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Risk Management Presenter Torsten J. Koerting www.torstenkoerting.com Session #
T H A N K Y O U
www.torstenkoerting.com
What are we going totalk about today ,[object Object]
Get more ideas
Interact and share
Increase your toolbox,[object Object]
Introduction Why  Project Register Risk Assessment Effective Process Risk Profile presentation Project Health Check Agenda
[object Object],… A U D I E N C E …
Introduction Why  Project Register Risk Assessment Effective Process Risk Profile presentation Project Health Check Agenda
Why does Risk Management becomes more important ? Why does Risk Management becomesMORE and more important ?
The World is changing The World is flat Inconvenient Truth
The Fall of the Berlin Wall The Internet Work-Flow Software Open-Sourcing Outsourcing Off-Shoring Supply-Chaining In-Sourcing In-Forming Information Steroids The World is flat
Global Warming Sea Levels rising Water shortage More storms than ever Lakes disappear More wildfires Shortage in Resources Resource shortage War for resources Inconvenient Truth
Financial Crisis Terrorism Increase of Knowledge Growth in Population Flatter Warmer The World is changing
? What does all this mean for us as the Project Managers ?
The Impact : Increased Complexity Increased Competition Dynamics of Change ? ? ?
Introduction Why  Project Register Risk Assessment Effective Process Risk Profile presentation Project Health Check Agenda
RiskMgmt Standard (AS/NZS 4360)
Risk Register ,[object Object]
What is it and how is it structured
Critical success factors
Audience
Discuss different optionsPrivate, Government, etc.and discussCharacteristics, Pro’s and Con’s,[object Object]
their grading in terms of likelihood of occurring and seriousness of impact on the project
initial plans for mitigating each high level risk
the costs and responsibilities of the prescribed mitigation strategies and subsequent results.,[object Object]
an assessment of the likelihood it will occur and the possible seriousness/impact if it does occur (low, medium, high)
a grading of each risk according to company standards
who is responsible for managing the risk
an outline of proposed mitigation actions (preventative and contingency)
in larger projects, costings for each mitigation strategy,[object Object]
document risk mitigation strategies being pursued in response to the identified risks and their grading in terms of likelihood and seriousness
provide the Project Sponsor, Steering Committee/senior management with a documented framework from which risk status can be reported
ensure the communication of risk management issues to key stakeholders
provide a mechanism for seeking and acting on feedback to encourage the involvement of the key stakeholders
identify the mitigation actions required for implementation of the risk management plan and associated costings,[object Object]
Needs to be up to date	Process
Needs to be complete	special Risks
Needs to be communicated	Presentation,[object Object]
Qualitative AnalysisType, Probability, Impact
Quantitative AnalysisProbability (%), Effect ($ or days)
Response StrategyStrategy, Response Action, Affected Phase
Monitoring and ControlResponsibility, Date, Comments,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Easy to use
Information in one spot
Covers all relevant areas
Not overburdened
Con’s
No View  (Risk and Cost) after Likelihood
Doesn’t identify Options
No Comprehensive Action,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Comprehensive Calculation(good for presentation later one)
All in one place
Con’s
Might overburden immature organizations or staff
Hard to explain
Still subjective,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Straight forward
Simple
Con’s
Hard to present risk profile based on it
Format
Cost of Risk vs. Cost of Mitigation,[object Object],[object Object]
Risk Register – Structureoption 4 (Finance / Banking) ,[object Object],Rating from project-management of impacts to the project-success   6 = critical   5 = very high   4 = high   3 = medium   2 = low   1 = almost not present Example: 4 = Medium if the profitability of the project is in question. 2 = low, if  an increase in budget or overdrawing of a Budget is possible  Calculation of probability that risk will happen (in %) Example: increasing of charge-rate are established by controlling-department. in this case the probability is 100 % Estimated costs (max. loss-occurrence) to the project, if risk will happen Cost Target Date Quality Business Client Analyzed Closed Issue New Communicated Escalated
Risk Register – Structureoption 4 (Finance / Banking) ,[object Object],[object Object]
Risk Register – Structureoption 4 (Finance / Banking) ,[object Object],Likelihood that the described risk can still enter after the carried out risk reduction measures. information in %)   6 = critical   5 = very high   4 = high   3 = medium   2 = low   1 = nearly not present   0 = not present Appraisal of the project management for which effect the called risk has on the project success after the carried out risk reduction measures.     6 = critical   5 = very high   4 = high   3 = medium   2 = low   1 = nearly not present   0 = not present
Risk Register – Structure option 4 (Finance / Banking) ,[object Object]
Very comprehensive
Great for analysis
Clear Structure and guidance
Con’s
Needs two tabs for Risk and Mitigation
Might overburden some,[object Object]
What fieldshave you seen ?
Challenges ?… A U D I E N C E …
Risk Register – Summary ! ,[object Object]
Always need to be adapted to companies standards and maturity
Should support critical success factors relevant for your company,[object Object]
Introduction Why  Project Register Risk Assessment Effective Process Risk Profile presentation Project Health Check Agenda
RiskMgmt Standard (AS/NZS 4360)
Risk Assessment - Definition ,[object Object]
Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative and qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized threat (also called hazard).,[object Object]
Identify risks without knowingwhat a risk is
Keep the audience in the room and engaged
Take them on a journey,[object Object]
Go based on questionnaire !
Domains of Change(Location, Data, Technology, Processes, People, etc.)
The ‘Diamond Model’,[object Object]
Establish the Context
Identify Risks
Analyse and Evaluate
Develop Risk Treatment,[object Object]
How to run a Risk Assessment with a group of lower maturity,[object Object]
The ‘Diamond Model’ ,[object Object]
4 Dimensions
Technology
Novelty
Pace
Complexity,[object Object]
The Diamond Model Technology Super-high-tech High-tech Medium-tech Low-tech Assembly System Array Novelty Complexity Derivative Platform Breakthrough Regular Fast/competitive Time-critical Blitz Pace
Technology ,[object Object]
Impact on Design, Testing, required communication and number of design cycles needed
Identifies the technical competence needed by Project Manager and Team,[object Object]
Medium-tech projects are based on existing technology but incorporate new technology
High-tech projects are projects where most of the technology is new but do exist at project initiation
Super-high-tech projects are based on new technologies that do NOT exist at project initiation and must be developed during the project,[object Object]
Novelty ,[object Object]
Impacton how to manage the project and which approach is best
Identifiesreliability of market research, the time it takes to define requirements and specific marketing stages / training needed,[object Object]
Platformproducts are new generations of existing product lines
Breakthroughproducts are new to the world products and transform a new concept or new idea into a new product,[object Object]
Pace ,[object Object]
Impact on autonomy of project teams, the bureaucracy, the speed of design making and the intensity of top management involvement,[object Object]
Fast / competitive projects  are driven by profit focused organizations, to create a strategic position or form a new business line
Time – critical projects have a specific end date that they need to be completed by, driven by a window of opportunity. Missing the deadline is a project failure.
Blitz projects are most urgent, most time critical. Mostly they are crisis projects and the crisis need to be solved immediately.,[object Object]
Complexity ,[object Object]
Impacton project organization and the formality of project management
Identifies… the complexity,[object Object]
Systemprojects  involve a complex collection of elements, that jointly perform multiple functions.
Arrayprojects deal with a large, widely spread collection of systems that need to function together to achieve a common purpose .,[object Object]
World Trade Center ,[object Object]
7 buildings on 16 acres and >12mio feet2 office space
Biggest shopping mall, 7 level garage and public transp.
Build into bedrock going through the table of Hudson River
50.000 people had to be transported to their office every day (100 elevators opening both sides)
Newly developed highly strength steel was used
Big economic and business consequences (1 day delay would cause US$1mio additional cost),[object Object]
Example – World Trade Center Technology Super-high-tech High-tech Medium-tech Low-tech Assembly System Array Novelty Complexity Derivative Platform Breakthrough Regular Fast/competitive Time-critical Blitz Pace
Risk Assessment approach ,[object Object]
Establish the Context
Identify Risks
Analyse and Evaluate
Develop Risk Treatment,[object Object]
A practical method (option 1) Financial Management Area Funding Membership Fees Fund Raising Funding is late Funding Is terminated Sources Cash Flow issues MajorProjects RISKS ,[object Object]

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