Global Vision Advisors offers modern wealth management services for today’s changing markets.
Cycles of Inflation
 
 
RUNAWAY INFLATION DISINFLATION DEFLATION START OF INFLATION Bullish for  Stocks & Bonds Bullish for  Stocks & Bonds Bearis...
Not a good time for the buy & hold! Average Bull Market = 18.5 Years  Average Bear Market = 17 Years  P/E:  44.2 P/CF:  1....
 
 
U.S. Debt Since 1929
Total U.S. Debt, 2008 Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Report Government $14Trn Financial $17Trn Corporate $11Trn Con...
Consumer Debt
Negative Equity by Mortgage Sector Source: Deutsche Bank August 5, 2009 Report Estimated percent of borrowers with negativ...
 
Demographics
Spending Average Annual Family Spending by Age (5-year age groups) 46-50 $5,000 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 $10,000 $15,000 $20,0...
Immigration Adjusted Birth Index Thousands
Immigration-adjusted Births Lagged for Peak Spending Dow Adjusted for Inflation The Spending Wave Births Lagged for Peak i...
Innovation Growth Boom Maturity Boom Shake-Out Spending Wave Innovation/ Inflation 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038...
Japanese Stock Market vs. Japanese Net Worth 1984 – 2005  Source: Japanese Family Income and Expenditure Survey
Why this is not the onset of a new secular bull market  - Comparisons with August 1982 -  From David Rosenburg: •  P/E Mul...
Tactical Investment Portfolio For The Global Vision Advisors' Tactical Investment Portfolio is designed to capitalize on c...
 
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Global Vision Advisors presentation 12 14-09

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  • Global Vision Advisors is a full service wealth advisory firm providing individuals and families with sophisticated financial counsel. The firm is unique in its ability to deliver comprehensive and high quality financial services normally associated with larger firms in a more client centered and modern approach. Two perspectives: Global Macro Economic view Value of using Legacy Model
  • Potential wolves
  • Pause –One potential view with lots of merit. In most of academia
  • R we done yet
  • 1950 1 st decline in six decade. Consumer doc communication.
  • Drivers of these larger cycles. Three driver. Going from historical to current. Now lets look out a little bit further into the future.
  • Global Vision Advisors presentation 12 14-09

    1. 1. Global Vision Advisors offers modern wealth management services for today’s changing markets.
    2. 2. Cycles of Inflation
    3. 5. RUNAWAY INFLATION DISINFLATION DEFLATION START OF INFLATION Bullish for Stocks & Bonds Bullish for Stocks & Bonds Bearish for Stocks & Bonds Bearish for Stocks & Bonds <ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Real estate soars </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Interest rates soar </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Moderate debt builds </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stock make no progress </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Gold & commodities soar </li></ul><ul><li>Capital good sector overbuilds </li></ul><ul><li>Bond prices rise </li></ul><ul><li>Interest rates fall </li></ul><ul><li>Stock market booms </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation rate drops fast </li></ul><ul><li>Commodity prices drop </li></ul><ul><li>Stocks peak then crash </li></ul><ul><li>Debt rises to unsustainable levels </li></ul><ul><li>Currency crisis, interest rates spike as credit contracts </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer confidence drops </li></ul><ul><li>Debt repudiation </li></ul><ul><li>(bankruptcies) </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment high </li></ul><ul><li>Run from paper </li></ul><ul><li>money to gold </li></ul><ul><li>Employment & consumer confidence increases </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Inflation increases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Stocks rise from low levels </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Early debt buildup </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>AUTUMN SUMMER SPRING WINTER
    4. 6. Not a good time for the buy & hold! Average Bull Market = 18.5 Years Average Bear Market = 17 Years P/E: 44.2 P/CF: 1.45 Record: Price to Book Insider Selling Debt Levels Spending, etc. Spring Autumn Winter Summer Spring Autumn Winter Summer Autumn Winter Summer Spring Summer Winter Autumn BEAR
    5. 9. U.S. Debt Since 1929
    6. 10. Total U.S. Debt, 2008 Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Report Government $14Trn Financial $17Trn Corporate $11Trn Consumer $14Trn
    7. 11. Consumer Debt
    8. 12. Negative Equity by Mortgage Sector Source: Deutsche Bank August 5, 2009 Report Estimated percent of borrowers with negative equity, by product Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Projected Conforming 16% 41% Prime jumbo 29% 46% Alt-A 49% 66% Subprime 50% 69% Option ARM 77% 89% Total mortgage market 26% 48%
    9. 14. Demographics
    10. 15. Spending Average Annual Family Spending by Age (5-year age groups) 46-50 $5,000 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 Age $35,000 $40,000
    11. 16. Immigration Adjusted Birth Index Thousands
    12. 17. Immigration-adjusted Births Lagged for Peak Spending Dow Adjusted for Inflation The Spending Wave Births Lagged for Peak in Family Spending
    13. 18. Innovation Growth Boom Maturity Boom Shake-Out Spending Wave Innovation/ Inflation 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 We Are Here Innovation Inflation Disinflation Deflation Stable Prices Inflation Stable Prices 80-Year New Economy Cycle
    14. 19. Japanese Stock Market vs. Japanese Net Worth 1984 – 2005 Source: Japanese Family Income and Expenditure Survey
    15. 20. Why this is not the onset of a new secular bull market - Comparisons with August 1982 - From David Rosenburg: • P/E Multiples were 8x, not 26x. • Dividend yields were 6%, not sub-2%. • The stock market was trading at a discount to book, not a 2x premium. • Monetary policy was aimed at reducing money growth and inflation rates, not creating both as is the case now. • Fiscal policy was aimed at reducing nondefense spending, not accelerating it. • Deficits were peaking and coming down, not surging to 10%+ relative to GDP. • Global trade barriers were being torn down; not erected. • Deregulation back then was in; today it is all about re-regulation and government ownership. • Union membership was on the way down; today it is back on the rise. • Credit, household balance sheets and participation rates were expanding, not contracting. • Tax rates, income, capital gains and dividends, were declining then; rising now.
    16. 21. Tactical Investment Portfolio For The Global Vision Advisors' Tactical Investment Portfolio is designed to capitalize on current trends, advances in risk management and targeted asset classes that align with protecting wealth and growing assets in volatile markets. Advanced Diversification Dec-09

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