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GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
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GeoDesign for Sustainable Development

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Presentation on GeoDesign given at the International Symposium on Digital Earth / WALIS Forum 25th August 2011- Perth

Presentation on GeoDesign given at the International Symposium on Digital Earth / WALIS Forum 25th August 2011- Perth

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  • This seems like a long time away…
  • By then Perth will have a population of at least 3.5 million people
  • Just for comparison that is the population of Melbourne
  • Now after a little research I managed to find out that the largest crowd ever was New Year Eve 1995 on Copacabana Beach – yes you guessed it 3.5 million people!
  • But the amazing thing was that they came to see this guy!
  • Back to 2050
  • That’s another Perth to build… the first one took 182 years to get to the same size and we have less than 40.
  • Now lets look at our population growth – it has been marked by three events: 1890 – Gold Rush 1960’s – Iron Ore Now – Resources ‘Growth’We can’t be completely sure of where the population will head in the next 40 years – however since this forecast has been done it has gone up not down. Mainly driven by…
  • Mining (Rio Tinto IO West Angelas)
  • So looking back where we came from – this is the extent of Perth in 1925…
  • …and in 1974 (when I was born) – almost 40 year ago
  • Where we have grown to now…
  • And where we might be headed…
  • Well it must be true if it is in the papers (or online).
  • Well lets have a look at a shorter timeframe
  • 2031 is the current planning horizon that is being focused on here in Perth – a mere 20 years from now.
  • If we look at vision of the future this is sometimes what you get… this was a vision of Perth back in 1929.
  • Things were different then – this is Fraser Ave in Kings Park… 1929
  • Now going back to the blimps and planes in the vision of Perth I did some field work and on Saturday I went up to Kings Park to see if I could see any…
  • I didn’t see a single Blimp or flying car…
  • Not even an old fashioned one!
  • Ah yes back to 2031 – in the next 20 years Perth will have an additional…
  • 500,000 people in population (i.e. making it 2.2 million) with…
  • Newcastle… in NSW
  • Grenoble in France
  • Manchester in the UK
  • …and Tucson in Arizona – USA.
  • The challenge is that even with the Directions 2031 plan it assumes that there will be 53% Greenfields Development…
  • Or 2 City of Stirlings
  • i.e. rolling out more suburbs to the north and…
  • …to the south
  • So this is what it might look like…. BUT…
  • Currently we are doing 68% Greenfields Development – which equates to 223,040 houses
  • Or 2 City of Stirlings
  • 2 and a half City of Stirlings!
  • And how do us spatial professionals fit in to planning for the future…

GeoDesign for Sustainable Development GeoDesign for Sustainable Development Presentation Transcript

  • GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
    Tom Gardner
  • 2050
  • 3.5 million
  • 2050
  • +1.8 million
  • You Are Here
    1960 Iron Ore
    1890 Gold
  • 1925
  • 1974
  • 2010
  • 2050 ?
  • 2031
  • 2031
  • 500,000
    People
    328,000
    Houses
  • Newcastle
  • Grenoble
  • Manchester
  • Tucson
  • 53%
    Greenfield Development
    173,840 Houses
  • City of Stirling x 2
  • 40km North
  • 80km South
  • 68%
    Greenfield Development
    223,040 Houses
  • City of Stirling x 2.5
  • "GeoDesign is a design and planning method which tightly couples the creation of design proposals with impact simulations informed by geographic contexts"
  • Old School
    LINEAR
  • New Paradigm
  • So Where Does GeoDesign Come into Play in Perth?
  • Models = Repeatable Analysis
  • Population Density: 20,800 / sq km
  • Population Density:
    300 / sq km
  • Major Road Network
  • Residential Areas within 100m of Major Roads
  • Current Population
  • Projected Population
  • Current Population
  • Projected Population
  • GIS is more than this
  • Tom Gardner
    tgardner@esriaustralia.com.au
    Thank you