Causal Arrows  from  Causal Assumptions Federica Russo [email_address] Université Catholique de Louvain Centre for Philoso...
Overview <ul><li>Motivation for the  </li></ul><ul><li>epistemological perspective </li></ul><ul><li>Empirical Arguments: ...
The epistemological perspective <ul><li>“ Storks and Birth Rates” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Sea level in Venice and Bread prices...
Empirical Arguments Mother’s education has causal impact  on child survival
Possible causal links between health and wealth: No  link  health    wealth Accepted No  link  wealth    health Rejected
Epistemological Morals <ul><li>Causal claims are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>set in particular contexts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul>...
Methodological Arguments Associational Models: <ul><li>make descriptive claims about </li></ul><ul><li>conditional distrib...
<ul><li>Causal Models: </li></ul><ul><li>aim at evaluating </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>statistical relevance relatio...
Epistemological Morals <ul><li>Causality is a matter  </li></ul><ul><li>of confirmation </li></ul><ul><li>No causes at the...
Threat <ul><li>Causal arrows in Causal assumptions: </li></ul><ul><li>Is that circular? </li></ul><ul><li>Epistemic causal...
To sum up … <ul><ul><li>We analysed some case studies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Where do social scientists put causal...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Konstanz04 Presentation

434

Published on

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
434
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Konstanz04 Presentation

  1. 1. Causal Arrows from Causal Assumptions Federica Russo [email_address] Université Catholique de Louvain Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science - LSE
  2. 2. Overview <ul><li>Motivation for the </li></ul><ul><li>epistemological perspective </li></ul><ul><li>Empirical Arguments: </li></ul><ul><li>illustration of case studies </li></ul><ul><li>Methodological Arguments: </li></ul><ul><li>analysis of structural models </li></ul><ul><li>Epistemological Morals: </li></ul><ul><li>causal arrows from causal assumptions </li></ul>
  3. 3. The epistemological perspective <ul><li>“ Storks and Birth Rates” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Sea level in Venice and Bread prices in England” </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>the metaphysician has problems </li></ul><ul><li>I don’t have! </li></ul>
  4. 4. Empirical Arguments Mother’s education has causal impact on child survival
  5. 5. Possible causal links between health and wealth: No link health  wealth Accepted No link wealth  health Rejected
  6. 6. Epistemological Morals <ul><li>Causal claims are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>set in particular contexts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>put forward for </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>empirical testing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>validated when match </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>with empirical data </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Methodological Arguments Associational Models: <ul><li>make descriptive claims about </li></ul><ul><li>conditional distributions </li></ul><ul><li>have a set of </li></ul><ul><li>statistical assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>But </li></ul><ul><li>have no causal interpretation </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>Causal Models: </li></ul><ul><li>aim at evaluating </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>statistical relevance relations </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>have a set of (i) statistical assumptions </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(ii) causal assumptions </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Then </li></ul><ul><li>the structural model gives </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>the causal structure </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Epistemological Morals <ul><li>Causality is a matter </li></ul><ul><li>of confirmation </li></ul><ul><li>No causes at the input – </li></ul><ul><li>no causes at the output </li></ul><ul><li>Epistemic causality </li></ul><ul><li>is internal to the model </li></ul>
  10. 10. Threat <ul><li>Causal arrows in Causal assumptions: </li></ul><ul><li>Is that circular? </li></ul><ul><li>Epistemic causality is virtuous, </li></ul><ul><li>not vicious … </li></ul>
  11. 11. To sum up … <ul><ul><li>We analysed some case studies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Where do social scientists put causality? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We analysed structural models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What assumptions are proper to causal models? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>We conclude: </li></ul><ul><li>Causal Arrows from Causal Assumptions </li></ul>*Many thanks to Jon Williamson and Guillaume Wunsch for stimulating discussions*
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×