Battery market
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Battery market

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Battery market Battery market Presentation Transcript

  • Powertrain 2020 Li-Ion batteries – the next bubble ahead? Munich/Shanghai/Detroit – February 2010 © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2010 1
  • Disclaimer Di l i > The conclusions and recommendations in this document are based on market knowledge of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants or drawn from information and data gathered through desk research and interviews > Interviews reflect the opinions of experts at individual companies and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the interviewee's organization > The statements made by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants are based on assumptions held to be accurate on the basis of the information available > Roland Berger Strategy Consultants assumes no liability for the correctness of the information and statements made within this document as well as for actions undertaken upon this document > The document is for personal use only and not to be disclosed to third parties © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2010 2
  • SUMMARY Manufacturers of LiI b tt i currently enjoy a business M f t f LiIon batteries tl j b i hype – but massive consolidation expected in next 5..7 years > Share of electrified powertrains will increase in all major Automotive markets - driven by significant battery cost reductions in the next 10 years > PHEV and EV in main regions account for not more than 1,2 mio vehicles in 2015 in an aggressive scenario – LiIon battery demand for HEV/PHEV and EV account for 0,82 mio "EV equivalents". Demand for LiIon batteries might further increase significantly until 2020, but 3 mio unit "EV equivalent" will not be reached before 2018 i l t" ill t b h db f > Announced investments will result in significant overcapacity in the period between 2014 and 2017 (200% of 2016 demand already in 2015), especially in the US and Japan > In addition, high levels of R&D and CAPEX will be required to drive down costs fast: EUR 50..100 m for new cell chemistry, EUR 350 m for 100k unit plant > Therefore only six to eight global battery manufacturer will survive in the next five to seven years – critical size approx. EUR 600m revenues in 2015 > Western governments need to act in order to avoid loosing future technologies to Asia, battery suppliers need a well defined strategy to gain market shares fast to survive, y pp gy g investors should be aware of massive investment risks Source: Roland Berger © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2010 3
  • Share f l t ifi d Sh of electrified powertrains will increase in all major t i ill i i ll j Automotive markets Share of powertrain technologies in major markets in 2015/2020 – High scenario Western Europe p Japan 1% 0% 0% 2% ICE (None + Mirco) 5% 0% ICE (None + Mirco) 4% 4% 7% 4% 1% Mild 14% 1% 5% Mild 2% Full Full 9% 0% PHEV (serial) 6% 1% 0% PHEV (serial) 2015 PHEV (parallel) 2020 73% 2015 PHEV (parallel) 2020 EV EV 77% 94% 90% US China 1% 0% 0% 0% 6% 8% 4% ICE (None + Mirco) ICE (None + Mirco) 3% 2% 9% Mild Mild 7% 8% 1% 1% Full 2% Full 4% 2% 0% 0% 5% PHEV (serial) PHEV (serial) 2015 PHEV ( (parallel) ll l) 2020 74% 2015 PHEV ( (parallel) ll l) 2020 EV EV 79% 89% 93% Source: Roland Berger © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2010 4
  • Increased share of HEV/PHEV and EV is driven by massive I d h f d i di b i battery cost reductions in the next 10 years Potential cost progression of high energy battery cells [EUR/kWh] COST REDUCTION KEY POINTS ENABLERS > Cost improvements will cause market volumes to rise 475 substantially, further improving EV battery cost structure: - Internal economies of scale - Material supplier economies of scale/new entrants 300 > Significant advances in technology are required and are expected to be facilitated by substantial R&D 200 investments: - Design changes to remove components and increase energy density - Chemistry changes – up to EUR 100 m invest for new chemistry h i t > Large capital investments into efficient, cutting edge 2010 2015 2020 manufacturing infrastructures is necessary: approx EUR 350 m for 100,000 unit EV equivalent plant HIGH CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS DRIVE THE NEED FOR SCALE Source: Interviews, Roland Berger © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2010 5
  • PHEV and EV in main regions account f 1,2 mio vehicles i d i i i t for 1 2 i hi l in 2015 – LiIon battery demand for 0,82 mio "EV equivalents" xEV vehicles in major markets in 2015 (High scenario) and resulting LiIon battery demand Vehicles in Western Europe, Japan, US, China LiIon battery demand 2% 0,82 mio units EV equivalent 3% 3% Mio veh veh. 0% ICE (None + Mirco) 46,1 1% Europe Mild 1,3 0,38 0,32 US Full 1,6 PHEV (serial) 0,8 Japan PHEV (parallel) 0,1 China EV 0,3 92% 0,03 0,10 0 03 0 10 Assumptions: EV: 25 kWh PHEV: 12,5 kWh Full Hybrid: F ll H b id 2,5 2 5 kWh Mild Hybrid: 1,25 kWh EV/PHEV: LiIon batteries Full/Mild Hybrid: 65% NiMh / 35% LiIon batteries in 2015 Source: Roland Berger © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2010 6
  • Demand for LiI b tt i will f th i D d f LiIon batteries ill further increase significantly i ifi tl until 2020 - 3 mio unit "EV equivalent" not reached before 2018 LiIon battery demand in "EV equivalents" in major regions1) 2015 – 2020 [units] 6,0 0,2 0,1 Mild Full 4,4 44 PHEV (serial) 2,8 0,1 0,1 PHEV (parallel) EV 3,0 2,1 0,1 0 1 0,1 0,2 02 2,0 1,4 0,1 0,1 0,0 1,3 0,0 0,1 00 01 1,0 0,1 , 2,8 0,8 08 0,6 0,1 2,0 0,1 0,0 1,3 0,4 0,0 0,8 0,3 0,0 0,5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1) Europe, Japan, US, China Source: Roland Berger © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2010 7
  • However, announced investments will result i significant H di t t ill lt in i ifi t overcapacity in the period between 2014 and 2017 Main investments 20 biggest players only for Li-Ion battery manufacturing – Automotive Investments and estimated capacity in EV equiv in 2015 [EUR m '000] equiv. m, 000] Comments Total investment: > EUR 8,5 bn  Declared capacity will be 200% of Total capacity: ~2.6 mio. EV equivalents 2016 demand already in 2015 Average investment: EUR 350 m  Unannounced plans of key players Average capacity 2015e: 110 000 EV equivalents and other companies further increase overcapacity 1,494 1,357 ,  National subsidies stimulate investment in excess capacity, e.g.: – USD 2.6 bn loans, steered by US DOE (e.g. USD 1.6 bn for Nissan, USD 148 m for JCI/ 807 846 769 Saft) 713 – EUR 125 m for the Renault-Nissan/NEC Renault Nissan/NEC 462 420 alliance (AESC) for battery manufacturing 385 405 360 351 294 269 at Flins plant 195 202 214 242 200 149 140 144 – Investments for BYD, BAK, 77 40 85 87 55 60 110 60 70 9 25 30 CNOOC/Lishen strongly supported by the Chinese government g Li-Tec Li T SB JCI AESC E 1 A123 P Ener1 Pana- SK Lithi Bl Lithium Blue T hib LG Toshiba Sanyo D / Hit hi S Chi S Dow/ Hitachi SonyChine LiMotive Saft sonic EnergyEnergy Energy Chem KokamVehicle (BYD, – … EV Japan Energy BAK, Energy CNOOC/ Investments (EUR m) 2015 capacity (’000) EV equivalents LISHEN) Source: Deutsche Bank; press review; Roland Berger analysis © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2010 8
  • Overcapacity is especially expected i th US and Japan O it i i ll t d in the dJ 2015 demand and supply in major regions (units EV equivalents, high scenario) Comments 1.228.400 > EU: Not included: additional capacity planned but Capacity not officially announced for at least 100,000 "EV Demand (Sales) equivalent" units in Europe by Asian battery suppliers 859.000 No coordinated approach so far > Japan/Korea: Supply for S l f exported cars (T t h b id EV t d (Toyota hybrids, EVs, Mitsubishi iMEV) accounts for some hundred thousand EV equivalents Massive support to drive technology leadership 375.000 380.000 320.000 > US US: Overcapacity stimulated by massive subsidies, 160.000 stimulation of demand side missing 100.000 > China: 30.000 Announced invest in-line with expected d A di i li ih d demand d Government wants China to become market Japan/Korea US EU China leader in new energy vehicles Source: Roland Berger analysis © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2010 9
  • Only to l b l battery O l 6 t 8 global b tt manufacturer will survive i th next f t ill i in the t 5 to 7 years – critical size approx. EUR 600m revenues in 2015 Challenges for Automotive LiIon battery manufacturers will accelerate consolidation Overcapacity, price pressure Investment CAPEX needs Consolidation requirements for to ramp up ramp-up to 6 8 global 6..8 R&D: capacity: battery EUR 50..100 m EUR 350 m for companies for new cell 100k unit plant1) p chemistryy Ability to manage growth: yield rate, quality, cash flow 1) EV equivalents Source: Roland Berger analysis © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2010 10