Russian Federation Reserves
650,000
Source: CB RF
GOLD AND FOREX RESERVES
600,000
550,000
Positive dynamics driven by dollar
depreciation.
500,000
m n U SD
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
Ju 8
Au 8
Ju 9
Au 9
M 8
S e 08
D e 08
M 09
S e 09
Fe 8
08
Fe 9
09
M 8
Ap 8
M 9
09
O 8
O 9
08
Ja 8
O 09
D
0
0
r0
l0
l0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
YT
ay
ay
b
g
v
b
g
ar
ar
r
n
n
n
n
p
p
Ju
Ju
ct
c
ct
Ap
No
Ja
ct
250
Source: Ministry for Economic Development RF BUDGET DEFICIT COVERAGE
200
150 Both Reserve and National Welfare
bn USD
funds are expected to be drawn down by
100
year-end 2012.
50
0
2009 2010 2011 2012
Reserve fund National Welfare fund
Internal & external borrowings
4
Main Consumer-Market Indicators
Retail turnover -9.9% year-on-year (September 2009)
Retail spendings -13.65% year on year (July-August 2009)
The share of food turnover
Food retail turnover in the retail turnover is growing
Consumer Confidence Index +7% since the 2nd quarter
9
Evidence Suggests Room for Optimism
Retail Turnover Growth
11.4%
9.2%
9.5% Due to positive
9.2%
8.8% momentum in other
indices, Retail
5.0% Turnover Growth is
expected to make a
2.2% large positive swing
into 2010.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
-6.7%
10
Retail Spend Set to Swing to Recovery?
8.9%
Retail spending has
decreased from the
beginning of 2009 to
January February March April May June July August
an apparent bottom in
July.
-7.7%
The July low is a level
-11.0%
-11.9%
-11.1%
not seen since 2005.
-14.1%
-15.2%
-16.2%
11
Retail Pipeline: Russian Cities 300+ Pops
Planned The number of planned projects has
8.6 mn sqm increased since Q1 2009
Under construction
6.7 mn sqm
Frozen + 500,000 sq m of retail space under
3.2 mn sqm development was frozen since Q1 2009
Existing
9.0 mn sqm
12
Rents in shopping centers, US$, By Type
prime core subprime
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 2009 2009
Average SC rental rate across types is $530 per sq m per year (–40% since
September 2009)
13
New Comers to The Russian RE Market
New Comers
New Look
Uniqlo
Leavers
River Island
Mustang Jeans
14
Retail outlook
Increase in leasing activity
We expect that rental rates will stablize in the next 2-3 months
Few openings of new shopping centers in Moscow and regions
Increase in sales
Mergers and acquisitions among retail chains
Development of discount formats
New occupier entrants (net of Carrefour)
16
Office Market
Q3 2009
Current Market Situation, October 2009
Total office stock: 10,420,000 sq m
SUPPLY
Vacant space: 2,400,000 sq m (22.5%)
Take-up Q3 2009: 190,000 sq m
DEMAND
Take-up forecast 2009: 600,000 sq m
Average class A: $650
RENTAL RATE
Average class B: $350
Source: CWSR Research
18
Moscow Office Supply
Vacant area distributed by type
Office Stock Class Fit-out Offers Market
Ready to make Buy or lease
0.3 mn sq m Buy
sA
m Sub-lease OTA
as
Cl n sq Not fitted-out 1.1 sq m
m Class B 1.0 mn sq m
1 .8 Vacant 1.9 mn sq m
Class B
8.6 mn sq m 23,5% CENTRAL
Lease 0.7 sq m
Fitted-out
1.1 mn sq m PRIME
Class A
0.6 sq m
0.5 mn sq m
Vacancy rates in class A building is 28,2% compared to 21% in class B buildings.
Share of fitted-out office space offered for lease is growing and currently it is 45% of total vacant area.
Another 12% of vacant space can be fitted-out by landlords.
Sale offers of offices are more frequent in crisis period.
Volume of sublease vacancies is on the level of 100 000 sq m (the same volume as 2008) and may start to
decrease in Q1 2010
Source: CWSR Research
19
Moscow Office Rental Rates
Average Classes A and B asking base rental rates, USD per sq m per annum
$1 600
$1 400 Class A Class B
$650
$1 200
$1 000
$800
$600 $350
$400
$200
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Asking rental rates continue to decrease by over 7-12% in Q3 2009 and 50-60% from the level of
summer 2008
Average asking rental rates in Q3 2009 for class A - $650 and Class B - $350
We expect stabilization of rental rates in Q4 2009.
Source: CWSR Research
20
Volume of New Construction
Quarter ‘1000 sq m
1 200 Yearly
Class B (B+ and B-)
Class A
2 115 2 000
900
1 540
190
60
230
600 1 000
820 55
115
175
45
710
45 40
15
300 90 70
15 60
50 30
0
0 0
160 140 80 190 210 90 175 200 280 280 280 370 430 410 600 400 480 310 160
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Since 2007, volume of new construction was substantial, but total stock is still small relative to comps
In spite of the crisis new construction continues a pace with 2008
CW forecasts 2,000,000 sq m of new construction for 2009
Source: CWSR Research
21
Take-Up Q3 2009
Monthly take-up of quality office space 2003-2009, ‘000 sq m
350
‘000
sq m
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Sep
Feb
Feb
Sep
Feb
Sep
Apr
Apr
Oct
Oct
Aug
Sep
May
May
Feb
May
Sep
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan
Feb
Apr
Oct
Aug
Jan
May
Feb
Mar
Mar
Apr
Oct
Oct
Feb
Jun
Jul
Jun
Jul
Jan
Apr
Jun
Jul
Jan
May
Apr
Mar
Apr
Aug
Jan
May
Jul
May
Mar
Mar
Aug
Aug
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jan
Mar
Mar
Jun
Jul
Jun
Jul
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 F2009
Monthly take-up level Monthly take-up about 50,000 sq m
Total Q3 take-up is 190,000 sq m
Forecast total 2009 take-up is 600,000 sq m; comparable to 2003
Source: CWSR Research
22
Pre-Crisis vs. Current Market
Pre-crisis Currently
Indicators
(summer 2008) (autumn 2009)
Class A: $1200 Class A: $650 (45% decrease)
Rental rates
Class B: $900 Class B: $350 (60% decrease)
Class A: 10% Class A: 28,2%
Vacancy
Class B: 8% Class B: 21%
Landlords is ready to execute fit-
Premises delivered in shell&core
Fit-out out according to client’s brief on its
condition. Tenant executed fit-out .
own cost (subject to negotiations).
Rent free 3-6 months Potential for 6-12 months
Average rent period 5-7 years 3 years
Tenant right Landlords impose 5-10 years lease More flexibility by lease term and
to terminate the lease terms without break options. break options
Source: CWSR Research
23
Warehouse and Land Markets
Q3 2009
W&I Market: Encouraging Signs
Positive indicators, but will follow retail Freight turnover
Bn tons
Stable freight turnover growth per km
25.0 2008
Low rents 20.7 21.0
20.2
20.0 18.9
Quality stock, 000 sq.m 17.8 17.8 17.8
15.7
15.0 14.1
16.1 16.2
15.6
9000 Other 14.7
13.7 14.0 14.5
12.7
10.0 12.0 2009
Novosibirsk
Kazan
Ekaterinburg 5.0
7500
0.0
St. Peterburg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Source: Rosstat
6000 Rental rates, total stock and new construction
$155
6,000
$145 $145
$140
4500 $137
Stock & New constr., '000 sq m
5,000 $132
$135
$130
Avg rental rate
4,000 $130 $125
$127
$115
3,000
3000 Moscow $105
2,000 $100
$95
1,000
$85
1500 0 $75
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F
Industrial stock end of year '000 sq.m New construction '000 sq.m
Average rental rates USD/sq.m
0 Source: C&W/S&R Research
25
3Q 2009 Land market
AVAILABLE LAND OFFERED FOR RETAIL USE IN
MOSCOW REGION Growth in new land offerings via CW
Qty of land plots for sale
Dmitrovsk shosse
oe
15%
Leningradskoe shosse Yaroslavskoe shosse
10%
Novo-Rizhskoe shosse Gorkovskoe shosse
5%
Minskoe shosse 0% Novo-Ryazanskoe shosse
Kievskoe shosse
Kaluzhskoe shosse Kashirskoe shosse
Simferopolskoe shosse
AVAILABLE LAND OFFERED FOR INDUSTRIAL ASKING PRICE FOR INDUSTRIAL LANDS WITH OFFICE/RETAIL
AND LOGISTICS USE IN MOSCOW REGION ALLOWED USAGE, WITHIN 15-KM OF MKAD RANGE,
MN USD per HA
D irec tion 2007 2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009
Dmitrovskoe shosse Min sk oe sh osse 2-3 1,9 -3 1 ,5-2 ,5 1 0,8 -1
20%
Leningradskoe shosse Yaroslavskoe shosse L en ingradsk oe sh osse 1 ,7-2 ,0 1 ,7-2 ,5 1 ,5-2 ,5 0,8 -1,5 1-1 ,5
15%
Kalu zh sk oe sh osse 1 ,7-2 ,3 1 ,4-2 ,3 1-1 ,5 0,8 -1 0,8 -1
Novo-Rizhskoe shosse 10% Gorkovskoe shosse
S imfer opols koe sh osse 1-1 ,6 1-1 ,6 0 ,8-1 ,5 0,8 0,8
5%
Kashir sk oe sh oss e 1 -1 ,5 1 -1 ,5 0 ,8-1 ,3 0,8 0,6 -1,1
Minskoe shosse 0% Novo-Ryazanskoe shosse
No vo-R yazan sk oe sh osse 1 ,7-2 ,0 1 ,6-2 ,0 1,5 -2 0,5 -0,8 0,5 -0,8
G orkovsk oe sh osse 1 ,3-1 ,6 1 ,2-1 ,6 1-1 ,5 0,5 -1,0 0,5 -0,8
Kievskoe & Borovskoe shosse
Y aros lavsko e sh osse 1 ,5-1 ,7 1 ,4-2 ,5 1,3 -2 1-1 ,5 0,8 -1
Kaluzhskoe shosse Kashirskoe shosse No vo-R izhsk oe sh osse 3-4 ,5 2,8 -4 3 2,5 -3 1,5 -3,5
Simferopolskoe shosse Kie vsk oe sh osse 1 ,8-2 ,3 1 ,7-2 ,3 1 ,7-2 ,1 0,9 -1,8 0,8 -1,5
D motrovsk oe sh osse 1,5 -2 1,4 -2 1 ,3-1 ,8 1-1 ,5 1-1 ,5
Source: C&W/S&R Research V arshavskoe shosse 1-1 ,4 1-1 ,4 0 ,9-1 ,3 0,8 0,7 -0,8
26
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