Trading insights and strategy with SPX, IBM, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, and AMZN
 

Trading insights and strategy with SPX, IBM, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, and AMZN

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Over at TradingWithWaves.com we help traders leverage our Decision Support Engine (DSE) to improve their trading. This update is based on the information we share with members of our programs on a ...

Over at TradingWithWaves.com we help traders leverage our Decision Support Engine (DSE) to improve their trading. This update is based on the information we share with members of our programs on a regular basis. First we’ll get an overview of the market by looking at SPX and then we’ll take a look at five tech (IBM, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, and AMZN) stocks and where they’ll be heading.

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Trading insights and strategy with SPX, IBM, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, and AMZN Trading insights and strategy with SPX, IBM, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, and AMZN Presentation Transcript

  • Trading insights into five tech stocks Insights from the TradingWithWaves DSE to help your trading
  • First some context – over at TradingWithWaves.com we help traders leverage our Decision Support Engine (DSE) to improve their trading. This update is based on the information we share with members of our programs on a regular basis. First we’ll get an overview of the market by looking at SPX and then we’ll take a look at five tech (IBM, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, and AMZN) stocks and where they’ll be heading.
  • The Spx chart shows the blue path crashing from the '07 peak to the '09 trough, then rising out of the ashes of the greatest financial system implosion since the 1929 crash and Great Depression. The red channel lines show the initial strength off the '09 lows was broken by the '11 decline. That initial, lower channel line has since acted at resistance, perfectly reversing each rally attempt to return above it; until this last rise from the June low. Note the lower highs again in the stochs vs. higher highs in price; the telltale divergence that often precedes peak/reversals. SPX
  • Weekly stochs (not shown) haven't been this oversold since '06, and daily stochs (not shown) have already crossed up as of last week. The lower 2 sdb was tested last week, with a few days of prices closing below that statistical extreme, and have closed back above it this week. DSE tells us to expect at least a test of the low 200′s, with potential for the white path to allow a test of 250 in the coming months, and NOT to be short at this time. In fact, long is suggested, as long as 172 holds as a stop loss. IBM
  • AAPL which reported on 10/28 after the close and plunged from the 529 close to 503 on the initial announcement of its earnings, then screamed to 542, before falling again to 515, then rising to 538, falling to 523, talk about drama. You can see in the chart AAPL appears to be stabilizing in the 530′s, after bouncing all over the place since its earnings announcement. 550 is the upper 3 sdb, and 582 is the upper 4 sdb. From one of these levels, a significant decline should follow. AAPL
  • TSLA TSLA is approaching a short term low. The pattern off the recent highs is not clearly impulsive, this 160 area is ideal to take profits on shorts from higher levels, and tighten buy stops if you want to remain short. Above 171 would not be supportive of the bearish case, and in fact would support at least a small long exposure for a test of 190. The chart shows the loss of momentum between waves iii.'3 and iii.'5 using sdb's (standard deviation bands), and weekly and monthly stochs (neither shown) are both in "hard down" position. As the lower right comment in the chart notes, parabolic rises ALWAYS return to the origin of the parabola, which is in the 50′s in this case.
  • MSFT is peaking a large corrective structure that was born out of the '08 low near 15, which is part of the giant corrective structure born at the Dec. '99 peak. This monthly bar chart notes my comments at the University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill), where I gave a week-long seminar on objective decision support modeling. Then, msft was the darling, and trading above 100 (pre-split) for the first time in history. The '09 low tested the "origin of the parabola", but the forecast for a new low in coming years will better fulfill it. As seen at the '07 and '01 highs, this upper 30′s zone is NOT the place to be holding a lot of long msft exposure, nor adding to positions. Rather, this is the place to exit, reduce leverage, and await the herd's coming fulfillment of this long term pattern, likely in the 12 +/-3 zone in the coming 3-5 years. MSFT
  • AMZN is trading wildly, with 10 points swings every 15 minutes, but the upper 300′s are about to be tested, with 385 as the upper 5 sdb and 405 as the upper 6 sdb. Both will have moments to enjoy those extremes, as it's statistically impossible to maintain those stretches for long. Like the internet stocks of '99, the attraction was their lack of earnings, allowing our puny human brains to fantasize at the extremes of delusion. AMZN