Tucson Outlooks Talk

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My presentation from the Tucson Outlooks Conference discussing some of the common misperceptions about immigration.

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  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
  • An estimated 14,748 persons were murdered nationwide in 2010. If the undocumented committed 9,000 of them, that means they committed 61% of the crime. Yeah, sure.\n\nThis was a 4.2 percent decrease from the 2009 estimate, a 14.8 percent decrease from the 2006 figure, and an 8.0 percent decrease from the 2001 estimate. \n
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  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • EXAMPLE #1: The Birthright Fallacy\n\n1. Bringing in a Spouse, of a US citizen: This is the fastest possible way to become a U.S. citizen - 3 years\n2. Bringing in minor child or parent: This process depends on whether the child is a minor or not, single or married. Minor children can file for green cards immediately, but cannot apply for citizenship status for an additional five years.\n3. Single or adult children and siblings can apply immediately, but the wait times depend on the country of origin and annual limits set by Congress. Typically, the wait is 11-22 years.\n\nNo U.S. citizen can "sponsor" someone to become a U.S. Citizen until they reach the age of 21. The suggestion that U.S. children of undocumented parents can somehow speed up their parent's entry into the country legally is without merit. The shortest amount of time it would take would be 38 years, but likely never. For siblings, it's even worse, taking up to 53 years.\n
  • Example #5 - Jobs fallacy\n\nThese next two slides tell an amazing tale. We’re told to believe that wherever there are immigrant workers, there is high unemployment. These maps shows that simply isn’t the case. \n
  • http://www.dol.ks.gov/LMIS/newsrel/pr1013/map.html\n\nThe other question this begs is what happens to those jobs in the processing plants if ill-conceived immigration laws are passed? What the business owners are telling the legislature and their trade associations, is they will close the plants and move them to where they can get the labor, most likely Mexico. So what impact with THAT decision have on the Kansas economy?\n
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  • Farm wages in agriculture are higher than the state minimum wage and often include piece-work rates that can add significantly to workers wages.\n
  • Farm wages in agriculture are higher than the state minimum wage and often include piece-work rates that can add significantly to workers wages.\n
  • Farm wages in agriculture are higher than the state minimum wage and often include piece-work rates that can add significantly to workers wages.\n
  • EXAMPLE #4: How exaggerating data distorts public perceptions of the problem.\n\nThis table highlights some of the more egregious falsehoods told on a daily basis about immigrants in Arizona. The data for Texas is similar, but all highlight the problems of rhetoric of "hot air."\n\nPrison population data: http://www.azcorrections.gov/adc/reports/Zoya_ethnic.aspx\nEducation costs data: Estimates based on larger estimate of http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_ill_pe_2010.pdf or http://www.migrationinformation.org/DataHub/charts/MPIDataHub-Children-in-immigrant-families.xls (12.2% or 61,507 undocumented population <=17 yrs x $6,170 = $379,498,190)\nHealth care costs data: Illegal Immigration: Perceptions and Realities, ASU Morrison Inst.\nTax Payments data: “A Rising Tide or a Shrinking Pie,” CAP, http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/special-reports/rising-tide-or-shrinking-pie \n\n\n
  • SB1070 has had a brutal impact on Arizona’s economy already, but what would happen if all aspects of SB1070 were passed into law? \n\nSuffice it to say, the economic and jobs damage would be enormous. If SB1070 is fully implemented, the impacts on Arizona’s economy would be worse than during the last recession by doubling the numbers of lost jobs (275,000 to 581,000) and reducing Gross State Product by $48.8B and tax revenues by $4.2B. \n\nThere has to be a better way and there are better ways. What’s important is that you hear about them.\n\nSource: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/03/rising_tide.html \n
  • EXAMPLE #4 continued: How exaggerating data distorts public perceptions of the problem.\n\nCrime statistics claims don’t match up with reality.\n\nFederal Prison data: http://www.bop.gov/news/quick.jsp#2 \nAZ Prison data: http://www.azcorrections.gov/adc/reports/Zoya_ethnic.aspx\nViolent crime data: http://www.azdps.gov/About/Reports/Crime_In_Arizona/\nHate crime data: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr#hate\nID Theft data: http://www.adc.state.az.us/BudgetHearings2012.pdf\n
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  • The number of immigration-related bills introduced in 2011\n
  • The number of immigration-related bills passed in 2011\n
  • The success rate of immigration-related bills passed in 2011\n
  • The percentage of immigration-related bills failed in 2011.\n
  • The percentage of immigration-related bills failed in 2011.\n
  • The number of Arizona-style SB1070 copycat bills introduced in 2011\n
  • The number of Arizona-style SB1070 copycat bills passed in 2011\n
  • The percentage of Arizona-style SB1070 copycat bills passed in 2011\n
  • The percentage of Arizona-style SB1070 copycat bills failing in 2011\n
  • The percentage of Arizona-style SB1070 copycat bills failing in 2011\n
  • The greatest threat to Democracy is having a public that thinks it is fully informed, but really isn’t very well informed at all. Too often in this digital age, we jump right to the debate without having the facts. We need good, quality journalism so we the citizens of the United States, who live in a very complex world are able to say “These are the facts. I know what the facts are and I’m going to make my decision as an informed citizen.”\n\nThree things you need to know about this presentation\nParty and ideology have nothing to do with this presentation. It’s only intent is to present facts. \nIt’s purpose is to challenge false beliefs and preconceived notions.\nThe information presented herein are based on verifiable public data obtained from recognized sources with sources listed at the bottom of each slide.\n
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  • Tucson Outlooks Talk

    1. 1. Getting It RightHow disinformation drives the immigrationdebate and what you can do to fix itTucson Outlooks ConferenceTodd LandfriedArizona Employers for Immigration Reform 1
    2. 2. “Its not what you dont know thatgets you into trouble. Its what youknow for sure that just aint so.” Mark Twain 2
    3. 3. How’d We Get Here? 3
    4. 4. How’d We Get Here? Partisanship, ideology and fear are driving this issue 3
    5. 5. How’d We Get Here? Partisanship, ideology and fear are driving this issue Myths, distortions and outright lies are more common than fact 3
    6. 6. How’d We Get Here? Partisanship, ideology and fear are driving this issue Myths, distortions and outright lies are more common than fact Rhetoric makes scapegoats of employers, workers and the federal government, causing them to respond with fear and inaction 3
    7. 7. How’d We Get Here? Partisanship, ideology and fear are driving this issue Myths, distortions and outright lies are more common than fact Rhetoric makes scapegoats of employers, workers and the federal government, causing them to respond with fear and inaction Polarizes people on moral, ethnic and economic grounds 3
    8. 8. How’d We Get Here? Partisanship, ideology and fear are driving this issue Myths, distortions and outright lies are more common than fact Rhetoric makes scapegoats of employers, workers and the federal government, causing them to respond with fear and inaction Polarizes people on moral, ethnic and economic grounds A potent “third-rail” issue where real solutions aren’t an option 3
    9. 9. Emotion Trumps Reason 4
    10. 10. Emotion Trumps Reason Groups with clear biases, outrageous claims and questionable research are cited as experts -- without challenge FAIR → CIS → NumbersUSA 4
    11. 11. Emotion Trumps Reason Groups with clear biases, outrageous claims and questionable research are cited as experts -- without challenge FAIR → CIS → NumbersUSA Solid academic research ignored because of alleged or manufactured “bias” 4
    12. 12. Emotion Trumps Reason Groups with clear biases, outrageous claims and questionable research are cited as experts -- without challenge FAIR → CIS → NumbersUSA Solid academic research ignored because of alleged or manufactured “bias” “On-the-ground” expertise and data are ignored 4
    13. 13. Emotion Trumps Reason Groups with clear biases, outrageous claims and questionable research are cited as experts -- without challenge FAIR → CIS → NumbersUSA Solid academic research ignored because of alleged or manufactured “bias” “On-the-ground” expertise and data are ignored Media, business, community leaders fail to hold proponents accountable - it is nothing short of a lack of courage 4
    14. 14. Why No Accountability? 5
    15. 15. Why No Accountability? They believe what they’re told, e.g., “Don’t question authority” They’re not aware they’re being lied to: Why? No access to alternative information or solutions to prove otherwise Intimidated into silence or complacency No intellectual curiosity: “where ignorance is bliss, ‘tis folly to be wise” Don’t want to know the truth 5
    16. 16. “A salient characteristic of thecurrent debate on U.S.immigration policy is the highratio of hot air to data.” Dr. Douglas Massey Co-director, Mexican Migration Project Princeton University mmp.opr.princeton.edu 6
    17. 17. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 7
    18. 18. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 7
    19. 19. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 7
    20. 20. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 7
    21. 21. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 7
    22. 22. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 7
    23. 23. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 7
    24. 24. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 7
    25. 25. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 7
    26. 26. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 7
    27. 27. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 8
    28. 28. Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 8
    29. 29. “A lie gets halfway around the worldbefore the truth gets its boots on.” Charles Haddon Spurgeon 19th Century Minister 9
    30. 30. Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 10
    31. 31. Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 10
    32. 32. Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 3/14/12 10
    33. 33. PolitiFact Immigration ChecksSource: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 203 11
    34. 34. PolitiFact Immigration Checks Pants On Mostly Mostly FALSE Half True TRUE Fire False True 19 56 33 41 31 23 9.4% 27.6% 16.3% 20.25 15.3% 11.3% Wrong 88.7% 11.3%Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 203 11
    35. 35. PolitiFact Immigration Checks Pants On Mostly Mostly FALSE Half True TRUE Fire False True 19 56 33 41 31 23 9.4% 27.6% 16.3% 20.25 15.3% 11.3% Wrong 88.7% 11.3%Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 203 11
    36. 36. Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 1/18/12. N = 203 12
    37. 37. 9 out of 10Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 1/18/12. N = 203 12
    38. 38. o n r of 10 W g 9 outSource: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 1/18/12. N = 203 12
    39. 39. AZ FactCheck: ImmigrationSource: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49 13
    40. 40. AZ FactCheck: Immigration Mostly Somewhat False FALSE Somewhat True Mostly True TRUE False 29 4 8 4 4 59.2% 8.2% 16.3% 8.2% 8.2% Wrong 91.8% 8.2%Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49 13
    41. 41. AZ FactCheck: Immigration Mostly Somewhat False FALSE Somewhat True Mostly True TRUE False 29 4 8 4 4 59.2% 8.2% 16.3% 8.2% 8.2% Wrong 91.8% 8.2%Source: AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49 13
    42. 42. Source: AZ Fact Check, Immigration list checked 1/18/11. N = 57 14
    43. 43. 9 out of 10Source: AZ Fact Check, Immigration list checked 1/18/11. N = 57 14
    44. 44. o n r of 10 W g 9 outSource: AZ Fact Check, Immigration list checked 1/18/11. N = 57 14
    45. 45. Birthright Fallacy U.S. Citizen Citizen ChildSource: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service 15
    46. 46. Birthright Fallacy U.S. Citizen Spouse 3 years Minor Child 7 years Sibling 22 years Citizen Child Parents Siblings 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 YearsSource: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service 15
    47. 47. Birthright Fallacy U.S. Citizen Spouse 3 years Minor Child 7 years Sibling 22 years Citizen Child Parents Ineligible Siblings Ineligible 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 YearsSource: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service 15
    48. 48. Birthright Fallacy U.S. Citizen Spouse 3 years Minor Child 7 years Sibling 22 years Citizen Child Parents Ineligible Penalty Siblings Ineligible Penalty 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 YearsSource: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service 15
    49. 49. Birthright Fallacy U.S. Citizen Spouse 3 years Minor Child 7 years Sibling 22 years Citizen Child Parents Ineligible Penalty Wait Siblings Ineligible Penalty Wait 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 YearsSource: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service 15
    50. 50. Birthright Fallacy U.S. Citizen Spouse 3 years Minor Child 7 years Sibling 22 years Citizen Child Parents Ineligible Penalty Wait 38 years Siblings Ineligible Penalty Wait 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 YearsSource: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service 15
    51. 51. Birthright Fallacy U.S. Citizen Spouse 3 years Minor Child 7 years Sibling 22 years Citizen Child Parents Ineligible Penalty Wait 38 years Siblings Ineligible Penalty Wait 53 years 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 YearsSource: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service 15
    52. 52. Unemployment Fallacy 16
    53. 53. Unemployment FallacySource: Kansas Dept. Of Labor 17
    54. 54. Unemployment Fallacy2010 Census: Hispanic Population 18
    55. 55. Unemployment FallacyDecember 2010 Unemployment Rate 19
    56. 56. Agriculture Wage Fallacy Arizona Minimum Wage Arizona AEWRSource: US Dept. Of Agriculture, http://www.usda.gov/oce/labor/Files/aewr_data.xls 20
    57. 57. Agriculture Wage Fallacy Arizona Minimum Wage Arizona AEWR $11.00 $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 1990 1992 1994 1997 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: US Dept. Of Agriculture, http://www.usda.gov/oce/labor/Files/aewr_data.xls 20
    58. 58. Agriculture Wage Fallacy Arizona Minimum Wage Arizona AEWR $11.00 $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 1990 1992 1994 1997 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: US Dept. Of Agriculture, http://www.usda.gov/oce/labor/Files/aewr_data.xls 20
    59. 59. Economic FallaciesUnauthorized Claim Reality Difference Education Costs $810M $379M +214% Health Costs $400M $24M +1,600% Tax Payments $257M $2.84B -1,100% 21
    60. 60. Economics of Population Loss Immigrant Pop. Gross State Tax Revenue Income Loss Job Loss Decline Product Loss Loss 15% $8.3B $5.3B 99,000 $636M 30% $14.4B $9.4B 172,000 $1.27B 50% $20B $15.7B 291,000 $2.11B 100% $48.8B $29.5B 581,000 $4.22BSource: "A Rising Tide or a Shrinking Pie," M. Fitz and R. Hinojosa, Immigration Policy Council, March, 2011. 22
    61. 61. Crime Fallacies Unauthorized Claim Reality Difference % in Federal Prison 35% 17.5% +200% % in AZ Prisons* 33% 13.2% +240% Violent Crime 18.6% 15.2% +122% Drop 3X US Avg. Hate Crime Not a problem +68% +6,800% Increase ‘07-’10 Identity Theft 100% 0.9% -99.1%* Includes green card and undocumented prisoners 23
    62. 62. Source: http://www.azcorrections.gov/data_info_081111.pdf 24
    63. 63. 25
    64. 64. 25
    65. 65. 25
    66. 66. 25
    67. 67. 25
    68. 68. Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 26
    69. 69. 1,592Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 26
    70. 70. Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 27
    71. 71. 162Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 27
    72. 72. Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 28
    73. 73. 10%Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 28
    74. 74. Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 29
    75. 75. 90%Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 29
    76. 76. Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 30
    77. 77. 30Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 30
    78. 78. Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 31
    79. 79. 5Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 31
    80. 80. Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 32
    81. 81. 16%Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 32
    82. 82. Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 33
    83. 83. 84%Source: National Council of State Legislators, 2011 Legislative Summary 33
    84. 84. “The greatest threat to democracyis having a public that thinks it isfully informed, but really isn’t verywell informed at all.” Linda Foley 34
    85. 85. Been There, Done That Restrictive immigration laws are not new to our country Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, The Gentleman’s Agreement of 1907, The Immigration Act of 1924, and Bracero Program of 1942 In the last several years, restrictive laws have gained favor again All started with one sponsor at the city, county and state level All relied upon the same bad data we’ve just discussed So what were their results? 35
    86. 86. Sound Good? 36
    87. 87. Sound Good?✓Shrinking workforce✓Significant population loss✓Significantly fewer consumers✓Business layoffs & closures✓Broad tax base decline✓Foreclosures up, values down✓Damage to business climate✓Loss of investment interest 36
    88. 88. Impacts In Other Jurisdictions 37
    89. 89. Impacts In Other Jurisdictions Prince William County, VA (2007) - $14.9M to train & enforce county officers, not county jurisdictional officers; foreclosure rate 3X regional rate; business closures up 45% Farmer’s Branch, TX (2007) - $5M in lawsuit costs, increased vacancy rates, lower property values, businesses closed Hazelton, PA (2007) - $5M in lawsuit costs, increased foreclosure and vacancy rates, lower property values, businesses closed 37
    90. 90. Impacts In Other JurisdictionsSource: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of the Oklahoma Taxpayer and Citizen Protection Act of 2007 38
    91. 91. Impacts In Other Jurisdictions Oklahoma Taxpayer & Citizen Protection Act (2007) - Oklahoma Bankers Association study found the loss of 90,000 unauthorized workers/families resulted in net Gross State Product loss of $1.9B Urban Institute found negligible impact on savings on public services from departure of the undocumented because by law they’re ineligible for those benefits in the first placeSource: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of the Oklahoma Taxpayer and Citizen Protection Act of 2007 38
    92. 92. State of ArizonaSource: Public Policy Institute of California. www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_311MLR.pdf 39
    93. 93. State of Arizona Impacts of Legal Arizona Workers Act (2007) Has resulted in the hiring of fewer undocumented workers Has reduced undocumented population by 92,000 unrelated to the recession BUT - a dramatic shift to cash-based, self-employment, thus weakening the tax base Reduced size of the labor pool in construction, retail, restaurant, hospitality and agriculture businessesSource: Public Policy Institute of California. www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_311MLR.pdf 39
    94. 94. State of Arizona 40
    95. 95. State of Arizona Impacts of SB 1070 (2010) $5M+ to train law enforcement $186M in near-term convention and related tourism losses $14.4B loss in Arizona GSP with departure of 30% undocumented workers and families; $48.4B if they all leave 172,000 related job losses $40.7M loss in state tax revenues 40
    96. 96. They Did ItAnywayAlabamaIndianaGeorgiaSouth CarolinaUtah 41
    97. 97. Georgia: Following AZ’s Lead 42
    98. 98. Georgia: Following AZ’s Lead Ignoring history and evidence of policy failures, GA bill was signed on May 12, 2011 Georgia felt the impact within days Farmers lost field workers during prime spring harvest season and the state’s Farm Bureau projected immediate losses at $330M Gov. Deal called for impact study 14 days AFTER the law was passed “Pilot” probationer employment program for agriculture failed miserably: needed 11,000 and 14 showed up and two remained a week later 42
    99. 99. Prison Farm Labor? 43
    100. 100. Prison Farm Labor?How many support giving prison laborers this knife? 43
    101. 101. Prison Farm Labor?How many support giving prison laborers this knife? 12” 43
    102. 102. Alabama: Following AZ’s Lead 44
    103. 103. Alabama: Following AZ’s Lead Alabama’s law signed on June 9, 2011 Alabama felt the impact within days Construction industry stalled as workers leave, slowing down rebuilding process following spring tornado storms Many businesses will lay off workers or close because they have no expectation that “American” workers will do the work Long-term growers of crops that are hand-picked are switching to crops that can be mechanized 44
    104. 104. Quiz Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of... 45
    105. 105. Quiz Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of... INSANITY 45
    106. 106. Quiz Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of... INSANITY 45
    107. 107. This Doesn’t Work Non-federal immigration laws have not worked anywhere No study exists that shows positive impacts of any state-level immigration law All studies show negative economic and social consequences Successful Russell Pearce recall shows sensible immigration reform can be a winning campaign issue Federal reform is impossible without state and local pressure 46
    108. 108. Taking Charge of Change Other solutions exist that can address the immigration problem Ellis Island Centers on the border Maricopa C.A. Bill Montgomery’s S.A.N.E. Immigration plan No need to grant amnesty Focus on addressing labor and security issues at the same time Solving the labor issue makes security more feasible more quickly 47
    109. 109. Taking Charge of Change Stop believing everything you hear - 9 times out of 10 it’s wrong Stop remaining silent - demand changes to bad laws Business, faith, legal, and community leaders must speak out together Start demanding state and federal candidates talk about their solutions and demand specific timelines for action Get involved in business coalitions like AZEIR, Real Arizona, etc. 48
    110. 110. Getting Involved Works! The approach of speaking out, building coalitions, education, proactive media use and legislative interaction works: Utah - - along with the Utah Compact (another coalition effort), defeated HB 70 and spawned creation of innovative guest worker programs in 2011 and retries in 2012 Kansas - defeated Kris Kobach’s copycats in 2011 & 2012 Texas - defeated copycat bills in regular and special legislative session Arizona - defeated five SB1070 follow-on bills in 2011 49
    111. 111. Take-aways Bad data + fear + anger = bad policy and bad laws Misinformation, distortions, half-truths, lies and fear are driving the debate and are justifying extreme and exaggerated actions Arizona’s approach has been tried before and failed everywhere Stop being complacent and get involved Demand better solutions - our economic future depends on it 50
    112. 112. Thank YouTodd LandfriedArizona Employers for Immigration ReformEmail: todd@azeir.orgwww.azeir.org 51

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