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Iran  Crisis  Final Iran Crisis Final Presentation Transcript

  • The Iranian Crisis
  • Presentation outline
    • Why is there a nuclear crisis in Iran?
    • The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty
    • Iran’s standpoint
    • Other reasons why Iran may want nuclear energy
    • Background and government structure
    • Timeline of events (1950's to 1979)
    • Timeline of events (1979 to 2002)
    • Iran's nuclear facilities
    • Relations between Iran and the World
    • Possible scenarios
    • How the world is dealing with Iran
    • Iran's response
    • Conclusion
    • Works cited
  • Why is there a nuclear crisis in Iran? The IAEA takes the position that it cannot “ confirm the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program”. IAEA announces (in 2003) that Iran had been hiding a nuclear energy program for 18 years Iran claims that it only wants to develop nuclear power for PEACEFUL PURPOSES (e.g. Generating electricity) The U.S. accuses Iran of wanting nuclear power to build weapons The U.S. demands that Iran halt its nuclear energy program But under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran does have a right to nuclear energy - as long as it doesn’t develop nuclear weapons
  • Why is there a nuclear crisis in Iran? Once nuclear weapons are obtained, Iran may sell them to other countries and groups, causing further conflict around the world. Tensions rise between the West and Iran Fear of military conflict and nuclear war Controversial remarks by Iranian President Ahmadinejad: “ Wipe Israel off map” “ There was no Holocaust” Bush labels Iran an “axis of evil”
  • The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
    • International treaty created in 1968 to limit the spread of nuclear weapons
    • Currently, 187 nations have signed the treaty, 5 of which possess nuclear weapons
    • The 4 nations that have not signed all posses nuclear weapons
    Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Iran Israel India Pakistan North Korea US UK France Russia China
  • Iran’s standpoint
      • The Nuclear Energy Program is for
      • "peaceful purposes" only
    The Iranian nation firmly stands behind its nuclear rights and the West will eventually have to acknowledge Iran's legitimate rights…
  • Iran’s standpoint “ Oil revenues will one day diminish, and nuclear energy would free more petrol for export…” Iran's Oil Situation
    • Though Iran has 3 rd largest oil reserves in the world, exports may be shrinking by 10-12 percent annually
    • This PETROLEUM CRISIS could drive its oil exports to zero by 2015
    • Iran is currently producing 3.7 million barrels a day – 300,000 below the quota set for Iran
    • This represents an annual loss of about $5.5 billion
  • Other reasons why Iran may want nuclear energy 1. Aggressive regional ambition 2. National defense 3. National pride 4. Domestic political pressure
  • Background
    • Islamic republic
    • Based on the constitution of 1979, which holds the ideas and principles of the Revolution
    • Universal adult suffrage for electing 
    • - the president
    • - the National Assembly
    • - the Assembly of Experts
    BUT the supreme leader cannot be directly elected by the Iranian people Iran's Top Priority (Poll by Zogby International)  
  • Background
    • The Rahbar (Supreme Leader) is chosen by the clerical judges who make up the Assembly of Experts
    • Doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih: society should be governed by a Supreme leader, who is the cleric best qualified to interpret God’s will and the meaning of Islamic law
    • Current Supreme Leader: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
    • The Supreme Leader is given the power to
    • 1. appoint judiciary, military,
    • and Friday prayer leaders
    • 2. select six of the twelve members
    • of the Guardian Council,
    • which passes legislation
    • and can even veto election
    • candidates
    The Rahbar, or Supreme Leader, has control of Iranian politics and policies, separate from the elected president.
  • Government structure
  • Timeline of events (1950’s~1979)
    • 1959 – Tehran Nuclear Research Center (TNRC) is established by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)
    • 1967 – TNRC is equipped with a U.S. research reactor which is fueled by highly enriched uranium
    • 1953 – U.S. helps overthrow Prime Minister Muhammad Mossadegh and replaces him with Shah (King) Mohammad Reza Pahlavi
    • 1957 – U.S. judges Iran friendly and that nuclear proliferation is not a threat; U.S. “Atoms for Peace” Program establishes a nuclear cooperation program in Iran
  • Timeline of events (1950’s~1979)
    • 1970 – Iran ratifies NPT
    • 1974 – Shah gives a speech:
    • “ Petroleum is a noble material, much too valuable to burn… We envision producing, as soon as possible, 23000 megawatts of electricity using nuclear plants”
    • 1974 – Bushehr is established; supplies energy to inland city of Shiraz
    The Three Pillars of the Non-Proliferation Treaty:
    • 1968 – Iran signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
    Disarmament Non-proliferation Peaceful use of nuclear technology
  • Timeline of events (1979~2002)
    • 1979 Iranian Revolution
        • - January Shah is forced to leave Iran after widespread strikes
        • - February Islamic leader Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini returns and takes power
        • - November Hostage Crisis: Iran students hold 63 U.S. hostages
      • in Tehran
    • 1980 Iraq invasion sparks Iran-Iraq war
    • 1981 Iran releases 52 hostages after holding them for 444 days
    • 1989 Revolutionary leader Khomeini dies
    • 1992 Iran criticizes the U.S. for regional interference and the Gulf War
    • 1992 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors visit Iran’s uranium mines
    • 1995 U.S. President Clinton imposes oil and trade sanctions , accusing Iran of sponsoring terrorism and seeking nuclear arms
  • Timeline of events (1979~2002)
    • 1997 Muhammad Khatami is elected as president
    • (Later calls for a “dialogue with the American people”)
    • 2000 February - President Clinton furthers sanctions on Iran
    • March - U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright lifts sanctions on Iranian exports and calls for a new start in US-Iran relations
    • September – U.S. and Iran hold talks for the first time since diplomatic ties were severed after the 1979 Hostage Crisis
    • 2001 The CIA accuses Iran of having active programs to acquire nuclear weapons and seeking missile-related technology from Russia and China
  • Iran’s nuclear facilities
        • 2002 - the IAEA declares that Iran had built a nuclear facility and kept it a secret for over 18 years
          • Natanz: facility for enriching uranium
    • 2003 - Iran agrees to let Mohammed El Baradei, Director-General of IAEA, to inspect Natanz
    Natanz
    • What El Baradei found:
    • Weapons-grade uranium samples
    • 50,000 gas centrifuges, enough to produce uranium needed to make 20 weapons per year
    • claim that the plant was contaminated by imported equipment
    • insist they were going to declare Natanz to the IAEA later on
    The Iranians:
  • Iran’s nuclear facilities Inspection of Natanz leads to discovery of Arak Further inspections bring to light other undeclared facilities such as Busheher: First nuclear plant built in 1974, with Russian assistance Isfahan: Uranium conversion plant Lavizan: Iranians dismantle site before inspection Kalaye: Swipe tests reveal nuclear particles, but Iranians assert that site was contaminated by imported material ARAK Arak: heavy-water reactor plant for producing plutonium U.S. declares that Iran had violated requirements of NPT by withholding information about Arak and Natanz
  •  
  • Relations between Iran and the World
    • Russia
      • Relies on oil imports from Iran
      • 2007 Jan - Offers Iran a joint enrichment program, in which all Iranian uranium is enriched by Russia, in Russia
      • Currently building Iran’s first big nuclear reactor at Bushehr
      • Not confirmed whether it will provide the reactor with nuclear fuel or how much longer it will take to construct the reactor
      • 2007 Oct - Russian President Putin visits Iran
      • Shows support for Iran’s nuclear program
      • Voted for UN Sanctions, but opposes enforcing a third sanction resolution
    Bushehr
  • Relations between Iran and the World
    • China
    • - heavily invests in Iranian oil
    • - expected to be biggest trading partner this year
    • Israel
    • - possesses nuclear weapons
    • (has not signed Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty)
    • - no diplomatic ties with Iran
    • - may attack Iran first, in hopes of destroying Iran’s nuclear plants
    Israel Iran
  • Possible scenarios
    • Action #1:
    • Action #2:
    EXTREME NATIONALISM ISLAMIC BELIEFS + Worsened U.S./Iran relations Escalation of Crisis $65 $100 Worldwide Damage Economic Sanctions Military strikes
  •  
  • How the World is dealing with Iran
    • 2006 - the Security Council and Germany offer Iran incentives
    • ★ Participation in the World Trade Organization
    • ★ Modernization of Telecommunications Industry
    • ★ Support of a civil nuclear energy program
    • ★ Construction of new water power reactors
    • but Iran does NOT accept these offers
    • and continues to enrich uranium
  • How the World is dealing with Iran
    • UN Sanctions
    • 2006 JULY - the UN Security Council orders Iran to suspend all uranium enrichment but Iran refuses
    • UN imposes 2 sanctions
    •       - 2006 December   (Resolution 1737)
    •         - 2007 March
    • (Resolution 1747)
    • However, these sanctions only ban Iran from trading some nuclear and military equipment and do not impede development of nuclear energy
  • How the World is dealing with Iran
    • US Sanctions and Policies Towards Iran
    • Separate sanctions imposed by the U.S. since 1979 become more severe
    •   Current US sanctions       - prevent U.S. companies from helping Iran develop its oil resources       - block most Iranian exports from entering the U.S.       - block some U.S. products from being sold to Iran  
    • Furthermore, since Iran’s refusal to suspend enrichment, the U.S. has
    • - blacklisted and denied Iranian firms and entities access to U.S.  financial systems       - isolated 2 Iranian banks: Bank Sepah and Bank Saderat from doing business with the rest of the world       - U.S. Treasury Department is discussing isolation policies with 40 banks around the world
    Iran-U.S. relations continue to worsen as Bush labels Iran’s revolutionary guards as “terrorists” (2007)
  • How the World is dealing with Iran
    • On October 26, 2007, the US imposed new sanctions
    • The US now claims
    • - Revolutionary Guards are proliferating weapons of mass destruction
    • - Quds Force is a supporter of terrorism
    • New sanctions
    • - further restrict Iran’s main oil and
    • engineering firms
    • - complicate new oil projects
    Just Recently…
  • Iran’s response
    • The government of Iran insists that sanctions will not change country’s direction
    • “ No pressure, bribe or threat can make Iran give up its legitimate right” to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes” (BBC)
    • - Hamid Reza Asefi, Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman
    • " Sanctions as a political tool for exerting pressure are ineffective in making Iran change its basically rational policy choice," (BBC)
    • - Manouchehr Mottaki, Iranian Foreign Minister
    • Iranian trade has shifted from West to East
    • Likely to withstand US and UN sanctions because of record high oil prices
    • Sanctions have increased prices of food and household items, hurting the Iranian people
    raising feelings of anti-Americanism
  • Conclusion
    • U.S. alone cannot solve the crisis
    •  More countries must get involved
    • Military strikes and severe economic sanctions will only increase tension
    •  Focus needs to be on diplomacy and dialogue
    • Only a matter of time before Iran acquires nuclear weapons
    •  Ultimate goal should be restoring relations with Iran so as to eliminate need for using nuclear weapons
  • Works cited
    • “ Ahmadinejad: Iran won't give up nuclear program”. CNN.com. 3 June 2006. 31 Oct 2007. <http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/06/02/us.iran/index.html>
    • David, Peter. “The Revolution Strikes Back: A Special on Iran&quot; The Economist. 21 July 2007: 1-16
    • &quot;Frontline:Showdown With Iran&quot;. PBS. 23 Oct. 2007. 1 Nov 2007.
    • <http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/showdown/view>
    • Hiro, Dilip. “Cooling the Iran Crisis.” Tom Paine Commonsense. 6 April 2006. 1 N o v 2007. <http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/04/06/cooling_the_iran_crisis.php>
    • “ Iran Nuclear Crisis”. China View. 6 Nov 2007. 31 October 2007. <http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/ylhwq/index.htm>
    • “ Iran rejects US nuclear incentive”. BBC NEWS. 12 March 2005. 30 Oct 2007. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4342839.stm>
    • &quot;Iran rejects six nations’ demands”. BBC News. 8 Oct 2006. 31 Oct 2007.
    • <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6031825.stm>
    • “ Iran rejects US nuclear incentive”. BBC NEWS. 12 March 2005. 30 Oct 2007. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4342839.stm>
    • &quot;IRAN: Who holds the power?&quot;. BBC News. 26 July 2007. 20 October 2007.
    • <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/middle_east/03/iran_power/html/default.stm>
  • Works Cited
    • “ Middle East Business News”. Al-Sahafa Newspaper Inc. 2 Nov 2007.
    • <http://www.al-sahafa.us/MapOfMiddleEast.htm>
    • “ Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty explained”. BBC News. 20 Sept 2004. 1 Nov 2007.
    • <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2645379.stm>
    • “ Russia and Iran in nuclear talks”. BBC News. 7 Jan 2007. 31 Oct 2007.
    • <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4590702.stm>
    • “ Russia backs Iran nuclear rights”. BBC News. 16 Oct 2007. 31 Oct 2007.
    • <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7046258.stm>
    • &quot;The CIA World Factbook:Iran&quot;. CIA. 1 Nov. 2007. 2 Nov 2007.
    • <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html>
    • “ UN passes Iran nuclear sanctions”. BBC NEWS. 23 December 2006. 24 Oct 2007. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6205295.stm>
    • &quot;Q&A: Iran and the nuclear issue&quot;. BBC News. 3 Sept. 2007. 5 Sept. 2007. 
    • <http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/4031603.stm>