A Peek into the Future


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Jean-Paul Edwards talk from the conference at Power to the Pixel's Cross-Media Forum in London, 12 October 2010

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  • Good morning. A real honour to be here, this is outside of my normal comfort zone but a very interesting challenge to see if I can tell you guys anything interesting about the new media landscape.
  • 1/1 min:First question to answer is what the hell is a media planner?Media planning and buying agency, we look after some of the big global mega brands such as Sony, Virgin, Nissan Renault Intel. Our history has been in placing commercial messages, unlike a creative agency we don’t make the messages However this has changed in recent years and we have become far more involved in the production of content.
  • 2 mins 3: The advertising sector and the content sector have traditionally had an arms length relationship. Creating content historically was hard and expensive, few people could afford to create it and often it needed the support of an advertiser on the whole so advertising was an efficient funding mechanism. Advertising allowed TV , print ,radio and to a lesser extent cinema, commercially viable allowing it to scale through the 20th century. As new media formats such as national newspapers, Radio stations and TV stations were created advertising was, and still is a very convenient mechanic for funding. These new mass media channels provided a wonderful new concept to companies that advertises , a significant proportion of a nations consumers. Over the last 20 years it has become a lot easier to make and create content , the good and the bad. The issue for advertisers is that content is no longer the scarce comodity , attention is. This can be due to fragmented audiences spread across 500 tv stations or 500m web sites, ad avoidance with Tivo or Sky + or the fact that there are literaly millions of brands trying to speak to us.The industry I work has been fed by consumer insight understand what people do and may want in the future. We haven’t traditionally worried about things like narrative mainly because we have only had a few seconds of attention to play with. However as convergence has played out we have been thinking more about narrative and structure of message as we have had to increasingly earn attention and not just buy it. The fact is we don’t operate in separate industries or value chains but in a single attention value network. So Today I’d like to offer you some of the ideas and insight that lead our thinking about what consumers want and where the technology is going and what that might mean for you the people who are and will be creating the content of the future. Its my best guess at what you might find interesting from the ooidles of consumer research the we have access to.
  • 1mins (11 mins)Over half of the worlds population now has a mobile phone, a little over 10 years ago half of the worlds population had never made a phone call. There are about 5bn devices in use today almost 2bn internet enabled and around half of all phones sold in the EU , 20% globally are smart phones. This scale has affected our daily lives to a huge extent, over half of adults surveyed suffer from nomophobia, the fear of not having access to their mobile for an extended period of time. Young people spend about 80x on mobile what they spend on music. 11% of US teens send over 200 texts per day. The next few years will see interesting developments in the mass audiences relationship with mobile as we move beyond the early adopters many millions more will have a smart phone experience but will they pay for the apps and what kind of content will they desire? I don’t think there will be one standard format, The impact of mobile devices is universal but the stories play out in many different ways. In the UK and particularly in Japan talking loudly on a mobile device is considered rude, whereas in New York I’m told and particularly in Israel talking quietly is treated with great suspicion. I think we will see very soon a mobile game with a 1m prize.The next 10 years are about connecting not another 5bn but another 500bn or potentially 1trn as all sorts of devices are connected. Your home security system, all sorts of sensor in your car let alone the millions of CCTV cameras and the like.
  • 2/13Our relationship with media is becoming increasingly intimate, not only do we spend the whole day with our technology but it come with us to the bathroom and the bedroom. One-third of women aged 18-34 check Facebook when they first wake up, even before they get to the bathroom.- LightSpeedResearcg, July 2010Not only are we producing and consuming media and content in more places but our physical relationship with it is changing , the inputs are now tactile the iphone , ipad, wii and now Playstation move and Xbox kinnect all have an intuitive physical motion interface that changes the experience fundamentally.What we will see over the next few years is an increasing number of sensors placed in our devices. Google talk of having every human sense augmented by their phone and many other non human sensors packed in to the device or as a plugin device. A huge area will be digital health. The healthcare sector is forecast to account 20% of GDP in advanced economies over the next 15years, connected devices will be a big part of that story. This is a very big deal it creates huge cost savings for healthcare providers, they don’t need to rely on expensive proprietary equipment but instead attach a cheap sensor to an iphone and off you go. How wil our experience change when this is a device that start to incfluence and possibly control our behaviour.
  • 1 min:/14The numbers behind Facebook are scary there are now 525m users of facebook world wide just shy of 30m in the UK of which half use facebook each day, A Facebook reach media buy will reach more people than any single TV spot, it will soon be more than any single TV channel they already make big money from advertising, I used to think they were way over valued at $15bn, I now think that 30bn way undervalues them. We now have a pretty much universal social platform which we can now build things upon. We can expect to see innovative TV shows playing out through facebook that can generate income in all sorts of ways. Already Zynga make a fortune through games such as Farmville about $1m /day, mostly middle aged women playing in their coffee break. Advertisers are fascinated by this phenomenon. Will we see a growing army of Facebook filmakers who’s primary source of income is Facebook credits.
  • 1/15:About 5 years ago Nokia made a bold prediction they said that by 2010, 20% of young peoples media time would be spent with media created by their friends . They were wrong it isnt 20% of media time but 20% of all the time they are awake and not just the young. We believe that this trend will continue as a virtuous (or vicious circle is created) more people getting online doing more things telling their friends what they are doing or creating , generating demand for more technology. In many cases the professionals will be the editors and curators who sift through the masses of content being created. We are seeing significant growth in advanced communities shaaring tips of where to find the best content. Stumble upon is an interesting community that despite being only about 10m strong worldwide can provide the lions share of traffic to a site for a few days. What happening now is the process is being automated, the ipad app flipboard creates an on the fly magazine experience based on twitter feeds and facebook links. Or this service fflick which extracts movie recommendations from tweets, unsurprisnlgy the Social network is a big deal in my social network. We will see , as semantic technologies mature, ever more sophisticvated techniques and structures of peer recommentation. I think for many of us over the next 5 years they will become our TV guides.
  • 1/16Play is an intrinsic part of human nature, all children play intuitively, games have been around since the dawn of civilisation. Games over time mutated in to entities such sports parlour games and board games and then video games.I think this quote from Jane McGonigalsumms up really well why we like games. What we have seen over the past decade has been a huge rise in video game play, it has been the fastest growing entertainment sector. The past couple of years have seen a rapid transformation with the rise of mobile and social gaming, reaching new older and female audiences.Games have become a big part of the marketing of entertainment properties. Over the past decade we have seen them move from a small test part of a marketing programme to in some cases become bigger than the properties they are meant to be advertising. Sharkrunners from a very interesting company called Area/code is such an example about 10 times as many people playing the online game of the show than ever watched shark week on Discovery. Also games provide new revenue streams for content properties, we were involved in a great campaign for a the TV show super natural, that was essentially a game, with a nice trans media prize, of an appearance in the next series of the show. I cant go in to details but it smashed viewing targets and also increased the price of the sponsorship as it came with a vibrant online comminity ,who were peer curating like mad.
  • 1/17 A new word for you: IchigeIs location based gaming in Japan:Location based gaming, takes these principles and applies them to the real world imbibing the with new meaning as they refer to real places and experiences, they are anchored in the real world. Sometimes it is more around utility than entertainment, air tags in Japan created by travelling salesmen. The game of the ancient prefectures.Epic mix in the USA, Ski based game. It will be interesting to see how as we move from a foursquare world of enough early adopters taking part to make something interesting to a Facebook places type world where it is normal behaviour, what will this behaviour become a platform for? Will we see a story based on my skiing day?What we have seen is that fopr any challenge there is a comunity of people out there who will do it, the trick is finding them.
  • 1/18 So the three primary drivers , the things that are changing the most and becoming most significant are the three platform of social, mobile and play in all of guises and three emerging concepts and behaviours that sit roughly at the intersection between them. There are many other trends and technolgies that I havent mentioned, but thats another day.
  • 2/20One ofthe big tensions in the emerging model of attention economics is the notion of privacy. What does identity mean in the modern world, what can expect to be done with our data and what laws can we rely upon.. I dot have an answer, but the debate needs to happen. A world of complete closure would shut down the internet , nothing could be shared. Likewise a world of complete openness would be chaotic, Eric Schmidt has already said that young people on reaching the age of 21 should be given the option of creating a new identity to obscure their youthful misdemeanours. My personal belief that our industries will be defined over the next 10 years by one or more legal cases decided by a 70 year old judge referring to legal precedent from 100 years ago. I think a sensible approach will include two type of identity a digital identity that can freely roam and a personal identity that is tightly controlled.What we may see for example is new advertising based funding models that mean that advertisers bid for individuals based o advanced algorithms based on previous behaviour, we already do this its called search engine marketing and its worth $20bn a year and has made Google the largest media company in the world based on market cap, we should see a top 5 film /TV show distributed exclusivelyon YouTube and consumers would see 1-3 ads per hour. All three parties consumer, advertiser and content creator would see a greater return on their relevant investment. The alternative is possibly one plastered in untargeted advertising .
  • 1/23The fact is everything is becoming media. I hope I don’t mean a future as envisioned by Idiocracy but many more aspects of our lives will be impacted by digital technologies and as such become media in some way. Our health, our spirituality, our identity, our relationships ,even our genome are all becoming digitised and this becoming media. The potential of transmedia storytelling is then vastly expanded to include shopping education,health and risk as well as the entertainment channels we have been used to dealing with. A prospect i find exciting and frightening depending on the time of day.
  • 2/25 Everything is converging; technologies, ideas, content, revenue streams as Moore’s law marches onNetwork effects outweigh scale efficiencies: Its less about being big in one area but connecting as many diverse properties together and creating new value. Already the movie business the cinema release only accounts for around 15% of the take ( James Zurowieki)Comsumers are looking for dare I say semantic experiences
  • A Peek into the Future

    1. 1. Jean-Paul Edwards Exec Director, Futures A peek in to the future: A Media Planner’s perspective on the convergent media landscape
    2. 2. A shifting relationship between content and advertising Content Economics Attention Economics time
    3. 3. The exponential platform
    4. 4. By 2015: A super computer >calculations 1 human brain An ‘iPod’ that can store every song ever recorded: 1gB bandwidth launched, 100mB common place >90% internet access reaching 99.5% of wealth New generation of games consoles
    5. 5. After then things get strange nanotech Robotics and genetics supercomputing
    6. 6. Don’t expect communications to stop changing until these exponential forces slow significantly ( which wont be for at least 10 years)
    7. 7. Today’s dynamics What are people doing now and what do we think they will be doing in the future
    8. 8. Mobile culture is global 53% nomophobia 50 SMS /day
    9. 9. Media is increasingly intimate
    10. 10. Facebook has won and is now a universal platform
    11. 11. Peer-curation
    12. 12. We love to play ‘What makes games fun is their design as formal systems that strip away much of the noise of everyday reality. A good game makes it challenging, but ultimately possible, to discern the essential signal of its interactive pattern.’ Jane McGonigal
    13. 13. Ichige!
    14. 14. Ichige Peer curation Media Intimacy Play Mobile Culture The Social Platform
    15. 15. Where next? What is going to shape the future?
    16. 16. Privacy issues will define all of our futures
    17. 17. The (highly disruptive) semantic age Connected Meaningful
    18. 18. (Trans)Media will transcend new boundaries
    19. 19. So.... • Everything is converging; technologies, ideas, content, revenue streams as Moore’s law marches on • Network effects outweigh scale efficiencies in an attention economy • Privacy issues and potential legislation define multiple scenarios • Consumer’s are looking for experiences that connect ideas and people that mean something to them
    20. 20. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT: Twitter: jeanpauledwards E: jp@omd.com