Scottish Independence Open Democracy
Independence Referendum Survey
January 2014

Phase 1 results

TNS
Independence Refere...
Likelihood of voting

Two thirds claim they are „certain to vote‟ in the
referendum, suggesting higher than usual engageme...
Voting Intentions

Currently, three in ten (29%) adults in Scotland intend to vote Yes, 42%
No and 29% are undecided; thos...
Devo Max

Despite not featuring on the referendum ballot, the option of „Devo Max‟
would be supported by one third (35%), ...
Knowledge about the issues

Over half (56%) indicated that they do not have enough knowledge about
the issues related to S...
Awareness and reading of White Paper

Whilst seven in ten claim to have heard of the White Paper, only 14%
indicated they ...
Cameron vs. Salmond

Two thirds (67%) agreed that there should be a debate on the key issues
between David Cameron and Ale...
Effectiveness of campaigns

Neither campaign appears to have performed well so far, with 32%
agreeing that Better Together...
Visibility of campaigns

There is agreement that both campaigns need to be seen and heard more
in the debate, though there...
Methodology


A representative sample of 1054 adults aged 16+ across Scotland was
interviewed for the research between 14...
Scottish Independence Open Democracy
Independence Referendum Survey
January 2014

Phase 1 results

TNS
Independence Refere...
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Scottish Independence Open Democracy - Independence Referendum Survey January 2014, Phase 1 results

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TNS was commissioned by Scottish Independence Open Democracy to conduct research among adults in Scotland into the issues facing voters in the run up to the referendum on 18th September 2014. The first results from this poll were published on 2nd February.

For more information visit www.tnsglobal.com/uk/scotland

Published in: News & Politics, Travel, Sports
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Scottish Independence Open Democracy - Independence Referendum Survey January 2014, Phase 1 results

  1. 1. Scottish Independence Open Democracy Independence Referendum Survey January 2014 Phase 1 results TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694
  2. 2. Likelihood of voting Two thirds claim they are „certain to vote‟ in the referendum, suggesting higher than usual engagement % Certain to vote Very likely to vote Quite likely to vote 65 13 Among undecideds, 42% claim they are certain to vote, highlighting the influential role this group is likely to play in the debate. 11 Not very likely to vote Certain not to vote 73% of Yes voters and 76% of No voters claim they are certain to vote. 7 4 Q12 How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18 th of September 2014? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 2
  3. 3. Voting Intentions Currently, three in ten (29%) adults in Scotland intend to vote Yes, 42% No and 29% are undecided; those who claim to be certain to vote are more likely to have an opinion, but one fifth of this group is undecided All adults 16+ Yes All certain to vote Yes 29 No 42 Don't know 29 32 No Don't know 49 19 S1 There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18 th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) / All who are certain to vote (779) TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 3
  4. 4. Devo Max Despite not featuring on the referendum ballot, the option of „Devo Max‟ would be supported by one third (35%), and is most popular among those who are currently undecided All adults 16+ Keep the current arrangement of a Scottish Parliament with its existing powers % 0 % 31 78 35 No voters (493) Keep the current arrangement of a Scottish Parliament with its existing powers Transfer more powers from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament, including tax and welfare but excluding defence and foreign affairs Full independence for Scotland 58 40 0 2 24 22 Undecided (274) Don‟t know 18 5 Transfer more powers from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament, including tax and welfare but excluding… Full independence for Scotland Yes Voters (287) 10 44 Don‟t know 6 27 S1A Thinking more generally about the future of Scotland, which of these three options would you support the most Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 4
  5. 5. Knowledge about the issues Over half (56%) indicated that they do not have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote, rising to 81% among undecideds % Definitely have enough knowledge 13 Probably have enough knowledge 30 Probably do not have enough knowledge Among this latter group, 81% feel they do not have enough knowledge. 35 Definitely do not have enough knowledge Don't know Enough knowledge = 43% 56% of Yes voters and 53% of No voters claim they have enough knowledge compared to just 15% of undecideds. 21 Not enough knowledge = 56% 2 Q6 To what extent do you feel that you have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote in the referendum? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 5
  6. 6. Awareness and reading of White Paper Whilst seven in ten claim to have heard of the White Paper, only 14% indicated they had read any of it. % Yes, read all of it Yes, read some of it 1 Read any of the White Paper = 14% 13 Aware of the white paper, but not read any of it Not aware of the white paper Aware of the White Paper = 71% 57 29 Q7: The Scottish Government white paper on Scotland‟s independence (called “Scotland‟s Future”) was launched on 26th November. Had you heard of the white paper before today, and if so have you read any of it? Base: All Adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 6
  7. 7. Cameron vs. Salmond Two thirds (67%) agreed that there should be a debate on the key issues between David Cameron and Alex Salmond, with 17% disagreeing % There should be a debate on the key issues between David Cameron (Prime Minister of the UK) and Alex Salmond (First Minister of Scotland) Agree Strongly 48 Agree Slightly Neither Agree nor Disagree 18 Disagree slightly 12 5 12 Disagree Strongly 5 Don't know Three quarters (75%) of Yes voters agree there should be a debate, as do 60% of No voters and 68% of Undecideds Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 7
  8. 8. Effectiveness of campaigns Neither campaign appears to have performed well so far, with 32% agreeing that Better Together has outlined the benefits of the UK and 34% agreeing that Yes Scotland has outlined the benefits of Independence % The Better Together (No) campaign has clearly outlined the benefits of Scotland staying in the UK 11 The Yes Scotland (Yes) campaign has clearly outlined the benefits of Scotland becoming independent Agree Strongly 13 Agree Slightly 21 21 25 21 Neither Agree nor Disagree Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) 16 17 21 16 Disagree slightly 10 8 Disagree Strongly Don't know Yes voters appear to be more satisfied with their campaign – 58% of Yes voters agree that Yes Scotland has outlined the benefits of independence, whilst 48% of No voters agree that Better Together has outlined the benefits of the UK TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 8
  9. 9. Visibility of campaigns There is agreement that both campaigns need to be seen and heard more in the debate, though there is greater demand for Better Together to increase their presence % The Better Together (No) campaign needs to be seen and heard more in the debate 35 The Yes Scotland (Yes) campaign needs to be seen and heard more in the debate Agree Strongly 31 Agree Slightly 29 24 Neither Agree nor Disagree Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) 18 19 Disagree slightly 6 10 4 9 Disagree Strongly 8 6 Don't know 73% of Yes voters agree that Yes Scotland needs greater visibility, compared to 81% of No voters who feel the same about Better Together TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 9
  10. 10. Methodology  A representative sample of 1054 adults aged 16+ across Scotland was interviewed for the research between 14th and 20th January 2014.  All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing).  Interviewing was conducted in sampling points across 67 constituencies selected to represent Scotland geographically and demographically.  A quota sampling method was used for respondent selection.  To ensure the sample was representative of adults 16+ in Scotland, a weighting matrix was applied to the data according to gender, age, and social grade to match population estimates from the BARB (Broadcasters‟ Audience Research Board) Establishment Report 2011, mid year population estimates 2011 and the 2001 Census.  Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 10
  11. 11. Scottish Independence Open Democracy Independence Referendum Survey January 2014 Phase 1 results TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694
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