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GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
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GeoDesign for Sustainable Development

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Presentation on GeoDesign given at the International Symposium on Digital Earth / WALIS Forum 25th August 2011- Perth

Presentation on GeoDesign given at the International Symposium on Digital Earth / WALIS Forum 25th August 2011- Perth

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  • This seems like a long time away…
  • By then Perth will have a population of at least 3.5 million people
  • Just for comparison that is the population of Melbourne
  • Now after a little research I managed to find out that the largest crowd ever was New Year Eve 1995 on Copacabana Beach – yes you guessed it 3.5 million people!
  • But the amazing thing was that they came to see this guy!
  • Back to 2050
  • That’s another Perth to build… the first one took 182 years to get to the same size and we have less than 40.
  • Now lets look at our population growth – it has been marked by three events: 1890 – Gold Rush 1960’s – Iron Ore Now – Resources ‘Growth’We can’t be completely sure of where the population will head in the next 40 years – however since this forecast has been done it has gone up not down. Mainly driven by…
  • Mining (Rio Tinto IO West Angelas)
  • So looking back where we came from – this is the extent of Perth in 1925…
  • …and in 1974 (when I was born) – almost 40 year ago
  • Where we have grown to now…
  • And where we might be headed…
  • Well it must be true if it is in the papers (or online).
  • Well lets have a look at a shorter timeframe
  • 2031 is the current planning horizon that is being focused on here in Perth – a mere 20 years from now.
  • If we look at vision of the future this is sometimes what you get… this was a vision of Perth back in 1929.
  • Things were different then – this is Fraser Ave in Kings Park… 1929
  • Now going back to the blimps and planes in the vision of Perth I did some field work and on Saturday I went up to Kings Park to see if I could see any…
  • I didn’t see a single Blimp or flying car…
  • Not even an old fashioned one!
  • Ah yes back to 2031 – in the next 20 years Perth will have an additional…
  • 500,000 people in population (i.e. making it 2.2 million) with…
  • Newcastle… in NSW
  • Grenoble in France
  • Manchester in the UK
  • …and Tucson in Arizona – USA.
  • The challenge is that even with the Directions 2031 plan it assumes that there will be 53% Greenfields Development…
  • Or 2 City of Stirlings
  • i.e. rolling out more suburbs to the north and…
  • …to the south
  • So this is what it might look like…. BUT…
  • Currently we are doing 68% Greenfields Development – which equates to 223,040 houses
  • Or 2 City of Stirlings
  • 2 and a half City of Stirlings!
  • And how do us spatial professionals fit in to planning for the future…
  • Transcript

    • 1. GeoDesign for Sustainable Development<br />Tom Gardner<br />
    • 2. 2050<br />
    • 3. 3.5 million<br />
    • 4.
    • 5.
    • 6.
    • 7. 2050<br />
    • 8. +1.8 million<br />
    • 9. You Are Here<br />1960 Iron Ore<br />1890 Gold<br />
    • 10.
    • 11. 1925<br />
    • 12. 1974<br />
    • 13. 2010<br />
    • 14. 2050 ?<br />
    • 15.
    • 16. 2031<br />
    • 17.
    • 18.
    • 19.
    • 20.
    • 21.
    • 22.
    • 23. 2031<br />
    • 24. 500,000<br />People<br />328,000<br />Houses<br />
    • 25. Newcastle<br />
    • 26. Grenoble<br />
    • 27. Manchester<br />
    • 28. Tucson<br />
    • 29. 53%<br />Greenfield Development<br />173,840 Houses<br />
    • 30. City of Stirling x 2<br />
    • 31. 40km North<br />
    • 32. 80km South<br />
    • 33.
    • 34. 68%<br />Greenfield Development<br />223,040 Houses<br />
    • 35. City of Stirling x 2.5<br />
    • 36.
    • 37. "GeoDesign is a design and planning method which tightly couples the creation of design proposals with impact simulations informed by geographic contexts"<br />
    • 38. Old School<br />LINEAR<br />
    • 39. New Paradigm<br />
    • 40. So Where Does GeoDesign Come into Play in Perth?<br />
    • 41.
    • 42.
    • 43.
    • 44.
    • 45. Models = Repeatable Analysis <br />
    • 46.
    • 47.
    • 48.
    • 49.
    • 50. Population Density: 20,800 / sq km<br />
    • 51. Population Density:<br />300 / sq km<br />
    • 52.
    • 53. Major Road Network<br />
    • 54. Residential Areas within 100m of Major Roads<br />
    • 55. Current Population<br />
    • 56. Projected Population<br />
    • 57. Current Population<br />
    • 58. Projected Population<br />
    • 59.
    • 60. GIS is more than this<br />
    • 61. Tom Gardner<br />tgardner@esriaustralia.com.au<br />Thank you<br />

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