cars Shared Mobility City Shared Mobility CAR OWNERSHIP Public Transportation Micro-mobility Destination TRAVEL DISTANCE Door to door integrated, multi-mobility a reality in future Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first and last mile connectivity. Government to club public transport with bike / two wheeler/car rental schemes Market will see new players in market termed as “Mobility Integrators” Source: Frost & Sullivan 18
    18. 18. Convergence in Mobility - Example of CarsharingIn addition to dedicated CSOs and OEMs, leasing companies as well as transport operators eye the growing European carsharing market; Convergence expected in the short-term Vehicle Manufacturers (OEMs) BMW Point of convergence Daimler VW Renault Mobility Greenwheels Leasing ALD Stadtmobil Dedicated Companies LeasePlan Cambio CSOs ING Lease Autolib Arval Zipcar Avencar Helsinki public transport Swiss National Railway Amsterdam City PT Brussels STIB Transport Operators Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 19
    19. 19. Case Study of Mobility Integration by NS Business Parking Long distance Car Leasing and Car-Sharing Public Transport Others Management travel Car Car Bike Tele- Car Sharing Leasing Rentals Scooter Intra- Inter- Bike Car Company Name (Cycle) Taxi Ferries Trains Flight Refuel conferen Others (Traditional) (Long- (Short- renting City City Sheds Parking Renting cing term) term)OperatorsTransportCompanies Car Leasing Companies Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 20
    20. 20. Case Study of NS Business Card — Mobility Solution Only existing complete MI with 170,000 members and 1200 companies enrolled Business Market NS Hi Speed Train and Fyra Consumers Lounge and Transport Postillion Hotel discounts Taxi, OV- Fiets and Additional Trip Car Rental services OV Chip Taxi Greenwheels TrainsPlanner (Q-Park, Bike Card Car Rental Sheds) Public Transportation (Bus, Tram, Metro) Car Service Bike OV-Fiets Park Station Sheds Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 21
    21. 21. Case Study on Multimodal Transportation, ALD Automotive ALD Sharing • Corporate Carsharing • 5 out of 6 leased Multi Modal E-Drive to Bosch Transport • Pilot in France • Free 10 day • Train, Taxi and trial of electric Bicycle travel vehicles using N S Business card ALD Parking 7 Wheel Lease • Flexibility to • Piaggio MP3 Start and Stop scooter parking facility • Cost Benefits ALD RaiLease through mobile • Less polluting phone • Combines lease contract with access to trains Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 22
    22. 22. Conclusion : Future is James Bond................. 23
    23. 23. Conclusion : Future is James Bond or Jason Bourne! 24
    24. 24. Learn More About “New Mega Trends” Upcoming Book: New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives By Sarwant Singh Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=577 423 Join Our Mega Trend and Future of Mobility Groups On Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research
    25. 25. Contact UsSarwant SinghPartner & Practice Director, Visionary InnovationResearch Group and Automotive & Transportation (+44) 2079157843 sarwant.singh@frost.com
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