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Non traditional security (asean)

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Slide บรรยาย เรื่อง ภัยคุกคามรูปแบบใหม่ ให้นักศึกษา ม.ธรรมศาสตร์ โครงการอาเซียนศึกษา หลักสูตรนานาชาติ

Slide บรรยาย เรื่อง ภัยคุกคามรูปแบบใหม่ ให้นักศึกษา ม.ธรรมศาสตร์ โครงการอาเซียนศึกษา หลักสูตรนานาชาติ

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  • 1. Non-Non-Traditional Security : Trends and Issues 1
  • 2. Outline• Th W ld i Ch i The World is Changing• Global Responses to Global Responses to  Global Threats• Country and Regional  Imbalance•CCases and Issues dI 2
  • 3. The World is Changing g g Emerging GlobalizationThe End of Cold War 3
  • 4. 4
  • 5. GlobalizationDefinition• According to the Oxford English Dictionary, the According to the Oxford English Dictionary, the  word "globalization" was first employed in a  publication entitled Towards New Education in  publication entitled Towards New Education in 1952, to denote a holistic view of human  experience in education. i i d ti 5
  • 6. GlobalizationDefinition• An early description of globalization was penned  y p g p by the founder of the Bible Student movement  Charles Taze Russell who coined the term  Charles Taze Russell who coined the term corporate giants in 1897. 6
  • 7. GlobalizationDefinition• Thomas L. Friedman has examined the impact of Thomas L. Friedman has examined the impact of  the "flattening" of the world, and argues that  globalized trade, outsourcing, supply‐chaining,  globalized trade outsourcing supply chaining and political forces have changed the world  permanently, for both better and worse. He also  l f b hb l argues that the pace of globalization is quickening  and will continue to have a growing impact on  business organization and practice. g p 7
  • 8. Globalization Definition • The movement towards the expansion of  p economic and social ties between countries  through the spread of corporate institutions and  through the spread of corporate institutions and the capitalist philosophy that leads to the  shrinking of the world in economic terms. shrinking of the world in economic terms. 8http://www.bized.co.th
  • 9. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Industrial • Competition• Financial • Cultural• Economic • Social• Job Market • Technical• Political • Legal/Ethical• Informational • Religious• Language 9
  • 10. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Industrial – emergence of worldwide production  g g markets and broader access to a range of foreign  products for consumers and companies.  Particularly movement of material and goods  Particularly movement of material and goods between and within national boundaries.  International trade in manufactured goods  International trade in manufactured goods increased more than 100 times (from $95 billion  to $12 trillion) in the 50 years since 1955.  $12 illi ) i h 50 i 1955 10
  • 11. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Financial – emergence of worldwide financial  g markets and better access to external financing for  borrowers. By the early part of the 21st century  more than $1.5 trillion in national currencies were  more than $1 5 trillion in national currencies were traded daily to support the expanded levels of  trade and investment.  trade and investment 11
  • 12. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Economic – realization of a global common  g market, based on the freedom of exchange of  goods and capital.  12
  • 13. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Job Market ‐ competition in a global job market.   p In the past, the economic fate of workers was tied  to the fate of national economies. With the advent  of the information age and improvements in  of the information age and improvements in communication, this is no longer the case.  Because workers compete in a global market,  Because workers compete in a global market wages are less dependent on the success or failure  of individual economies. This has had a major  effect on wages and income distribution.  13
  • 14. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Political – some use "globalization" to mean the  g g creation of a world government which regulates  the relationships among governments and  guarantees the rights arising from social and  guarantees the rights arising from social and economic globalization.  14
  • 15. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Political – the United States has enjoyed a position  p g p p of power among the world powers, in part  because of its strong and wealthy economy. With  the influence of globalization and with the help of  the influence of globalization and with the help of the United States’ own economy. 15
  • 16. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Political – the Peoples Republic of China has  p g experienced some tremendous growth within the  past decade. If China continues to grow at the rate  projected by the trends, then it is very likely that  projected by the trends then it is very likely that in the next twenty years, there will be a major  reallocation of power among the world leaders.  reallocation of power among the world leaders China will have enough wealth, industry, and  technology to rival the United States for the  position of leading world power. 16
  • 17. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Informational – increase in information flows  g g p y between geographically remote locations.  Arguably this is a technological change with the  advent of fiber optic communications, satellites,  advent of fiber optic communications satellites and increased availability of telephone and  Internet. Internet 17
  • 18. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Language – the most spoken first language is  – Mandarin (845 million speakers)  ( p ) – Spanish (329 million speakers)  – English (328 million speakers) English (328 million speakers).  18
  • 19. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Language – However the most popular second  g g y g language is undoubtedly English,  – About 35% of the worlds mail, telexes, and cables are  in English. in English. – Approximately 40% of the worlds radio programs are  in English. in English – English is the dominant language on the Internet. 19
  • 20. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Competition – Survival in the new global business  p p y market calls for improved productivity and  increased competition. Due to the market  becoming worldwide, companies in various  becoming worldwide companies in various industries have to upgrade their products and use  technology skillfully in order to face increased  technology skillfully in order to face increased competition. 20
  • 21. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Ecological – the advent of global environmental  g g challenges that might be solved with international  cooperation, such as climate change, cross‐ boundary water and air pollution, over fishing of  boundary water and air pollution over‐fishing of the ocean, and the spread of invasive species.  Since many factories are built in developing  Since many factories are built in developing countries with less environmental regulation,  globalism and free trade may increase pollution  and impact on precious fresh water resources. 21
  • 22. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Cultural – growth of cross‐cultural contacts;  g advent of new categories of consciousness and  identities which embodies cultural diffusion, the  desire to increase one s standard of living and  desire to increase ones standard of living and enjoy foreign products and ideas, adopt new  technology and practices, and participate in a  technology and practices and participate in a "world culture".  22
  • 23. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Cultural – Spreading of multiculturalism, and  y( g better individual access to cultural diversity (e.g.  through the export of Hollywood  and K‐POP).  Others consider multiculturalism to promote  peace and understanding between people.  23
  • 24. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Cultural – A third position that gained popularity is  the notion that multiculturalism to a new form of  monoculture in which no distinctions exist and  everyone shifts between various lifestyles in terms  everyone shifts between various lifestyles in terms of music, cloth and other aspects once more firmly  attached to a single culture.  attached to a single culture 24
  • 25. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Cultural – A third position that gained popularity is  the notion that multiculturalism to a new form of  monoculture in which no distinctions exist and  everyone shifts between various lifestyles in terms  everyone shifts between various lifestyles in terms of music, cloth and other aspects once more firmly  attached to a single culture.  attached to a single culture 25
  • 26. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Social – development of the system of non‐ g governmental organizations as main agents of  g g global public policy, including humanitarian aid  and developmental efforts. and developmental efforts 26
  • 27. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Technical ‐ Development of a Global Information  y g System, global telecommunications infrastructure  and greater transborder data flow, using such  technologies as the Internet, communication  technologies as the Internet communication satellites, submarine fiber optic cable, and  wireless telephones.  wireless telephones Increase in the number of standards applied  globally; e.g., copyright laws, patents and world  trade agreements. trade agreements. 27
  • 28. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Legal/Ethical ‐ The creation of the international  j criminal court and international justice  movements.  Crime importation and raising awareness of global  crime‐fighting efforts and cooperation.  The emergence of Global administrative law. 28
  • 29. Globalization Effect Globalization Effect• Religious ‐ The spread and increased interrelations  g g p p of various religious groups, ideas, and practices  and their ideas of the meanings and values of  particular spaces. particular spaces 29
  • 30. Globalization could involve all these things! 30http://www.bized.co.th
  • 31. Thomas L F i dTh L. Friedman 31
  • 32. Feasibility: The Shrinking Globe 1500 -1840 1840 1850 - 1930 1950s 1960s Propeller Jet Steam locomotives aircraft passengerBest average speed of average 65 mph. 300 - 400 aircraft,horse drawnhorse-drawn coaches Steamships average mph. S hi 500 - 700and sailing ships, 10 36 mph. mph.mph. 32
  • 33. Globalization 1.0 Globalization 1 0• Start: 1492 (Columbus Discovered America)• End:1800Player: Country 33
  • 34. Globalization 1.0Globalization 1 0 34
  • 35. Globalization 2.0First Half• Falling of Transportation Cost Falling of Transportation Cost• Steam Engine• Rail RoadPlayer: Multinational CompanyPlayer: Multinational Company 35
  • 36. Globalization 2.0 Globalization 2 0Second Half• Falling of Telecommunication Cost Falling of Telecommunication Cost• Telegraph• Telephone• PC• Fiber Optics• WWWPlayer: Multinational CompanyPlayer: Multinational Company 36
  • 37. Globalization 2.0 Globalization 2 0(c) Venkatraman, 2008 37
  • 38. Globalization 3.0 Globalization 3 0• Start: 2000Player: Individual 38
  • 39. Globalization 3 0 Globalization 3.0 ENGINEERING Software ?? ??Social Network Services Tech S T h Support Medical ?? Design ?? Call Centers R&D BPO LEGAL Analytics 39
  • 40. Globalization 1.0 – 3.0 Globalization 1 0 – 3 0Globalization Globalization Globalization  Globalization Globalization  Globalization 1.0 2.0 3.0 Country C Company C Individual I di id l 40
  • 41. 10 Forces That Flattened The World• Berlin Wall Coming Down • Offshoring• Netscape IPO • Supply‐chaining• Work Flow Software W k Fl S ft • Insourcing I i• Uploading • In‐forming g• Outsourcing • The Steroids 41
  • 42. 42
  • 43. Triple Convergence Triple Convergence• The Flatteners • New Habits Skills and Processes New Habits, Skills and Processes• A few billion new players 43
  • 44. Convergence 1  The Flatteners• The flatteners started in about 1990.• They had to spread take root and connect They had to spread, take root and connect.• SW Airlines let people make reservations and  p p print their own boarding passes.• Several firms built machines that would  f print, fax, scan, email, and copy. print, fax, scan, email, and copy. 44
  • 45. Convergence 1 – The Flatteners Convergence 1 – The Flatteners• Complementary goods are each better  because of the other. because of the other• We had a flat, global, web‐enabled playing  field for collaboration, sharing of knowledge  and work without regard to geography,  and work without regard to geography distance, or (soon) language. 45
  • 46. Convergence 2  New Habits, Skills and Processes• New technology and new ways of doing  business• Wal‐Mart’s Big Box stores along with a  supply chain that ensured the stock was on  the shelf. the shelf 46
  • 47. Convergence 2  New Habits, Skills and Processes• HP, Cisco and Nokia collaborated on the  camera phone.  camera phone• All the airlines are now letting you make your  reservations, pick your seats, print your  boarding passes. boarding passes 47
  • 48. Convergence 3  A few billion new players• China, India, Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin  America, and Central Asia brought new  America and Central Asia brought new players to the game.• They did not go to the playing field, the  playing field came to them. playing field came to them 48
  • 49. Convergence 3  A few billion new players• Because many of these new players did not  have legacy systems in place, they could go  have legacy systems in place they could go straight to the latest technology. Many  Chinese skipped over land lines for cell  Chi ki d l d li f ll p phones. South Korea has much greater  g internet usage and broadband penetration. 49
  • 50. • Cli t Change Climate Ch• Competition Over Resources• Marginalization of g the Majority World• Global Militarization 50
  • 51. Climate Change Climate Change• The effects of climate change would lead to  g g increased human suffering, greater social unrest,  revised patterns of living and the pressure of  greatly increased levels of migration across the  greatly increased levels of migration across the world.• This has long‐term security implications for all This has long term security implications for all  countries which are far more serious, lasting and  destructive than those of international terrorism. destructive than those of international terrorism 51
  • 52. Climate Change Climate Change• The Social Impacts of Climate Change• Nuclear is not the Answer Nuclear is not the Answer• Renewable Energy gy 52
  • 53. Competition over Resources Competition over Resources• Industrialized and industrializing states are  increasingly dependent on imported  increasingly dependent on imported resources, especially oil and gas.• Oil is currently the main marketed fossil fuel Oil is currently the main marketed fossil fuel  and the Persian Gulf is the dominant region,  with two‐thirds of world reserves.  53
  • 54. Competition over Resources Competition over Resources• ‘Water politics’ already plays a part in  conflict in some regions of the world,  conflict in some regions of the world particularly the Middle East.• Demand for fresh water is well beyond that Demand for fresh water is well beyond that  which can be sustained at current, much less  future, levels.  54
  • 55. 55
  • 56. Competition over Resources Competition over Resources• The Resource Shift• Oil and US Security Oil and US Security• Water Politics 56
  • 57. Marginalization of the Majority World Marginalization of the Majority World• While overall global wealth has increased,  the benefits of this economic growth have  the benefits of this economic growth have not been equally shared, with a very heavy  concentration of growth in relatively few  i f hi l i l f p parts of the world. 57
  • 58. Marginalization of the Majority World Marginalization of the Majority World• These divisions are being exacerbated by  increasing oppression and political exclusion,  increasing oppression and political exclusion coupled with a growing sense of  marginalization as a result of improvements  i li i l fi in education and modern communication  technologies, leading in places to increased  levels of political violence. levels of political violence 58
  • 59. Marginalization of the Majority World Marginalization of the Majority World• Current security policies and the ‘war on  terror are not reacting appropriately to this terror’ are not reacting appropriately to this  key trend, and are actually causing an  increase in support for radical and violent  i i f di l d i l movements such as the al‐Qaida network. Q• • Policies to control such developments will  need to go beyond traditional methods of  counterterrorism to incorporate a wide  counterterrorism to incorporate a wide range of conflict prevention and resolution  59 th d b t i f th t i l d
  • 60. Marginalization of the Majority World Marginalization of the Majority World• The Security Implications of HIV/AIDS• Socio economic Divisions Socio‐economic Divisions• The ‘War on Terror’ 60
  • 61. Global Militarization Global Militarization• The current focus is on maintaining  international security by the vigorous use of  international security by the vigorous use of military force.• Post‐Cold War nuclear developments involve  the modernization and proliferation of  the modernization and proliferation of nuclear systems, with an increasing risk of  limited nuclear weapons use in warfare – breaking a threshold that has held for 60  breaking a threshold that has held for 60 years. 61
  • 62. Global Militarization Global Militarization• Biological weapons have the potential to  become effective weapons of war, given  become effective weapons of war given likely developments in genetic manipulation  and biotechnology. The negotiation of a  d bi h l h i i f much strengthened Biological and Toxin  g g Weapons Convention should be a priority. 62
  • 63. Global Militarization Global Militarization• Forces in Transition• The 9/11 Attacks and After The 9/11 Attacks and After• Weapons of Mass Destruction p 63
  • 64. Country and Regional Country and Regional Imbalance 64
  • 65. 65Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  • 66. Country and Regional ImbalanceCountry and Regional Imbalance 66
  • 67. Country and Regional ImbalanceCountry and Regional Imbalance 67
  • 68. Perception 68
  • 69. 69
  • 70. Thailand’s NTS Issues 70
  • 71. Political TurmoilCauses of Conflict 71
  • 72. Pareto Analysis 72
  • 73. Clash betweenConservative & Progressive 73
  • 74. 74
  • 75. 75
  • 76. 76
  • 77. Security Sector Governance (SSG) 77
  • 78. Groups of Power in Thailand 78
  • 79. 79
  • 80. Equilibrium State for Thai Society 80
  • 81. Thailand’s Southern Provinces  Insurgency 81
  • 82. Causes of Conflict 82
  • 83. Asymmetric Warfare 83
  • 84. Causes of Conflict 84
  • 85. Conflict and ComplicationConflict and Complication 85
  • 86. 86
  • 87. A Solution in the PastPhase I : Sponsor Block Phase II : Military PushPhase III : Forgive and Forget 87
  • 88. A Concept p “Political L di “P liti l Leadingthe Militth Military Operations” O ti ” 88
  • 89. 89
  • 90. An Ultimate Gold“All Thais are living together in thepeaceful way and Harmonization.” f l dH i ti ” 90
  • 91. A Concept p“Socio-culture L di“S i lt Leadingthe Militth Military Operations” O ti ” 91
  • 92. A Solution FrameworkPhase I : StabilizePhase II : Strike BackPhase III : HarmonizePh H iPhase IV : SustainPh S t i 92
  • 93. A Solution Driven “All Thais are All Thais are  living together in  the peaceful way  Social and  and & Harmonization.” Economic Social & Political • Phase IV Social & Military • Sustain • Phase III • HarmonizeMilitary • Phase II • Strike Back • Phase I • Stabilize 93
  • 94. Insurgency Conclusions g y• Cause of the insurgency is not the religious Cause of the insurgency is not the religious.• The contexts of Thailand’s southern provinces are The contexts of Thailand s southern provinces are  causes of the insurgency. causes of the insurgency.• It takes time to come to an end (more than 10  years).  94
  • 95. Conclusions 95
  • 96. Can AEAN accommodate global risks and opportunities?
  • 97. 97
  • 98. Our Solution 98
  • 99. Last Words Last Words “The world is not dangerous because of t ose who do harm o those o a but because of those who look at it without doing anything.” g y g Albert EinsteinHence, we must cooperate to make the world a betterplace to live in and we will consider it our mission to i i i i i i i assist our country our region and the world. 99
  • 100. 100

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