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Wouldn't it be cool if you could test your next great business venture in a virtual sandbox before you spent a lot of money to prove the concept in the real world? We provide exactly this--a framework …

Wouldn't it be cool if you could test your next great business venture in a virtual sandbox before you spent a lot of money to prove the concept in the real world? We provide exactly this--a framework with which you can link every business logic to their financial impacts.

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- 1. s conomic
- 2. What if you could
- 3. What if you could the FUTURE of your business?
- 4. If you could
- 5. theVALUE of ...
- 6. ... the ACQUSITION you are planning ...
- 7. theVALUE of ...
- 8. ... entering a newMARKET...
- 9. theVALUE of ...
- 10. ... yourHEDGING PROGRAM ...
- 11. theVALUE of ...
- 12. ... building a newPRODUCTION SITE ...
- 13. theVALUE of ...
- 14. ... alternativeproduct PORTFOLIOS ...
- 15. ... alternativeR&D PORTFOLIOS ...
- 16. ... alternativereal estatePORTFOLIOS ...
- 17. theVALUE of ...
- 18. ... LEVERAGING your ﬁrm ...
- 19. theVALUE of ...
- 20. ... an entirely new BUSINESSwww.businessmodelgeneration.com MODEL
- 21. For this you need just 3 THINGS
- 22. 1
- 23. A PLANNINGthat doesn’t start with ...
- 24. theNUMBERS
- 25. but with theBUSINESS LOGIC behind them
- 26. With such a DRIVER-BASED PLANNING ...
- 27. Income Statement Cash Flow... every financial figure... Balance Sheet
- 28. Income Statement Cash Flow... results from the logic of your Balance Sheet business model.
- 29. And every single part of the model...
- 30. l the del ike mos a les
- 31. he of r t ng o lim ode lies su pp
- 32. ... delivers a consistent set of financial statements.
- 33. You can think of this conc ept...
- 34. PORT...... as having a standardized
- 35. ... with which you can link
- 36. ... with which you can linkany BUSINESS to the LOGIC FINANCIALS
- 37. With such a DRIVER-BASED PLANNING ...
- 38. ... you can see the CONSEQUENCES of your DECISIONS
- 39. before you take action in the REAL WORLD http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:04KJER0243.jpg
- 40. 2
- 41. A PLANNINGthat doesn’t rely on ...
- 42. SINGLE- POINT ESTIMATES
- 43. SINGLE- POINT ESTIMATESrather than on the FULL RANGE of possible outcomes
- 44. Becausein the REAL WORLD...
- 45. ... the future is NOROADSTRAIGHT ...
- 46. ... instead it’s full of UNCERTAINTY and RISK
- 47. Therefore, the INPUTS of your planning model ...
- 48. ... must not only contain the things you know with certainty ...
- 49. la st ikearsl e y es f ig ur
- 50. ... but also those things you dont know exactly ...
- 51. the ent likelopm e arket pridev m ces of
- 52. r the for o nddema ur products yo in the f uture
- 53. Even for those things you dont know exactly, you can always define a range of possible values.
- 54. So, the OUTPUT of the planning model ...
- 55. ... shouldn’t look like THAT
- 56. ... and NOT ONLY like TH AT
- 57. ... and NOT ONLY like TH AT i.e. ju expec st value ted s
- 58. Instead, you should see MUCH MORE ...
- 59. Instead, you should see Probability bands showing the possible MUCH MORE ... range of future development
- 60. Instead,Probabilityshould see the you density charts showing MUCH MORE ... relative likelihood of possible values
- 61. Instead, you should functions showing Cumulated probability see MUCH MORE ... how likely a certain outcome is
- 62. All these statistical views, along with others, are not only available for certain "key values"...
- 63. ... but for every single item within the model.
- 64. ... but for every singel item within the model.
- 65. ... but for every single item within the model.
- 66. ... but for every single item within the model.
- 67. With such an EXPLICIT RISK ANALYSIS you can see how likely it is ...
- 68. ... to achieve a desired result, ... ance % ch less 40 to earn 5m tha n €2
- 69. ... to have enough headroom given your funding sources ... ntial bsta o su o g risk t upt bankr ear y he r next t e aft
- 70. ... or whatever else you are interested in
- 71. Because the ACTUAL INFORMATIONis in the MARGIN ...
- 72. ... and not in the average www.flawofaverages.com
- 73. ... and not in the average Like with the statistican who drowned crossing a river that was 3 ft. deep—on average. www.flawofaverages.com
- 74. 3
- 75. A VALUATIONthat doesn’t play with ...
- 76. ... the DISCOUNT RATE ...
- 77. ... to account for RISK ...
- 78. ... rather than harnesses the INFORMATION RISK about we already have
- 79. From our risk analysis, we not only know ...
- 80. oba pr of blethe nce aria g. thev . e me Ne t I nco
- 81. or the low e C as h FFre
- 82. ... but every single scenario produced by the Monte Carlo simulation.
- 83. Assuming we put every substantial risk carefully into our model ...
- 84. s is hingthi eryt ev bly oba .t pr hat appen ca n h
- 85. s is hing thi eryt ev bly oba . t pr hat appen na OK,cot nexhtl ac y these few samples, but runnin g somethousand simulationyou get pr s etty close ...
- 86. Having captured all risk within the cash flows, there is no need to ...
- 87. NPV ... use a % +% risk premiumto calculate net present value.
- 88. NPV ... use a % +% risk premiumto calculate net present value.
- 89. we canIn ste ad, us e as im ply ra te. k-f ree ris%
- 90. % Discounting every scenario with the risk-free rateleads to a distribution of NPV.
- 91. ? hats the B ut w % val ue airhaeveryioscenario f ftDiscounting t t n o st ribu with thedirisk-free rategives us a distribution of NPV.
- 92. With an OPTION-BASED VALUATION , we can turn this distribution into a single VALUE
- 93. So, mean?what does this
- 94. Nothing less than:
- 95. We canEVALUATE ...
- 96. We canEVALUATE
- 97. s conomic

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