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LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote
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LUMA's 2014 MMA Summit Keynote

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  • 1. SURVIVING MOBILE’S ROLLER COASTER FUTURE Terence Kawaja
  • 2. Why Are You Listening to an Investment Banker?
  • 3. Unlearning What They Teach You on Wall Street THE ! RED SUIT RULE!
  • 4. Mobile Becomes a Greater Part of Everyday Life Source: KPCB
  • 5. Greatest Advertising Opportunity is Mobile… Source: KPCB Dollars  vs.  Time  Spent  in  US   Mobile   Opportunity   5% 12% 38% 25% 20%19% 10% 45% 22% 4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Print Radio TV Internet Mobile Time Spent Ad Spend
  • 6. …And Spend Continues to Increase Source: KPCB $8.8   $17.8   $32.7   $49.7   $69.1   $88.6   $108.9   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   CAGR:  52%   Global  Mobile  Ad  Spend  ($BN)  
  • 7. This is going to be awesome!
  • 8. 10 9 19 22 19 22 18 - 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Mobile M&A Deals Are Up
  • 9. 10 9 19 22 19 22 18 - 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Mobile M&A Deals Are Up, But Few Scaled Exits $100MM $230MM $350MM $240MM $321MM $275MM $675MM 7 of 110 DEALS
  • 10. $190 $287 $170 $628 $342 $218 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mobile Ad Tech Funding Continues to Decrease Source: BI Intelligence. Mobile  AdverFsing  Financings  ($  millions)  
  • 11. Layer Not a Channel
  • 12. Digital Marketing Channels Search Display Social Video Mobile ?
  • 13. Mobile is a Layer, Not a Channel Search Display Social Video
  • 14. Data Collection
  • 15. The Cookie-less World of Mobile No Cookies?! DEVICE ID
  • 16. Cross-Screen is Now a Marketing Imperative Logged  in  individuals   Direct  match  of     devices  to  people   Algorithmic  match   Perfect   Knowledge   DeterminisFc     Matching   ProbabilisFc   Matching   Types  of  Device  Matching  
  • 17. Creates“Walled Gardens”of First Party Data…
  • 18. …Continue Expansion Through 3rd-Party Networks
  • 19. 259%  Growth   2014   $32.7  Billion   Other   22%   47%   Mobile Advertising is Concentrating Source: eMarketer 2012   $8.8  Billion   Other   5%   53%  
  • 20. Marketers The  “Ad  Tech  Squeeze”   Publishers Commerce Large Digital Players Are In-Sourcing Ad Tech
  • 21. Bifurcated Market
  • 22. CPI  for  LTV   App  on  App   The Two Worlds of Mobile Advertising CPM  /  CPA   General  Marketers  
  • 23. Apps Continue To Dominate Time and Revenue $2 $3 $6 $14 $24 $38 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mobile Web Apps ($  in  billions)   Mobile  Revenue   Source: BI Intelligence 86%  OF   TIME  SPENT   ON  MOBILE   APPS   ACCOUNT  FOR  
  • 24. Increasingly More Expensive to Acquire Loyal Users Fiksu  Cost  Per  Install  Index   $0.82 $1.28 $1.01 $1.31 $0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 Jan-13 Jan-14 iOS Android Source: BI Intelligence, FIiksu 34%  INCREASE  IN     COST  PER   LOYAL  USER   OVER  LAST   YEAR  
  • 25. Freemium Apps Continue to Gain Traction Source: KPCB 88% 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 94% 12% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Free Paid
  • 26. CPI  for  LTV   App  on  App   The Two Worlds of Mobile Advertising Cost  per  Re-­‐engagement   CPM  /  CPA   General  Marketers  
  • 27. CPI  for  LTV   App  on  App   The Two Worlds of Mobile Advertising CPM  /  CPA   General  Marketers  
  • 28. Inventing New Formats
  • 29. CPI  for  LTV   App  on  App   The Two Worlds of Mobile Advertising CPM  /  CPA   General  Marketers  
  • 30. Source: Garnter, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates, eMarkter US Mobile Video Viewers MillionsofViewers Mobile Video Explosion
  • 31. ConnecFvity  Entertainment   ProducFvity   PASSIVE   ACTIVE  ATTENTIVE   Consumer Modality Matters
  • 32. Mobile banner ads are ineffective
  • 33. …and disruptive ads annoy the consumer FACILITATIVE   INTERRUPTIVE   InformaFve   Intolerable  
  • 34. Mobile-first native formats are better for marketer and consumer Consumer in control – unobtrusive ad Experience within page; Engages the consumer Leverages data to effectively target Connects through various touch points
  • 35. Content Is Critical to Branding
  • 36. Bridges Physical and Digital Worlds
  • 37. CPI  for  LTV   App  on  App   The Two Worlds of Mobile Advertising CPM  /  CPA   General  Marketers  
  • 38. Mobile Bridges the Physical & Digital Worlds
  • 39. …and Facilitates the Path to Purchase Source:  BIA/Kelsey   LocaFon   PersonalizaFon   FacilitaFon  
  • 40. Search   90%   Take   AcFon   70%   Connect     66%   Visit   36%   Purchase   23%   Review   ONLINE  OFFLINE   Connect  online   (Maps/Direc=ons,  etc.)   Call   Visit  Website   Visit  Store   Online   In-­‐store   Online-­‐Review   WOM   52%   50%   26%   13%   50%   48%   21%   15%   Mobile Flattens the Purchase Funnel
  • 41. Opportunity Ahead
  • 42. Advertising $180bn Digital Advertising $51bn Sources: eMarketer, Forrester, Gartner, The Nilson Report, LUMA estimates Programmatic $10bn Reorienting the TAM Opportunity
  • 43. Communications $1,2000bn Commerce $4,430bn eCommerce $305bn mCommerce $58bn Marketing $432bn MarTech $181bn Advertising $180bn Digital Advertising $51bn Programmatic $10bn SaaS $17bn Sources: eMarketer, Forrester, Gartner, The Nilson Report, LUMA estimates Reorienting the TAM Opportunity Payments $88bn
  • 44. Strategic Buyer LUMAscape
  • 45. Significant Recent Digital M&A Activity
  • 46. LUMA’s Content Strategy: Substance and Fun! Over 300,000 views!
  • 47. Investment Banking. Evolved. New York – Palo Alto lumapartners.com Thank you.

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