Frost sullivan travel2020 urban_mobilitytrends

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  • 1. Travel 2020 Panel DiscussionUrban Mobility Trends driving a new era of travel solutions Martyn Briggs Frost and Sullivan
  • 2. Introduction ...with thanks to our expert Panellists • Market led research and consultancy across 12 industry sectors (50 years) • Chris Cooper; IBM • Chas Ball; Carplus • Over 100 published reports in automotive • Mark Cartwright; RTIG Inform and transportation (2011) • Sharon Hedges; Passenger Focus • Nick Ford; Frost & Sullivan • Urban Mobility Programme focussing on trends and technologies• Close links with F&S research and events withNew Transit agenda and Travel 2020 themes• Editorial to promote event in October edition• Workshop suggested to capture all thesethemes with the experts and visionaries that aredriving them 2
  • 3. Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities,Mega Regions and Mega Corridors MEGA CITY MEGA REGIONS MEGA CORRIDORS City With A Minimum Cities Combining With The Corridors Connecting Population Of 8 Million Suburbs To Form Regions. Two Major Cities or Mega (Population over 15 Million) Regions EXAMPLE: Greater London EXAMPLE: Johannesburg EXAMPLE: Hong Kong- and Pretoria (forming Shenzhen-Guangzhou in “Jo-Toria”) China (Population 120 Million)
  • 4. The urbanisation and mega trends that will shape tomorrow’s mobility and transportation needs Mega Cities & Mega Vehicle Ownership Regions (Over 50 cities /Sharing Trends (Over 5 by 2025 <10 millions million members of carsharing in inhabitants) Europe by 2016) Integrated TechnologyMobility (smooth Developments inter-modality – (Integration - mobilemetro, bus, vehicle payment, cloud sharing, etc.) computing, security) New Economic Developments (BRIC Smart City (40 smart and Next BRICcities with state of the hard Infrastructure mobility & connectivity) developments) Standardisation & Harmonisation (inter- operability across systems) 4
  • 5. Cost to the Environment : Road Transport has the Highest CO2 of all transport modes – be it Freight or Passenger movement CO2 Emission by Transport Mode Global Co2 Emissions By Industry Sectors Industry 15% Land Use Truck 60 g/tkm Other Fuel Change Com bustion 12%Freight 9% Frieght Rail 23 g/tkm Vessel 20 g/tkm Agriculture 14% Air 205g/pkm Electricity & Heat 25% WastePassenger 3% Source: Frost & Sullivan, World Resources Institute Bus 160 g/pkm Others 8% Car 140 g/km Transportation 14% Light Rail/Metro 85.5 g/pkm Inter-City Rail 65 g/pkm Air 12% Road High Speed 2.2 g/pkm 71% Rail 7% Source: Alstom Transport, EcoTransIT, carbonneutralcalculator g/pkm – grams per passenger kilometer Ship & g/tkm- grams per ton kinometer Others 10% 5
  • 6. The Future of Mobility is for ‘Green’, ‘Integrated’ and‘Interoperable’ Transport Infrastructure - SMART Connectivity Real-Time Information Vehicle Services Management Systems Smart Ticketing/AFC:V2V & V2X App Store Services Vehicle Sharing IT Infrastructure Electric VehiclesCommercial Vehicle Telematics Source: ETSI Congestion Source: ETSI Charging 6
  • 7. Future Mobility Concepts: The Concept of a Dynamic Transport Solution Integrating Different Modes Under a Single Entity to make Personal Transportation Easy and Simple MultiModality Paving way to Mobility Integrators – One Stop Shop Mobility Solutions provider Telecom Operators Transport Operators Rail Bus Intercity Intercity Online Train Mobility Carsharing BookingTRAVEL DISTANCE Suburbs Agencies: Mobility Bikes Long Distance Mobility Integrator Intercity Bus Private Cars Short Distance Urban Mobility City Technology Carsharing Payment Solutions Public Engine Provider Micro-mobility Transportation Technology Evolution MOBILE 2.0 Destination TRAVEL DISTANCE WEB 2.0 Future Mobility is not just about vehicles, it EV Charging, is a convergence of different industry Telematics Providers sectors that is interacting seamlessly Mobility Integrators (MI) to offer various types of mobility solutions to complement commuters inter-modality and multi-modality travel split. 7
  • 8. Urban Planning : Snapshot of a SMART Mega City Plan in 2020 SMART Infrastructure:SMART Buildings: Atleast 50% Multimodal Transport Hubsof buildings will be Green and Providing Excellent Air, Rail, RoadIntelligent built with BIPV. 20% Connectivity to Other Mega Cities. SMART Energy: 20% ofof the buildings will be Net Zero Energy Produced in theBuildings. City will be Renewable (Wind, Solar etc)SMART Technology:IntelligentCommunication SystemsConnecting Home,Office, iPhone and Caron a Single Wireless ITPlatform. SMART GRID: Infrastructure to Enable Real time monitoring of power flow and Provide Energy Surplus Back to the Grid Satellite Towns: Main City Centre will Merge with Several Satellite Towns to form ONE BIG MEGA CITY SMART Cars: Atleast 10% of Cars will be Electric Vehicles. Free Fast Charging Stations at every half mile. Source: Google Images 8
  • 9. Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage Transport = Door-to-door Mobility Connectivity GenY New Vehicles : BRT, Electric vehicles, High speed Rail Population Pollution New Business Models: Growth Vehicle sharing, Car pooling, Inter-connectivity: Inter- Congestion modality Urban Planning : Integrating Transportation Transport = Private Vehicle Globalisation Integrated Mobility : Mu, Freedom Multicity Virtualisation Convenience Social Responsibility Status Natural Resources Progress No Real Alternative Urbanisation Etc “People will always change for a better alternative” 9
  • 10. “Bring the Village Back into the City” Boris Johnson – Key TransportationInitiatives and Policies toward Integrated Mobility • Contactless SmartCard & (NFC) • Expansion of the National Rail (Overground) Integrated Ticketing Network • Smooth multimodality • Crossrail (East-West link) £16bn by 2018 • Real time passenger information •Tube Upgrade to increase capacity by 30% • Improved Connectivity – DLR, International, High Speed Public Transport Emission Congestion Management Transport Management• CO2 reduction of 60% by 2025 Integration • Congestion Charging Zone• Emission zone (Euro 4 from Jan •20% reduction in traffic density2012 for LCV and HCV) • Exemption for low emission• Buses 40% more fuel efficient New• All new taxis to be zero Mobilityemission by 2020 • Evs - Incentive (up to £5K) + Infrastructure • Bicycle Sharing (Barclays) – First year 4m journeys • New Cable Car (2m people) – Sponsored by Emirates • Car Sharing (Club) Schemes (£480k funding) 10
  • 11. Conclusion: Mobility Trends Research by Frost & Sullivan That WillProvide Opportunities to 2020 Urbanization E-Mobility Mega and Smart Cities Microcars Impacting Mobility Sustainable Public Integrated Payment New Urban Mobility Car Sharing Transportation & Mobility Solutions Business Models Social Media High Speed Rail Geo-Socialization IT based Solutions Strategy 11
  • 12. Contact Details THANK YOU Frost & Sullivan Martyn Briggs 4, Grosvenor Gardens Consultant, Automotive & Transportation London SW1W 0DH Direct: +44 (0) 207 915 7830 United Kingdom Email : Martyn.Briggs@frost.com www.frost.com 12