Risk and impact
Kate Sayer
May 2014
Traditional approaches
 Identify all the risks you can think of
 Rank them for impact and likelihood
 Multiply the fact...
What are the drawbacks?
 Spurious accuracy – numbers are misleading
 Different levels need different formats –
operation...
A different approach
 Focus on the management of risks
 Work on organisational capability to respond
to unforeseen event...
Operational risks
 Managing day-to-day risks is part of the
normal management job
 Managers describe the actions and pro...
Framework
6
Controls - procedures Risks
Aims and objectives
Planning
Accountability
Training
Systemic
Monitoring
Staff wel...
Strategic risks – for SMT
 Focus on external risks and risks arising from
the strategy
 Cannot easily be assigned to one...
Strategic risk register
 Identify major risks and impact
 Consider responses and how to manage
 Assign responsibility f...
Getting to better impact
Impact = outcomes
resources put in
Increase the
volume or quality
of outcomes and
outputs
Reduce ...
What can we affect?
Which
beneficiaries
we work with
What we do How we do it Who does it How long Outcomes
Elements of cost
Improving outcomes
 At any given point, there
are a range of possible
outcomes
 How can you enhance
the chances of the r...
Improving outcomes
Performance target
Control anger towards children for 6
consecutive months
Outcome
All children live in...
Tracking causal links
Call for an appointment for parenting programme 100
Appear for an assessment and first session 60
At...
Reduce time and effort put in
 Understand what is already good and could be
even better
 Look at contribution made by ac...
Leave it to luck?
Or manage your luck…
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TPP Finance Seminar - Risk Management

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TPP Finance Breakfast Seminar - Risk Management

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TPP Finance Seminar - Risk Management

  1. 1. Risk and impact Kate Sayer May 2014
  2. 2. Traditional approaches  Identify all the risks you can think of  Rank them for impact and likelihood  Multiply the factors to prioritise risks  Present in a risk register  Variations on this?
  3. 3. What are the drawbacks?  Spurious accuracy – numbers are misleading  Different levels need different formats – operational versus high level strategic  Risk registers require you to pinpoint a risk event – this is unrealistic  Creates illusion that you are managing risks by this process
  4. 4. A different approach  Focus on the management of risks  Work on organisational capability to respond to unforeseen events  Differentiate risks  internal, predictable and we can act to prevent the event occurring  external and outside our control or arising from the strategy
  5. 5. Operational risks  Managing day-to-day risks is part of the normal management job  Managers describe the actions and processes in place to manage risk  Then map back to the risks  Identify gaps or overlaps  Assess how effective these actions are  Notes on further actions or changes
  6. 6. Framework 6 Controls - procedures Risks Aims and objectives Planning Accountability Training Systemic Monitoring Staff welfare External review
  7. 7. Strategic risks – for SMT  Focus on external risks and risks arising from the strategy  Cannot easily be assigned to one team  More likely we will have to respond rather than control  Possibility of high impact events  Likelihood difficult to assess – too subjective
  8. 8. Strategic risk register  Identify major risks and impact  Consider responses and how to manage  Assign responsibility for management of risk  Regular reporting and monitoring of risks
  9. 9. Getting to better impact Impact = outcomes resources put in Increase the volume or quality of outcomes and outputs Reduce the level of resources (time and effort) put in
  10. 10. What can we affect? Which beneficiaries we work with What we do How we do it Who does it How long Outcomes Elements of cost
  11. 11. Improving outcomes  At any given point, there are a range of possible outcomes  How can you enhance the chances of the route to better outcomes being chosen?
  12. 12. Improving outcomes Performance target Control anger towards children for 6 consecutive months Outcome All children live in safe, non-violent, nurturing homes Parenting programme Target for individuals on programme Improve parenting skills
  13. 13. Tracking causal links Call for an appointment for parenting programme 100 Appear for an assessment and first session 60 Attend first three and demonstrate new skill 40 Attend all sessions and demonstrate 3 skills 25 Control anger for 3 months 15 Control anger for 6 months 13 No. peopleMilestones
  14. 14. Reduce time and effort put in  Understand what is already good and could be even better  Look at contribution made by activities to outcomes (outputs)  What does not contribute and we could stop doing?
  15. 15. Leave it to luck? Or manage your luck…
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