Q3 Investment Presentation

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    Q3 Investment Presentation - Presentation Transcript

    1. Marketbeat Presentation Q3 2009
    2. Economic overview Q3 2009
    3. 3 Russia 2030 and UST 10, % 01 .0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 100% 102% 104% 106% 108% 110% 112% 114% 01 .2 0 .0 09 9 01 .2 0 .1 09 6 01 .2 0 .2 09 3 JAN 01 .2 0 .3 09 0. 02 2 0 .0 09 6 02 .2 0 .1 09 3 FEB 02 .2 0 .2 09 0.2 02 .2 009 7.2 03 0 .0 09 6 MAR 03 .2 0 .1 09 3 03 .2 0 .2 09 0 03 .2 0 .2 09 7 APR 04 .2 0 .0 09 3. 04 2 0 Russia 30 yield .0 09 9 04 .2 0 2008 .1 09 7 04 .2 0 MAY .2 09 4 05 .2 0 .0 09 1 05 .2 0 .0 09 8.2 05 0 JUN .1 09 5 05 .2 0 .2 09 2 05 .2 0 .2 09 9 06 .2 0 .0 09 JUL 5 06 .2 0 UST 10Y .1 09 2 06 .2 0 .1 09 9. 06 2 0 .2 09 CPI, % 6 2009 YTD AUG 07 .2 0 .0 09 3 07 .2 0 .1 09 0 07 .2 0 .1 09 7 SEP 07 .2 0 .2 09 4.2 07 0 .3 09 1 08 .2 0 .0 09 7 Spread OCT 08 .2 0 .1 09 4 08 .2 0 .2 09 1 08 .2 0 .2 09 8 Russia 30 vs. UST 10 09 .2 0 NOV .0 09 4. 09 2 0 .1 09 1 09 .2 0 .1 09 8 09 .2 0 Source: CBonds, Citi DEC .2 09 5.2 00 9 Source: Rosstat, Citi, Ministry for Economic Development 0 3Q 2009 facts and figures 9.5-11% eoy 2009 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 13.3% Spread US$ 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 100 120 140 160 20 40 60 80 Jan 08 Feb 08 Q1 2008 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Q2 2008 Jun 08 Jul 08 Avg, US$ Aug 08 Q3 2008 Sep 08 Oct 08 RUR / USD Avg Nov 08 Max, US$ Q4 2008 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Min, US$ Q1 2009 Mar 09 RUR / EUR Avg Apr 09 May 09 RUR/USD and RUR/EUR Q2 2009 URALS price US$ per bar Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Q3 2009 Source: CB RF Sep 09 Source: US Energy Information Administratiom
    4. Russian Federation Reserves 650,000 Source: CB RF GOLD AND FOREX RESERVES 600,000 550,000 Positive dynamics driven by dollar depreciation. 500,000 m n U SD 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 Ju 8 Au 8 Ju 9 Au 9 M 8 S e 08 D e 08 M 09 S e 09 Fe 8 08 Fe 9 09 M 8 Ap 8 M 9 09 O 8 O 9 08 Ja 8 O 09 D 0 0 r0 l0 l0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 YT ay ay b g v b g ar ar r n n n n p p Ju Ju ct c ct Ap No Ja ct 250 Source: Ministry for Economic Development RF BUDGET DEFICIT COVERAGE 200 150 Both Reserve and National Welfare bn USD funds are expected to be drawn down by 100 year-end 2012. 50 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Reserve fund National Welfare fund Internal & external borrowings 4
    5. Ex-Retail Turnover; Positive Momentum 30 2500 20 2000 10 CCI, IPI, IOI, RTT 1500 RTS Index 0 1Q 05 2Q 05 3Q 05 4Q 05 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 -10 1000 -20 500 -30 -40 0 Consumer confidence index, % ** Industrial production index, % change ** Industrial optimism index, pts *** Retail trade turnover, % change ** RTS index * Source: * - RTS ** - Rosstat 5 *** - Institute for the Economy in Transition
    6. Economic Summary % 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F GDP Growth 6,4 7,7 8,1 5,6 -7,5 3 CPI 10,9 9 11,9 13,3 10,8 10,6 Real consumption growth 8,8 9,2 11,4 9,5 -6,7 2,2 Long-term interest rate 6,4 6,3 6,2 8,5 9,5 8 Real investment growth 10,6 18 21,1 10 -15,5 0 Unemployment 7,6 7,2 6,1 6,4 8,3 8 Improved forecasts indicate consensus for improved performance As the highlighted corrective swings materialize, the market will quickly price in (and to some extent already is) stronger real estate fundamentals 6
    7. Real Estate Investments 7 000 Other Industrial 5 820 6 000 Retail Office 5 354 5 000 4 566 mn USD 4 000 1 762 YTD, 3 000 ~ 2 500 year-end 2 000 1 637 1 000 412 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD 7
    8. Retail Market Q3 2009
    9. Main Consumer-Market Indicators Retail turnover -9.9% year-on-year (September 2009) Retail spendings -13.65% year on year (July-August 2009) The share of food turnover Food retail turnover in the retail turnover is growing Consumer Confidence Index +7% since the 2nd quarter 9
    10. Evidence Suggests Room for Optimism Retail Turnover Growth 11.4% 9.2% 9.5% Due to positive 9.2% 8.8% momentum in other indices, Retail 5.0% Turnover Growth is expected to make a 2.2% large positive swing into 2010. 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F -6.7% 10
    11. Retail Spend Set to Swing to Recovery? 8.9% Retail spending has decreased from the beginning of 2009 to January February March April May June July August an apparent bottom in July. -7.7% The July low is a level -11.0% -11.9% -11.1% not seen since 2005. -14.1% -15.2% -16.2% 11
    12. Retail Pipeline: Russian Cities 300+ Pops Planned The number of planned projects has 8.6 mn sqm increased since Q1 2009 Under construction 6.7 mn sqm Frozen + 500,000 sq m of retail space under 3.2 mn sqm development was frozen since Q1 2009 Existing 9.0 mn sqm 12
    13. Rents in shopping centers, US$, By Type prime core subprime $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2009 2009 Average SC rental rate across types is $530 per sq m per year (–40% since September 2009) 13
    14. New Comers to The Russian RE Market New Comers New Look Uniqlo Leavers River Island Mustang Jeans 14
    15. Potential for Retail Project Development: Russian Cities CW’s Economics Economics& & *The size of the bubbles Investment grade investment grade indicates the cities’ population 2.5 Top 5 cities Nizhnyi Novgorod 2.0 Ufa Kazan Samara Perm 1.5 Rostov-on-Don Krasnodar Middle level Voronezh Togliatti Volgograd Naberezhnye Lipetsk 1.0 Orenburg Chelny Saratov T ula Yaroslavl Tver Izhevsk Ryazan 0.5 Ul'yanovsk Penza Risky Lower economy Ivanovo potential 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 Competition level 15
    16. Retail outlook Increase in leasing activity We expect that rental rates will stablize in the next 2-3 months Few openings of new shopping centers in Moscow and regions Increase in sales Mergers and acquisitions among retail chains Development of discount formats New occupier entrants (net of Carrefour) 16
    17. Office Market Q3 2009
    18. Current Market Situation, October 2009 Total office stock: 10,420,000 sq m SUPPLY Vacant space: 2,400,000 sq m (22.5%) Take-up Q3 2009: 190,000 sq m DEMAND Take-up forecast 2009: 600,000 sq m Average class A: $650 RENTAL RATE Average class B: $350 Source: CWSR Research 18
    19. Moscow Office Supply Vacant area distributed by type Office Stock Class Fit-out Offers Market Ready to make Buy or lease 0.3 mn sq m Buy sA m Sub-lease OTA as Cl n sq Not fitted-out 1.1 sq m m Class B 1.0 mn sq m 1 .8 Vacant 1.9 mn sq m Class B 8.6 mn sq m 23,5% CENTRAL Lease 0.7 sq m Fitted-out 1.1 mn sq m PRIME Class A 0.6 sq m 0.5 mn sq m Vacancy rates in class A building is 28,2% compared to 21% in class B buildings. Share of fitted-out office space offered for lease is growing and currently it is 45% of total vacant area. Another 12% of vacant space can be fitted-out by landlords. Sale offers of offices are more frequent in crisis period. Volume of sublease vacancies is on the level of 100 000 sq m (the same volume as 2008) and may start to decrease in Q1 2010 Source: CWSR Research 19
    20. Moscow Office Rental Rates Average Classes A and B asking base rental rates, USD per sq m per annum $1 600 $1 400 Class A Class B $650 $1 200 $1 000 $800 $600 $350 $400 $200 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Asking rental rates continue to decrease by over 7-12% in Q3 2009 and 50-60% from the level of summer 2008 Average asking rental rates in Q3 2009 for class A - $650 and Class B - $350 We expect stabilization of rental rates in Q4 2009. Source: CWSR Research 20
    21. Volume of New Construction Quarter ‘1000 sq m 1 200 Yearly Class B (B+ and B-) Class A 2 115 2 000 900 1 540 190 60 230 600 1 000 820 55 115 175 45 710 45 40 15 300 90 70 15 60 50 30 0 0 0 160 140 80 190 210 90 175 200 280 280 280 370 430 410 600 400 480 310 160 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Since 2007, volume of new construction was substantial, but total stock is still small relative to comps In spite of the crisis new construction continues a pace with 2008 CW forecasts 2,000,000 sq m of new construction for 2009 Source: CWSR Research 21
    22. Take-Up Q3 2009 Monthly take-up of quality office space 2003-2009, ‘000 sq m 350 ‘000 sq m 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Nov Dec Dec Nov Dec Dec Nov Dec Nov Sep Sep Oct Oct Sep Feb Feb Sep Feb Sep Apr Apr Oct Oct Aug Sep May May Feb May Sep Aug Aug Jan Jan Feb Apr Oct Aug Jan May Feb Mar Mar Apr Oct Oct Feb Jun Jul Jun Jul Jan Apr Jun Jul Jan May Apr Mar Apr Aug Jan May Jul May Mar Mar Aug Aug Jun Jun Jul Jan Mar Mar Jun Jul Jun Jul 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 F2009 Monthly take-up level Monthly take-up about 50,000 sq m Total Q3 take-up is 190,000 sq m Forecast total 2009 take-up is 600,000 sq m; comparable to 2003 Source: CWSR Research 22
    23. Pre-Crisis vs. Current Market Pre-crisis Currently Indicators (summer 2008) (autumn 2009) Class A: $1200 Class A: $650 (45% decrease) Rental rates Class B: $900 Class B: $350 (60% decrease) Class A: 10% Class A: 28,2% Vacancy Class B: 8% Class B: 21% Landlords is ready to execute fit- Premises delivered in shell&core Fit-out out according to client’s brief on its condition. Tenant executed fit-out . own cost (subject to negotiations). Rent free 3-6 months Potential for 6-12 months Average rent period 5-7 years 3 years Tenant right Landlords impose 5-10 years lease More flexibility by lease term and to terminate the lease terms without break options. break options Source: CWSR Research 23
    24. Warehouse and Land Markets Q3 2009
    25. W&I Market: Encouraging Signs Positive indicators, but will follow retail Freight turnover Bn tons Stable freight turnover growth per km 25.0 2008 Low rents 20.7 21.0 20.2 20.0 18.9 Quality stock, 000 sq.m 17.8 17.8 17.8 15.7 15.0 14.1 16.1 16.2 15.6 9000 Other 14.7 13.7 14.0 14.5 12.7 10.0 12.0 2009 Novosibirsk Kazan Ekaterinburg 5.0 7500 0.0 St. Peterburg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: Rosstat 6000 Rental rates, total stock and new construction $155 6,000 $145 $145 $140 4500 $137 Stock & New constr., '000 sq m 5,000 $132 $135 $130 Avg rental rate 4,000 $130 $125 $127 $115 3,000 3000 Moscow $105 2,000 $100 $95 1,000 $85 1500 0 $75 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F Industrial stock end of year '000 sq.m New construction '000 sq.m Average rental rates USD/sq.m 0 Source: C&W/S&R Research 25
    26. 3Q 2009 Land market AVAILABLE LAND OFFERED FOR RETAIL USE IN MOSCOW REGION Growth in new land offerings via CW Qty of land plots for sale Dmitrovsk shosse oe 15% Leningradskoe shosse Yaroslavskoe shosse 10% Novo-Rizhskoe shosse Gorkovskoe shosse 5% Minskoe shosse 0% Novo-Ryazanskoe shosse Kievskoe shosse Kaluzhskoe shosse Kashirskoe shosse Simferopolskoe shosse AVAILABLE LAND OFFERED FOR INDUSTRIAL ASKING PRICE FOR INDUSTRIAL LANDS WITH OFFICE/RETAIL AND LOGISTICS USE IN MOSCOW REGION ALLOWED USAGE, WITHIN 15-KM OF MKAD RANGE, MN USD per HA D irec tion 2007 2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 Dmitrovskoe shosse Min sk oe sh osse 2-3 1,9 -3 1 ,5-2 ,5 1 0,8 -1 20% Leningradskoe shosse Yaroslavskoe shosse L en ingradsk oe sh osse 1 ,7-2 ,0 1 ,7-2 ,5 1 ,5-2 ,5 0,8 -1,5 1-1 ,5 15% Kalu zh sk oe sh osse 1 ,7-2 ,3 1 ,4-2 ,3 1-1 ,5 0,8 -1 0,8 -1 Novo-Rizhskoe shosse 10% Gorkovskoe shosse S imfer opols koe sh osse 1-1 ,6 1-1 ,6 0 ,8-1 ,5 0,8 0,8 5% Kashir sk oe sh oss e 1 -1 ,5 1 -1 ,5 0 ,8-1 ,3 0,8 0,6 -1,1 Minskoe shosse 0% Novo-Ryazanskoe shosse No vo-R yazan sk oe sh osse 1 ,7-2 ,0 1 ,6-2 ,0 1,5 -2 0,5 -0,8 0,5 -0,8 G orkovsk oe sh osse 1 ,3-1 ,6 1 ,2-1 ,6 1-1 ,5 0,5 -1,0 0,5 -0,8 Kievskoe & Borovskoe shosse Y aros lavsko e sh osse 1 ,5-1 ,7 1 ,4-2 ,5 1,3 -2 1-1 ,5 0,8 -1 Kaluzhskoe shosse Kashirskoe shosse No vo-R izhsk oe sh osse 3-4 ,5 2,8 -4 3 2,5 -3 1,5 -3,5 Simferopolskoe shosse Kie vsk oe sh osse 1 ,8-2 ,3 1 ,7-2 ,3 1 ,7-2 ,1 0,9 -1,8 0,8 -1,5 D motrovsk oe sh osse 1,5 -2 1,4 -2 1 ,3-1 ,8 1-1 ,5 1-1 ,5 Source: C&W/S&R Research V arshavskoe shosse 1-1 ,4 1-1 ,4 0 ,9-1 ,3 0,8 0,7 -0,8 26
    27. Thank you
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    Russian Q3 real Estate Investment Presentation

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