Decision Making “ Success often depends on superior information that enables superior decisions. Effective decision making combines judgment with information as an element of combat power: it requires knowing if to decide, when to decide, and what to decide. It requires….identifying important information and focusing subordinates and the staff on it.” - FM 3-0
“ The military decision making process is a process that integrates the activities of the commander, staff, and subordinate commanders in developing an operation plan or order. It establishes procedures for analyzing a mission; developing, analyzing, and comparing courses of action; selecting the best course of action; and producing an operation plan or order.”
- FM 5-0.1
How do you organize for MDMP?
5. COA Comparison 6. COA Approval 3. COA Development 4. COA Analysis (war gaming) 2. Mission Analysis 7. Orders Production Military Decision Making Process 1. Receipt of Mission 7 Steps
A single, established and proven analytical process
A tool to assist Cdrs
and staffs in developing estimates and plans
Does every decision require the full MDMP? MDMP at all? Is MDMP better for a certain type of problem? How can you leverage MDMP in your unit?
WARNORD to staff Initial recon WARNORD to all Receipt of Mission Step 1 Receipt of Mission Input New Mission Output Initial Cdr’s guidance Assessment of available time
Receipt of Mission Commander’s Initial Guidance
How to abbreviate the MDMP, if required
Initial time allocation
Liaison officers to dispatch
Initial reconnaissance to begin
Additional tasks the commander wants the staff to accomplish
Mission Analysis Output IPB: MCOO, SITTEMP, HVTL, critical events, & event temp Input New Mission Time analysis Cdr’s initial guidance Step 2 Mission Analysis Which outputs matter most? Commander’s intent and planning guidance Initial ISR plan WARNORD 2 Restated mission
Mission analysis brief
Visualize, Describe, and Direct Mission Analysis (MA) is crucial to the MDMP. It allows the commander to begin his battlefield visualization. The result of MA is defining the tactical problem and beginning the process of determining feasible solutions. How many steps in MA?
10. Plan use of available time 11. Write the restated mission 12. Conduct a mission analysis briefing 13. Approve the restated mission 14. Develop the initial commander’s intent 15. Issue the commander’s guidance 16. Issue a WARNO 17. Review facts and assumptions 1. Analyze the higher HQ’s order 2. Conduct initial IPB 3. Determine specified, implied and essential tasks 4. Review assets available 5. Determine constraints 6. Identify critical facts and assumptions 7. Conduct risk assessment 8. Determine initial CCIR 9. Determine initial recon annex Mission Analysis What else is important?
COA Development Step 3 COA Development Restated mission Cdr’s intent & Initial planning guidance Initial CCIR Initial HVTL IPB products Output Input COA statements & sketches COA brief (optional)
? RISK SIMPLICITY FLEXIBILITY EXPLOIT ENEMY VULNERABILITIES SURPRISE SPEED USE OF TERRAIN MAXIMUM USE OF LIGHT INFANTRY SUFFICIENT TIME ENDSTATE TEMPO MASS ECONOMY OF FORCE SECURITY UNITY OF COMMAND DEPTH SANCTUARY DENIAL LOC SECURITY Evaluation Criteria
Sanctuary Denial (x2): The prevention or hindrance of destabilizing force occupation of areas from which they obtain tactical benefit from the use of space, supply, personnel, or facilities. Measured as amount of combat patrols an MSC is capable of conducting within their AO over and above the commitments of Troops to Task. (More is Better) Freedom of Maneuver: Measured as total number of Battalion sized elements required for force protection at Forward Operating Bases. (Fewer is Better) Flexibility: Provides and preserves maximum options for the division and brigade commanders. Measured as the number of branch plans and sequels available to the division commander. (More is better) LOC Security: Ability and degree to which friendly forces operate unhindered by enemy direct action along the MSR. Measured as the length in KMs of Division MSR, the number of chokepoints along the MSR, and the number of forces allocated for security. (Less is better) Command and Control: The authority exercised by a commander over the activities of his assigned units and the ability of a commander to direct their actions. Measured as number of battalions task organized outside of their habitual Brigades, the number of BCTs with more than five task organized Battalions, and the number of follow – on RIPs required. (Fewer is better) EXAMPLE Evaluation Criteria
COA Development COAs must pass the FADS Test!...What is the FADS Test?
COA Development Essential Task and Purpose Regardless of COA, the unit must accomplish the higher commander’s intent by understanding its essential task(s) and purpose and its unique contribution to the higher commander’s mission success. Tasks for this COA Tasks for this COA Tasks for this COA COA 1 COA 2 COA 3 Essential task and purpose is common to all COAs (Suitability requirement)
COA Analysis Mission to subordinate units CCIR Refined COAs Targeting products: HPTL, AGM, TSS Output Input Approved COA Statements and sketches Updated CCIRs Updated IPB products Step 4 COA Analysis (War Game) Who is responsible for what product? Task Organization Wargame results DST and WFF synch matrix WARNO 3? Updated Collection plan Refined Event Temp
COA Comparison Commander’s decision brief Step 5 COA COMPARISON War game results Establish criteria Output Input Decision matrix War game brief (optional)
“There is a type of staff officer who seems to think that it is more important to draft immaculate orders than to get out a reasonably well-worded order in time for action to be taken before the situation changes or the opportunity passes.”
- BH Liddell Harts, Thoughts on War, 1933
What’s your opinion?
PLANNING CONTINUUM AVAILABLE PLANNING TIME DRIVES MORE TIME LESS TIME Time Constrained MDMP LESS DETAILS IN CDR’S GUIDANCE MORE MORE FLEXIBILITY/LATITUDE LESS OF STAFF MORE NUMBER OF COAs FEWER DEVELOPED MORE LEVEL OF DETAIL/COORDINATION LESS IN OPORD LESS LEVEL OF INVOLVEMENT MORE OF COMMANDER
Receive mission from higher HQ or derive from an ongoing mission
Staff immediately prepares for mission analysis (SOP preparation)
Commander and staff do a quick initial assessment with emphasis on an initial allocation of available time (SOP, 1/3 :2/3 guide?)
Conduct individual staff element estimates: IPB, LOG Est., etc.
Collaborate with higher HQ, adjacent and subordinate units
Look for intelligence gaps (higher ISM)
Focus on time management (staff and subordinate unit timelines)
Commander issues initial guidance; G-3/S-3 issues WARNORD to subordinate units
Mission Analysis (MA) is crucial to the MDMP. It allows the commander to begin his battlefield visualization. The result of MA is defining the tactical problem and beginning the process of determining feasible solutions. Mission Analysis
Mission – Must consider other sources (Dayton Accords, Military-Technical Agreements, SOFAs, ROE, Executive orders etc)
Enemy – Require a modified understanding of “who” or “what” is the adversary. Cdr’s must take care to not create an enemy where one does not exist.
Terrain and Weather – OAKOC remains valid, but how analyzed may differ. Decisive terrain may be the attitude of the people or civil infrastructure. The impact of weather on civilians and the potential for a worsening humanitarian crisis may create concerns.
Troops – Troops to task analysis, mix of combat, combat support and combat service support forces to perform missions, use of host-nation civilians, GOs and NGOs
Time – Must consider the possibility of long term commitment. Results of actions may not be immediate.
Civil considerations – Improve QOL for local population by creating a secure environment for social, economic, and political development.
WHEN: Time the mission must start, be completed, or continue (duration)
WHY: The “purpose” behind the unit’s task(s) and how it relates to supported or supporting units, the main effort, the enemy and the higher commander’s intent.
The main effort’s purpose relates to the higher commander’s purpose
A shaping operation’s purpose relates to the decisive operation or another shaping operation and explains it’s contribution to help the decisive operation succeed.
Anatomy of a Restated Mission “ The restated mission is a simple, concise statement of the essential tasks the unit must accomplish and the purpose to be achieved .” FM 5-0, para 4-26.
Nesting the COA Intents XXXX Task & purpose Missions XXX Shaping XXX Decisive XX Decisive XX Shaping
Shaping Determine Shaping Tasks that must be accomplished if Decisive Operation is to succeed Shaping Objective Where the enemy is most vulnerable? Where the unit can generate overwhelming combat power? Shaping Decisive COA Development
Priority intelligence requirements (PIR ) -- information about the enemy.
Essential elements of friendly information (EEFI ) -- information needed to protect friendly forces from the enemy’s information -gathering systems. (No longer a CCIR, but become a commander’s priority when he states them.”
Friendly forces information requirements (FFIR ) -- information about the capabilities of his or adjacent units.
CCIR are expressed as : FM 5-0 “ What does the commander need to know in a specific situation to make a particular decision in a timely manner?” FM 3-0 Initial CCIR
When, where, and how he intends to mass effects to accomplish the mission according to his higher commander’s intent
Priorities for all combat, CS, and CSS elements
How he envisions their support of his concept
1. Specific courses of action to consider or not to consider, both friendly and enemy, and the priority for addressing them 2. CCIR 3. Reconnaissance guidance 4. Risk guidance 5. Deception guidance 6. Fire support guidance Commander’s Guidance Key Points (1 of 2)
7. Mobility and countermobility guidance 8. Security measures to be implemented 9. Additional specific priorities for CS and CSS 10. Any other information the commander wants the staff to consider 11. Time allocation plan 12. Type of order to issue 13. Type of rehearsal to conduct Commander’s Guidance Key Points (2 of 2)