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GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
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Presentation on GeoDesign given at the International Symposium on Digital Earth / WALIS Forum 25th August 2011- Perth

Presentation on GeoDesign given at the International Symposium on Digital Earth / WALIS Forum 25th August 2011- Perth

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  • This seems like a long time away…
  • By then Perth will have a population of at least 3.5 million people
  • Just for comparison that is the population of Melbourne
  • Now after a little research I managed to find out that the largest crowd ever was New Year Eve 1995 on Copacabana Beach – yes you guessed it 3.5 million people!
  • But the amazing thing was that they came to see this guy!
  • Back to 2050
  • That’s another Perth to build… the first one took 182 years to get to the same size and we have less than 40.
  • Now lets look at our population growth – it has been marked by three events: 1890 – Gold Rush 1960’s – Iron Ore Now – Resources ‘Growth’We can’t be completely sure of where the population will head in the next 40 years – however since this forecast has been done it has gone up not down. Mainly driven by…
  • Mining (Rio Tinto IO West Angelas)
  • So looking back where we came from – this is the extent of Perth in 1925…
  • …and in 1974 (when I was born) – almost 40 year ago
  • Where we have grown to now…
  • And where we might be headed…
  • Well it must be true if it is in the papers (or online).
  • Well lets have a look at a shorter timeframe
  • 2031 is the current planning horizon that is being focused on here in Perth – a mere 20 years from now.
  • If we look at vision of the future this is sometimes what you get… this was a vision of Perth back in 1929.
  • Things were different then – this is Fraser Ave in Kings Park… 1929
  • Now going back to the blimps and planes in the vision of Perth I did some field work and on Saturday I went up to Kings Park to see if I could see any…
  • I didn’t see a single Blimp or flying car…
  • Not even an old fashioned one!
  • Ah yes back to 2031 – in the next 20 years Perth will have an additional…
  • 500,000 people in population (i.e. making it 2.2 million) with…
  • Newcastle… in NSW
  • Grenoble in France
  • Manchester in the UK
  • …and Tucson in Arizona – USA.
  • The challenge is that even with the Directions 2031 plan it assumes that there will be 53% Greenfields Development…
  • Or 2 City of Stirlings
  • i.e. rolling out more suburbs to the north and…
  • …to the south
  • So this is what it might look like…. BUT…
  • Currently we are doing 68% Greenfields Development – which equates to 223,040 houses
  • Or 2 City of Stirlings
  • 2 and a half City of Stirlings!
  • And how do us spatial professionals fit in to planning for the future…

GeoDesign for Sustainable Development Presentation Transcript

  • 1. GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
    Tom Gardner
  • 2. 2050
  • 3. 3.5 million
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. 2050
  • 8. +1.8 million
  • 9. You Are Here
    1960 Iron Ore
    1890 Gold
  • 10.
  • 11. 1925
  • 12. 1974
  • 13. 2010
  • 14. 2050 ?
  • 15.
  • 16. 2031
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. 2031
  • 24. 500,000
    People
    328,000
    Houses
  • 25. Newcastle
  • 26. Grenoble
  • 27. Manchester
  • 28. Tucson
  • 29. 53%
    Greenfield Development
    173,840 Houses
  • 30. City of Stirling x 2
  • 31. 40km North
  • 32. 80km South
  • 33.
  • 34. 68%
    Greenfield Development
    223,040 Houses
  • 35. City of Stirling x 2.5
  • 36.
  • 37. "GeoDesign is a design and planning method which tightly couples the creation of design proposals with impact simulations informed by geographic contexts"
  • 38. Old School
    LINEAR
  • 39. New Paradigm
  • 40. So Where Does GeoDesign Come into Play in Perth?
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45. Models = Repeatable Analysis
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50. Population Density: 20,800 / sq km
  • 51. Population Density:
    300 / sq km
  • 52.
  • 53. Major Road Network
  • 54. Residential Areas within 100m of Major Roads
  • 55. Current Population
  • 56. Projected Population
  • 57. Current Population
  • 58. Projected Population
  • 59.
  • 60. GIS is more than this
  • 61. Tom Gardner
    tgardner@esriaustralia.com.au
    Thank you