SustainableLifestyles2050D4.1FutureScenariosforNewEuropeanSocialModelswithVisualisations20152020203020402050ScenariosforSu...
2|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050AboutSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050ReportPrincipalAuthors:JuhaLeppänen(DemosHelsinki),Al...
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|3WhatisSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050SPREADSustaina...
4|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Unsustainablelifestyleimpactstobeovercomeby2050:Keyfindingsoftheproject’sbaselineresearchT...
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|5“promisingpractices”ofmoresustainablelivingpractice...
6|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050OurscenariosonsustainablelifestylesTheSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050pro-jectusesascenari...
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|7ThebackcastingmethodInordertoestablishfoursustainab...
8|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Thesustainablelifestyle=8000kgperannumInordertocreatescenariosforsustainablelife-stylesin...
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|9Earth-systemprocessCurrentvalueBoundaryvalueClimate...
10|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Fourscenarios,twocriticaluncertaintiesPandemictechnologyGloballythereareafewdominanttech...
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|11SingularSuperChampionsLocalLoopsGoverningtheCommon...
12|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Thedevelopmentoffuturescenariosformoresustainablelifestylesin2050buildsonallprevi-ouswor...
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|1354participantsfrom16countries,representingstakehol...
14|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Fourscenariostosustainablelifestyles2012–2050
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|15SingularSuperChampions
16|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050SingularSuperChampionsAnageingEuropereceivesatransformativeandrejuvenatingspark,inordert...
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18|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050TheEuropeanGreenNewDealTransparencygetsthepricesrightTheupcyclingeconomyLearning,notearn...
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20|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050TheEuropeanGreenNewDealTransparencygetsthepricesrightTheupcyclingeconomyLearning,notearn...
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22|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050TheEuropeanGreenNewDealTransparencygetsthepricesrightTheupcyclingeconomyLearning,notearn...
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|232050:Over2/3ofthepopulationinEuropeancountriesspen...
Mobility(dailyandtourism)11000kgHousing:building2400kgProductconsumption2600kgLeisuretime1500kgFood7300kgHousing:electrici...
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|25CriticalchallengesandsolutionsinthescenarioSingula...
26|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050GoverningtheCommonsYoucanmanufactureproductsbasedonyourveryowndesignatthenearestcornersh...
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|27Howaresustainablelifestylesachieved?Thetransitiont...
28|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050The3rdindustrialrevolutionUbitecheconomyBetterworkcreateswell-beingWikidemocracy2014:Soc...
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30|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050The3rdindustrialrevolutionUbitecheconomyWikidemocracy2027:Acarsharingcompanythatusesan“a...
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32|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050The3rdindustrialrevolutionUbitecheconomyBetterworkcreateswell-beingWikidemocracy2044:Cit...
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34|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Mobility(dailyandtourism)11000kgHousing:building2400kgProductconsumption2600kgLeisuretim...
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|35LocalLoopsCriticalchallengesandsolutionsinthescena...
36|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050LocalLoopsThedramaticriseofresourcepricesandthescar-cityofoilfinallyarrivesinlate2010s,th...
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
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  • There are some good ideas in this material. We do need to be good stewards of the planet that God has given us, and we're not doing a good job of that. However, the sad thing is that much of this Agenda21 material is built off of a the loathing of the wealthy and elite towards the non-producers coupled with the false assumptions of the extreme environmentalist that fantasize at the alter of the church of anthropogenic climate change, chanting 'forgive them mother earth for they know not what their SUVs do.'
    Now even the low information populous is finally coming around to the fact that there is climate change, that it occurs naturally now as it always has, with no anthropogenic assistance.
    Revelation 11:18 says that God will 'destroy them which destroy the earth.'
    So you would be better off leaving the climate change nonsense and instead preaching the bible.
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Transcript of "Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050"

  1. 1. SustainableLifestyles2050D4.1FutureScenariosforNewEuropeanSocialModelswithVisualisations20152020203020402050ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops
  2. 2. 2|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050AboutSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050ReportPrincipalAuthors:JuhaLeppänen(DemosHelsinki),AleksiNeuvonen(DemosHelsinki),MariaRitola(DemosHelsinki),InkaAhola(DemosHelsinki),SiniHirvonen(DemosHelsinki),MikaHyötyläinen(DemosHelsinki),TuuliKaskinen(DemosHelsinki),TommiKauppinen(DemosHelsinki),OutiKuittinen(DemosHelsinki),KaisaKärki(DemosHelsinki),MichaelLettenmeier(DemosHelsinki/D-mat),RoopeMokka(DemosHelsinki)WithinputsfromtheprojectconsortiumandprojectadvisorsReportVisualisation:FrancoisJegou(StrategicDesignScenarios/Politec-nicodiMilano),AdèleSeyrig(StrategicDesignScenarios),MartaCorubolo(PolitecnicodiMilano),AnnaMeroni(PolitecnicodiMilano),ChristopheGouache(StrategicDesignScenarios)ReportLayout:KirmoKivelä(DemosHelsinki)ProjectCoordinator:UNEP/WuppertalInstituteCollaboratingCentreonSustainableConsumptionandProduction(CSCP)HagenauerStraße30.42107Wuppertal.GermanyTel+49.202.45958-17Fax+49.202.45958-30www.scp-centre.orgCherylHicks,ProjectDirector:cheryl.hicks@scp-centre.orgNoraBrüggemann,ProjectManager:nora.brueggemann@scp-centre.orgProjectConsortium:Ashoka,BelgiumandFranceDemosHelsinki(Demos),FinlandEcoinstitutBarcelona(ECOI),SpainEnergyresearchCentreoftheNetherlands(ECN)EuroHealthNetPolitecnicodiMilano(Polimi),ItalyRegionalEnvironmentalCenterforCEEcountries(REC),HungaryTheInternationalInstituteforIndustrialEnvironmentalEconomicsatLundUniversity(ULUND),SwedenTheNorthernAllianceforSustainability(ANPED),BelgiumECDeskOfficer:PerlaSrour-Gandon,DomenicoRossettidiValdalberoDuration:1January2011to31December2012Fundingscheme:EuropeanCommission’sSeventhFrameworkProgramme(CoordinationandSupportAction):Socio-economicSciencesandHumanitiesBudget:EUcontribution1,423,082Website:www.sustainable-lifestyles.euOnlinecommunity:www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/communitySustainableLifestyles2050ProjectCoordinatorFundingSchemeProjectConsortiumContentsWhatisSPREADSustainableLifestyles20503Unsustainablelifestyleimpactstobeovercomeby2050:Keyfindingsoftheproject’sbaselineresearch4Ourscenariosonsustainablelifestyles6Thebackcastingmethod7Thesustainablelifestyle=8000kgperannum8Fourscenarios,twocriticaluncertainties10Howdidwegethere?12Fourscenariostosustainablelifestyles2012–2050SingularSuperChampions15GoverningtheCommons25LocalLoops35EmpatheticCommunities45ComparingfouralternativescenariosonsustainablelifestylesMatrixonlifestyledifferencesinthefourscenarios56HowdidtheSPREADscenariosreachlifestylesof8000kgmaterialfootprint?58AppendixA:SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050DelphisurveyQuestionnaires60AppendixB:SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050CountingBackwardsWorkshop62References63
  3. 3. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|3WhatisSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050isaEuro-peansocialplatformprojectrunningfromJanu-ary2011toDecember2012.Differentsocietalstakeholders–frombusiness,research,policyandcivilsociety–havebeeninvitedtopartici-pateinthedevelopmentofavisionforsustain-ablelifestylesin2050.Thisprocesswillresultinaroadmapforstrategicactionthatwillidentifyopportunityspacesforpolicy,business,re-searchandcivilsocietytotakeactiontoenablemoresustainablelifestylesacrossEurope.Howtospreadsustainablelifestyles?BasedonGeels2002LandscapelevelRegimelevelNichelevelPromisingpracticePromisingpracticeSocietalvalues,overallparadigms,megatrendsEmbeddingMultiplyingUpscalingMarkets,Science,PoliciesMarkets,Science,PoliciesMarkets,Science,PoliciesHowdoesitwork?CommentsCommentsConsumingConsuming•collectivekitchensopentofood-groupmembersarediffusedallaroundthecity.Foodfacilitiesareinfactservicesthatallowpeopletosavetimeinpreparingfoodwhileincreasingthequalityoffoodprepared;•everyfoodfacilitygathersafoodgroupthatagreesonaweeklyfoodscheme:eachmemberisinchargeofpreparingaspecificcourseofameal,andcooksitforallthemembers.Inreturnhe/shereceivestheportionsoftheothercoursespreparedbytheothermembers.“...tortillasaretheonlyfoodI’mreallyquitegoodatand,luckily,theyarequiteversatile.TodayIhavepreparedstewedvegetablesasfillingand…voilà..aperfectdish!..Philippreparedthesalad,andMariathedessert.AfulldinnerisfinallyreadyformeandmylittleJody:Ijustneedtopickitupfromthefoodfacilityandlaythetable.”Eduardo,41,designer,singleparentwithadaughterFOODFACILITYHowdoesitwork?•themixoffoodproductionhaschanged:domesticproduction,condominiumurbanfarmingareas,neighborhood,peri-urbanandnationalproductionandsomeinternationalimportation•itiscalledurbanfooddistrictplanning.Thecityisnowdividedintofooddistrictsthatmustbeasself-sufficientaspossible.Eachfooddistrictreliesforacertainquotaonselfproductionoffoodandfortherestonlocalfarmsandproducers.•urbanneighborhoodsaretwinnedwithperi-urbanfarmsandfood-hubssothatfoodproductionandconsumptionarerelated,mutualcommitmentandmutualresponsibility.•awellconnectedfoodsupplychainisnecessary,whichcanhelpconsumersgettheclosestresourcesandswitchwithacertainflexibility;“…wehavethechancetoliveinacitywherethemunicipalityhasdecidedtointroducethefooddistrictplanninginitiative.Ourfoodmixmustbeatleastnearly50%locallyproducedand10%self-producedamongneighbours:garlicisgrowingonthebalcony,cucumbersdownstairs,tomatoescomefromneighbours’vegetablegardens,commutersbringfreshdairyproductsfromsuburbanareasintodowntown.Istillgotolocalsupermarkets,onceinawhileImaybuysomeimportedfood…”Martha,36,motherofa3childrenfamilyURBANFOODDISTRICTPLANNINGCommentsCommentsLivingLivingHowdoesitwork?•sustainableactiveeducationgoesthroughthenormaleducationcircle,activitybasedlearningprojectshavebecomepartoftheformaleducationmethod;••farmingclassesandotherbasicknowledgearoundsustainablefoodaremandatoryateveryeducationleveltoprepareawarecitizensabletotakepartactivelyinco-productionofthefoodtheywilleat;•theclassroomisnolongertheonlyplacetolearn.Schoolcampusesaredevelopedwithfarming,foodtransformationandpreparationfacilities;•schoolcanteensaresuppliedwithvegetablescultivatedinthegarden.Ivan,15-year-old,middleschoolstudent“…InourschoolthereisavegetablegardenwhereI’vebeenattendingfarmingclasssinceprimaryschool,andI’vealwaysdoneverywell.Iknowlotsoflocalcropsandfarmingknowledge.Theteachersteachushowtoplantandharvest,wehaveregularfarmingworkinthevegetablegarden,andourgenerationfeelsthereforeperfectlycomfortablewithtakingpartinurbanfarmingtoproduceonthespotpartofthefruitsandveggiesweconsume...”ACTIVEFARMINGCLASSESHowdoesitwork?•jobsaredesignedasfaraspossibletoallowremoteworkingandreducecommutingincities;•neighbourhoodsareequippedwithdifferenttypesofdistantworkingfacilities;•socializationisamixoflocalandremoteconnectionswithdistantworkingpartnersandneighboursemployedbydifferentcompanies;•whereyouworkismoreandmoreperceivedascompletelydetachedfromwhoyouworkfor;•peopleenjoychangingsocial/physicalenvironmentsespeciallyforboringtasks.“...whereamIgoingtoworktoday?It’saquestionIaskmyselfnearlyeverymorning:wehaveplentyofco-workingoptionsatawalkingdistanceinthearea.Iusedtogotosomeofthework-caféswhenIstartedmyfirstjob:amessyenvironment,lotsofpeopletomeet!NowIprefertocycletoltheparktochangeatmosphereorstayonthefirstfloorofthecondominiumwheremyoldmumlives2blocksaway...”WangYong,24,agentinacallcenterREMOTECO-WORKINGSPACESHowdoesitwork?CommentsCommentsSocietySocietyHowdoesitwork?•goingtopublic/privatehospitalisgettingmoreandmoreexpensiveandalsocarriestheriskofcontractingdiseaseswhenstayinginhospital;•fornon-emergencies,homehospitalisthenorm:stayingathomeandsupportedbyaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,rentedself-medicationappliancesandneighborhoodsocialcarenetworks;•healthcareprovidersprovideongoingmedicalsupportathomeandremotetreatmentwithappropriatetechnology;•‘eHealth’helpstoincreasepublicmedicalknowledgeandparticipationintreatmentalsoreducinghealthcosts;•especiallychronicpatientsandelderlypeoplecanstayathomeforlonger.“...goingtohospitalnowadaysmostlymeansstayingathome!ButathomeIcanmeetthedoctoronlineandgetthesupportoftheneighborhoodsocialcarenetwork..Icanbesupportedalsobyaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,self-medicationappliancestemporarilyrentedfromthelocalhealthcarecenter,andgetadvicefromformerpatientsfromtheneighborhood...”Gianna,68-year-old,suburbaninhabitant,retiredHOMEHOSPITAL•hugecostsinducedbybadsustainablemanagementandcatastropherelatedincreasesinducepeopletopaymoreandmoreattentiontowhatisdonewiththeirmoney;•aftermanyfinancialcrisesduetolackofinvestmentregulations,transparencyisthenormthatalsobenefitssustainableprojects;•sustainableresponsibility,ethicalwealthandfairbankingcriteriaisthenormonthefinancialmarket;investmentsaremadeonlyforsustainableproposals.“…taxesonpersonalincomeroselikemadtocoverdroughtshereandtsunamisthereandcatastrophesaftersillyurbanizationprojectsinmega-cities:nowIprefertoearnless,withgreenandfairinvestmentsbutIwanttoknowwhatmymoneyisusedforandIwanttobeabletojudgemyselfiftheprojectsfinancedwillbegoodornotforthefutureofmykids…”Andrea,37-year-old,fatherofthe3childrenfamilyCLEANMONEYHowdoesitwork?CommentsCommentsMovingMovingHowdoesitwork?•urbanplanningtowardslesscaraccessibleneighborhoods,mixedlivingandcommercialzonesenablingmorewalkingandcycling;•developmentofrentingschemesfordifferentsizedtrolleysforthetransportationofgoodsbypedestrians,fromsimpleweeklyshoppingtosecondhandfurnitureexchangeormovinghomeatwalkingdistance;•parkingstations,wheretrolleyscanberentedfortransportandreturned,areavailableinallsuperblocksinthecity.“…normallygetourweeklyveggieboxdeliveredtoourhome,Ijusttakealittletrolleyfromthecornerstationandtakeitbacktothestationjustbelowthehouse;buttoday,givenalltheshoppingfortheparty,weneedatleastacargo-trolley,thesameasweusedtomovegrandmafromherformerflattotheroomnearwherewelivenow…”Tanja,29,singlemotheroftwochildrenURBANMOBILITYOFGOODS•densificationofcitiesandnewurbanizationmodelslimitmegacitiesandurbansprawl;•promotionofmediumsizedenseurbanenvironmentswithdensepublictransportsystemsinfrastructureinsidethecityandhigh-speedtrainconnectionsbetweencities;•urbanplanningstandardsbasedonsuccessionofhighdensitylodgingandzerodensitygreen/leisureareas;•newarchitecturemovementsfollowingideaslike‘downtownintheforest’or‘thehigh-rise/urbanagriculturemix’...•changingtherelationshipbetweenparksandgreenareaswithinurbanplanningasapatternmadeofhigh-riseblocksandforestsblocks.“…Iamlivinginahigh-risevillageintheforest:itlooksabitlikeyou’vetakensomeblocksofManhattanandsettledthemdeepintheforestinCornwall.AtthebeginningIdidintobelievethatthis‘zerodensity’breathingzonesplanningwouldberespected.NowIhavetheofferofarealcityintermsofworkopportunitiesandculturallifeatawalkingdistanceandsurroundedbyrealwoodsorwheatfields.AndItakethespeedtrainifreallyIhavetogotothenexthigh-risevillage...”Misaku,31,physicianHIGH-RISEVILLAGESHowdoesitwork?CommentsCommentsSocietySocietyHowdoesitwork?•goingtopublic/privatehospitalisgettingmoreandmoreexpensiveandalsocarriestheriskofcontractingdiseaseswhenstayinginhospital;•fornon-emergencies,homehospitalisthenorm:stayingathomeandsupportedbyaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,rentedself-medicationappliancesandneighborhoodsocialcarenetworks;•healthcareprovidersprovideongoingmedicalsupportathomeandremotetreatmentwithappropriatetechnology;•‘eHealth’helpstoincreasepublicmedicalknowledgeandparticipationintreatmentalsoreducinghealthcosts;•especiallychronicpatientsandelderlypeoplecanstayathomeforlonger.“...goingtohospitalnowadaysmostlymeansstayingathome!ButathomeIcanmeetthedoctoronlineandgetthesupportoftheneighborhoodsocialcarenetwork..Icanbesupportedalsobyaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,self-medicationappliancestemporarilyrentedfromthelocalhealthcarecenter,andgetadvicefromformerpatientsfromtheneighborhood...”Gianna,68-year-old,suburbaninhabitant,retiredHOMEHOSPITAL•hugecostsinducedbybadsustainablemanagementandcatastropherelatedincreasesinducepeopletopaymoreandmoreattentiontowhatisdonewiththeirmoney;•aftermanyfinancialcrisesduetolackofinvestmentregulations,transparencyisthenormthatalsobenefitssustainableprojects;•sustainableresponsibility,ethicalwealthandfairbankingcriteriaisthenormonthefinancialmarket;investmentsaremadeonlyforsustainableproposals.“…taxesonpersonalincomeroselikemadtocoverdroughtshereandtsunamisthereandcatastrophesaftersillyurbanizationprojectsinmega-cities:nowIprefertoearnless,withgreenandfairinvestmentsbutIwanttoknowwhatmymoneyisusedforandIwanttobeabletojudgemyselfiftheprojectsfinancedwillbegoodornotforthefutureofmykids…”Andrea,37-year-old,fatherofthe3childrenfamilyCLEANMONEYHowdoesitwork?Howdoesitwork?CommentsCommentsConsumingConsuming•meatonceaweekinavegetariandietisthenorm;•theweeklymeatfeast,Sundayisthecelebrationdayformeat,feastsareorganizedathome;•meatisgettingmoreexpensive,soitisactuallyapleasureandluxurythatcanbeaffordedonlyonceaweek;•alow-animalproteindiethasbeenpromotedbybothgovernmentsandsocialcommunitiesduetofoodcrisis,economicreasonsandnecessaryshifttomoresustainablefoodconsumption.“…allthefamilygatherstogetheringrandma’shouseonSundaymorning,tocelebratethemeatfeast.GrandmacookssometraditionalmeatdishesthatIdon’teatsooften...Usuallyathomewedonoteatmeatandatschoolwehaveagreen-vegetablecanteen...Itisgoodtoenjoysomemeatonceinawhile.I’lltrynottoeattoomuchtoday...”Lily,10yearold,primaryschoolgirl,describingSundaymeatfeastatgrandma’splaceTHEMEATFEAST•theWisePersonalFoodShoppersystemcananalyzeuser’sgeneticdataandfitahealthydiettohis/herfoodchoices;•thesystemcanbeaccessedfromanyportabledeviceineveryfoodretailplaceandrestaurant;•thedevicedisplayspropertiesoffoodtheuserwouldliketoeatorpurchase;includesitinthedietbalance;showsquantityneeded/allowed;•ithelpstomakesmartandrightpurchasechoices,toraiseindividualawarenessofresponsiblediet,consumelesshigh-caloriefood,morelocalfood,organicfood…andenhancesustainablelifestyles…“...IhavejustrecoveredfromsurgeryandwiththemixofdrugsforaftertreatmentIcanonlyeatcertainkindsoffood...ThehospitalleasemeaWisePersonalFoodShoppersettomyexactdietandit’sareliefwhendoingmyshopping.Ifeelsafeforobservingmydietandwithcombinedrecipessuggested,cookinglessonsandinformationonfoodoriginsit’salsomucheasiertoachieveasustainablediet.IthinkIwilluseitalsoaftertheendofthetherapyasaguideinmydailylife…”Elisa,58-year-old,citizenW.P.F.S.WISEPERSONALFOODSHOPPERHowdoesitwork?CommentsCommentsLivingLiving•sustainabilityeducationisembeddedindailylivingintheformofactiveeducation,projectbasedlearning...;•friendlyperiodsspentincontactwiththerealworldformthebasisof‘learningforlife’education;•‘learningforlife’,meaningacquiringbasicknowledgeonnaturalcycles,bio-diversity,regenerationprocesses,self-production...takesplaceonthefield,incontactwithcommunities,families,professionals...;•manypublicandprivateinstitutionsdealingwithsustainableissuesprovidebasiceducationontopoftheirmainactivities.“...Thecurriculumforsustainableeducationinourschoolisbasedon25micro-internshipsperyearconsistingindayorhalf-daytripstoorganicfarms,re-designandrecyclingcompanies,newtraditionalcraftsmanworkshops,wildlifeprotectionprojects,humanitarianprograms...wherewegetintouchandlearnthebasicsaboutgrowingfood,providinggoodsandservice,self-production,naturepreservation…”Jenny,9yearold,primaryschoolpupilSUSTAINABLECOMPANIONSHIPHowdoesitwork?•strivingtosteergeneralbehaviourtowardssustainablelifestylesconstitutesadiffuseddynamiccontextprovidinglearningopportunitiesatanymomentindailyliving;•thesystemworksbyrewardinggoodbehaviour•pervasiveITinproductsandaugmentedenvironmentsprovidesfeedbacktostimulatesustainableliving,whichplaysasateachingenvironmentthatchangesaccordingtoageandsituation;•distancelearning,usingmoretraditionalformsofeducation,enablesstillopenquestionstobeansweredandintegratesalltheknowledgeinthestudentportfolio;•thislearningprocessstartswithprimaryeducationandgoesonforlife.“...kidsnolongerrelyonlyonschoolsfortheireducation:thelayerofITembeddedinourdailylifeisprovidingaveryresponsiveanddiffuseddidacticenvironmentforthemandsustainabilityissuesarepresenteverywhereintheday-to-dayenvironment,fromtheenergysmartmeterdisplayathometothewaterharvestingcontrolsystemintheneighborhood,fromtheintermodalmobilityorganizertothedistributedairqualitycontrolscheme...Everythingworksforthemjustlikeareward-basedgametoplay.”Arold,44yearsold,primaryschoolcoachLIFE-LONGSUSTAINABILITYLEARNINGHowdoesitwork?CommentsMoving•automaticcarswithoutdriver;•dedicatedonlineandmobileapplicationforfullypersonalizedpath;•market-basedservice:partnershipbetweentelecommunicationscompanies,privatetaxisandlocaltransportcompanies“..IlovemyworkandIlovetohaveandgiveallthebestIcan.I’musedtoreachingclientsandIlovetobeefficientandtospendwithcustomersallthetimeneededtogetintuneandinordertoestablishapleasantrelationship.That’swhyIusuallymovearoundthecitybytheLuxurytaxiservice,itisbrilliant!Myproviderofferstheserviceincludedinthebusinessmobileaccount:automaticsupercarswithoutdriversbringyoueverywhereaccordingtopersonalizedpathsthatyoucanplanandredefinealongtheway…”Cinthia,45,prêtaporterstylistLUXURYTAXISERVICECommentsHowdoesitwork?Moving•multi-sitspedal-poweredschoolbusandtransportserviceswithdifferentseatsandratesfortheneighborhood;•cleanenergyproductionfortransportation;•eco-mindedschoolbusandeducationalaspectoftheservice(strengtheningawareness).“…IhurtmyselfplayingandIhavemyleginplaster.Everymorning,whenIgotoschoolwithmyschool-matestheyridethepedalvehicleasusualproducingalotofenergy,whileI’msittingintheseatswithoutpedalsnearMissMarple,theoldneighbourwiththatstrangesmell…I’mlookingforwardtogoingriding!...”Fabio,5yearsold,disabledchildMULTI-SITSPEDALVEHICLESHowdoesitwork?Howdoesitwork?CommentsCommentsSocietySociety•findhelpfromthosearoundyou:whoiswhereandavailabletodowhat;•localboundsarestrengthenedbymeansofcommunicationtools,intelligentsensorsandgeo-localizationdevices;•activateinstantsupportandclosehelpincaseofneed;•districtpersonalnetworksareestablished.“Imovedyesterday,everythingseemsfreshtome,sadlyagain,mydesklampwasbrokenthismorning,Ishouldchangethelightbulbimmediately,comeon,Istillhavecommitmentstofulfillbeforetomorrow.WherecanIbuyabulbnearby?IjoinedthecommunitynetworkwhenImovedhere.MaybeIcanaskforhelpthere…”Li,25SELFEMPOWERMENTCIRCLES•personalisationofmedicinesisnowadaysastandardpractice;•everybodyhasapersonalID_DNAcardthatcontains:theirgeneticmapandbiologicaldata,butalsotheirdailydiet,theirhabits,theirsportingaptitudeandthehistoryoftheirfamily;•everydoctororspecialisthasaccesstoitinordertogetacompleteoverviewofthepatient’life;•thecardenablesfullpersonalisationofmedicinesandhealingsolutions,combiningpharmaceuticalandsocialremedies.“...MymumsaysthatwhenIwasborn,justbeforegoinghomefromthehospital,shereceivedmypersonalID_DNAcard.ItisaveryspecialIdcard:itcontainsallthehistoryofmyfamilyanditwillcontainalsomyhistory.SowhenIwillneedsomemedicines,thedoctorswillalreadyknoweverythingandtheywillbuildaspecialtherapyjustforme...”Paolo,9,primaryschoolstudentID-DNACARDPromisingpracticeInrecentyears,wehavewitnessedtheemer-genceofmoresustainableproducts,servicesandexperimentalbottom-upinitiatives.Theyhavesignalednewhopethatmoresustainablewaysoflivingareachievableforall,whilecel-ebratingdiversity,inpost-industrialsocieties.Despitethesedevelopments,existingpromisingsustainablelivingpracticesarenotenough.TheyremaindwarfedbytheunsustainableimpactsoftheaverageEuropean’scurrentlifestyles.Toovercomethecurrentchallengesofourun-sustainablelifestyles,theSPREADprojecthasdevelopedfuturescenariosofpossiblesocietiesthatsupportmoresustainablewaysofliving.
  4. 4. 4|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Unsustainablelifestyleimpactstobeovercomeby2050:Keyfindingsoftheproject’sbaselineresearchTheSPREADproject’sjourneytofuturesce-nariosformoresustainablelifestylesbeganbytakingstockofexistingknowledgeonsustain-ablelifestyles.Throughthisinitialresearchweidentifiedthechallengesandbarrierstomoresustainablelivingtoday,aswellaspromisingtrends,driversandopportunitiestoencouragemoresustainablewaysoflivinginthefuture.Theresultsofthisbaselineresearchcanbefoundinourprojectreport,“SustainableLife-styles:Today’sFactsandTomorrow’sTrends”.ModernEuropeanlifestylesareunsustainable.Theyhavebecomeassociatedwithoverproduc-tionandoverconsumption.Theimpactsofourlifestylesareputtingtoomuchpressureonournaturalresourcesandhaveadverseenvironmen-tal,economic,socialandhealtheffects.Thereportrevealsthatlifestyleandhouseholdconsumptionformasignificantpartofsociety’senvironmentalburdenasawhole.Inrecentyears,sustainablelifestylechoiceshavestartedtobecomeamorerelevantandaccessibleop-tionforsomeEuropeanconsumersthankstoariseinlocalisedsocialinnovationexperiments,theimprovedsupplyofeco-efficientgoodsandservices,andincreasedcoverageofsustainabil-ityissuesinthemediaraisingawarenessinthepublicdebate.Wecallthesesignalsofprogress,
  5. 5. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|5“promisingpractices”ofmoresustainablelivingpractices,andtheyformagoodfoundationforexploringthefutureofsustainablelifestyles.SPREADingsustainablelifestylesinthefuturewillrequire,ontheonehand,adeeperunderstandingofhowtoscaleupcurrentpromisingpractices.Ontheother,weneedtoknowhowfarthesepracticeswilltakeustowardssustainablelivingforall,andwhatkindsofnewcreativesolutions,currentlyunknownor“unthinkable”,mightgetusthere.Ourresearchsuggeststhatinordertomakeprogressintheseareas,thatfocusshouldbeplacedonstrategiestoassist,motivateandinspirebehaviouralchange,aswellastheroleofinfrastructureandenablingsustainablelivingenvironments.Thescenariosforsustainablelifestyles2050presentfourdifferentprototypesofpossiblefuturesocietiesthatallsupportmoresustainablelifestyles.Ourlifestylescenariosarebasedonthefoundationsofsustainablesystems,andexploredifferentoptionsinanattempttoacknowledgethediversityamongEuropeancitizens.ThecriticalimpactsofcurrentEuropeanlifestylesare:Foodanddrink,privatetransportandhous-ingtogetheraccountfor70-80%ofEurope’senvironmentalimpactsstemmingfromfinalconsumption(Tukker,A.,G.Huppes,etal.(2006)).Meatanddairyconsumptionaloneaccountforalmostonequarter(24%)ofallfinalcon-sumptionimpacts–byfarthelargestshareinthefoodanddrinksector(Weidemaetal.2008).Domesticheating,waterconsumption,appli-anceandelectronicsuseaccountsfor40%ofEurope’stotalenergyconsumption(withheatingaloneaccountingfor67%ofhouse-holdenergyconsumptionintheEU-27)(EEA2010).CarownershipintheEU-27increasedbymorethanonethird(35%)intheperiodbetween1990and2007(EEA2010)andEUdriverscurrentlyownonethirdoftheworld’s750millioncars(IEA2010).IntheEU-27,approximately60%ofadultsandover20%ofschool-agechildrenareoverweightorobese.Coronaryheartdiseases(CHD)oftenassociatedwithfattyfoodsandsmoking,remainthesinglemostcommoncauseofdeathintheEU(WHO2011).Reference:Formoreinformation,pleasereadthefullSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050baselinereport,availabletodownloadfromwww.sustainable-lifestyles.eu.Consuming SocietyLivingMoving
  6. 6. 6|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050OurscenariosonsustainablelifestylesTheSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050pro-jectusesascenariomethodologytoexplorethediversewaysforpotentiallifestylepatternstoevolve,andhowthisevolutioncanovercomecurrentharmfulenvironmentalandsociallife-styleimpacts.Oursustainablelifestylescenariosarestoriesofpossiblefutureswheresocietiessupportmoresustainablewaysofliving.Thescenariospresentdifferentoptionsforsustaina-blelivingchoicesthatwillsuitthediverseneeds,desiresandculturalconsiderationsofcitizensfromacrossEurope.Thefourscenariospresentdifferingpathwaystoreachalternativesocietieswheresustainablewaysoflivingaresupported.Scenariosarenotpredictionsorforecastsbutinsteadseektoexplorethemostextremepos-sibilities,inordertohelpdecision-makersplanforthecurrently“unthinkable”.Inordertodevelopstoriesofthefuture,wefirstidentifiedthemostcriticalvariables–thecriticaldriversnecessarytocreatesustainablelifestyles.Someoftheelementsofourscenariostoriesmightsoundimprobableatfirst.Theaimofourscenariosistohelpthinktheunthinkableandplanforsustain-ableoptionsinthefuture.Thefocusofourscenariosliesprimarilyonpeople’slifestyles.Aspeoplelivewithinasoci-ety,andwithinglobalandlocalsystems,wealsoidentifysystemboundariessuchas,geopolitics,nationalpolitics,ortechnologyrelatedtoeachfuturescenario.Itisclearthatthesefactorshaveimmensedirectandindirectinfluenceonlife-styles.However,heretheyaredealtwithonlytotheextentthattheydirectlyexplainchangesinlifestylepatterns.Wehavechosenaspecificscenariomethodol-ogytoexploredifferentoptionsfornewEuropeansocialmodelsthatencouragesustainablelife-stylesin2050.Wefurtheroutlineourmethodol-ogyhere:1.Ourscenariosaimtodemonstratehowvarioussituationalandbehaviouralfactorscontributetothedevelopmentofsustainablelifestyles.Scenariosformapowerfultoolfortranslatinghowmegatrends,suchasclimatechange,rapidtechnologicaladvancements,andchangingdemographicpatternscouldchangeoureverydaylivesandthedecisionswemakeconcerninghowwelive,moveandconsumeinthefuture.2.Ourscenariosenableustoanalysethepotentialofcurrentpromisingsustainableliv-ingpracticeinrelationtothevariousfactorsSituationalandbehaviouralfactorsinfluencinghumanbehaviourSource:Defra,SustainableLifestylesFramework,2011.InfluencinghumanbehaviourEnvironmentalchangeBehaviouralfactorsSituationalfactorsGeographyCultureInfrastructureSocialLearningSocialNetworksInformationAccesstoCapitalInstitutionalFrameworkLeadershipAltruismAwarenessSelf-efficacyValuesPerceptionsNormsBeliefsExperienceAttitudesHabitsIdentityKnowledge
  7. 7. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|7ThebackcastingmethodInordertoestablishfoursustainablelifestylescenariosforEuropein2050,wehaveusedamethodologycalledbackcasting.Thebackcastingmethodallowsustoad-dresstheriskthatstartingfromthepresentmayleadtoconcentratingonchallengesthatareirrelevantforthefutureweaimtoachieve.Backcastinghelpsustosetourcompassestowardssustainablefuturesbydefiningsustainablelifestyles,andtheirelements,asfixedvariablegoals.Thisnorma-tivegoalasastartingpointforthescenarioshelpsustoseethediscrepanciesbetweencurrentrealitiesanddesirablefutures,butalsohelpsustounderstand,wheredisruptivechangesaremostneeded.Backcastingex-ploresalternativepathwaystosuccessfullyreachingthedesiredfuturegoals.Ourpremiseisthattherearefactorsthatsetlimitstomeaningfulfuturelivingsuchas:limitedglobalcrudeoilreservesthatforceproduc-tiontodeclineatsomepoint(peakoil)alimited“carbonbudget”ofgreenhousegasconcentrationintheatmosphereExceedingtheseorotherrelevantlimitswouldcre-atefeedbackeffectsthatwouldverylikelyreducetheresourcesandcapabilitiesavailabletopeoplelivinginthecomingdecades.Hencethescopeofdesirable,butachievablefutureswouldalsobemorelimitedinthefu-ture.Togeneratefuturelifestylescenariosthatarerele-vantandrobust,itisimperativetorecognizetheselimits.CylindermodelofconstructingpossiblefuturescenariosConemodelofconstructingmeaningfulfuturescenariosdrivingalternativesustainablefutures.Throughscenariosweaimtoexplorethewaysinwhichpromisingnichestrate-giesformoresustainablelivingcouldgrowintowidespreadpracticesthathavethepo-tentialtodecreasetheoverallenvironmentalstressonoursocieties.3.Ourscenariosprovideastart-ingpointforidentifyingoppor-tunityspacesforthedevelop-mentofcreativestrategiestonotonlymainstreamcurrentsustainablepractices,butalsotodevelopnewsolutionsformoresustainablelivingso-cieties.Thescenariosofferinsightsintohowdifferentdriv-ersofchangeinteract,shapelifestylesandhelpinidentifyingtheroleofvariousgatekeep-erswhofacilitatethechangethroughscalingupandmulti-plyingthecurrent,promisingpracticesondifferentstagesofdevelopment.SpaceofopportunitiesUsualfutureperspectiveFutureperspectivewithsystemboundariesSpaceofopportunities2050Now2050NowCarbonbudgetPeakoilCorevision
  8. 8. 8|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Thesustainablelifestyle=8000kgperannumInordertocreatescenariosforsustainablelife-stylesin2050,weneeddefinitionsandcommontargetstospecifywhatismeantby”sustainablelifestyles”.IntheSPREADprojectwehavede-finedthematerialfootprintofasustainablelife-styleat8000kgperannum(p.a.)foroneperson.Thisquantifiedtargetformsthefundamentalassumptiononwhicheachofourfourdevelopedandpreviouslydescribedscenariosisbuilt.Ourscenariosdescribewhat8000kglivingcanlooklikeinfourdiversefuturesocieties.The8000kgp.a.ofmaterialfootprintperpersonisbasedontheworkofMichaelLettenmeier,StefanBringezu,FriedrichSchmidt-BleeketalfromtheWuppertalInstituteforClimate,Environ-mentandEnergyonasafeandsustainablelevelofnaturalresourceuse.Thematerialfootprintisatooltomeasureandmanageoroptimizetheresourceconsumptionofourlifestyles,includingtheproductsandproduc-tionprocessesbehindthem(i.e.intheareasofconsuming,moving,housingandhealth).Inthiscontext,oursustainablelifestylematerialfootprintmeanstheuseofrenewableandnon-renewablematerialresources(excl.waterandair)plustheerosioncausedbyagricultureandforestry.Itcov-ersthewholelifecyclefromtheextractionofrawmaterialstotheprocessingindustry,distribution,consumption,recycling,anddisposal.Theideaofthematerialfootprintistoprovideacomprehensiveandunderstandabletooltoreducedifferentkindsofpresentandfutureenvi-ronmentalchallenges(forexampleintheareasoffood,mobility,housingandhealth).WhenthematerialfootprintofanaverageEu-ropeanlifestyledropsfrom27000–40000(ap-proximatecurrentaveragelifestylefootprintperperson)to8000kgperyear,theenvironmentalandresultingsocialimpactsofourlifestyleswilldropandchangeconsiderably.Thematerialfootprintthusservesasatooltocomprehensivelydirectlifestylestolevelswithinplanetarybounda-riesasdescribede.g.byJohanRockströmandotherscientists(seebelow).Italsoprovidesawaytomeasureprogressandmilestonesofsuccesstowardsourfuturesustainablelifestylegoals.Thematerialfootprintof8000kgp.a.consistsofhouseholdgoods,foodandbeverages,eve-rydaymobilityandtourism,electricity,heatingandhousing.However,thecompositionofthefootprintisnotsimilarforeveryone.Theshareofconsumptioninamaterialfootprintof8000kgp.a.candifferbasedonthevalues,needsandaspirationsofeachperson’suniquelifestyle.Forexample,somepeoplemayaccumulatemoreoftheirfootprintthroughmobilitywhileothersmoveless,butliveinalargerapartment.Noteveryoneneedstolivethesameway,but–atleastonaver-age–everyonemustlivewithinboundariesofourplanetarysysteminordertorealizeoursustain-ablefuture.
  9. 9. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|9Earth-systemprocessCurrentvalueBoundaryvalueClimatechangeAtmosphericcarbondioxideconcentration(ppmbyvolume)387350BiodiversitylossExtinctionrate(numberofspeciespermillionperyear)>10010BiochemicalAnthropogenicnitrogenremovedfromtheatmosphere(millionsoftonnesperyear)12135LanduseLandsurfaceconvertedtocropland(percent)11,715FreshwaterGlobalhumanconsumptionofwater(km3/yr)26004000OzonelayerStratosphericozoneconcentration(Dobsonunits)283276Reference:RockströmJ.etall.(2011)HumandevelopmentCurrentValueGoal2050HumanDevelopedIndex(measureoflifeexpectancy,literacy,educationandstandardsofliving)0,630,77Yearsofeducationinlessdevelopedcountries(averageyears)68Lifeexpectancy(globalaverage)70>75GINIcoefficient(Measureoftheinequality:avalue0expressingtotalequalityandavalue1maximalinequality.)0,70,55Globalpopulation(billion)78,9Reference:UNDP(2011)Environmentalandsocialindicatorsincludedinthe8000kgp.a.lifestyle:EnvironmentalboundariesSocialboundaries2.SocialboundariesWeusepopulationgrowthandhumandevelop-mentindicesbasedonstatisticsandresearchbyUNDPandUNPopulationDivision.Thesesocialsystemboundaries(thegoalsfor2050)aretheminimumrequirementsforsociallysustainabledevelopment.Thematerialfootprintboundaryof8000kgp.a.foroneperson’slifestyleisbasedontheworldwiderecognitionofthesesocialsystemboundaries.1.EnvironmentalboundariesWedrawontheplanetaryboundariesframe-workdevelopedbyagroupofearthsystemandenvironmentalscientistsledbyJohanRockströmfromtheStockholmResilienceCentre.Duetothecomplexityofquantifyingtheseplanetarybound-aries,weonlyincludedsixoftheoriginalnineinthebackgroundconsiderationsforthescenarios.AsthequantificationoftheindicatorsusedbyRockström’sgrouponalifestylelevelwouldhavebeenextremelycomplex,weusedthematerialfootprint(seeabove)asanindicatorforthevari-ouskindsofenvironmentalimpactscausedbyanykindofmaterialandenergyuse.
  10. 10. 10|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Fourscenarios,twocriticaluncertaintiesPandemictechnologyGloballythereareafewdominanttechnologiesforanytaskorhumanneed.Technologiesforbuilding,transportation,energyproduction,andcommunicationexisteverywhereandlooksimilar.There’sfiercecompetitionontheglobalmarketsandcommercialdominanceyieldshugerewards.Technologyin2011couldbecalledpandemic.Every-one’sonfacebookanddrivesacar(producedbyafewglobalmanu-facturers)thatrunsonpetrolordieselfuel(globallyexchangedgoods).Human-centrismAhuman-centricsocietypivotsaroundwideningtheuseofhumancapitalinallitsforms.Bothcivicandpublicuseofskillsisvalued.Everyonehassomethingvaluabletogiveortodo.Society’ssuc-cessdependsoneveryonecontributingandoneveryone’sabilitytobegoodcitizens,familymembers,neighboursandprofessionals.Thereissomedivi-sionoflabour,butself-improvementthroughleisureisalsoverymuchappre-ciated:e.g.throughfamilytime,activeconsumption,civicactivities,handicraft,arts.Youdowhatyoucan–andwhatyoufeelmotivatedtodo.MeritocracyAmeritocraticsocietycirclesaroundprofessionalskills.Themostcom-merciallyvaluableprofessionalskillsaretheenginesoftheeconomy.Membersofthoseprofessionsarepaidaccordingly.Policiesandstruc-turesarecustomizedtofacilitatetheworkoftheleadingindustriesandprofessions.Divisionoflabourisatitsextreme.Youdoonlywhatyou’rereallygoodat.EndemictechnologyThetools,infrastructures,andsolutionsweusearebornandgrownlocally:technologyemergesoutoflocalconditions,resources,andpeculiarities.Locallivingconditionsruletechnology.Wherethereiswood,housesarebuiltoftimber–wherethedaysareextremelyhot,peopleliveintents.Thecorpusofglobalscienceandtechnologyiswide,yetapplicationsarehighlylocal.Theeconomyisdrivenbyef-ficiencyandinnovationsgainedthroughthinkingandactinglocally.Inordertoestablishfourscenariosthatwouldsignificantlydifferfromeachother,wedefinedattheoutsetfourfuturelandscapesthroughwhichthescenarioswouldbeconstructed.Thiswasdonebycombiningthetwocriticalvari-ables,whichwecalluncertainties.Weusetheseuncertaintiestodefinelifestylesandsocieties.Thetwouncertaintiesandassumptionsaboutthemunderliningourworkwerethat:Technologyiseitherpandemicorendemic.Society’sgoverningprincipleiseitherhuman-centricormeritocratic.Bycombiningthesetwosetsofalternatives,wereachedourfourpossiblefuturelandscapes.Thefollowingaredescriptionsofwhatthesefuturelandscapeswouldlooklikeonthesocietallevel.Thesetwocriticaluncertaintiesdefinedthemaindriversshapingthescenariosandthescenarioprocess.Atlaterstageoftheworkwedefinedfouradditionaldriversforeachscenario.Withthehelpofthesedriverswewereabletogivearea-sonableexplanationonhowsustainablelifestylesandthesustainablesocietycanbereachedineachscenario.
  11. 11. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|11SingularSuperChampionsLocalLoopsGoverningtheCommonsEmpatheticCommunitiesPandemictechnologyHuman-centrismMeritocracyEndemictechnology
  12. 12. 12|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Thedevelopmentoffuturescenariosformoresustainablelifestylesin2050buildsonallprevi-ousworkintheproject.Theresearchconductedoncriticallifestyleimpactsaswellasthebarri-ersanddriversimpedingandencouragingmoresustainablewaysoflivingprovideasolidbasisforcreatingpathwaystowardspossiblefutureswherethesechallengescanbeovercomeandopportunitiesforimprovedlivingrealised.Sustainablelifestylescenarios2050–the“makingof”Thecreationofalternativefuturesforsustainablelifestylestoasfaras2050wascompletedinfivephases.1.Definingtheframework(axesofcriticalun-certainties)forthecreationofthescenarioquadrants:BaselineresearchandfindingsoftheSPREADDelphisurveyofexpertviews.2.Definingfourscenariolandscapes.3.Exploringthepathwaystosustainableliving:BackcastingworkshopinTuusula,Finland.4.Qualifyingandquantifyingthescenariosandpathways:Research&2ndDelphisurvey.5.Finalisingthescenariostoriesandvisualisa-tions.Howdidwegethere?PhaseOne:DefiningthescenarioframeworkThedevelopmentofourscenarioframeworkincludedtheanalysisoftheproject’sbaselinere-searchandidentificationofpromisingpracticeonsustainablelifestyles,aswellasfurtherinputandanalysisfromacrosscuttinggroupofrelevantstakeholdersandexperts.InNovember2011,followingthebaselinere-search,aselectiveDelphiSurveywasconductedamongstacrosscuttinggroupofrelevantstake-holdersandexperts.Thesurveyaimedatfindingafeasibleframeworkforthebackcastingwork-shop.ThesurveyquestionnairewasformulatedbasedonthefindingsoftheSPREADbaselinereport,theSPREADlaunchconferencereportandpromisingpracticescardsfromtheSPREADVisioningworkshop.Around40peopleoutof110invitedrespondedtothesurvey.Thesurveyquestionnaireincludedaformulationofassumptionsor“arguments”thatparticipantswereaskedtoevaluate(basedonassumptionsprobability,desirabilityandimportance)andcom-ment(explainingwhatdriverswouldcauseanassumptiontoberealisedorfailtoberealised).Insteadofaskingforcommentsoncurrenttrends,therespondentswererequestedtodescribethingstheyseeinplacein2050,inaworldwheresustainablelifestylesarethenormacrossEurope.Phasetwo:DefiningfourscenariolandscapesBasedontheanalysisoftheresearchandthesurvey,wewereabletodefinetwocriticalvariablesoruncertaintiesthatwecombinedtoproducefouralternativefuturelandscapes.Wedidthisusingtheprinciplesofsystemsthinking,whichhelpedusmaptherelevantsituationalandbehaviouralfactorsinfluencinghumanbehaviour.Thetwocriticaluncertaintiesaretechnologyandasociety’sgoverningprinciple.Wewereabletodividetechnologyintoeitherpandemicorendem-ic,andthegoverningprincipleofthesocietyintoeithermeritocraticorhuman-centred.Bycombin-ingtheseuncertainties,wecreatedthescenarioquadrants.Thesewereelaboratedintofouralter-nativefuturelandscapes,whichformedthebasisforourworkinthebackcastingworkshop.Phasethree:Exploringthepathwaystosus-tainableliving:Backcastingwork-shopinTuusula,FinlandThe”Countingbackwardsworkshop”washeldonthe24-25thofNovember2011inTuusula,Finland.There,fouralternativescenariopathwaysfrom2012to2050werecreatedwiththehelpof
  13. 13. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|1354participantsfrom16countries,representingstakeholdergroupsfromstart-upbusinessestogovernments,multinationalcompanies,NGOs,researchers,entrepreneurs,designersandindependentpolicyexperts.TheseparticipantsweredividedintofourgroupsandeachdefinedanalternativescenarionarrativeandpathwaystosustainablelifestylesinEuropebetween2012and2050.Intheworkshopthebackcastingmethodwasusedtoexplorethepathwaystomoresustaina-blelivingandtofurtherdefineeachalternativefu-turescenario.Startingwiththealternativefuturelandscapescreatedinphasetwo,participants“countedbackwards”fromthe2050futurestotoday.Eachgroupwaschallengedtoco-createthepathwaystotheiralternativefuturewheresustainable8000kglifestylesaresocietalnorms–Whatwouldhavetohavehappened2040,2025and2015inordertoreachdifferent8000kglife-stylesinthisscenario?Specialfocuswasputoncriticallifestyleimpactissues(e.g.food,mobility,housingandhealth)aswellasdriversoflifestylechoices,suchasenablinginfrastructureandbe-haviorchangestrategiesthatwerehighlightedintheSPREADbaselineresearch.Phasefour:Qualifyingandquantifyingthescenariosandpathways:Research&DelphisurveyToqualifythescenariostoriesandpathwaysfor-mulatedinphasethree,asecondDelphisurvey,withstakeholdersandexperts,wasconducted.Theaimofthesecondsurveywastogatheradditionalassumptionsandargumentsforeachscenario.Respondentswereaskedtocommentfromtheperspectiveofhisorherexpertise.Surveyresultswerefedintoareviseddraftofthescenarios.ThescenariodraftswerefurthertestedandquantifiedthroughtheSPREADPeople’sForum,whichwecall“iFuture”.iFutureenabledustoexplorethescenarioswith“realpeople”fromacrossEurope,withfocusgroupsassembledinfourEuropeancountriesfromJanuary-March2012(Finland,Germany,HungaryandSpain).IntheiFutureworkshopstheSPREADprojectwasabletoconnectthescenariostoriestopeo-ples’realassumptions,aspirationsandideasabout“thegoodlife”andtheirownsustainablelifestyles,wherethesizeofindividualmaterialfootprintsdonotexceed8000kgp.a.Phasefive:FinalisingthescenariostoriesandvisualisationsInthefinalphase,thescenarioswereadvancedtofinalstoriesandvisualisationstoshowwhatsustainablelifestylesin2050couldlooklikewerecreated.Atthisstage,thescenarioswerefurtherelaboratedontomakethedifferencesineachalternativefuturesocietyexplicitwiththeidentifi-cationoffourdriversofchangeforeachscenario.Furtherfocuswasputondefiningwhatlifeislikefordifferentpeopleineachscenarioandhowenvironmentalandsocialchangeshaveimpactedtheirlives,orbecomecatalystsforbehaviourchange.
  14. 14. 14|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Fourscenariostosustainablelifestyles2012–2050
  15. 15. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|15SingularSuperChampions
  16. 16. 16|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050SingularSuperChampionsAnageingEuropereceivesatransformativeandrejuvenatingspark,inordertosurviveasChinabeganitsstridestowardsgainingtotalglobaldominanceincleantechmarketsatthestartofthe2010decade.Atalmostthelastmoment,in2015,theEUwageredallofitspoliticalpowerandpublicresourcestoforcecompaniesandconsumersintotheeraofanewindustrialrevo-lution.Developingnewmaterialsandbringingaboutarevolutioninproductiontechnologiescomesaboutthroughincentivesandpoliticalmeasures.Europeannationsagreetoremoveallsubsidiesfromindustriesoperatingwithinef-ficientlegacytechnologiesintheenergyandresourceintensivefields.AllavailablebudgetinthememberstatesisinvestedinmassiveR&Dcentres,demonstrationprojectsandespeciallyineducation.Thiswasnotapain-freeroadtosuccess.Revo-lutionisingtechnologicallyandecologicallyout-datedproductionprocesses,aswellas,cuttingsubsidiesfromfuelandmanyothercommoditiesmeansthatmanypeoplelosttheirjobs.Alltrans-portation,andespeciallysinglecarusebecamemuchmoreexpensiveandallassociatedhous-ingcostsrose.Thebigreformdidn’ttreateverycitizenorregionequally.Thiscreatedturmoilindecliningregionsinthe2020’sbut,themasseswereforcedtoadapt.SimultaneousreformsinwelfareprovisionsduetobudgetcutsdrovemanyEuropeanstomigrateandsearchforincomeop-portunitiesfromthrivingmetropolitanregionsthusspeedinguptheconcentrationofthepopulationandsourcesofwealth.Biginvestmentspaidoff:Scientificbreakthroughsinmaterialtechnologymadetheup-cyclingofrawmaterialsprofitable.Firmsinthecradletocradlebusinessstartedtomakesolidprofitsinthelatterhalfof2020’s.Accesstotheconsump-tioncycleandwhatwaspreviouslycalledwastebecamethekeydeterminantofsuccesstothelargemultinationalfirms.Newserviceanddis-tributionmodelswerecreated.Theyputnewemphasisonbuildinglastingrelationshipswithcustomers.Thiswastheonlywaytomakethevaluableresourcesstoredinmaterialproductsreturntoproduction.Consumersexperiencedthisthroughservicesthatequippedthemconstantlywithup-to-datemodelsofthegoodstheyhaveonceboughtaccessto.Forsome,thesetechno-logicallydrivenlifestylegoodscompensatedandreplacedtheirpastneedsforspacioussingle-familyhousesandmodestlypricedcars.SingularSuperChampionsisasocietyinwhichsuccess,bothforindividualsandsocietiesalike,isgainedthroughpersistentfaithineducationandenterprise.Injobmarketsexpertiseiseve-rythingbecausetechnologydevelopsfastandtheonlysourceofsuccessintheeraofresourcescarcityisexpertknowledge.Everyonehasaccesstobasiceducation,learn-ingandknowledge.Butbeyondthatthereisamoralobligationforcontinuousdevelopmentofpersonalandprofessionalskillsthatdrivesus-tainablesocieties.Leisuretimeisthereforequitedifferentfromleisuretimein2012.Itisspentonlearningandeducationthatisself-centredyetAlternativeSustainableSociety1:Supporting8000kgSustainableLifestylesInthescenarioSingularSuperChampionsEu-ropehasmadetheleaptoanewtypeofsus-tainable,competitiveandequitableeconomy:aresultofnumeroustreaties,declarationsandofficialgoalsstartingfrom2035.Theleapisachievedwiththedeploymentofmarketinstru-mentsthatalsoradicallyreformmanycondi-tionsthathaveshapedEuropeanlifestylesoverthepastdecades.Cleantechandupcyclingbusinessesflourishassustainabilityhasbecomethebusinessopportunityofthecentury.EuropeofSingularSuperChampionsisasocietythatcelebratesanethosoflearning,achievingandself-mastery.SingularSuperChampionsLocalLoopsGoverningtheCommonsEmpatheticCommunitiesPandemictechnologyHuman-centrismMeritocracyEndemictechnology
  17. 17. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|17Whatchangesbetween2012and2050?EducationEmbeddedintoeverydaylifeandpractices,lifelonginsteadofshortcyclesinthebeginningoflife.Individualizedandcommoditisized.Basisofwelfareprovision.WorkHumanresourceshighlightwork.Talentisconcen-tratedinglobalorganizations.Entrepreneurvs.supertalentedmultinationalsclass.City10-15highlyurbanizedmetropolisesinEurope.Extremelydense.Lotsofnewinfrastructure.Newspecialisedareasofexcellence.HealthPreventativepublichealthcare.Rationaldiets.Self-diagnosis.LivingLocationcompensatessizeoftheflat.Newmaterialsanddesign.Pricedrivesdensity.FoodPriceandhealthefficientdiet.Largescaleorganicproduction.MobilityNewrailsystemswithinandbetweenmetropolises.Personalizedrapidtransportsystems.Smartmobilitysolutions.Highprices.ConsumingMeaningsandsymbolsgetconsumedmorethanproducts.Educationandself-projectedme.Pricemechanism.EconomyLargemultinationalfirms.Efficiency.Competition.Eco-industrialrevolution.StandardizedtransparentdataSenseofsecurityFromtechnologicalprogress.Transparency.Surveil-lance.Individualchoices.Thoughtleaders.LeasuretimeInvestinginowneducationandtraining.pragmatic.Themostaffluentpeople,TheSingu-larSuperChampions,havetranscendedmaterialconsumption.Insteadofconsuming,theymakeinvestmentsinthemselvesthroughstudyingnewskills,bothtoimproveprofessionallyandtobe-comechampionsoftheirindividuallifestyle.Howaresustainablelifestylesachieved?Theroadtowardssustainabilitystartedwithpeo-plehavingtopaymoreforthenecessitiesandluxuriesthatarelessexpensivein2012.Duetoextremeurbanisation,peopleliveinevenmoredensecitiesthantheydidinthe2010’s.Astheimportanceofcitiesandtheircentresriseatthesametime,themosttalentedpeopleaspiretobeinthedowntownareasofprogressintheme-tropolis.Thisraisesthepricesofapartmentsandlocationstartstocompensateforspace–whichleadstomoresustainablehousingalternativesforthemainstream.Withregardstomobility,risingresourcepricesstartedtoinfluencepeople’sbehaviourevenmoredirectly.Asthepriceofgashitnewpeaks,someofthepooresthouseholdsendedupsacrificingsig-nificantamountsoftheirincomefortheirpersonalmobility.Thisdroveurbanisation,whichagainledtopeopleneedingtousetheirresourcesformobilityless.Onlythemostwealthypeoplehadthepossibilitytotravelexceedinglyasairtravelwasoutofreachformany.Mobilityingeneralhasdecreaseddramaticallyovertheyears.Thepainfulmeasuresprovidedacatalystforrapidchange.Sustainabilityhasbecomethebusinessopportu-nityofthecentury.Itbreathesnewlifeintoentre-preneurship,newbusinessmodels,andpeopleexperimentwithvariousaspectsofsustainablelivingathomewhichsavesmoneyintheshorttermandprovesresilientinthelongterm.Aspeoplestartedtogetaccesstodetaileddataontheirownbehaviourthroughtheirsmartphonesinrealtime,andscienceprovidesin-creasingamountsofinformationregardinghealthyandsustainablealternatives,peoplestartedrationalizingtheirdiets.Insteadoftaste,nutritionbecamethekeydriverofday-to-dayfoodchoices.Inadditiontopricedriverschangingthewayspeoplebehave,technologicalinnovationhasprovidedmanysustainablechoicesandalterna-tivesnotavailablein2012.Newmaterialsmadeitpossibletobuildhousesthatareextremelyenergyefficient.Breakthroughsintechnologyenableretrofittingandnewconstructionasvi-ablewaystoprovidesustainablelivingpossibili-ties.Thepost-oilera,inturn,changedcarsintomobilesolutionsforelectricity.LocallyproducedrenewableenergyisstoredinidlecarbatterieswhencarsareparkedInasocietyofSingularSuperChampionssustainabilityisaccomplishedthroughchangesinbehaviourpatternsandcon-sumptionpracticesandconsumerchoicesalongwithtechnologicalinnovations.SingularSuperChampionsscenarionarrative–howdiditallhappen?»TheEuropeanGreenNewDeal»Transparencygetsthepricesright»Theupcyclingeconomy»Learning,notearningThesedriversaredepictedaseventsonthetimeline.WhatislifelikeinSingularSuperChampions
  18. 18. 18|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050TheEuropeanGreenNewDealTransparencygetsthepricesrightTheupcyclingeconomyLearning,notearning2015:EUprimeministersconcludethatreformsofunprecedentedscopeneedtobeimplementedinallEUcountriestopreventthemfromfallingintoapermanentstateofzerogrowth.Evidence-basedpolicy-makinggainsprominenceandbringspoliticsandresearchclosertogether.2015:InChina,there’sanoutbreakofproblemsrelatedtoclimatechange.Naturalcatastrophes,includingdrought,eliminateagrowingshareofcrops,caus-ingfoodpricestorisedramatically.2015:Thebeginningofthefinancialyearstartedwitharemarkableboominrenewa-blesinemergingmarkets.Thevitalityofrenewablescomeslargelyfromavibrantprivatesector.2019:Afraidofcitizensgrowingrestless,leadersoftheCommunistpartyinChinaannounceanewfive-yearplanwhichisaboutinvestingagreatshareofChina’smassivedollarreservesintheclean-techsector,intowhichithasalreadypouredaconsiderableamountofmoneyoverthepast10years.2020:Thereispressuretorevolu-tionisetechnologicallyandecologi-callyoutdatedproductionprocesseandeliminateexpensiveandharmfincentives.Economicsubsidies(e.gfuel)willbecutandecologicalcostwillbeinternalizedinprices.“Educationiseverywhereindailylife.Kidscanlogintoanyobjectandaccesstheso-called‘situatededucationpro-grammes’andlearnflexiblyallthroughtheday.”“Wouldyouliketolearnsomethingnew”asksthenewcomputerprogramIjustbought.AllaroundEuropewelearnthesamethingsfromstate-of-the-artsoftware.2016:InDenmarkandNorwaycom-prehensiveeducationalreformsaimatimprovinglearningcapacitythroughmovingprimaryeducationpartlyout-sidetheclassroom.Meandmywifearehappythatour5-year-olddaugh-tergotacceptedintoaspecialistmathsschoolfortheverytalented.Thismeanstalenthunterswillnoticeherinnotime.2015Ijustboughtanappthatallowsmetotrackmyconsumption.Mypersonalpurchasehistoryismyownpropertynow!2018:PeopleallaroundEuropeinvestinlargefirmsthatcompeteoverhegemonyinsustainabletechnologies.2018:Acoalitionofthe5000biggestenterprisesbasedintheEUlaunchesaninitiativetoawardjointdegrees.Leadershipandcompetitivenessarenur-turedthroughinternationalex-amsandotherlearningeventsincludinge.g.competitions,whichareseenasthebestwaytoprovidestudentswiththeskillstheyneed.SchoolprogramsintegratingindailyactivitiesDiffusedlearningembeddedineverydayproductsIt’ssocoolthatthelunchcafeatourworkservesfoodforhealthyandcost-efficientdiets.It’sthehot-testfoodtrendaroundandnowIdon’thavetovisitthecoolestareasintowntoenjoyit.It’righthere,whereIwork!
  19. 19. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|192021:NewcompetitivenessmechanismsareintroducedintheEurozone.GovernmentssupportR&Dactivitiestoexploreeco-logicalproductionmethods.2022:DesertecattractssolarcompaniesallovertheworldtoconquerspotsintheSahara.Oneofthelargestfirmsinthesectorannouncesthattheywillstartprovidingtransparentinformationontheproductioncycle,energyandnaturalresourceconsumptiononalltheirproducts.2024:PlanstoshifttheemphasisofwelfareprogrammesgraduallytowardssupportingyoungpeopleandeducationpassesatanEUsummit.OnthebasisofgoodexamplesfromDenmark,itisalsoagreedthatbasiceducationshouldbereformedtoincludemoretrainingonskillsforlife,e.g.adopt-inghealthylifestyles.2022:ThemajorityofEUmemberstatesintroducenewcross-cuttingroadpricingforallroadsduetotheneedtocompensateforlossesinfueltaxrevenuesthatareattrib-utedtoincreasedvehicleenergyefficiencyandashifttoelectriccars.Asaresult,peoplestarttoprefershortcommutingdistances,service-richneighborhoodsandgoodlocationoverlargelivingspace.2024:Possessinghalfofworld’sphospho-rusreserves,Moroccostartstoregulatesalesofthis“newgold”.Thisinturnleadstounforeseenhikeinfertilizerprices.Decreaseduseeventuallystartstoaffectannualcropyields.2025:Thebiggestcompaniesinfood,construc-tion,ICT,manufacturingandcarindustriesagreeontransparencystandardsondataconcerningtheenergyandnaturalresourceconsumptionoftheirproductionprocesses.TheEUcountries,ChinaandUSAsoonadoptthesestandardsasbasisforlegislation,whichmeansthatpracticallyallproductionandserviceshavetomeetsimilartransparencystandards.“FormeronlinegameslikeBiodivBattleorSimSustturnedouttobepopularsustainabilitygamesthatspreadeco-consciousnessbetterthananycampaigneverdid.”Throughtransparentin-formationandincreasededucation,I’mveryknowl-edgeableaboutwhatishealthytoeat,howmuchexerciseisneededandwhatarethesymptomsofdifferentdiseases.Healthcareismorepreventative.Someofmyemploy-eeshavetospend40%ontravelaslongdistancecommut-ingandrisinggaspriceshavereallyhittheirbudgets.Mostofthemhavealreadymadethemovetopublictransportandmanyareconsider-ingmovingclosertoouroffice.2020:Peoplecelebratethelaunchofthehigh-speedrailnetworkthathasbeenexpandedtocoverallroutesbetweenEu-rope’smajorcities.Thesetrainsstarttopushairlinecompaniesoutofthemarket.20202025MycousinMichaelboughtafarmlastweek.Theglobalriseoffoodpricesisturningpeopleto-wardsagriculturalcareers.Educativesimula-tiongamesAssistedfamilylearningprocessesBanksstarttoprovidenewenergysolu-tionsforpeopletofinancetheenergyretrofittingoftheirhouse.2023:Globaldigitalintegrationbringsproductcyclesandsystemsclosertogether,enablingnewinnovationstobeintroducedeasilyacrosstheglobe.Thisappliestohouseholds,too,asspecifictechnologicalmonitoringpro-grammessupportindividualsinreducingfoodwastetopracticallyzero.
  20. 20. 20|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050TheEuropeanGreenNewDealTransparencygetsthepricesrightTheupcyclingeconomyLearning,notearning2028:Withthehelpoftransparentproductdatapeoplelearntounderstandhowindi-vidualconsumerchoicesinfood,housing,mobilitybuildtheiroveralllifestyle.2025:Thankstomajorleapsintechnology,thefirstcost-effectivelarge-scaleupcyclingprocessesarelaunchedintheEuropeanmarkets.Newenterprisesstarttodeveloparoundtheprovisionanddistributionofresources.Theyleaseproductsinordertomakesurethattheyretainownershipofresourcesusedinproduction.Cradle-to-cradleisthefastestgrowingbusinessandareaofresearch.“…Wehavecarefullypre-paredasus-tainabletriptoChina.Wearegoingbyboatandarestart-ingtolearnthelanguagesothatwecancommunicatewiththepeo-plewhowillhostusthere.”2028:China,USAandtheEUmakemassiveinvestmentsinclean-techthattogetherwithdrasticpricehikesinscarcenaturalresourcesbringthepricesofecologicallysustainablegoodsbelowthepricesoftheirunsustain-able,resource-intensiverivalsacrossallsectors.Thesethreeglobalpowersdrivesustainableindustry.OneofthesuburbsinBilbaowasrebuiltwiththenew-eststate-of-the-artenergyefficientmaterials.Afriendofminejustmovedthere.Itisattractingpeoplewhopreviouslycouldnothaveimaginedlivinginsuchalocation.20252030Ieatonlyfoodthat’shyper-efficientintermsofnutritionlevels.Cabbages,lentilsandberriesarekeyelementsinmydiet.Itjustmakessense!2026:Flyingchangesdramaticallyasthemajorairlinesagreeonminimumserviceefficiencystandards.Planescannowonlyflywithover90%passengercapacity;otherwisetheymustre-scheduleorpostponetake-off–unlesssomeoneiswillingtopayfull-priceforthevacantseats.WhenIflewtoBerlinlastmonth,Ihadtowait11hoursuntiltheflightwasfullyoccupied.Regardless,itcostmeamonths’ssal-ary,asaviationtaxationissteeperthanever.SlowtourismactivitiesVacationsarelongerbutlessfrequent2025:Anewsmartgridsolutionisan-nouncedthatconnectstheUK,GermanyandFrance’senergyconsumption.Theamountofenergyusedinhouseholdsdropssignificantly.2030:Mostofthemajoreconomicpapersacknowledgethatcradle-to-cradleisthemostefficientproductionmethodre-gardlessofproductionsectorormaterialsrequired.Itquicklyreachesallpartsofproductionsystems.Asasignificantproportionofusableresourcesisownedbyusers,theyalsobecomepartofthesenetworks.2030:Thankstoinformaticsapps,educationalsoftwareandonlinelearningnetworks,peopleareempoweredtomakeexcellentra-tionalchoicesandtheirdesireformaterialgoodsdeclines.materialgoodsdecline.
  21. 21. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|21“Iamsurethatfromclothingcaretofoodpreparationeverythingisdoneinourfamilyinthemostsustainableway.Ourhomeusesitssensorstocontroleve-rythingsoitisenergyefficient.”Intelligentandsmartpackagingoffoodfortransparency,awarenessandlesswaste.WelivedinthesuburbswhenIwasachildanddroveeverywhere.Ican’timaginelivingsofarawayandhavingsomuchspaceathomenow.Myparentssoldtheirhousesevenyearsagoandnowlivetwoblocksfromusinaniceonelivingroomapart-ment.There’sadentalclubforthosewhowanttolearnandtakecareoftheirteethInmyapartmentbuilding.Igothereeverymonthtolearnself-dentistry.Anewwastemineopenednearby.Theycollectwastefromoldlandfillsandprovidejobopportunitiesforthelocals.2034:Austrianchildrenwiththemostpotentialtobecomemembersofthefuturechampionsareidentifiedatanearlyageandhand-pickedforfuturetraining,i.e.theirskillsareimprovedinlearningstudiosandtopschools.20352037:There’sare-allocationofnon-productiveleisuretimeintoanopportunitytolearn,includ-ingsubconsciouslearning(e.g.computergamesthatarelinkedwiththecityenviron-ment).Schoolsthathoneskillsareestablished,nourishingandnurturingindividualskills.I’msoproudofmydaughter.She’ssocuriousaboutherenvironmentandenjoysthepossibilitiesoftheembeddededucationeverywhere.Tobehonest,Ienjoyitpersonallyaswell.Ilearnnewthingseveryday!ControlboardforhouseholdservicesGreendietdeliveryservices2035:NewconcentrationsofR&Dandproductionclustersbasedaroundlargefirms,andcloselylinkedtooneanother,emergearoundEurope.OneofthebestexamplesofthesenewclustersislocatedinPortugal.
  22. 22. 22|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050TheEuropeanGreenNewDealTransparencygetsthepricesrightTheupcyclingeconomyLearning,notearningTheNo-WasteWorldCupcontesthasbeenoneofthemostpopularleisuretimeactivi-tiesinrecentyears.2043:Ahandfuloflargefirmsdominatecradle-to-cradlebusi-ness.Thesesuper-firmsdrivesustainabledevelopment.2039:Productionbusinessesarecompetingoverrightstoexploitwasteconcentrations,e.g.thatofthePacificOcean.Largeproductionentitiesenjoyeconomiesofscaleandpossessresourcesextensiveenoughtoleadlargewasteminingprocesses.2042:AccordingtotheEuroFactsSurvey,timespentdoingphysicalexerciseamongyoungpeopleandyoungadultsissoaring.Thankstoeducationreformanditsnewfocusonhealthpromotion,thereareveryfewyoungpeoplesmokingandoverall,thehealthdifferencesbe-tweendifferentsocialgroupshavediminished.20402040:Duetoashiftintaxregula-tion,informationtransparencyandpublicpressure,mostofthebusinesseshaveturnedintosocialenterprises,whicharebeneficialtotheenvironmentandsociety.“Myaluminiumusageistaxed!”criesoutawomaninDenmarkasthecountrypreparesfortaxationbasedonnaturalresourceusage.Agroupofpeoplegetsmargin-alisedfromsocietyastheyfailtoadapttochangingconsump-tionpatterns.Iwanttospendmyleisuretimedoingsomethingproductive.Igotoschoolsforeveryonetohonemyskills.Copenhagen–Barcelona,4,5hours!readsanadvertise-mentforhigh-speedtrainlinethatjustopenedinMay.2039:AllaroundEurope,technologicalbreakthroughsallowinformationtocirculatewithoutbarriers.Thedevelopmentofstocksofnaturalresourcescanbetrackedinrealtimebyeveryone.Resourcepricesincreasehandinhandwithdecreasingstocks,furtherencouragingthesmartuseofresources.Thankstothetransparentinformation,speculationonnaturalresourcesinthefinancesectordecreases.ID-DNACardspersonalisemedicineforindividuals.Everybodyhasacardthatcontainstheirgeneticmap,biologicaldata,aswellasinformationabouttheirdietandhabits,inordertoprovideallinformationnecessaryfordoctorsandothercaregiverstoprovidepersonalisedhealingsolutions.Personalrapidtransitrailshaverevolution-isedthewaywetravelhereinUlm.Thereisatwominutewalktothestopwherethepre-routedcartawaitsme.Icanreachtherailwaystationinsixminutes.Wejustgotridofthefamilycarandourlivesarenowmucheasier.PersonalwateraccountsmakesurethatthewaterIuseforshoweringalwaysstaysataround38degrees.
  23. 23. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|232050:Over2/3ofthepopulationinEuropeancountriesspendatleast10hoursaweekoftheirfreetimeinlearninginstitutionsinordertonetworkwiththeirfield’ssustainabilityelite.2049:Aglobalresearchandknowledgebankcreatesstandardsforallnationalandlocallevelpoliticaldecision-making.Itguaranteesascientificbasisforallgovernmentaction,andcanbeusedtovetoanydecisionthatiseco-nomically,ecologicallyorsociallyirresponsible.2047:Accesstowastebecomesoneofthekeydeter-minantsofsuccessforcompanies.Themostvaluableresourcesextractedfromwaste,e.g.rareearthmetals,areamongtheitemsthatcirculateglobally.20452050“…Inordertoliveecologicallyandeconomically,Ihavecho-senthe‘energybudgetcard’ofmasterShashangShrinivadu.Iwillfollowhistrainingsothatmyecologicalfootprintbe-comesaslightashis,andIwillsavemoneywhiledoingso.”Myhometownisrathersegregatednowa-daysasSuperChampiongroupsformtheirownsuburbs.Theydon’thavemoremate-rialwealththanothersasthey’remoreawareofsustainability.Instead,theyhavemorepoliticalandeconomicpowerandbettereducation.GlobalenergyconsumptiontargetfixedbyuserIreturnedmyoldshoestotheshoestoreandgotmystorecreditreturnedbydo-ingso.IcannowgetbrandnewshoesandIknowthatit’sgreatfortheenvironmentaswell!
  24. 24. Mobility(dailyandtourism)11000kgHousing:building2400kgProductconsumption2600kgLeisuretime1500kgFood7300kgHousing:electricity3300kgOthers900kg24|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050GatekeepersforlifestylechangesManufacturingandretailcompanies…providetransparentlifecycledataontheirproducts.Newdigitalserviceproviders…helpconsumerstotranslateopenlifecycleandfootprintdataintosmartconsumerchoices.SuperChampionleadusergroup…changethestatussystembehindconsumercultureandspreadbestpracticesonsustainablelifestyles.Urbanplanners…createurbanenviron-mentsthatattractpeopleandenabledense,sus-tainableliving.Dietaryexperts…providedetailedinforma-tiononnutrition,resourceandcost-effectivediets.Six-packofmostinfluentiallifestyletriggers1.Transparentproductdataallowspeopletounderstandtheenvironmentalcostoftheirpersonalconsumerchoicesandtheiroveralllifestyle.Comparingthesustainabilityofchoicesoffood,hous-ing,mobilityandconsumergoodsin2050isaseasyascomparingpriceswasin2012.2.Roadpricingandtheoverallriseoftransportationcostschangehousingpreferences.Peopleprefershortcommutingdistances,well-servicedneighbourhoodsandabetteraccesstospacious-ness.3.Improveddesignofpublicspacesandflatsdrawspeopletodenselypopulatedareas.Inallcoun-tries,areasaroundcitycentresturnintothemostdesirableplacestolive.Peoplearewillingtotradeoffaspaciousdwellingforthestatusandcomfortprovidedbyaflatinacentrallocation.4.Newdietaryalternativesemergefromacombinationofrisingfoodpricesandincreasedhealthconsciousness.Media,primaryeducationandcateringcompanieshelpenvironmentallyrationaldietsbecomeamainstreamlifestyleoption.5.Appsforpersonalinformatics,educationalsoftware,onlinelearningnetworksandadiversifiededucationalservicessectorbecomeattractiveandinfluencepeople’sspending.Asaresult,thereislessdesireformaterialgoods,asmorepeoplehaveexcellentskillsinmakingrationalchoices.6.Newupcyclingapproachestoconsumergoodshavechangedproductlifecycles.Allmaterialgoodsaresoldwithanadditionaldepositontheirmaterialresources,whichencouragespeopletoreturnusedmaterialstotheretailer.TheaveragematerialfootprintofaEuropeanin2050intheSingularSuperChampionsscenario(8000kgperpersoninayear)comparedtotheaveragematerialfootprintin2007(29000kg).Mobility(dailyandtourism)2800kgFood2500kgHousing:building1300kgOthers300kgHousing:electricity300kgProductconsumption500kgLeisuretime300kg
  25. 25. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|25CriticalchallengesandsolutionsinthescenarioSingularSuperChampionsQ1.Howtodoawaywithunsustainablestatussymbols?1.Apricemechanismincludesandquantifieseverything:resourceuse,pollution,health,biodiversity,etc.Itisatopmotivatorofbehaviourandinfluenceslifestyles.2.Low-cost,low-impactoptionsintermsofbothenvironmentandhealthhavebecomethesocialnorminfoodandleisureactivities.Healthymo-bilitypatternsareamajorpartofdailyexercise.Improvedinfrastructure,goodavailabilityandcompetitivepriceshavemadeiteasyforpeopletochoosehealthyoptions.Q2.Howtomanageincreasedurbanconcentrationwhiledecreasingresourceuse?1.EU-widepolicyincentivesandrisingenergypriceshavemadezeroen-ergybuildingthenorm.PeoplearepersuadedtoretrofittheirhomeswithtaxincentivesandproliferationofDo-it-Yourselfretrofitkits.2.Buildingsandinfrastructurewhicharenotusedanymore(duetoin-creasedenergyandmobilitycosts)areupcycledintonew,highlyefficientanddenseurbancentres.Peoplearethereforeincentivisedtorecycleallthematerialfromstructurestheydeconstructwhilerefurbishingtheirhomes.3.Progressivepropertytaxesandsubsidiesforconstructionofsmallflatsprovideincentivesforpeopletoreducetheirdomesticspace.Thisleadstoincreasedleisureactivityoutsidethehome.4.TheshiftininnovationandurbaninfrastructurepolicyfromcartraffictosmartmobilityincludingPRTsystems.Thesenewmobilityoptionsarebyfarthemostconvenientonesindenseurbanareaswithhighlifestylestatus.5.Pricesreducebothlong-andshort-distancetravelling.Q3.HowtomanagetheconsumptionofresourcesintermsofpowerproductionandICTproduction?1.Duetoadoptionoftaxincentives,alltheappliancesandconstructionmaterialproductsavailableinthemarketsarehighlyenergyandresourceefficient.Asaresult,peoplehaveincreasedtheenergyandresourceef-ficiencyoftheirhomes,applicationsandmobilitypatterns.2.Highlyresource-efficientwindandsolarpowerproductiondominatesen-ergyproductionastheoldenergymodeshavedisappearedduetoheavytaxationandphasingoutofsubsidies.3.InnovationpolicyacceleratestheuseofabundantinsteadofscarcematerialsforICTincombinationwithsophisticatedrecycling.Pricingmotivatespeopletoadoptnewinnovativesolutions.4.ExtremelyefficientICTsolutions(sensors,centralizedcomputing,cloudfarms)haveenabledpeopletorealisepersonaloptimisation.Optimisationofconsumptionlevelsisalsoasourceofsocialandprofessionalreward.GoverningtheCommons
  26. 26. 26|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050GoverningtheCommonsYoucanmanufactureproductsbasedonyourveryowndesignatthenearestcornershop!Theriseof3Dprintersmadeitpossibleforthefirsttimeforpeopletocontroltheirownproductionandconsumption.In2015,3Dtechnologywasseenassomethingofaniche,butfromtheearly2030sithasalteredlifestyles,andmanybusi-nessespermanently.Thedriversofmasscon-sumptioninthelatterhalfofthe20thcenturyarereplacedbyacultureof“self-creation”assistedby3Dprintersandothersimilartools.Itoffersendlesspossibilitiestomouldandre-createone’sidentity.Peoplegrowmoreawareofwhatistheirown,eitherpurchasingcarefullyselecteditemstheylikeorconstantlymoldingthesamematerialintonewversionsofgoods.Newformsofdo-it-yourselfmanufacturingwouldnotbepossiblewithouttherichpresenceofthedigitalspace.Theentirebuiltenvironmentcanbeseenthroughtwoseparatelayers,adigitalandanactual,physicalone.Billionsofmicrochipsembeddedinmachines,wallsandpavementbringanewtypeofdatatousersandcreatenewopportunitiestolivesmart,sustainablelifestylesthroughpowerfulfeedbackmechanisms.Socialnetworkscontinuetogainpowerandverysoontraditionalinstitu-tionsthatareoutsideofmeaningfulnetworksnearlyvanishfromsightformanypeople.IntheworldofGoverningtheCommons,peoplehavefoundnewrelationshipswiththeirpeersbothinvirtualandmaterialreality.Thisoffersimmenseopportunitiesfordifferenttypesofmeaningfulinteraction,botheconomicandnon-economicalike.PeoplestarttolookformoreAlternativeSustainableSociety2:Supporting8000kgSustainableLifestylesGoverningtheCommonsisascenariomostlyindigitalrealitythathelpspeopletobreakfreefrommanyculturalconstraintsand,eventually,toreachsustainability.Ubiquitouscomputingenablesthesmartuseofresourcesand,atthesametime,redirectspeople’sbehaviourandfocusofattentionfrommaterialconsumptionandtheirphysicalsurroundingstointeractioninthedigitalrealm.Peopleabandonmanyinstitu-tionsofthe20thcentury,liberatethemselvesinordertoleadmoremeaningfullivesandengageinnewformsofcollaboration.meaninginjobsandlifeingeneral.Learningnewskillsiseasywithalloftheinformation,digitallyassistedtrainingtoolsandpeersupport.Thisgivesrisetoanewkindofentrepreneurshipinwhichthenextgenerationstartstoredefinetheirexpertiseandsourceofmotivation.Multi-professionalself-employmenthasreplacedasteadyincomeandemploymentinacompanyorpublicinstitution:Thepeer-to-peer(P2P)ser-viceeconomyhasreplacedbigcorporationsandtheirofferings.Newmodelsofworkandwelfarehavebeenformed.Oncepeoplestartedseeingthecollectivepoten-tialofthenewcombinationofhighlyskilledself-starterswithdigitalcommunication,newpoliticalmovementsstartedtogainpower.Networksofpeoplewithenthusiasmtowardsasharedissuegatheredtheirskillsandresourcesanddirectedtheireffortstoexperimentingwithnewsolutions,insteadofjustcampaigningforchangethroughpoliticalstructures.Experimentingwiththehelpofthousandsofvolunteersturnedouttohavepersuasivepowerinthefieldofpolitics.Therefore,”interestnet-works”,combiningpolicywithdoingthingsgrad-ually,replacedtraditionalpartiesaspowerhousesofrepresentativedemocracy.Asaresultofthisnewcollaborationandtools,manypartsofthepoliticalagendaaretotallyreformedandpoliticalparticipationisbroughtbackintopeoples’dailylives.Thistypeof”wikidemocracy”hasrevivedtrustinpoliticsanditscapabilityofchangingsocietytowardspositivesocialchange.SingularSuperChampionsLocalLoopsGoverningtheCommonsEmpatheticCommunitiesPandemictechnologyEndemictechnologyHuman-centrismMeritocracy
  27. 27. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|27Howaresustainablelifestylesachieved?Thetransitiontopeople-powerthroughdifferentnetworks,modelsofwikidemocracyandubiqui-toustechnologyarebecomingpartofeverydaylife,alteringbehaviourtowardsmoresustainablelifestylesinthe21stcentury.Theimpactsofubiquitoustechnologycontinuetoshapepeople’sday-to-daypracticesevenmorestronglythanmanythoughtintheearly2000s.Differentapplicationsandpersonalservicesinflu-encelifestyledecisions,consumerchoicesandmotivatebehaviourchangethatsupportsthe8000kggoals.Takemobilityforinstance–oncepersonalizeddigitalservicesareinplace,co-usingofcarsandpublictransitstartstowork,basedonwhatismostpracticalforitsusers.Energyefficienthousingbecamethenormintheearly2020sasanewwaytocollectandminedata.Openenergyconsumptiondatagaveabigboosttoretrofitmarkets.Companiescouldeas-ilyidentifyinhabitantswithsignificantpotentialforefficiencygainsandsavings.Homesturnedintosmartsystemswitheasytousegadgetstocontrolenergyconsumptionfromlighting,heat-ing,useofappliancesandeventhecontentsofthefridge.Ubiquitoustechnologystartedprovid-inginstantfeedbackloopsthathelpedtochangebehaviouralchoicestowardsonesthatsupport8000kgsustainablelifestyles.Asthevirtualenvironmentismoreandmoreprominent,physicalconsumptiondecreasessig-nificantly.Urbanspaceisfreedoutofoldunusedofficesandremoteworkbecomesamainstreamalternative.Infrastructurebecomesaclosedloopsystemcombinedwithservicestakenoverbythevirtualworld.Augmentedrealityservices,alongwith3Dprinters,makeconsumptionmoresus-tainablethroughthepersonalisationanddigitali-sationoflifestyles.WhatislifelikeinGoverningtheCommons?Whatchangesbetween2012and2050?EducationThemainfocusofeducationisonPeer-to-Peerskillssharing.Learningbydoingisemphasized,initerativeways.Pandemictechnol-ogyenablesinstantfeedbackloops,whichacceleratesharingofknowledge.Focusoninformaleducationwhereclassroomsdon’texist.WorkPeople’ssourcesofincomehavefragmented.Comprehensiveuseofskillsarevalued.Everyonehassomethingtooffertosociety.Keywordsdescribingworkincludemicro-tasks,crowdsourcingandbeingusefultoone’speers.CityCitiesarebasedonalreadyexistinginfrastructure.Officeandschoolbuildingshavebeenconvertedintoflatsandpublicspaces.Urbanexperiencesareenrichedbyaugmentedreality.Peoplefindpersonalizedsolutionstofulfiltheirneedsandaspirationsonboththephysicalandvirtuallayers.HealthPeer-to-Peernetworksupportischaracteristicofbothpreventativeandreactivehealthcare.Publicfundingisprovidedforhealth-carecooperatives.Awidevarietyofhealthylifestyleshavebecomeroutinized.Digitalfeedbacktoolsareusedbyeveryone.LivingPeopleliveinsmallflatsandworkinnewofficelofts.Thedigitallayeriskeytoprovidepeoplewithqualityintheirlives.Smarthomes,austerefurnitureanddigitalservicescharacterizedomesticity.FoodFoodproductionanddistributionaremanagedbyglobalfoodsystemsandsmartfoodstoragemechanismsareinplace.Amultitudeofdietsareofferedandenergyintakeisreduced.Vegetablechoicesandsyntheticmeatsformdifferentiationsindiets.MobilityMobilityisgreatlyreducedbytheuseofdigitaltools.Commutingisminimizedandtheconstructionofnewtrafficinfrastructurehasbecomeunnecessary.Smartpublictransitandcarandridesharingarethemainformsoftransport.Consuming3D-printingpersonalizesconsumption.Materialconsumptionisreducedbyusingmodularappliances,whichenabledo-it-yourself(DIY)repairandupgradeofproducts.Highdegreesofappliancepersonalization,virtualconsumptionandrecyclablegenericmateri-alsformnewdesignandproducercultures,helpingtoreducetheoverallnumberofappliances.EconomyMicro-taskscharacterizeeconomicorganization.Newbusinessesarecreatedinandbydata-richenvironments.Opensource,opendataandfreedistributionofinformationdrivenewinnovation.Personaloptimization,DIY,peerservicesandmanufacturingaredriv-ersoftheneweconomy.SenseofsecuritySenseofsecurityisheightenedbymembershipinPeer-to-Peercommunities.Democratizeddataempowerspeople.Easyaccesstoservices,productsandglobalknowledge-basespromoteequality.Personalizedappliancesanddirectparticipationincreaseasenseofbelongingandsecurity.LeisuretimeLeisuretimeisformedaroundamultitudeofdigitalinteractions.Homeconsumption,highqualityhouseholdcapabilitiesanddigitalcrowdexperiencesarethemainwaysofspendingfreetime.GoverningtheCommonsscenarionarrative–howdiditallhappen?»The3rdindustrialrevolution»Ubitecheconomy»Betterworkcreateswell-being»WikidemocracyThesedriversaredepictedaseventsonthetimeline.
  28. 28. 28|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050The3rdindustrialrevolutionUbitecheconomyBetterworkcreateswell-beingWikidemocracy2014:Socialmediadominatesglobalnarratives.Peer-producedcontentstartstoemergeintheglobalmedia.Theeventsofthe2011ArabSpringhighlightthegrow-ingimportanceofaccessibleglobalinformationnetworks.Peoplegetincreasinglyacclimatedtotheideaofexistingonlineandbuildingtheirpersonalidentitythroughvirtualmeans.Mediamoderatedrealityhitsnewheightsastheinternetstartstodefineeverydaylifeandconnectcommunitiesworldwide,producingmoreinterest-basedsocialgroupsthatonlyeverconnectinthevirtualrealm.2013:Boycottsofpoliticstakingworld-widehelptackleclimatechange.Globaltreatiesareoutofreach,whichdrivespeopletoexpresstheirfrustrationwithgovernments’andcorporations’inabilitytogenuinelyinterveneintheincreasinglyapparenteffectsofclimatechangeandrisingresourceprices.2015:Thecrisesthatstartedin2008eventuallychangesproductionstructuresandpeople’sworkingpatterns,especiallyinmanyEuropeancountries.Fewerandfewerpeopleworkpermanentlyforonecompany.Diversificationinworkpatternsincreases.2016:Companiespromotingsustainabilitybegintodominatethemarkets:Severaltechnologycompa-niesintroduceGreenEarthpoliciesandsustainabilityindexes,astheyareseenasastheonlywaytogainaapositionasmarketleader.2017:Theuseofmeshnetworks(communitydatasystems)isspreadingtorecyclingandgreen“interestgroups”.Initiallythesesub-networksweredevelopedinLivingLabsandwereusedbytheanti-corporateactivistsofthe2010seconomicdownturn.2015:Thefirst3Dprintersforthemassmarketarrive.Atfirst,consumershavetobuyspecificallypackedmaterialsfortheprinterstowork.TheyareinspiredbyworkatMIT’sFabLabs.Soonconsumersstarttocomeupwiththeirownsolutions.2017:TheChristmasmarketsseeaflurryofexcitementover3Dprinting.2017:AEurope-widestudyrevealsthatsus-tainabilityandethicsarethemainmotivationaldriversforworkers.2018:Thankstocrowd-sourcing,weknowthattheeconomicimpactofnearlyevery-thing:Ecopidiaiscreated.EventuallythistransformsintoGEKS,theGlobalExchangeandKnowledgeSystem,atoolthatcon-nectsinformationandhelpssupportsus-tainabilityworldwide.2018:Customised3Dprintersthatcanuserecycledmaterialsstarttodominatethemarketsandmoretraditionalcom-paniesstruggletocompetewithgoodsproducedathome.2015:Aglobalnetworkofenergy-consciousconsumersstartsopenlyusingelectriccars,smartconsumptionsolutionsandtomonitortheirpersonaleverydayclimateimpact.Theseearlyadoptershelpcreategrowingplatformsforemergingtechnologiesandmomen-tumforsupportivepolicies.2019:Companieshaveembracedsustain-ablepracticesinordertoincreaseemploy-eemotivation.Stepbystepthisleadstoabehaviourchangeinpeoples’livesaswell.Workandhomebehavioursstarttooverlapwitheachother.2019:EarthtreatybyUN:nationaldemoc-racyhastorespectthelimitsoftheearth.2015Mysonneverbuysanythingthatismass-produced.Hewantstocustomiseitallbyhimself.Ithinkallofhisclothesarecustommade.“Ifoundyourflattobeveryinef-ficientinenergyuse,”statesanenergyrepairservicethathasmoni-toredmyapartment.Icanusethehighlyefficienturbanmobilitysystemtobuygroceriesandhavethemdeliveredstraighttomyhome.WhenIlookoutsidethewindow,Icanenjoygreenwallsbloomingwithflowers,thepumpcleaningthewa-ter,thesolarpanelsslowlyturningtothesun.
  29. 29. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|292020:Thebiggestcompanyonlinelaunchesits“smartlife”and“smartcities”servicesofferingseveralprogrammesthathelpmakesmartchoicesregardingthingslikehealthyandresourceefficientfood,identifyingthemostsustainablemobilitychoices,settingtheoptimaltemperatureandlightinglevelsinyourhomeordecidingwhentoretrofityourhouseorcallsomeonetorepairyourinefficientfridge.2020:Companiesredesigntheirhumanresourcesstrategiesasanincreasingnumberoftalentedindividualsstartlookingforentre-preneurialopportunities.2021:Anetworkofenergyconsciousconsumerswhohaveopenlypublishedtheirclimateimpactinformation,proposeasacitizens’acttoscaleuptheirbehaviour.HackathoneventspowersimilarcitizeninitiativesacrossallEUcountries.Thegoalistoreformtaxationsothatitsupportssustainableconsumerchoices.2024:Consumerbrandsthathavenotyetstartedtooperatesustainablystarttooverproduce.Thiscycledramaticallydecreasesthequalityoftheproductsandmorepeopleturntowardsself-customization.2023:Augmented-realityservicesbecomeavail-ablein300Europeancities.Theseservicesalterworld-viewsandlifestylessignificantlyastheneedtotravelandconstructdecreases.2025:Peopleacrossdiffer-entnetworksfindawiderangeofmeanstosecureanincomebydoingdiffer-entkindsofmicrowork.2025:Basedonthecitizens’actsoftheearly2020s,allEUcountriesreformtheirtaxationtoincludeenvironmentalimpactsinprices.2024:City3.0andthe“internetofthings”:sendinginformationtoapartmentblock-based3Dprint-ersinordertocreateanyobjectse.g.computers.Reproductionstartsatcitylevel,whichdefinesthestructureofthephysicalspace.Afriendofminecametotakealookatmyapart-mentwithhisheatcamera.ShecheckedmyenergyconsumptionandIorderedenergyretrofittingfromheronthespot!20202025I’mapartofaNo-ImpactGroupthatwasformed5yearsago.Itreallyshowedpeoplethatitispossibletolivewithinplanetarylimits.“Mykidssaythereareenoughexcit-ingthingstodiscoverindigitalschools,virtualtourismservicesandaugmentedrealitygames.Youdon’tneedtotraveltohavenewexperiencesasIoncedid.”Everyvillageandsuburbhasaremoteco-workingspacethatallowspeopletogettogether,sharethoughtsandreducetheneedtocommute.Everymunicipalitysetsupthesespacesforpeopletoworkoreventogetnewjobs,basedonearliersharedbrainstormingsessionandcooperation.2019:ThankstoGEKS,diversedataregardingpeoples’homesisgath-ered.Basedonthisdata,inhabitantsreceivefeed-backwhichencourageshomerepairesthathelptomaximizeenergyefficiency.Multi-playersopen-airgamesAugmentedrealityglasses
  30. 30. 30|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050The3rdindustrialrevolutionUbitecheconomyWikidemocracy2027:Acarsharingcompanythatusesan“access”businessmodelrivalstraditionalmarketleadersinmobilityandacquiresoneofthetraditionalcarcompanies.2027:Theexampleofpeerpowerthatproducedthefamouscitizenmovementforsustainabilityintheearly2020s,inspiresmanymoreofthesecitizens’acts.Largenumbersofpeopledraftcitizenmovementsthatarebasedonnotedbestpractices–thesemovementssoonstarttoshapemainstreamlifestyles.2027:Recognitionisgiventopeopleinwaysthatdonotmakenarrowassumptionsaboutindividual’swork.2029:80%ofEstoniancitizensownaper-sonalappliancethatoptimizestheirmobility,dietsandelectricityconsumptionthroughconstantrecognitionandfeedbackoftheirconsumerchoices.Thesepersonalappli-ances,forexample,helppeopletooptimisepublictransportationuseandenabledifferenttypesofvehicleandridesharingschemes.2030:Universaltransla-torappsmakeitpos-sibleforcommunitiesworldwidetocommu-nicatewitheveryoneeverywhere.2031:SmarttechnologiesandaugmserviceshaveproducedanewbusindoublesitssizeeachyearfortheneAccordingtostudiesthissectorempeopleEurope-wide.2026:Duetothe3D-print-ingmarket,theNasdaqsucceedstheDowJonesasthegloballyrelevantmarketindex.2026:Anewcompanythatfacilitatesdifferentmicroworkopportunities,isamongthebig-gestcompaniesinEurope.2026:Usergrouporientedhospitalsemergeandpeoplewhosharesimilargeneticriskprofilesforcertaindiseaseshelpprovidebestpossiblecare,knowledgeandreactiontimeforitscustomers.Ionlybuybookswithvirtualmoney.Itmakesnosenseformetouse“real”currenciesanymoretobuybooks.2030There’sahighefficiencyinter-modalitysystemthatletsmetravelbybike,trainandsharedcar–allwithinthesamenetwork.TheWisePersonalFoodShopper-applicationanalysesuser’sgeneticdataandproposeshealthydiets.Tobehonest,Ihaven’tseenanewbuildingconstructedinmytowninthepastfiveyears.Instead,alloftheofficebuildingshavebeenretrofit-tedforresidentialuse.“YoushouldmeetuponWednes-dayinsteadofTuesdayasthere’sverylittledifferenceinyourpreferences,butahugegapinefficiencyinregardtomobility,forinstance.”saysmyphonewhenIsetupameetingwithmyfriend.“IoftenlogontotheseparticipativegovernanceprogramsinordertomeetpeoplewithwhomIsharecommonBetterworkcreateswell-beingDeliberativeproceonlocalgovernan
  31. 31. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|312035nted-realitysssectorthattthreeyears.loyseightmillion2032:Copyrightisfoundtoberedundant,asthebestmethodtomapsolutionsistocrowdsourceinputstoproblemsfromrelevantonlinecommunities.Anexplosionofimmaterialcreativityfollows.2033:Valueiscrowdsourcedthrougheverypieceofmeaningfulormeaninglessaction.Itisgath-eredthroughdifferentsensorsandnowexceedstheamountoftimepeoplespendexplicitlywork-ing.Thevirtualenvironmenthasmadeitpossibleforneighboursnottocompetewithinthematerialrealm,whichleadsto,incredibleamountsofnewonlinecontentcreation.2036:Peoplemovebeyondthedivisionbetweenreal-lifeandvirtualidentities;whateverhappensinoneautomaticallyfollowsintotheotheraswell.People-notcorporations-areinchargeofthenetworks.“WhenIfinishpickingupandcustomis-ingitemsfromvirtualcata-logues,Icanjustgodown-stairsandpickthemupfromthe3Dprinterspace.”Anewbookcomesoutdescribinghowthelastofthepoliticalpartiesisstillhangingoninthere.Ifindthesepartiestobearem-nantofpast.Nowpoliticaldecisionsstartfrom,andareintimatelylinkedto,everydaypractices.Thisoldofficebuild-ingisrenovatedandwillbecomeahighlyenergyefficienthomeformanyfamilies.Theseareamongthemostwantedhomesavailable!3Dprintingandself-prototypingfacilities.2034:Theclimatechangedenialofthe21stcenturyisviewedassome-thingcomparabletothewitchhuntsofthe17thcentury.Myfriendwho’sbeenpartiallydisabledforthepast10yearsisanactiveparticipantinso-ciety,asdigitaltoolshaveempoweredhimtoaccessinformationandservicesasefficientlyasanyonecouldimagine.Idon’tevenhavetouserepairservicesasIcanjustupgrademymodularappliancebyprintingoffanewpartforit.“Ispendmostofmytimeveryefficiently.Evenwhentravelling,I’mcompletingamul-titudeofdifferentmicrotasks.”2033:Usergrouporientedhospitalsinitiateacitizens’acttoallocatemostavailablehealthcarefundstosupport-ingthesehospitalsspecifically.interests.Weregularlyproposeinitiativesthatlaterbecomethebasisofnewpolicies.”Localcitizenshipnetworkssses
  32. 32. 32|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050The3rdindustrialrevolutionUbitecheconomyBetterworkcreateswell-beingWikidemocracy2044:Citizenmovementsreplacetraditionalpoliticalmechanismsindecision-making.Peer-to-peerpowerformsthebasisof“wikidemocracy.”2045:Newlysetstandardsareformedfordigitalnetworkstoserveasaplatformforprovid-ingmanufacturingblueprints.Theinternetisoneofthesead-hocnetworksofknowledgeexchange.2042:Aglobalactforself-surveil-lancetakesplace,initiatedbymanyofthepeer-to-peernetworks.Everydigitalitemconnectedtotheglobalnetworkoperateswithinsustainableparameters.Exceedingthesepa-rametersisonlypossibleoutsidethedigitalrealm(whichforthemajorityofthepeopleisimpossible).“OurActiveHouseisconstantlyoptimisingthewaywelive,fromsuggestinggreencookingreci-pesandautomaticallyprevent-ingfoodwastetoimplementingEnergyWatcherdietingpro-gramsforthefamily.”2040:Differentinterestgroupsprovideblueprintsforindividualstogatherresourcesand“print”theirownitems,althoughinhighlycustomisedways.Mostcorpora-tionshavebeensucceededbysuchinterestgroups.2040:Sustainabilityisnoteventalkedaboutanymoreasby2034globalknowledgeofwhatcanandcannotbedonewithintheboundariesofoneEarthbecameapparenttoeveryone.Whatwereseenassustainablelifestylesin2012aresimplyrationalchoicesin2040.20402045Iamamemberofahealthcen-trewithmypeers.ThisspecificcentreisoptimisedforpeoplewhohavethesamegeneticriskprofilesasIdo.Sensorsandfeed-backsystemsSituatedadviseonenergyconsumptionImonitormyhealthconstantlythroughthesesensorsthatareinstalledinmyarm.It’sarelief.Whateverhappens,myhospitalisawareofmyconditionandIsavealotofmoney,energyandeffortsinceIdon’thavetodotheevaluationsmyself.Icantrustmydoctorstodothem–nomorefutilevisitstothehospital!
  33. 33. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|332046:Thevalueoflifecomesfromnetworks.Toexististobepartofaspecificnetwork.Peoplebuildtheirreputationsvirtuallyandthosewithagoodreputationcanjoinnetworksmoreeasilythanothers.Whiletherulesandguidelinesofdifferentcommunitiesdiffer,interact-inginthevirtualrealmisoneofthebasicformsofhumanbehaviour.2049:Consumersrecycleeverythingintheir“printers.”TheonlytraditionalfactoryleftinEuropeproducesapartmentblock-scale3Dprinters.Idesignmyhome’snewinteriorbyputtingmyoldchairintomyprintersothatIcangetanewoneasaresult.2050TheDomesticFeedbackServiceallowsseniorsinhouseholdstouseuserfriendlysmarthomesolutionstocontrolandeducatetheirfami-liesonsustainableliving.MywifeandIhavesomeoldcookingbooksthatweuseforhomedecorationaswehavenootherpracticaluseforthem.Itamusesusthatsomuchem-phasiswasonceplacedontheprepara-tionoffood.Instead,wejustuseour3Dprinterstoprintsyntheticfoodthathasveryhighnutritionvalue.“Myfatherstudiedbio-engineeringandorganicfarmingandnowheisacook.Everymorninghelooksformicro-joboffershecanrespondto,fromcoachingyoungfarmerstodoingsustainableassessmentsofthefoodchain.Andhelovesit!”Workingagendacomposedeveryday.Onlinetaskoffers
  34. 34. 34|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050Mobility(dailyandtourism)11000kgHousing:building2400kgProductconsumption2600kgLeisuretime1500kgFood7300kgHousing:electricity3300kgOthers900kgLeisuretimeConsumernetworks…firstorganiseintodecisionmakersthataffectlocalandglobalpolicies.Agilemarketingagencies…makeuseofthepeerinformationavailableinpurchasingdecisions.Constructioncompanies…startsellingsmallscaleenergyretrofittingservicestohomeownersGamingindustry…growsinsignificanceandturnsintoagiantcrowdsourc-ingmechanismthatcombinesplayingandwork.Smartmobilitycompanies…comeupwithpersonalizedsolu-tionsthatletpeopleoptimizetheirmobilitybasedontheirneeds.GatekeepersforlifestylechangesSix-packofmostinfluentiallifestyletriggers1.Allappliancesandbuildingsareequippedwiththetechnologytoadvisetheirusersonsmartuseandmaintenancerequirements.Smart,energyefficientuseisthedefaultoption.Withthehelpofdiverseandplentifuldataabouttheirownandtheirpeers’homes,peoplereceivefeedbackthatencouragesthemtorepairtheirhomessotheyreachmaximumenergyefficiency.2.Smartmobilityserviceschangethewaypeopleplantheirtime,andhowtheycombineroutesandmodesoftransport.Theseserviceshelptooptimizepublictransportationuseandenablethede-velopmentofvehicleandridesharingschemes.3.UbiquitoustechnologiesgiverisetoanewecosystemofPeer-to-Peer—servicesthatareavailableforpeoplewhenevertheyneedorwantthem.Theseserviceswithretrofittinghomesorchoosingsustainabledietaryoptions,amongotherthings.4.Anewgenerationofvirtualrealityandonlinecommunitiesbecomespopular,whichmeansade-creaseinneedsforlargelivingspaces,furnitureandevenfoodstuffs.5.Thescaleupof3D-printingchangesthewaypeopleseekself-actualisation.Consuminggoodsdesignedandmadebysomeoneelseisnolongerthemostelaboratewaytoexpressone’sidentityandstyle.Instead,peoplecollectivelydesignthegoodstheydesireandwanttobeidentifiedwith.6.Onlinenetworksbuiltonasharedinterestinlifestyleissuesenablepeopletorealisetheirpotentialandtoconstitutethemselvesasgroupswithpoliticalpower.Theexampleandsupportofothernet-workmembersencouragesexperimentationwithnewsustainablelifestylepatterns.Graduallythesenetworksandexperimentsgrowintomovementsthatstartreformingthepoliticalagenda.TheaveragematerialfootprintofaEuropeanin2050intheGoverningtheCommonsscenario(8000kgperpersoninayear)comparedtotheaveragematerialfootprintin2007(29000kg).Mobility(dailyandtourism)2700kgFood2500kgHousing:building1400kgOthers200kgHousing:electricity300kgProductconsumption500kgLeisuretime400kg
  35. 35. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|35LocalLoopsCriticalchallengesandsolutionsinthescenarioGoverningtheCommonsQ1.HowtominimizetheconsumptionofresourcesintermsofpowerproductionandICTproduction?1.EnergyisproducedfromdiverserenewablesourcesanddistributedwiththehelpofaEurope-widesupergrid.2.Fossilfuelsphasedoutfollowingaglobaltreaty.Lotsofplayersinenergymarketsharnessingvarioussources.3.Virtualservices,entertainmentandcommunitiesaresoattractivethatithasreducedtheneedforspaceinhomes.Ubiquitoustechnologieshaveenabledgrowthofservicesthatincreasesmartandefficientuseofhomes.4.PeopleuselessICTappliances,becausethereisonlyneedforonedeviceyoualwayscarry.Modularappli-ancesandcentralizedcloudfarmswithoptimallocationensurelonglife-cycleforappliances,aswellasefficientresourceuse.Q2.Howtolimitmobilityandtheenvironmentalimpactsofinformationtechnologyinaubiquitoussociety?1.Virtualconsumption,personaloptimizationanddirectbehaviouralfeedbackreducecommutingandtravelneeds.Meetingvirtuallyischeaper,smarterandcooler.2.Althoughpeopledon’tfeelthereismuchneedfortravellinganymore,smartandflexiblepublictransport,car-sharingandslowairtravel(e.g.solarZeppelines)areinusetosomeextent.3.Citiesaredense.Therearefewnewbuildingsandretrofittedflats.Thebasicinfrastructureofthe2010’sremains.4.Changingproductionandemploymentpatternsmakealargepartofofficebuildingstockredundantintheirprevioususe.Thishasenabledsmarturbangrowth:af-fordablenewhomesincentrallocations.Q3.Howtomakesurethatdecentralizedproductionofitemspromotessustainability?1.Although3Dcomponentprintingand3Dshoppingcul-turehavebecomepopular,virtualconsumptionensuresthatpeopleownonlyasmallamountoftailoredpersonalgoods.Thesearemainlymadeoutofrecycledmateri-alsinordertocomplywiththeglobaltreatyonresourceefficiency.
  36. 36. 36|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050LocalLoopsThedramaticriseofresourcepricesandthescar-cityofoilfinallyarrivesinlate2010s,thoughitcomesasagreatsurprisetomany.Severalcom-panies,politiciansandcitizenswereill-preparedforaneraofradicalriseofresourcepricesandoilscarcity.Theriseoflogisticscostsmeantashifttowardslocalproduction.Thismakespeopleviewlocalresources,likesoil,inanewlight.Asareactiontotheneweraofgrowingresourcepricesinthe2020s,therewasacitizenuprising,whichforcedseveralEuropeanstatesandtheEUtolaunchnewprogrammestore-definepolicystructurestosupporttheresourceconstrainedreality.Thenewprogrammeswerebasedonanideaof“localresourceloops”,referringtolocalregionsthatareself-sufficientinkeyresources.Theseprogrammesfoundinspirationintransi-tiontownandeco-villageexperimentsthathadbeengrowingsteadilyinthepreviousdecades.Thisdoesnotmeanthatallproductionoffoodorenergynecessarilyhappenswithinthecitylimits,butratherthatcitieshavemanagementsystemshelpingtomapresourceflowsandmaintainclosetieswithproductionfacilitiescreatingaLocalLoopwiththem.IntheworldofLocalLoopsscientificexpertisestilldominatesglobalstructures.Thetechnologi-calandscientificknowledgebaseisglobalandevenlydistributed.Buttheemphasisofmanybusinessesandprofessionsisonuser-centreddesignthatproducessmartandcreativelocaladaptations.Intheirheartsandmindspeoplestillrecognizetheirdependenceonglobalnetworks,buttheyvaluelocalproductsandculturemorethanperhapsprecedinggenerationsdid.Con-sumerchoicesbecomemoreuniform–onlyafewwouldbuyfurniture,clothes,cheeseorcere-alsproducedoutsidetheirLocalLoop.Foreigndesignsandflavoursjustarenotappealingtotheaverageconsumeranymore.Thisallmarksanewphaseofglobalcultureandglobalization.Allloopshavetheirowncombinationofinflu-entialprofessionalgroups.Localprofessionalguildsformthecoreoflocalinnovationsystemsandcompetitiveness.Theyarealsoanextremelyimportantforceinpoliticshelpingtoprepareleg-islationthatisbasedonlocalresources,medicalpracticesandtheboundarieswithinwhichglobalsustainabilityispossible.InsocietiesofLocalLoopsworkhasaspecialvalue,partlybecauselocalvaluechainsareveryclear.Peopleunderstandthattheyaredepend-entoneachothers’skills.Thisunderlinesthateveryone’sworkismeaningful.Othersknowthattheyneedyourwork;yourworksolvescommonissues.Theboundariesofworkandfreetimeareunclear.Howaresustainablelifestylesachieved?Peoplespendmostoftheirtimeaddingvaluetotheircommunities,whichissomethingtheycanbestdothroughengaginginguildsasmembers.AflourishingservicesectorwithintheloopshelpspeopletooutsourceeverydayroutinessuchasSingularSuperChampionsLocalLoopsGoverningtheCommonsEmpatheticCommunitiesPandemictechnologyEndemictechnologyHuman-centrismMeritocracyAlternativeSustainableSociety3:Supporting8000kgSustainableLifestylesLocalLoopsisascenarioinwhicharadicalenergycrisisforcessocietiestore-evaluatefun-damentallythefoundationsoftheirwell-being.Energyandresourcesystemsareincreasinglyseenthough“LocalLoops”,whichisatechni-calconceptthatcanbeappliedinthecontextoflocalandregionalproductioncycles.Peo-plebuildtheirlifestyleandwaysofbelongingaroundtheirwork,whiletechnologyisbetteradaptedthroughlocaldesignsolutions,whichcreateroomfornewkindsofprofessionalism.Anewethosofcraftsmanshipandprofessionalcommunitiesshapethewaypeoplelive,organ-izetheirworkandspendtheirleisuretime.

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