Non traditional security

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Present at Symposium on South East Asian Security (SSEAS) : Non-Traditional Security Issues (NTS) -13 Sep 2010- Topic Non-Traditional Security : Trends and Issues

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Non traditional security

  1. 1. Non- Non-Traditional Security : Trends and Issues Deputy Director of Strategic Studies and Research Division Strategic Studies Center, National Defence Studies Institute Royal Thai Armed Forces Headquarter Mobile: 09-893-3126, Web Site: http://tortaharn.net teeranan@rtarf.mi.th, teeranan@nandhakwang.info 1
  2. 2. Outline O tli • Facing the New Ch ll F i th N Challenges and I d Issues • Thailand’s Non-Traditional Security Challenges Non- y g • Risk and Impact Analysis • Thailand’s Non-Traditional Security Issues Thailand s Non- • Lessons and Learn • Conclusions 2
  3. 3. 3 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  4. 4. 4 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  5. 5. 5 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  6. 6. 6 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  7. 7. 7 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  8. 8. 8 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  9. 9. 9 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  10. 10. 10 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  11. 11. 11 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  12. 12. 12 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  13. 13. 13 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  14. 14. 14 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
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  20. 20. 20 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
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  25. 25. 25 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  26. 26. 26 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  27. 27. The End of Nation-State? Nation- 27 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  28. 28. 28 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
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  34. 34. Thailand’s NTS Challenges 34
  35. 35. Thailand s NTS Challenges Thailand’s NTS Challenges • Political Turmoil • Insurgency I • Poverty • Drug / Narcotic Threats Drug / Narcotic Threats • Infectious Diseases / Pandemics • Illegal Migration / Human Trafficking • Terrorism 35
  36. 36. Thailand s NTS Challenges (con t) Thailand’s NTS Challenges (con’t) • Energy Security • Food Security F dS it • Disaster • Transnational Crimes  Transnational Crimes • Economy Instability • Environmental Degradation 36
  37. 37. Risk and Impact Analysis 37
  38. 38. Risk and Impact Analysis The Vital  Concern 38
  39. 39. The Vital Concern of  Thailand’s NTS • Political Turmoil • Insurgency ** The Rest Issues will be provided in the  p other session 39
  40. 40. Thailand’s NTS Issues 40
  41. 41. Political Turmoil Causes of Conflict 41
  42. 42. Pareto Analysis 42
  43. 43. Clash between Conservative & Progressive 43
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  47. 47. Security Sector Governance (SSG) 47
  48. 48. Groups of Power in Thailand 48
  49. 49. 49
  50. 50. Equilibrium State for Thai Society 50
  51. 51. Thailand’s Southern Provinces  Insurgency
  52. 52. Causes of Conflict
  53. 53. Asymmetric Warfare 53
  54. 54. Causes of Conflict 54
  55. 55. Conflict and Complication Conflict and Complication 55
  56. 56. 56
  57. 57. A Solution in the Past Phase I : Sponsor Block  Phase II : Military Push Phase III : Forgive and Forget 57
  58. 58. A Concept p “Political L di “P liti l Leading the Milit th Military Operations” O ti ” 58
  59. 59. 59
  60. 60. An Ultimate Gold “All Thais are living together in the peaceful way and Harmonization.” f l dH i ti ” 60
  61. 61. A Concept p “Socioculture Leading “S i lt L di the Milit th Military Operations” O ti ” 61
  62. 62. A Solution Framework Phase I : Stabilize Phase II : Strike Back Phase III : Harmonize Ph H i Phase IV : Sustain Ph S t i 62
  63. 63. A Solution Driven “All Thais are All Thais are  living together in  the peaceful way  Social and  and & Harmonization.” Economic Social & Political • Phase IV Social & Military • Sustain • Phase III • Harmonize Military • Phase II • Strike Back • Phase I • Stabilize 63
  64. 64. Insurgency Conclusions g y • Cause of the insurgency is not the religious Cause of the insurgency is not the religious. • The contexts of Thailand’s southern provinces are The contexts of Thailand s southern provinces are  causes of the insurgency. causes of the insurgency. • It takes time to come to an end (more than 10  years).  64
  65. 65. Conclusions 65
  66. 66. 66 Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape
  67. 67. Last Words Last Words “The world is not dangerous because of t ose who do harm o those o a but because of those who look at it without doing anything.” g y g Albert Einstein Hence, we must cooperate to make the world a better place to live in and we will consider it our i i i i i mission to assist our country and the world. 67
  68. 68. teeranan@rtarf.mi.th teeranan@nandhakwang.info t @ dh k i f http://tortaharn.net 668 9893 3126 668-9893-3126 68

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