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Forecasting Our Economic Future_Kyser
 

Forecasting Our Economic Future_Kyser

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    Forecasting Our Economic Future_Kyser Forecasting Our Economic Future_Kyser Presentation Transcript

    • “Forecasting our Economic Future”
      Contract Cities Association51st Annual Municipal Seminar
      Jack Kyser
      Founding Economist
      The Kyser Center for Economic Research
      May 14, 2010
    • 2010
      “A Measured Economic Recovery”
    • More Positive Signs…
    • JOB COUNTS “READY TO TURN UP?”
      Most Recent
      Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA EDD
    • U.S. Retail Sales
      Source: U.S. Census Bureau
    • Nondefense Capital Goods Shipments
      Source: U.S. Census Bureau
    • Car & Light Truck Sales
      Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
    • But There Are Concerns
    • JOBLESS RATES AT HIGH LEVELS
      Percent Unemployed (SA)
      Sources: BLS, CA EDD
    • Characteristics of the Unemployed
      Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment, seasonally adjusted
      Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
    • Spot Energy Prices
      $/Barrel
      $/Mcf
      Source: Federal Reserve, St. Louis
    • U.S. Personal Savings Rate
      Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
    • U.S. Equity Prices
    • COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS
      Source: Federal Reserve
    • U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH
      Q/Q Change (at Annual Rate)
      Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecast by LAEDC
    • U.S. Labor Market
      Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC
    • Risks for the Economy
      • Financial Fragility
      • Credit Crunch
      • Can the Housing Sector “Fly Solo”?
      • Consumer/Business Confidence Still Weak
    • California Fundamentals
      Change in Nonfarm Jobs, SA, thousands
      Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year
      (Thousands)
      Unemployment Rate
      March 2010
      Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD)
    • JOB TRENDS BY METRO AREA
      12-Month % Change to March 2010
      Sources: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
    • California Industry Winners and Losers
      Monthly Mar ’09 to Mar ’10 % Change in Average Employment (000s)
      Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD)
    • Characteristics of California’s Unemployed
      Employees, thousands
      Source: California Employment Development Department (EDD)
    • California Housing Market
      Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, California Association of Realtors
    • Unsold Inventory By Price Range
      California - Existing Homes March 2010 vs. March 2009
      SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
    • California Fundamentals
      Yr/Yr Annual Employment % Change
      Source: EDD Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC
    • Risks for the California Economy
      • On-going state budget problems. Impact on local governments & redevelopment agencies
      • Unfriendly business environment – business recruiters are busy
      • Water
      • Transportation
      • Environmental Regulations
    • Regional Review
    • Los Angeles County Fundamentals
      Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year
      (Thousands)
      Unemployment Rate
      March 2010
      Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD)
    • Orange County Fundamentals
      Unemployment Rate
      Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year
      (000s)
      March 2010
      Source: California Employment Development Dept.
    • Inland Empire Fundamentals
      Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year
      (000s)
      Unemployment Rate
      March 2010
      Source: California Employment Development Dept.
    • San Francisco Metro Area Fundamentals
      Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year
      Unemployment Rate
      March 2010
      Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD)
    • Oakland Metro Area Fundamentals
      Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year
      Unemployment Rate
      March 2010
      Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD)
    • Trends in Key Industries
    • TOTAL CARGO HANDLED at LA/ LB Ports
      Thousands of TEUs
      April 2010
      Total TEUs: 1,080,343
      Annual % Change: +14.8%
      Sources: Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach
    • TOTAL CARGO HANDLED at Oakland Port
      Thousands of TEUs
      March 2010
      Total TEUs: 186,956
      Annual % Change: + 10.5%
      Source: Port of Oakland
    • TECHNOLOGY JOB TRENDS IN CALIFORNIA
      Thousands of Jobs
      Source: California Employment Development Department
    • HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES
      Occupancy Rates (%)
      Source: PKF Consulting
    • Hotel Room Rates
      Source: PKF Consulting
    • Trends in Trailing Industries
    • California Personal Income & Taxable Sales
      Year/Year % Change
      Sources: BEA, CA BOE
    • California New Home Permits
      SAAR, thousands of units
      Source: California Construction Industry Research Board
    • Office Vacancy Rates (1st Quarter 2010)
      • Los Angeles County 16.6%
      • Orange County 26.9%
      • Inland Empire 24.0%
      • San Francisco 17.6%
      • San Jose/Silicon Valley 18.6%
      • Sacramento 20.6%
      Source: Grubb & Ellis
    • Industrial Vacancy Rates (1st Quarter 2010)
      • Los Angeles County 3.4%
      • Orange County 6.7%
      • Inland Empire 11.9%
      • Oakland 4.7%
      • San Jose/Silicon Valley 15.2%
      • Sacramento 12.8%
      Source: Grubb & Ellis
    • Wrap-Up
      • Growth will Slowly Accelerate During 2010 and in to 2011
      • However, Unemployment will only Gradually Decline
      • Key Tax Generating Sectors – Real Estate & Retailing – Will Lag the Overall Economy
      • Challenges for California & Local Metro Areas:
      • Business Feels Government is Unresponsive to Their Needs
      • Business is Confused by all the Regulation
      • Business is being Vigorously Courted by Other States
    • THANK YOU and
      STAY INFORMED
      Keep up with economic news and major developments by
      subscribing to e-EDGE, our free weekly economic newsletter. Check out the current issue at www.LAEDC.org