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  1. 1. c o l o u l f - l if e rc in d ic a h a n g in g tor char t in y f g e d b uel ce 3 Occonsumerfutures2020 C L E N Z 2a s/ h a nd w 4 h 7scenarios for 7 CLENZ 24/tomorrow’s consumers to il e t c le a ne r e d ec o le as s up p ly it s s t a r t up k demand to the w e lc o m e e p o r t a l r v ic ug r o w s e y
  2. 2. forewordbyell We can be sure of one thing about the Sainsbury’s, Unilever and Forum for the future: it will be radically different from Future have jointly produced Consumer today. The global recession shows how Futures as a practical tool to help quickly things can change – and we face organisations throughout the global much greater challenges to our economy consumer goods industry to prepare for and way of life, such as scarcity of key the future. We want to help them explore resources, rapid population growth, climate how consumer expectations and change and loss of biodiversity. These behaviour will change and use these new problems of sustainability affect our insights to take the lead in driving consumers and suppliers around the globe forward sustainable consumption. and are putting ever-increasing pressure on our business models. They make it We have combined our knowledge of essential for us to reorient our global product value chains, consumer demand, economy around sustainable, low-carbon behaviour change and sustainability to patterns of consumption. produce four plausible, provocative scenarios which explore possible Over the next 10 years we can expect major patterns of consumption in 2020. Brands changes to the consumer retail sector. are used to drawing on recent market Demand for basic resources such as oil, data and near-term market projections to water and staple crops is likely to increase help develop products and services, but and prices will rise. Consumers’ behaviour this tends to encourage only incremental and expectations will change: we expect change. By looking further ahead and growing demand for manufacturers and understanding what the future may hold, retailers to operate responsibly and to we can identify risks and opportunities demonstrate this through transparent value and even how we can help shape that chains. Successful brands will need to future. We plan to use the scenarios and innovate to meet challenges like these, accompanying tools to inspire innovation, develop sustainable products, services and inform business strategy and develop business models, and work with consumers sustainable business models. We urge to make them a success. you to do the same. This represents a huge opportunity for forward-thinking brands to position themselves at the heart of the new, green economy, evolving the market to meet Justin King, consumer needs in different, sustainable Chief Executive, J Sainsbury plc ways. Many brands have built a trusted relationship with millions of consumers, and with it brand loyalty, which can last a lifetime. We believe this gives them both the Amanda Sourry, power and the responsibility to help people Chairman, Unilever UK & Ireland lead better, more sustainable lives. In fact, it’s hard to see sustainable consumption becoming mainstream unless brands take the lead. Dr Sally Uren, Deputy CEO, Forum for the Future
  3. 3. introductionIn developed nations we live in an Consumer Futures 2020 aims to helpunprecedented world of super- businesses do this. It is designed as aconsumption. Our economy demands practical tool to help organisationsthat we consume to keep it growing throughout the global consumer goodshealthily. Marketing campaigns whisper industry plan for the future. It contains four“buy-me, buy-me”, and before we know it different but entirely plausible scenariosour homes are filled with ‘stuff’. We love which explore how patterns of consumptionto consume, and it is firmly engrained as and consumer behaviour may havea social norm – a (sometimes) fun, changed by 2020.(mostly) daily activity that the majority ofus partake in. Globally, we already The scenarios are not intended to beconsume 30% more resources each year predictions or visions of desired futures.than our planet can replenish. But if They look at how global trends may changeeveryone consumed at European rates our world and the consumer goodswe would need three planets, and industry, and how sustainable products,Americans have a five-planet lifestyle.1 services and business models could become mainstream.It’s clear we cannot go on this way. Weface unprecedented challenges, such as None of the ideas, fictional brands oraccelerating climate change, loss of stories in any of the Consumer Futuresbiodiversity, rising social inequalities, materials are predictions of what the futurerapid population growth, and growing will hold, nor do they represent whatdemand for water and key commodities. Sainsburys or Unilever is currently planningWe must adapt our societies and to bring to market. They are simplyeconomies to sustainable patterns of designed to bring the scenarios to life.consumption – low if not zero-carbon,resource-efficient and profitable – as Future scenarios are an invaluable tool forsoon as we can. forward-thinking businesses to use when planning ahead. They help identify risks andRetail businesses are used to responding opportunities, inform strategy development,to consumer demand, or ‘pull’ – it is their and stimulate innovation. Sainsbury’s andprincipal business driver – but this will Unilever are already using them to explorenot deliver the radical changes we need new ways of collaborating on initiatives thatto create a prosperous, resource-efficient will deliver sustainability and commercialworld. Most consumers don’t have benefit to both organisations.enough information, opportunity ormotivation to make sustainable choices The scenarios are accompanied by a toolkitabout how they buy and use products, so to help you make best use of the scenarios.‘green’ or ‘sustainable’ consumption is It includes six sketched-up products andstill niche, and companies make only services for each scenario illustrating howincremental improvements. Leading brands may meet consumer needs in 2020,brands need to take the initiative and and a set of personas which can be used towork together to stimulate consumer pull analyse the scenarios from differenton sustainability and make ‘sustainable consumer perspectives.consumption’ mainstream.1 Goncalves, E. (2008). One Planet Lifestyle, WWF
  4. 4. ‘my way’ ‘My way’ is a high-t ech world , with a prosp erous and entre prene urial econo my domin ated by stainable tream su commu nity-b ased trade . Smart s th at mains am. By produ cts promo te patter ns of res show a pipedre to remain omic and social consu mption that use less energ y and“Consu mer Futu n’t have n water and gener ate less CO . Many tion does ntal, eco haveconsump w key environme ext few years, we 2 fresh produ cts come in smart packa ging that keeps them ho e n s on exploring t play out over th hich focu each refrig erate d and chang es colou r trends migh future worlds w aviours. In when they pass the use-by date. ur possible rcha sing beh sures do it yours elf created fo attitudes and pu ntal pres rs’ e nvironme the mainstream, consume ternal social and into , ex services d them a nd scenario able go ods and ly deman thriving or ‘from me to you’ sustain active drive nsumers economy is or not co e global is a clear whether ‘From me to you’ is a world where hether th that there ses to ss of w s shows commu nities, colla borat ion and regardle ture sines sumer Fu s and bu innova tive busine ss model s facili tate subd ued. Con y, for smart brand sition to a low-ca rbon lifest yles. The econo my ity, toda the tran sy for is subdu ed and uncer tain and opportun y by accelerating king it ea ‘from me to s consu mers feel busine ss is failing make m one will mean ma ucts and service delive r on the challe nges faced by to le fu ture. This erin g prod hea lthier, sustainab to go green by off environment, but socie ty. Peer- to-pee r lendin g indicators excha nges are commo n, for examp nsumers r for the le, co ette where prope rty owner s band not just b Future which are sting.” toget her to loan money for longer-la m for the EO, Foru mortg ages. debt cheap er and puty C inequalit y personas oil Uren, De UK index of inequality Average UK adult debt including mortgage Dr Sally Price of oil per barrel (Gini coefficient; high is less equal) 50% £50k less pros $155 $150 $124 40% £40k 38% $93 30% 34% £30k 32k 30k $90 • louise was brought$62 in the country and still20% up £20k lives in the same village. $31 10% £10k • although louise is single, she has a small $0 0% 2011 2020 £0k 2011 2020 2011 2020 circle of good friends and her family all live nearby. nanotec h • louise drives a companyUK car.rket power superma market taken by top 4 % of grocery online spend Number of nanotech- based consumer products % spent online • she is a sales rep for a large uk sports 90% supermarkets 32% 9000 30% retailer and spends a lot of her time away 25.6% 7200 72% 76% on business. 19.2% 5400 54% • image is everthing in her world of55% and 12.8%work 3600 36% she always looks presentable. 10% 1800 18% 8.4% • louise looks forward to relaxing at home on 0 1300 1500 0% 0% the weekends. 2020 2011 2020 louis e (33) 2011 2020 2011 • She’s a vegetarian. nd live v ery ‘my wa re will th ink, act a Consumer , suzie’s shampo y’ the futu s such can help “Consu mers of ey d o now. A t that o story ntly fro m how th nd useful insigh cts to meet differe inating a eir produ unchcoootunmeity land mm our is a fasc es and th la f nts Futures themselv . With the recent all position these s sm all ho ld ing brands needs spondin g to w co nsumer re rs these ne n we are custome ability pla rucial to helping hon ey eg g ap 0 sustain nd we are m for sha mpo o st re ss 202 rship is c re ss l iours a – sig n up now yo ur stmo de r . Leade v – rea d rev ble beha Unilever and Foru ar e – sen d to a iew s changes sustaina fri end e to more worked with both sight.” fe Ta ke a s t chang mi nu te i to have aluable in ur y plc 1 br ea th ou t in s delighted n creating this v 2 ea t Sainsb br e Futu re o xecuti ve, J1. Suzie’s local community th fE ing, Chie lan d fo r a hav e ra ise pr Justin K Lo ca l ‘gr ee oje ct to sup ply mo d fun ds to de vel op re and hav e lau n’ ent re pr ene urs hav ho me -gr ow n pr od 2. Ba tch es nch ed e lat ch a ra ng e of uce . ed on to thi of the nat ura inc lud ing a loc s ba se d upo l sha mp oo nat lan d pr ov ide ura l ho ney eg g sha al to ile try pr od uct ex clu siv e n loc al de ma nd and it’s ar e ma de to or de s all the ing mp oo s pr r re die nts the . The co mm uni ty and hav e sp od uct . Suz ie’s fr ien ds co nsi de re d qui te an 3. On the we ent re pr ene re ad the wo hav ek urs nee d. It’s low -ca rb rd ac ro ss e alr ea dy tri ed it the sha mp oo en the pr od uct on cr ed ent ial s ar e the ir so cia l net wo lif e and sim . She he ld in hig rk . Suz ie to giv has alr ea dy wo n ra h-r Str es s and ply do e it a go . ve re vie ws eg ar d and fa tig u pr om pti ng co mm on no wa hai r ca n be da ys use d to str es s, the a co mp sh am po
  5. 5. ‘sell it to me’ ‘Sell it to me’ is a perso nalise d consu mer world in a flour ishing globa l econo my which is domin ated by brand “Companies s. Innova tive produ cts provid e perso will have to ch nal to deliver long ange the way health soluti ons, for examp le clothe s -term sustaina they do busine impreg nated with vitamin s or shamp ever-greater co ble growth. Th ss, lather that chang es colou r to indica oo nsumption, w e old model of tebroken. Compa ith growth at minera l defic iencie s. nies that succ any price, is that reduce th eed in the futu eir environmen re will be thos social and ec tal impact whi e onomic impa le increasing we find new w cts. This will on their ays of doing bu ly be possible Unilever intro siness, and th do it for me if duced its Sus is is why out a more su tainable Living stainable busi Plan which se ‘I’m in your hands’ ness model. ts It will become ‘I’m in your hands ’ is a tightl y ever-more im regul ated world in which consu mers future needs portant for us and expectat to anticipate trust brand s to provid e what’s best can drive sust ions of our co the for them and for the enviro nment. ainable growth nsumers so th The econo my is recov ering from future. and ensure ou at we you’ reces sion but growt h is low and credi t is tight. Consu mers might be r own long te rm We are please fitting their homes with entire ly d to have been 2 Cradle to grave brand -spons ored bathr ooms that the Future an able to work w provid e them with perso nalise d d Sainsbury’s ith Forum for superma rket deliver y in doing this.” on Consumer ent church of england suppli es of brand ed toilet ries on trust Futures to he Retailer leased equipm deman d. 1 food imports Amanda lp us lifetime supply of rental produc ts % of people who say that most people Sourr y, Chair % of food consumed in UK that is imported in their neighbourhood can be trusted 65% man, Unileve 70%spero us r UK & Irelan 56% 62% 52% 60% d 42% 50% 39% delicio us meals 3 cooked in-store Cook no more 28% 26% 27% ‘I’m in yourserviceds’ han 14% 13% 0% 0% 2011 2020 s 4 products and 2011 2020 Tastier medicine attitude s to househo ld spend ent environmenvironment / who say that % of people in-store biometr ic % of household expenditure that goes on pollution should be a government priority benefit s monitor ing food and (non-alcoholic) drink device smooth ie with 70% collect ion 30% added statins 56% e r ia l s g aw mat a c t u r in 24% 24% underwe ar r manuf impregn ated 18% 42% with vitamins 40% 12% 15% 28% 35% tailored health service. Andy’s vital stat s 6% 14% benefit discoun ts 0% rice fortifie d with iron 0% 2020l if e 2020 2011 end of 2011 6 5 e Made-to-measure valu n Benefits collection ? chai ‘my waistribution suzie’s d y’ sh ampoopple ve ls ele ctr oni c hea lth rec storyra te : or d s Suz ie’s str ess hist ory : er use 4ew la x,to re nd consum realtim e shelf-l ife: 4.5 days remaini ng R e t a iling in a ep lo w, de hs . honey egg shampo o wat er usa ge lo g 3 ’s mo nth ly To find out more and download water saving june the Consumer Futures toolkit go to: 5 exc lus ive awand , Suz ie cy rd- winn ing hon ey egg cle s to the sha mpo oe lea ds a loc al ma rk ver et oe sn’ t hav y fa st- pa ce d and str to buy e timue- re lat ed e dur ing the we ek es sf ul he to . Ho we ver , alt h co nd itio ns ar e sh op . 4. As the sh sh elf lif e. pr olo ng thi am po o is so The sm ar t fr es h it on ly has a ‘ke ep -co ol’ 1 we ek 6 be qui te o pr ov ide ca use co rti so l lev s pa ac cur ate ly by an ex tra we ek and ck ag ing he lps to a els in 5. Suz ie lovoo ent re pr mo re ob jec tiv e me a T me as ure s a the int ell es to re la
  6. 6. prosperous do it yourself ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ do it for me ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ less prosperous In order to create our scenarios we took what we see as the two least certain trends with the greatest impact on the future of the consumer goods industry: Prosperous vs Less prosperous – by 2020 will our economy be flourishing or subdued? Do-it-yourself vs Do-it-for-me – will consumers take the initiative to satisfy their needs or expect brands to do this for them? We used these to create a two-by-two matrix, which in turn enabled us to create the scenarios exploring how these trends could play out, as illustrated along the axes. how sustainable are these futures? The scenarios help us understand what possess something just to derive a mainstream sustainable consumption could benefit. look like. None of them portray a world where consumption is truly sustainable, but in each A better choice of choice, where the scenario, social and environmental pressures unsustainable product or service is no have made aspects of it commonplace. But longer available and consumers are first, what do we mean by sustainable choosing within a set of sustainable consumption? There are umpteen definitions options. The concept of consumer out there. We think sustainable consumption sovereignty – where we all have a free is characterised by, but not limited to, the choice – is a fiction. By deciding what to following features: stock, and what to make, retailers and manufacturers have already made choices Smart growth, where economic growth is on behalf of their consumers. not delivered at the expense of the environment, and where the overall Positive social impact, where what and environmental footprint of business has how we buy promotes well-being in reduced. Smart growth is characterised by individuals, communities and supply ‘decoupling’ commercial success from chains. Right now, we know that simply environmental impact, often by delivering buying more and more ‘stuff’ doesn’t more economic value per unit resource used. make us any happier, and certainly doesn’t promote community cohesion. In fact, Smart use, where impacts associated with analysis of the recent civil unrest in the UK product use and disposal are minimal. It is tells us that the pursuit of shiny ‘stuff’ can characterised by closed loops, or even open be an indication of communities in loops, where someone’s waste is another’s distress. So, smart consumption involves raw material; take-back schemes, where transactions for goods and services that used goods return to the manufacturer; have a positive social benefit, where product to service shifts; and different novelty and implied personal status are farg ownership models – consumers don’t need to less important than they are today.ts
  7. 7. scenario 1‘my way’1. the economy is… prosperous, and characterised by high levels ofentrepreneurial activity2. government is… limited in its role at national level, but more active at thelocal level3. our society is… optimistic but individualistic and deeply divided between havesand have-nots4. business and brands are… less powerful and forced to innovateconstantly and to adapt to local needs… community-based trade dominates – oftenbetween communities in different parts of the world5. we buy stuff from… individual producers around the globe, local brands andbusinesses, cooperatives and online exchanges… we particularly like ‘home-grown’ orlocally produced products6. our relationship with brands is… demanding and unpredictable,web-based, interactive, transparent and influenced by peer-to-peer recommendation7. we use the internet and technology… to make our lives easier and tosocialise, trade and protest with people around the world8. we think that sustainability is… desirable in our local communities, butwhen it comes to global issues we often put the satisfaction of our own needs and wantsbefore the greater good‘underground veg movement and high-rise farming personal energy micro-manager ‘scoff-ometer’ cutlery personal energy 1st hydroponic and advanced 2nd scoffing glass technology monitor 3rd ‘underground veg’ movement ian 4 hom e th pl ac e – instant feedback trav el – networkab le – compete with friends
  8. 8. scenario 2‘sell it to me’1. the economy is… flourishing and globally integrated... consumer spending andcredit levels are high… large companies dominate2. government is… strong nationally but weak at local level... increasingly beingreplaced by market-based mechanisms to deliver social and environmental goods3. our society is… over-reliant on consumerism and pleasure seeking, withincreasing income inequality and declining social cohesion4. business and brands are… dominant, trusted and expected to providesolutions to environmental problems… investing heavily in the shopper experience5. we buy stuff from… trusted brands, one-stop ‘shopper-tainment’ villages andsmall specialist companies owned by large retailers6. our relationship with brands is… highly personalised, pleasure seeking,demanding and based on trust7. we use the internet and technology… largely for entertainment andmaking our lifestyles easier… but businesses use it to gather large amounts of personalinformation on us8. we think that sustainability is… a mainstream issue, together withhealth or effective public services, but ultimately we don’t feel a duty to change ourlifestyles as we’re sure that businesses and institutions will solve the world’s problems diet manager design your own products branded baby bonds the floyd family personalised products analysing household requirements and updating shopping ate: ment d list in v e s t ju n e 2 0 2 0 18 th f lo y d c hr is na m e : 12 6 7 8 43 68 information lifelon database discount
  9. 9. scenario 3‘from me to you’1. the economy is… subdued and uncertain... fear about climate change and severeweather has increased… communities are turning to alternative economic models2. government is… losing the confidence of the public and increasinglyneglecting the wider public realm… quality of life and the ‘wellbeing’ agenda, however,are dominant concerns3. our society is… feeling the pinch of resource constraints, high personal debtand low pensions but building stronger local community ties and home-grown solutionswhere government fails to take the lead4. business and brands are… suffering from a contraction in the retailsector… having to work hard to win trust as consumers feel that business is failing todeliver on the challenges faced by society5. we buy stuff from… direct and local sources, cooperatives and peer-to-peerservices for swapping and selling goods... we like to grow our own produce in urbanfarms and make or repair more stuff ourselves6. our relationship with brands is… less loyal and more volatile… lessimportant than word-of-mouth recommendations, product quality and longevity7. we use the internet and technology… as the heart of our social andeconomic life and individual identity... to trade or buy collectively and to increase ourcooperative buying power8. we think that sustainability is… something local communities need totackle… going to involve cutting net consumption rather than simply consuming moresustainable products for sale peer-to-peer the mortgages community es fin do rf fa rm sh ar or e y mo f farm farm tha t arr t o : h : f in d o r this is to cer tify 100 fro m , her e ’s har ry moo re own s rry r h a ir d sha res dea arly b new an e e that n o t ic d u c e is o m e a p r o a b l e . c ic k u p a v a il g a n d p alon ken! c h ic peer-to-peer bankers first-time buyers
  10. 10. scenario 4‘I’m in your hands’1. the economy is… recovering from the recession but growth and consumerconfidence are low and credit is tightly regulated… the UK is looking to promote localmanufacturing and food production to reduce its reliance on a shaky world trade system2. government is… more centralised and more interventionist, and works closelywith businesses and NGOs to deliver essential services… using tough regulations to achievesustainability targets3. our society is… more egalitarian, structured and supervised, but we welcome thisand enjoy a strong consensus, sense of community and national identity4. business and brands are… big and dominant yet bound by government’sstrict sustainability guidelines… trusted, reliable, paternalistic brands do well in thisworld and are the vehicle for long-term relationships with consumers5. we buy stuff from… trusted brands and businesses, often committing tolong-term contracts or hire purchase agreements to get value for money… big retailerswith high street shops that do home delivery for all the goods6. our relationship with brands is… long-term, personal, loyal andconservative… we are happy to share lots of personal data with brands and we trust themto provide what’s best for us... we want products to be effective and durable7. we use the internet and technology… heavily… to find the best dealsand purchase basic supplies… to scrutinise the origin and quality of products8. we think that sustainability is… critical… a matter on which governmentand business take the lead, while frugality and a ‘waste not want not’ attitude are alreadythe norm for us retailer leased in-store benefits equipment lifetime products rental supply of cradle to grave benefits collection collection neighbourhood church benefit discounts
  11. 11. recommendationsBusinesses and brands should start taking action now to prepare for a rapidly changingeconomic, environmental and social climate. Here are our five key recommendations:Take innovative business models to marketIn all of our scenarios, brands and businesses have evolved and adapted their newbusiness models to address challenges such as resource scarcity, changing consumerdemands and the need to build resilience into value chains threatened by the acceleratingimpacts of climate change. Companies should be ready to innovate and to develop, trialand learn from experimenting with new, sustainable business models. The companies thatdo this today will be the ones profiting tomorrow.Work with your value chain to find new solutionsManufacturers and retailers operate in a complex system, and the challenges of shifting tosustainable consumption are too great for any organisation on its own. Companies shouldcollaborate across their value chain, incentivising farmers, suppliers, designers,producers, retailers and others to work with them to find innovative solutions to bringinggoods and services to market.Strengthen local brands and local productionThere is no guarantee that global brands will continue to win the hearts and minds ofconsumers. In two of our scenarios, communities have built up resilient systems to sourcethe products and services they need. Brands that embrace and boost local productionand have a local authentic story will resonate with consumers.Build up long-term trust through transparencyConsumers can find information on the origins of products and services more easily thanever before thanks to social media and advances in information and communicationtechnology (ICT), and this trend is likely to continue. Companies are unable to keepenvironmental or social skeletons in their closets in any of our scenarios. In this world,‘green’ and ‘ethical’ are no longer niche, and robust standards on environmental andsocial performance are mainstreamed into everyday products and services.Companies should prepare for a world where society demands absolute transparencyfrom brands. Businesses which open up their value chains for scrutiny now will earn themost trust from consumers.Use the power of marketing to accelerate sustainabilityDon’t wait for consumers to demand more sustainable products and services. Savvybrands will make money by accelerating the transition to a more sustainable world.Companies should use their marketing, communications and innovation skills to createconsumer demand for sustainable and profitable products and services. Brands need tounderstand possible future consumer needs better and to positively influence the thingsthat consumers buy and how they use and dispose of them.
  12. 12. about Forum for the Future: Consumer Futures has been led by Forum Overseas House 19–23 Ironmonger Row for the Future in partnership with London, EC1V 3QN Sainsbury’s and Unilever. United Kingdom Registered charity number: 1040519 Forum for the Future is a non-profit Company limited by guarantee: 2959712 organisation working globally with Date of publication: October 2011 business and government to create a sustainable future. We aim to transform Forum for the Future authors: the critical systems that we all depend on, Fiona Bennie, Dan Crossley, James Goodman, Jemima Jewell, Hugh Knowles, Sally Uren such as food, energy and finance, to make them fit for the challenges of the Forum for the Future support team: 21st century. We have 15 years’ Ruth Curran, David Mason, Ulrike Stein experience inspiring new thinking, Special thanks to the Sainsbury’s and Unilever building creative partnerships and teams for their contribution to this project. developing practical innovations to For more information please contact: change our world. Fiona Bennie Dan Crossley Design by: Ian Dera J Sainsbury plc was founded in the UK in 1869 and today operates a total of 934 stores comprising 557 supermarkets and 377 convenience stores. Sainsbury’s stores have a particular emphasis on fresh food, and we strive to innovate continuously and improve products in line with our customer needs. We now serve over 22 million customers a week and have a market share of over 16 per cent. We employ over 150,000 colleagues. Unilever is one of the world’s leading suppliers of fast-moving consumer goods. Consumers buy 170 billion Unilever packs around the world every year, and our products are used over two billion times a day. Our portfolio includes some of the world’s most loved brands including Knorr, Hellmann’s, PG Tips, Lipton, Dove, Vaseline, Persil, Cif, Flora and Marmite. We have around 167,000 employees in over 100 countries, and generated annual sales of €44.3 billion in 2010. For moreTo find out more and download the Consumer Futures information please visit www.unilever.comtoolkit go to: and