GeoDesign for Sustainable Development

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Presentation on GeoDesign given at the International Symposium on Digital Earth / WALIS Forum 25th August 2011- Perth

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  • This seems like a long time away…
  • By then Perth will have a population of at least 3.5 million people
  • Just for comparison that is the population of Melbourne
  • Now after a little research I managed to find out that the largest crowd ever was New Year Eve 1995 on Copacabana Beach – yes you guessed it 3.5 million people!
  • But the amazing thing was that they came to see this guy!
  • Back to 2050
  • That’s another Perth to build… the first one took 182 years to get to the same size and we have less than 40.
  • Now lets look at our population growth – it has been marked by three events: 1890 – Gold Rush 1960’s – Iron Ore Now – Resources ‘Growth’We can’t be completely sure of where the population will head in the next 40 years – however since this forecast has been done it has gone up not down. Mainly driven by…
  • Mining (Rio Tinto IO West Angelas)
  • So looking back where we came from – this is the extent of Perth in 1925…
  • …and in 1974 (when I was born) – almost 40 year ago
  • Where we have grown to now…
  • And where we might be headed…
  • Well it must be true if it is in the papers (or online).
  • Well lets have a look at a shorter timeframe
  • 2031 is the current planning horizon that is being focused on here in Perth – a mere 20 years from now.
  • If we look at vision of the future this is sometimes what you get… this was a vision of Perth back in 1929.
  • Things were different then – this is Fraser Ave in Kings Park… 1929
  • Now going back to the blimps and planes in the vision of Perth I did some field work and on Saturday I went up to Kings Park to see if I could see any…
  • I didn’t see a single Blimp or flying car…
  • Not even an old fashioned one!
  • Ah yes back to 2031 – in the next 20 years Perth will have an additional…
  • 500,000 people in population (i.e. making it 2.2 million) with…
  • Newcastle… in NSW
  • Grenoble in France
  • Manchester in the UK
  • …and Tucson in Arizona – USA.
  • The challenge is that even with the Directions 2031 plan it assumes that there will be 53% Greenfields Development…
  • Or 2 City of Stirlings
  • i.e. rolling out more suburbs to the north and…
  • …to the south
  • So this is what it might look like…. BUT…
  • Currently we are doing 68% Greenfields Development – which equates to 223,040 houses
  • Or 2 City of Stirlings
  • 2 and a half City of Stirlings!
  • And how do us spatial professionals fit in to planning for the future…
  • GeoDesign for Sustainable Development

    1. 1. GeoDesign for Sustainable Development<br />Tom Gardner<br />
    2. 2. 2050<br />
    3. 3. 3.5 million<br />
    4. 4.
    5. 5.
    6. 6.
    7. 7. 2050<br />
    8. 8. +1.8 million<br />
    9. 9. You Are Here<br />1960 Iron Ore<br />1890 Gold<br />
    10. 10.
    11. 11. 1925<br />
    12. 12. 1974<br />
    13. 13. 2010<br />
    14. 14. 2050 ?<br />
    15. 15.
    16. 16. 2031<br />
    17. 17.
    18. 18.
    19. 19.
    20. 20.
    21. 21.
    22. 22.
    23. 23. 2031<br />
    24. 24. 500,000<br />People<br />328,000<br />Houses<br />
    25. 25. Newcastle<br />
    26. 26. Grenoble<br />
    27. 27. Manchester<br />
    28. 28. Tucson<br />
    29. 29. 53%<br />Greenfield Development<br />173,840 Houses<br />
    30. 30. City of Stirling x 2<br />
    31. 31. 40km North<br />
    32. 32. 80km South<br />
    33. 33.
    34. 34. 68%<br />Greenfield Development<br />223,040 Houses<br />
    35. 35. City of Stirling x 2.5<br />
    36. 36.
    37. 37. "GeoDesign is a design and planning method which tightly couples the creation of design proposals with impact simulations informed by geographic contexts"<br />
    38. 38. Old School<br />LINEAR<br />
    39. 39. New Paradigm<br />
    40. 40. So Where Does GeoDesign Come into Play in Perth?<br />
    41. 41.
    42. 42.
    43. 43.
    44. 44.
    45. 45. Models = Repeatable Analysis <br />
    46. 46.
    47. 47.
    48. 48.
    49. 49.
    50. 50. Population Density: 20,800 / sq km<br />
    51. 51. Population Density:<br />300 / sq km<br />
    52. 52.
    53. 53. Major Road Network<br />
    54. 54. Residential Areas within 100m of Major Roads<br />
    55. 55. Current Population<br />
    56. 56. Projected Population<br />
    57. 57. Current Population<br />
    58. 58. Projected Population<br />
    59. 59.
    60. 60. GIS is more than this<br />
    61. 61. Tom Gardner<br />tgardner@esriaustralia.com.au<br />Thank you<br />

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