Scottish independence poll - 19th March 2014

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TNS was commissioned by The Herald newspaper to conduct research among adults in Scotland into levels of engagement and involvement in the debate around the Scottish independence referendum on 18th September 2014. The results from this poll were published on 19th March 2014 and the data tables can be found here.


About TNS:
TNS UK advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and stakeholder management, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world’s consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world. TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups. Please visit www.tnsglobal.com/uk for more information.

TNS UK was awarded the Market Research Society's (MRS) Agency of the Year 2013.

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Scottish independence poll - 19th March 2014

  1. 1. POLL ON SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE Published 20th February / 19th March 2014 As the leading supplier of opinion polls within Scotland for over 30 years, TNS will be publishing regular polling in the run-up to the Scottish Independence referendum on 18th September 2014, using the exact wording which will feature on the ballot paper for the referendum vote. The voting intentions results from the latest poll in this monthly series were published on 20th February 2014. Additional questions were published in The Herald on 19th March 2014. TNS is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abides by its rules. We also operate within the Code of Conduct of the Market Research Society (MRS). In accordance with these rules the following information is provided: Sample size 996 Sampling points 71 Scottish parliament constituencies Fieldwork dates 28th January – 6th February 2014 Interview method Face-to-face, in-home CAPI Population sampled All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Sampling method The poll was conducted through our Omnibus, Scottish Opinion Survey. For this survey, sampling points are selected to be representative of Scotland demographically and geographically. Within each sampling point, a quota sampling method is used for respondent selection. Data weighting Data is weighted to the profile of all adults aged 16+ in Scotland, based on population profile estimates from the BARB (Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board) Establishment Report 2011, Mid year population estimates 2011 and the 2001 Census. Weighting is carried out in relation to working status within gender, age, social grade and electoral region. Data is also weighted by recalled vote to match turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results. Unweighted and weighted bases are shown at the top of each data table. Questions The data tables show the question wording in full Further enquiries Alastair.graham@tnsglobal.com
  2. 2. SEGSEGAGESEX C2DEABC1DEC2C1AB55+35-5416-3465+55-6445-5435-4425-3416-24FemaleMaleTotal 543453356187268185450289257292158168121134123541455996Unweighted base 499497298201283214355341300204151178162156144518478996Weighted base 154135926281559711380455260533842121168290Yes 31%27%31%31%29%25%27%33%27%22%34%33%33%24%29%23%35%29% 184232100831281041631391141115276635658220196416No 37%47%34%41%45%49%46%41%38%54%34%43%39%36%40%42%41%42% 1611291055674559589106474842466244177114291Don't know 32%26%35%28%26%26%27%26%35%23%32%24%29%40%31%34%24%29% Page 1 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 1 Q1. There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  3. 3. REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTIONAREAAREA Don'tMid &NorthEast/ knowNoYesSouthWestGlasgowCentralLothiansFifeEastH&INorthSouthWestTotal 275432289134134108117136113128126267336393996Unweighted base 29141629013013013013912912912980232353411996Weighted base --29046394242342436276497129290Yes --100%36%30%32%30%27%18%28%34%28%27%31%29% -416-5158464959656127101153162416No -100%-39%45%35%35%46%50%47%34%44%43%39%42% 291--323342483641332667103120291Don't know 100%--25%25%32%34%28%32%26%32%29%29%29%29% Page 2 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 1 Q1. There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  4. 4. VOTE IN 2011LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING Not certai n /NotCertaiCertai DidCan'tverycertain notNotn/very notremembLibConserlikelyntoveryQuiteVeryCertailikely voteerOtherSNPDemLabourvative(Net)(Net)votelikelylikelylikelyn(Net)Total 25090222455726072163268305281105728833996Unweighted base 36412962284015970195308406590113688801996Weighted base 8320215352331946441127244270290Yes 23%16%35%67%14%14%4%10%15%10%6%13%24%35%34%29% 157483322691606411319242249303351416No 43%37%48%14%64%57%86%33%37%46%37%24%43%44%44%42% 12461143946711214918375737141179291Don't know 34%47%18%19%22%29%10%57%48%44%57%63%33%21%22%29% Page 3 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 1 Q1. There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  5. 5. SEGSEGAGESEX C2DEABC1DEC2C1AB55+35-5416-3465+55-6445-5435-4425-3416-24FemaleMaleTotal 543453356187268185450289257292158168121134123541455996Unweighted base 499497298201283214355341300204151178162156144518478996Weighted base 2211351319091441051051466243525271762241323561-4 (Net) 44%27%44%45%32%21%29%31%49%30%29%29%32%45%53%43%28%36% 973657402963631662015151638289340133Not at all (1) 19%7%19%20%10%3%10%9%22%10%10%8%10%24%20%18%8%13% 27191413109121618846108103115462 (2) 5%4%5%6%4%4%3%5%6%4%2%3%6%5%7%6%3%5% 4739291828112529311411171314175828863 (3) 9%8%10%9%10%5%7%9%10%7%8%9%8%9%12%11%6%9% 5041311923183228311913141310204149914 (4) 10%8%10%9%8%8%9%8%10%9%9%8%8%7%14%8%10%9% 1401278555715710298675151534635321411262675-6 (Net) 28%26%28%27%25%26%29%29%22%25%34%30%28%22%22%27%26%27% 95855737493671664238333531212195841795 (5) 19%17%19%19%17%17%20%19%14%19%22%19%19%13%15%18%17%18% 4543281722213132251318181414114543886 (6) 9%9%9%9%8%10%9%9%8%6%12%10%9%9%8%9%9%9% 1392348257121113149138879157736451361542193737-10 (Net) 28%47%28%28%43%53%42%40%29%45%38%41%40%33%25%30%46%37% 52722527333940434221192122261655691247 (7) 10%14%8%13%12%18%11%12%14%10%13%12%13%17%11%11%14%12% 3674211540344642223215251713848621108 (8) 7%15%7%7%14%16%13%12%7%15%10%14%10%9%6%9%13%11% 1434105161920141512886781534499 (9) 3%7%3%2%6%9%6%4%5%6%5%5%4%5%5%3%7%5% 365426113222433982816192044355590Very closely (10) 7%11%9%5%11%10%12%12%3%14%10%11%12%3%3%7%12%9% 4.7675.9954.8354.6665.7176.3645.7965.6914.5345.8855.6755.7715.6024.6204.4414.8315.9745.380Mean 2.7352.5972.7862.6632.7442.3462.7012.6662.6762.7822.5912.6122.7282.7612.5872.7282.6212.736Std. Dev. 0.1170.1220.1480.1950.1680.1720.1270.1570.1670.1630.2060.2020.2480.2390.2330.1170.1230.087Std. Error 0.0140.0150.0220.0380.0280.0300.0160.0250.0280.0270.0420.0410.0620.0570.0540.0140.0150.008Error Variance Page 4 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 2 Q2A. On a scale of 1 to ten where 10 is very closely and 1 is not at all, how closely would you say you have been following the debate on Scottish independence so far? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  6. 6. REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTIONAREAAREA Don'tMid &NorthEast/ knowNoYesSouthWestGlasgowCentralLothiansFifeEastH&INorthSouthWestTotal 275432289134134108117136113128126267336393996Unweighted base 29141629013013013013912912912980232353411996Weighted base 150149575943543744464527781381403561-4 (Net) 52%36%20%46%33%42%26%34%36%35%34%33%39%34%36% 724417152128161419119205261133Not at all (1) 25%11%6%12%16%22%12%11%15%8%11%9%15%15%13% 1529395337667141616462 (2) 5%7%1%7%4%2%2%6%4%5%9%6%5%4%5% 3042141711812117165203234863 (3) 10%10%5%13%8%6%8%8%5%12%6%8%9%8%9% 3335231851551215136233829914 (4) 11%8%8%14%4%12%4%9%12%10%8%10%11%7%9% 9210966323423423733442275861052675-6 (Net) 32%26%23%25%26%18%30%29%26%34%28%32%24%26%27% 69674216281529241933165451741795 (5) 24%16%15%12%21%11%21%18%15%26%20%23%15%18%18% 2342231668131314116213532886 (6) 8%10%8%13%5%6%9%10%11%8%8%9%10%8%9% 491571673953526148504030801281653737-10 (Net) 17%38%58%30%41%41%44%37%38%31%38%34%36%40%37% 1360511219192214201342244581247 (7) 5%14%17%10%15%15%16%11%16%10%5%9%12%14%12% 19415112141414151314143136431108 (8) 6%10%18%9%11%11%10%11%10%11%18%13%10%11%11% 62121484148444101623499 (9) 2%5%7%3%6%3%10%6%3%3%5%4%5%6%5% 1135441012161111129918324190Very closely (10) 4%9%15%8%9%12%8%9%10%7%11%8%9%10%9% 4.1685.3996.5685.0335.3875.2355.7495.4735.3875.2635.5475.4145.2725.4535.380Mean 2.5242.6752.4972.6402.8623.0262.6732.6892.7382.4432.8382.5442.7732.8112.736Std. Dev. 0.1520.1290.1470.2280.2470.2910.2470.2310.2580.2160.2530.1560.1510.1420.087Std. Error 0.0230.0170.0220.0520.0610.0850.0610.0530.0660.0470.0640.0240.0230.0200.008Error Variance Page 5 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 2 Q2A. On a scale of 1 to ten where 10 is very closely and 1 is not at all, how closely would you say you have been following the debate on Scottish independence so far? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  7. 7. VOTE IN 2011LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING Not certai n /NotCertaiCertai DidCan'tverycertain notNotn/very notremembLibConserlikelyntoveryQuiteVeryCertailikely voteerOtherSNPDemLabourvative(Net)(Net)votelikelylikelylikelyn(Net)Total 25090222455726072163268305281105728833996Unweighted base 36412962284015970195308406590113688801996Weighted base 18651139135115144197335853531592113561-4 (Net) 51%39%20%17%33%32%21%74%64%83%90%59%47%23%26%36% 8220*831638296273124153751133Not at all (1) 23%15%3%4%7%10%5%42%31%67%48%26%13%5%6%13% 283-21941827110791928462 (2) 8%2%-1%2%6%6%9%9%3%15%8%8%3%4%5% 449*1161242129471095665863 (3) 12%7%3%5%15%8%5%11%10%10%10%11%8%8%8%9% 32191184144244411112204667914 (4) 9%15%14%8%10%9%5%12%14%2%17%14%18%7%8%9% 89352609482541795432381882262675-6 (Net) 24%27%30%26%23%30%35%21%26%14%6%35%34%27%28%27% 63221404341534615325281181461795 (5) 17%17%22%18%10%21%21%17%20%14%5%27%25%17%18%18% 2613*1951410718-17117080886 (6) 7%10%8%9%12%9%14%4%6%-1%8%9%10%10%9% 904331291760301031226223423633737-10 (Net) 25%34%50%57%44%37%44%5%10%4%4%6%19%50%45%37% 411713042210416--4121081201247 (7) 11%13%17%13%9%14%15%2%5%--4%10%16%15%12% 1910147820541011171001071108 (8) 5%8%13%21%19%13%7%2%3%2%2%1%6%15%13%11% 164*16327-3---34649499 (9) 4%3%4%7%7%1%10%-1%---3%7%6%5% 141213641582311**888890Very closely (10) 4%10%17%16%9%10%12%1%1%1%2%1%*13%11%9% 4.3635.2346.4856.6905.8525.4656.1232.9053.4902.1462.4243.5914.5026.2265.9835.380Mean 2.6682.7082.5312.3772.6442.6042.5222.0662.2341.9951.9032.0142.1572.5092.5332.736Std. Dev. 0.1690.2850.5400.1520.3500.1620.2970.1620.1360.3640.2640.2240.2100.0930.0880.087Std. Error 0.0280.0820.2910.0230.1230.0260.0880.0260.0190.1330.0700.0500.0440.0090.0080.008Error Variance Page 6 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 2 Q2A. On a scale of 1 to ten where 10 is very closely and 1 is not at all, how closely would you say you have been following the debate on Scottish independence so far? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  8. 8. SEGSEGAGESEX C2DEABC1DEC2C1AB55+35-5416-3465+55-6445-5435-4425-3416-24FemaleMaleTotal 543453356187268185450289257292158168121134123541455996Unweighted base 499497298201283214355341300204151178162156144518478996Weighted base 330406191140228178269264204154115142122103100360376736Any (Net) 66%82%64%69%80%83%76%77%68%76%76%79%75%66%70%70%79%74% 214276122921481282001671241148591767054226264490Watched special TV 43%56%41%46%52%60%56%49%41%56%56%51%47%44%38%44%55%49%programmes about the referendum (not including the news) 7254418716133885812122032Written to or emailed a 1%5%1%2%6%3%4%4%1%4%5%3%5%*2%2%4%3%newspaper 17399820181022244610121311144156Contributed to online 3%8%3%4%7%9%3%6%8%2%4%5%8%8%7%3%9%6%discussions 2313301261051781521832081709984113958783276284561Talked about the 46%66%42%52%63%71%52%61%57%48%56%63%58%56%58%53%59%56%referendum with friends / family 4096192146503849492414212824264889137Read any of the White 8%19%7%10%16%23%11%14%16%12%10%12%17%15%18%9%19%14%Paper 10235512111599978145112233Attended a public 2%5%2%3%4%5%4%3%3%4%4%4%1%2%4%2%5%3%meeting / forum 212218476225321141015Worked with the Yes *2%1%*3%2%2%2%1%1%4%2%1%*1%1%2%1%Scotland campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 32*31232-3-2---155Worked with the Better 1%**1%*1%1%1%-2%-1%---*1%1%Together campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 16790105625436847696483737405343155101257None 33%18%35%31%19%17%24%22%32%23%24%21%24%34%30%30%21%26% 212-1-21-2--1--213Don't Know **1%-*-1%*-1%--*--*** Page 7 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 3 Q2B. There are many ways in which people might follow or take part in the referendum debate. Which, if any, of these have you done? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  9. 9. Page 8 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 3 Q2B. There are many ways in which people might follow or take part in the referendum debate. Which, if any, of these have you done? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014 REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTIONAREAAREA Don'tMid &NorthEast/ knowNoYesSouthWestGlasgowCentralLothiansFifeEastH&INorthSouthWestTotal 275432289134134108117136113128126267336393996Unweighted base 29141629013013013013912912912980232353411996Weighted base 1713132528795931071021008568171257308736Any (Net) 59%75%87%67%74%72%76%78%77%66%85%74%73%75%74% 1042101765364567860735948123160208490Watched special TV 36%51%61%41%49%43%56%46%56%46%60%53%45%51%49%programmes about the referendum (not including the news) 61115253444-101291132Written to or emailed a 2%3%5%1%4%3%3%3%3%-13%5%3%3%3%newspaper 5163551351594236212956Contributed to online 2%4%12%4%10%4%11%7%3%2%4%3%6%7%6%discussions 1242381996376847486706443117210234561Talked about the 43%57%69%48%59%65%53%67%54%49%54%50%59%57%56%referendum with friends / family 195266131429162519119255161137Read any of the White 7%12%23%10%11%23%12%19%15%9%11%11%14%15%14%Paper 4822325873246151233Attended a public 1%2%7%2%1%4%5%5%2%1%5%3%4%3%3%meeting / forum *-1421334-1118515Worked with the Yes *-5%1%1%2%2%3%-1%1%1%2%1%1%Scotland campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 15---122-112315Worked with the Better *1%---*1%1%-1%1%1%1%*1%Together campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 1181013742343631272944126194102257None 41%24%13%33%26%28%23%21%23%34%15%26%27%25%26% 111--111----213Don't Know ***--*1%1%----***
  10. 10. VOTE IN 2011LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING Not certai n /NotCertaiCertai DidCan'tverycertain notNotn/very notremembLibConserlikelyntoveryQuiteVeryCertailikely voteerOtherSNPDemLabourvative(Net)(Net)votelikelylikelylikelyn(Net)Total 25090222455726072163268305281105728833996Unweighted base 36412962284015970195308406590113688801996Weighted base 2329151953411762891686275679568647736Any (Net) 64%70%92%86%85%73%89%46%55%16%41%62%70%83%81%74% 14058313922814741903102849401450490Watched special TV 38%45%57%61%56%51%67%21%29%6%16%31%43%58%56%49%programmes about the referendum (not including the news) 92-16*3157--52252732Written to or emailed a 2%1%-7%1%2%2%3%2%--6%2%4%3%3%newspaper 24-12216258-233485156Contributed to online 7%-9%10%4%4%3%2%3%-3%3%3%7%6%6%discussions 177645153278847681246214157437493561Talked about the 49%50%75%67%67%55%67%35%40%14%32%46%50%63%62%56%referendum with friends / family 411414082495191-514117131137Read any of the White 11%11%13%17%19%15%13%3%6%1%-5%13%17%16%14%Paper 9-*1514413-1-2303233Attended a public 2%-7%6%3%3%6%1%1%-2%-1%4%4%3%meeting / forum 1--12-1-------151515Worked with the Yes *--5%-1%-------2%2%1%Scotland campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) -1--*13------555Worked with the Better -1%--1%1%5%------1%1%1%Together campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 13238*33640610614034383434117151257None 36%30%8%14%15%25%9%54%45%84%59%38%30%17%19%26% -----21------333Don't Know -----1%1%------*** Page 9 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 3 Q2B. There are many ways in which people might follow or take part in the referendum debate. Which, if any, of these have you done? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  11. 11. SEGSEGAGESEX C2DEABC1DEC2C1AB55+35-5416-3465+55-6445-5435-4425-3416-24FemaleMaleTotal 543453356187268185450289257292158168121134123541455996Unweighted base 499497298201283214355341300204151178162156144518478996Weighted base 31538917813721617324825420114210613811698103353351704Any (Net) 63%78%60%68%76%81%70%75%67%69%70%78%72%63%72%68%73%71% 201275119821481271931691141118297725955235241476Watched special TV 40%55%40%41%52%59%54%50%38%54%54%54%44%38%38%45%50%48%programmes about the referendum (not including the news) 724341410151347748-4121931Written to or emailed a 1%5%1%2%5%5%4%4%1%4%5%2%5%-3%2%4%3%newspaper 1736611211582520261213714173753Contributed to online 3%7%2%6%8%7%2%7%7%1%4%7%8%4%10%3%8%5%discussions 19028810783158130157164157807792727780241237478Talked about the 38%58%36%41%56%61%44%48%52%39%51%52%44%49%56%47%50%48%referendum with friends / family 661343433746049886326234445333084117200Read any of the White 13%27%11%16%26%28%14%26%21%13%15%25%27%21%21%16%24%20%Paper 4076202047294741282324251511185463117Attended a public 8%15%7%10%17%14%13%12%9%11%16%14%9%7%12%10%13%12%meeting / forum 7164312369715631681423Worked with the Yes 1%3%1%2%4%2%2%3%2%1%3%3%2%1%4%2%3%2%Scotland campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 7534237516131-15713Worked with the Better 1%1%1%2%1%2%2%1%*3%1%2%1%-1%1%2%1%Together campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 16891108605734948085544038415035147112259None 34%18%36%30%20%16%27%23%28%27%26%21%26%32%24%28%23%26% 161811510813614852586181533Don't Know 3%4%4%2%4%4%4%2%5%4%3%1%3%5%4%4%3%3% Page 10 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 4 Q2C. And which, if any, of these do you intend to do before the referendum on 18th September 2014? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  12. 12. REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTIONAREAAREA Don'tMid &NorthEast/ knowNoYesSouthWestGlasgowCentralLothiansFifeEastH&INorthSouthWestTotal 275432289134134108117136113128126267336393996Unweighted base 29141629013013013013912912912980232353411996Weighted base 17329923391959310692957458147248309704Any (Net) 59%72%80%70%73%72%76%71%74%57%73%63%70%75%71% 1171951646057608447784941109160207476Watched special TV 40%47%57%46%44%46%60%36%60%38%52%47%45%50%48%programmes about the referendum (not including the news) 7101423564316971531Written to or emailed a 2%2%5%2%3%4%5%3%2%1%8%4%2%4%3%newspaper 7113659111851225153353Contributed to online 2%3%12%3%7%8%13%4%1%2%2%2%4%8%5%discussions 112211155556873676766523194171213478Talked about the 39%51%54%42%53%57%48%51%51%40%39%40%48%52%48%referendum with friends / family 4168921422333542232013367887200Read any of the White 14%16%32%10%17%25%25%32%17%15%16%15%22%21%20%Paper 252666101026101822912254348117Attended a public 8%6%23%8%7%20%7%14%17%7%15%11%12%12%12%meeting / forum 1-2142734-13311923Worked with the Yes *-7%3%1%5%2%3%-1%3%1%3%2%2%Scotland campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 210--123212125513Worked with the Better 1%3%--1%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%Together campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 1011075136243530343349187410085259None 35%26%18%28%19%27%22%26%25%38%23%32%28%21%26% 171063102431741251633Don't Know 6%3%2%2%8%1%3%2%1%5%4%5%2%4%3% Page 11 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 4 Q2C. And which, if any, of these do you intend to do before the referendum on 18th September 2014? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  13. 13. VOTE IN 2011LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING Not certai n /NotCertaiCertai DidCan'tverycertain notNotn/very notremembLibConserlikelyntoveryQuiteVeryCertailikely voteerOtherSNPDemLabourvative(Net)(Net)votelikelylikelylikelyn(Net)Total 25090222455726072163268305281105728833996Unweighted base 36412962284015970195308406590113688801996Weighted base 23187518332112538015910214979545624704Any (Net) 63%67%89%80%82%70%76%41%51%24%33%54%70%79%78%71% 13756314222773937952102558381439476Watched special TV 38%43%47%63%55%49%56%19%31%5%15%27%52%55%55%48%programmes about the referendum (not including the news) 101-1413269--63222531Written to or emailed a 3%1%-6%2%2%3%3%3%--6%3%3%3%3%newspaper 25-12213269-243454853Contributed to online 7%-13%10%2%2%3%3%3%-3%4%3%7%6%5%discussions 16653412323743551986133247380427478Talked about the 45%41%65%54%58%47%50%26%32%15%20%35%41%55%53%48%referendum with friends / family 58231729261110261-916174190200Read any of the White 16%18%19%32%23%17%15%5%9%3%-10%15%25%24%20%Paper 2361575195310-217106114117Attended a public 6%4%25%25%14%12%7%2%3%-2%2%6%15%14%12%meeting / forum 9--14---341-12182023Worked with the Yes 2%--6%---1%1%3%-2%1%3%3%2%Scotland campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 2--2*2622--2-101013Worked with the Better 1%--1%1%1%8%1%1%--3%-1%1%1%Together campaign (e.g. handed out leaflets, canvassing etc.) 114371426441510613530393830123153259None 31%29%11%18%15%28%21%54%44%73%60%42%26%18%19%26% 195-413210141544192433Don't Know 5%4%-2%3%2%3%5%5%3%7%4%4%3%3%3% Page 12 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 4 Q2C. And which, if any, of these do you intend to do before the referendum on 18th September 2014? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  14. 14. SEGSEGAGESEX C2DEABC1DEC2C1AB55+35-5416-3465+55-6445-5435-4425-3416-24FemaleMaleTotal 543453356187268185450289257292158168121134123541455996Unweighted base 499497298201283214355341300204151178162156144518478996Weighted base 36144021914224419731928220018613315812510595399402801Any certain / very likely 72%89%74%70%86%92%90%83%67%91%88%88%77%67%66%77%84%80%(Net) 2993891811182101792952461471721231411047968346342688Certain to vote 60%78%61%59%74%84%83%72%49%85%81%79%64%51%47%67%71%69% 6152382334182337531310162026275360113Very likely to vote 12%10%13%12%12%8%7%11%18%7%6%9%13%16%19%10%13%11% 60303624171318343810812221820513990Quite likely to vote 12%6%12%12%6%6%5%10%13%5%5%7%14%12%14%10%8%9% 4618301614510154055692218461965Not very likely to vote 9%4%10%8%5%2%3%4%13%2%3%3%6%14%13%9%4%7% 32813198-992236361111221840Certain not to vote 6%2%4%10%3%-3%3%7%2%4%2%4%7%8%4%4%4% Page 13 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 5 Q3. How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  15. 15. REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTIONAREAAREA Don'tMid &NorthEast/ knowNoYesSouthWestGlasgowCentralLothiansFifeEastH&INorthSouthWestTotal 275432289134134108117136113128126267336393996Unweighted base 29141629013013013013912912912980232353411996Weighted base 17935127097107991221121069462178279344801Any certain / very likely 62%85%93%75%83%77%88%86%82%73%78%77%79%84%80%(Net) 14130324483938210899957453146248294688Certain to vote 49%73%84%64%72%63%78%76%73%57%67%63%70%72%69% 374927141418141311219323150113Very likely to vote 13%12%9%11%11%14%10%10%8%16%11%14%9%12%11% 572211141214891116722333590Quite likely to vote 20%5%4%11%9%11%5%7%9%12%8%10%9%9%9% 372441061135716824192165Not very likely to vote 13%6%1%7%4%9%2%4%6%12%10%10%6%5%7% 18194955745438221140Certain not to vote 6%5%1%7%4%4%5%3%4%3%3%3%6%3%4% Page 14 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 5 Q3. How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  16. 16. VOTE IN 2011LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING Not certai n /NotCertaiCertai DidCan'tverycertain notNotn/very notremembLibConserlikelyntoveryQuiteVeryCertailikely voteerOtherSNPDemLabourvative(Net)(Net)votelikelylikelylikelyn(Net)Total 25090222455726072163268305281105728833996Unweighted base 36412962284015970195308406590113688801996Weighted base 22710562153714567-113---113688801801Any certain / very likely 62%81%100%94%93%91%96%-37%---100%100%100%80%(Net) 1748452003412764------688688688Certain to vote 48%65%90%88%86%80%92%------100%86%69% 53211153183-113---113-113113Very likely to vote 15%16%10%6%7%11%4%-37%---100%-14%11% 4815-1111239090--90---90Quite likely to vote 13%12%-5%2%8%4%46%29%--100%---9% 537-311-6565-65----65Not very likely to vote 15%6%-1%2%1%-33%21%-100%----7% 372--11-404040-----40Certain not to vote 10%1%--3%*-21%13%100%-----4% Page 15 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 5 Q3. How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  17. 17. SEGSEGAGESEX C2DEABC1DEC2C1AB55+35-5416-3465+55-6445-5435-4425-3416-24FemaleMaleTotal 543453356187268185450289257292158168121134123541455996Unweighted base 499497298201283214355341300204151178162156144518478996Weighted base 2111531248710152501112032030486396107170194364Did not vote 42%31%42%43%36%24%14%33%68%10%20%27%39%62%75%33%41%37% 23471112182940245291115941452470Conservative 5%9%4%6%6%14%11%7%2%14%7%9%6%3%1%9%5%7% 867347394033765627492734221898476159Labour 17%15%16%19%14%15%21%17%9%24%18%19%14%11%7%16%16%16% 122884141417139988563251540Liberal Democrat 2%6%3%2%5%6%5%4%3%4%5%4%3%4%2%5%3%4% 10212665366660111882860514543199111117228S.N.P. 20%25%22%18%23%28%31%26%9%29%34%25%27%12%6%21%25%23% 241132321312-**426Other candidate or party *1%**1%1%1%1%*1%1%1%-**1%*1% 6466402342245846263622271912137950129Can't remember 13%13%14%12%15%11%16%13%9%17%15%15%12%8%9%15%10%13% Page 16 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 6 Q4. The last Scottish Parliament election was held in May 2011. For which party did you vote for your constituency MSP in that election? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  18. 18. REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTIONAREAAREA Don'tMid &NorthEast/ knowNoYesSouthWestGlasgowCentralLothiansFifeEastH&INorthSouthWestTotal 275432289134134108117136113128126267336393996Unweighted base 29141629013013013013912912912980232353411996Weighted base 12415783575951464237502277124163364Did not vote 43%38%29%44%46%40%33%32%28%38%28%33%35%40%37% 76038259171210619331870Conservative 2%14%1%6%2%4%7%13%10%8%7%8%9%4%7% 469123192221282225148265677159Labour 16%22%8%15%17%16%20%17%19%11%10%11%16%19%16% 92653363594711141540Liberal Democrat 3%6%2%2%3%4%2%4%7%3%9%5%4%4%4% 43321532826243633233226618483228S.N.P. 15%8%53%22%20%18%26%25%18%24%32%26%24%20%23% 132*-111*112126Other candidate or party *1%1%*-*1%1%*1%1%1%*1%1% 6148201317221610231910364152129Can't remember 21%12%7%10%13%17%11%7%18%15%13%15%12%13%13% Page 17 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 6 Q4. The last Scottish Parliament election was held in May 2011. For which party did you vote for your constituency MSP in that election? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014
  19. 19. VOTE IN 2011LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING Not certai n /NotCertaiCertai DidCan'tverycertain notNotn/very notremembLibConserlikelyntoveryQuiteVeryCertailikely voteerOtherSNPDemLabourvative(Net)(Net)votelikelylikelylikelyn(Net)Total 25090222455726072163268305281105728833996Unweighted base 36412962284015970195308406590113688801996Weighted base 364------13819137534853174227364Did not vote 100%------71%62%92%82%53%47%25%28%37% ------7036--33646770Conservative ------100%2%2%--3%2%9%8%7% -----159-1432111218127145159Labour -----100%-7%10%1%2%14%16%18%18%16% ----40--351113343740Liberal Democrat ----100%--1%2%2%1%1%3%5%5%4% ---228---1328-31115200215228S.N.P. ---100%---7%9%-4%12%13%29%27%23% --6-----1---1566Other candidate or party --100%-----*---1%1%1%1% -129-----244527152184105129Can't remember -100%-----12%15%4%11%17%19%12%13%13% Page 18 SCOTTISH OPINION SURVEY - INDEPENDENCE : January 2014 : JN121867 Table 6 Q4. The last Scottish Parliament election was held in May 2011. For which party did you vote for your constituency MSP in that election? BASE: All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 28th January - 6th February 2014

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