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Zero carbon britain 2030

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Peter Harper from Center for Alternative Technology, CAT, speaking about the Zero Carbon Britain 2030 report in Derby Oct 2010

Peter Harper from Center for Alternative Technology, CAT, speaking about the Zero Carbon Britain 2030 report in Derby Oct 2010

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  • The size shows historical carbon emissions debt. How can we point a finger at the developing south and demand they decarbonise when we are responsible for the problem, and arent being ambitious ourselves?
  • We don’t use our energy wisely. The UK is still caught in an energy mindset of sometime around the 50’s when it was cheap. Our bills keep rising, we keep sourcing from increasingly unstable sources, but we can make massive efficiency gains.
    It will be so much easier to manage a shift to low carbon technologies with reduced demand. The measures we propose also help to smooth our demand cycles, create warmer more comfortable homes and generally increase wellbeing.
    56% requires some very ambitious projects and changes, but noone said getting down to zero was going to be easy.
  • We start in the Built environment, which accounts for a over half of our total emissions. But looking at the state of our homes, this is a very inefficient sector.
  • Our solutions are based around the synergies of sectors, and demonstrates the interactions and holistic approach to decarbonisation needed.
    We recommend a massive increase in the use of natural materials. These materials have a much lower embodied energy - the energy needed to create them. Materials such as wood, rammed earth and hemp-crete have small environmental footprints, are non-toxic, and also have the added advantage of giving a home a warm and natural feel. But where do these materials come from? What are the added advantages of using them? How will this change effect the rest of the energy system?
    In our scenario we’ve connected the dots, such as between building and land use, and the sequestration potential of natural materials. By locking carbon away in buildings in the from of wood and biomass we’re mopping up residual emissions. Assuming a high carbon price, there could be the situation whereby you would be paid to use wood and lock away carbon. This will require a revitalisation of the rural economy as these important materials are grown. More on that later.
    Again connecting the dots in the next point. The war-time style effort of retrofitting and insulating will help boost our ailing job market, and create thousands of jobs for tradesmen, builders and the building industry. If I was your average builder I’d be in the front-line of the demonstrations, its going to mean a LOT of employment opportunities. So finish up your bacon butty and get your placard.
  • Swiftly on to transport. I do often think our system is rather archaic. In an age of satelite communication, CERN particle colliders and Big brother, why are we still exploding toxic substances. We’re like children with fire crackers. Surely we can come up with something better? The technology we use in our transport hasn’t changed since Henry Ford.
    When we talk about electric cars the days of the G-Whizz are over. Weird bubble cars out the Jetsons are outmoded. Our infatuation with beauty and speed can still be answered, but quietly and without the noxious smell. The technology is getting better, if we make a commitment to go in this direction, with the associated incentives to the industry and tax breaks to consumers, we could see very rapid leaps forward in making this technology a reality. Cleaner air, less noise, no massive tanker trucks on the roads, and free from the fluctuating oil prices that are beyond our control.
    This Sounds like a society I’d want to be part of.
    Again, theres lots of dots to connect up that we’ve explored. Where does the electricity come from? Can we deliver it? How much pressure does this put on the grid? What about heavy goods vehicles and their power requirements? I cant go into the detail of all these in this presentation, but this is how we should be thinking about decarbonisaiton. As a whole not lots of little parts.
  • Getting to zero is going to mean some difficult tradeoffs though. But we have tried to create a scenario that makes allowances for the global nature of our society.
    Aviation is the hot potato of climate mitigation. The resent trends in flying patterns can easily be reversed. Journeys can be made through high speed trains, and international long haul holidays will be less frequent but for a longer period.
    The use of biofuels is a contentious issue, as the rush into this fuel has contributed to global deforestation and food price rises. In our scenario, the use of biofuels assumes only locally produced energy crops, matched by changes to our diets through massive decreases in meat consumption (dealt with in the land use chapter). It is not a technology that can be pursued in isolation, but must be carefully planned so as not to have negative environmental effects.
  • Our 2030 society is healthier and happier. Transport is as much about town planning as actual travel. We choose our transport mode according to the structure of our environment. If the shops and work were closer, with more home days, and public transport systems are efficient and effective.
  • Looking at the total energy picture, offshore wind is roughly half total supply. The next biggest use will be heat pumps. Don’t forget that this energy mix is 100% renewable. There are NO fossil fuels in our vision.
  • This very complicated diagram is a Sankey diagram for our energy supply and demand. The thickness of the line indicates the no. of terawatt hours per source (left) to its end use (right).
    Note that the loses (bottom) are minimal
  • Transcript

    • 1. Since their pioneeringSince their pioneering Low Energy Strategy forLow Energy Strategy for the UKthe UK in 1977, the Centre for Alternativein 1977, the Centre for Alternative Technology has been pointing the way towardsTechnology has been pointing the way towards a sustainable energy future for Britain.a sustainable energy future for Britain. Now the CAT researchers have done it again.Now the CAT researchers have done it again. Their newTheir new zerocarbonbritain2030zerocarbonbritain2030 report,report, describes in detail how the UK could make thedescribes in detail how the UK could make the transition to a zero carbon society as early astransition to a zero carbon society as early as 2030.2030. Derby Climate CoalitionDerby Climate Coalition Derby October 2010Derby October 2010
    • 2. ZERO CARBON BRITAIN 2030 Peter Harper Centre for Alternative Technology
    • 3. THE GREATEST EVER BRANCH- POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY? WILL WE RECOGNISE IT? MITIGATION SCENARIO 3-6° SCENARIO + PEAK OIL
    • 4. THE GREATEST EVER BRANCH- POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY? WILL WE RECOGNISE IT? MITIGATION SCENARIO 3-6° SCENARIO + PEAK OIL
    • 5. THE GREATEST EVER BRANCH- POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY? WILL WE RECOGNISE IT? MITIGATION SCENARIO 3-6° SCENARIO + PEAK OIL
    • 6. THE GREATEST EVER BRANCH- POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY? WILL WE RECOGNISE IT? MITIGATION SCENARIO 3-6° SCENARIO + PEAK OIL
    • 7. THE ‘CARBON BUDGET’ APPROACH GERMAN ADVISORY COUNCIL ON GLOBAL CHANGE
    • 8. COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY UK O FFIC IA L B UD G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L 173 2 3 M TC O 2 E) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
    • 9. COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY SLOW START: TOTAL 20788 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 UK O FFIC IA L B UD G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L 173 2 3 M TC O 2 E) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
    • 10. COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY SLOW START: TOTAL 20788 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RAPID START, TOTAL 12688 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 UK O FFIC IA L B UD G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L 173 2 3 M TC O 2 E) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
    • 11. COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY SLOW START: TOTAL 20788 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RAPID START, TOTAL 12688 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 UK O FFIC IA L B UD G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L 173 2 3 M TC O 2 E) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ZCB scenario 2008-2050 with net sequestration. Total 7958MtCO2e -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
    • 12. Equity - taking a global lead
    • 13. Now 2030 Report to reality
    • 14. LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH Rationalisation of demand
    • 15. LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH Rationalisation of demand Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
    • 16. LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH Rationalisation of demand Net-negative processes Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
    • 17. LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH Rationalisation of demand Emissions envelope Net-negative processes Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
    • 18. LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE ZCB2030 APPROACH Rationalisation of demand
    • 19. From Baiocchi and Minx, 2010
    • 20. • 56% reduction in energy use by 2030 • Sector by Sector: – Built environment – Transport – Land-use – Industry – Behaviour
    • 21. • Domestic approx 30% total emissions 2030 - reduce energy use (heating & lighting) by 80% • Non-domestic 25% of total emissions 2030 - 37% reduction in emissions • Large emphasis on retrofitting UK Buildings are incredibly inefficient Built environment
    • 22. • High proportion of natural materials low embodied energy & sequestration • Insulating - large-scale retro-fit programme. • Heat pumps • Thermal Comfort • Energy Service Companies (ESCO’s) Built environment
    • 23. • Partial modal shift - private car to public transport, walking and cycling • Reduction in passenger km • Change of energy source from fossil fuels • Electrification of cars, trains & LGV’s Electric cars get a makeover Transport - overview
    • 24. • No domestic aviation, 1/3 international on current levels • High speed electric train network • Indigenous bioenergy & hydrogen to power HGV’s and planes Why don’t we have these in the UK? Transport
    • 25. NOW 2030 Transport - modes (km)
    • 26. POWER UP Rationalisation of demand Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
    • 27. Offshore wind Heat pumps Electricity, heat and transport 2030
    • 28. All Generation over a year
    • 29. Balancing Supply and demand over a year
    • 30. Variability overview • Variable demand • Variable supply • Intra-Day • Seasonality • Real time matching • Balancing services
    • 31. • High Voltage DC Grid • Linking up the offshore wind-farms • Also linking the winter wind to the summer sun EU Energy network
    • 32. NET-NEGATIVE PROCESSES Rationalisation of demand Net-negative processes Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
    • 33. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS: GHG EMISSIONS, LAND REQUIREMENT, OUTPUT. ADJUSTED FOR NUTRITIONAL VALUE AFTER MAILLOT 2009 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 O TH ER C RO PSO ATS PE AS AN D BEANS FR U IT BE ET VE G ETABLESBA RLEY PO TATOES RAPE PR O TECTED C ROPS W H EAT HO RS ES etc EG GS PIG S SH EEP PO ULTRY BE EF M ILK FOOD PRODUCT GROUPS, IN TWO CLASSES EMISSIONS,KT,LAND,KHAX4,PRODUCTKT Nutrionally-adjusted product Land used GHG emissions
    • 34. COMPARISON OF EXISTING AND ZCB2030 SCENARIO EMISSIONS -30000 -25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 PRODUCTS IN THREE CLASSES, RANKED BY EMISSIONS GHGEMISSIONS,KTCO2e/year Scenario emissions existing emissions
    • 35. Area functions in the Scenario Food Energy Sequestration Other Urban land Biodiversity Amenity Recreation Protected areas etc 53Mt food 176TWh primary energy -68MtCO2e
    • 36. Area functions in the Scenario Food Energy Sequestration Other Urban land Biodiversity Amenity Recreation Protected areas etc 53Mt food 176TWh primary energy -68MtCO2e
    • 37. Balance of GHG emissions from land use processes – at present AGRICULTURE AND LAND USE: BALANCE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVEEMISSIONS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 POSITIVEANDNEGATIVEEMISSIONS,MILLIONS OFTONNESCO2E Grazing livestock Non-grazing livestock Crop products Imports Negative emissions
    • 38. Summary of our results ZCB LAND-USE SCENARIO: BALANCE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EMISSIONS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 NEGATIVE POSITIVE POSITIVEANDNEGATIVEEMISSIONS,MTCO2E/Y Livestock products" Crop products Imports Negative emissions
    • 39. THE YAWNI NG CHASM POLI TI CAL REALI SM PHYSI CAL REALI SM FURI OUS ACTI VI TY ZCB
    • 40. THE YAWNI NG CHASM POLI TI CAL REALI SM PHYSI CAL REALI SM FURI OUS ACTI VI TY ZCB
    • 41. A B Physically feasible decarbonised worlds You are here
    • 42. A B Physically feasible decarbonised worlds You are here
    • 43. I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model          
    • 44. I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model • Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050        
    • 45. I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model • Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050 • Only technical measures to power down      
    • 46. I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model • Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050 • Only technical measures to power down • Uses nuclear, CCS, renewables to power up    
    • 47. I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model • Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050 • Only technical measures to power down • Uses nuclear, CCS, renewables to power up • Much more attention to adaptation  
    • 48. I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model • Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050 • Only technical measures to power down • Uses nuclear, CCS, renewables to power up • Much more attention to adaptation   ‘Air capture’ for net-negative processes
    • 49. SCENARIOS
    • 50. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM  
    • 51. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM   LOTS of it!
    • 52. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM Keep itcheap!   LOTS of it!
    • 53. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM Keep itcheap! No Power Cuts! LOTS of it!
    • 54. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM Keep itcheap! No Power Cuts! LOTS of it!
    • 55. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM Keep itcheap! No Power Cuts! LOTS of it! ...AND NO OFFSETS!
    • 56. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM Keep itcheap! No Power Cuts! LOTS of it! ...AND NO OFFSETS! ...OR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE!
    • 57. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM Keep itcheap! No Power Cuts! LOTS of it! ...AND NO OFFSETS! ...OR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE! ...OR GEO-ENGINEERING!
    • 58. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM Keep itcheap! No Power Cuts! LOTS of it! ...AND NO OFFSETS! ...OR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE! ...OR GEO-ENGINEERING! ...OR BIOFUELS!
    • 59. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM Keep itcheap! No Power Cuts! LOTS of it! ...AND NO OFFSETS! ...OR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE! ...OR GEO-ENGINEERING! ...OR BIOFUELS! ...OR LIFESTYLE CHANGES!
    • 60. MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM Keep itcheap! No Power Cuts! LOTS of it! ...AND NO OFFSETS! ...OR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE! ...OR GEO-ENGINEERING! ...OR BIOFUELS! ...OR LIFESTYLE CHANGES!
    • 61. NO ABSOLUTE TABOOS?
    • 62. NO ABSOLUTE TABOOS? • If it’s this serious everything must be on the table
    • 63. NO ABSOLUTE TABOOS? • If it’s this serious everything must be on the table • We would need to discuss in good faith matters that we have spent lifetimes campaigning against
    • 64. NO ABSOLUTE TABOOS? • If it’s this serious everything must be on the table • We would need to discuss in good faith matters that we have spent lifetimes campaigning against Others have honest and well-researched scenarios too
    • 65. THE END THE END

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