Tip mellman iran survey jan 24 2014 slides (2)

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  • 1. The Israel Project Findings From A National Survey Of 800 Likely Voters 1
  • 2. Key Findings  Though Voters Like The President And Secretary Kerry, They Offer Negative Evaluations Of The Administration's Handling Of Iran  Voters Overwhelmingly Favor Sanctions To Stop Iran's Nuclear Program  Preventing Iran From Getting Nuclear Weapons Is A Higher Priority Than Avoiding Military Action  Voters Are Mostly Unfamiliar With The Interim Agreement And Express Mixed Views  Voters Overwhelmingly Support New Sanctions Legislation, Even After Hearing Arguments From Both Sides 2
  • 3. Methodology National Poll: 800 Likely Voters Interviews conducted January 21-23, 2014 Margin Of Error +/- 3.5 (Higher For Subgroups) 3
  • 4. Though Voters Like The President And Secretary Kerry, They Offer Negative Evaluations Of The Administration's Handling Of Iran 4
  • 5. A Narrow Plurality Views Obama Favorably Barack Obama Favorability Mean Ratio Hard ID 2.49 100% 1.09 98% 80% 60% +4 51% 47% 40% 20% 0% 30% Very Favorable 34% Very Unfavorable Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Fav 88% 42% 20% 57% 45% 59% 46% 53% 46% 56% 43% 93% 48% 57% 43% 54% 57% 46% 48% 58% 41% 59% 59% Unfav 10% 56% 78% 41% 53% 39% 53% 46% 52% 43% 55% 4% 50% 41% 54% 46% 41% 52% 50% 42% 57% 41% 40% 5
  • 6. A Plurality Views John Kerry Favorably John Kerry Favorability Mean Ratio Hard ID 2.56 100% 1.30 84% 80% 60% +11 48% 37% 40% 20% 0% 21% Very 21% Very Favorable Unfavorable Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Fav 70% 39% 32% 53% 42% 54% 41% 52% 37% 57% 44% 65% 49% 58% 38% 45% 56% 49% 44% 46% 41% 60% 50% Unfav 14% 43% 56% 29% 46% 23% 45% 38% 39% 36% 42% 8% 42% 34% 40% 34% 34% 36% 41% 34% 43% 28% 35% 6
  • 7. Voters Give The Administration Negative Ratings For Dealing With Iran What kind of job has President Obama and his administration done when it comes to dealing with Iran? Have President Obama Democrat ID Independent ID and his administration done an excellent, good, only fair or poor Republican ID job when it comes to dealing with Iran? 100% -36 80% 60% 66% 6% Excellent 30% 40% 20% 37% Poor 0% Favor Oppose Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Positive 56% 21% 10% 32% 28% 30% 28% 33% 25% 34% 26% 54% 29% 36% 26% 28% 31% 28% 29% 33% 22% 37% 35% Negative 39% 75% 86% 63% 69% 63% 70% 63% 71% 62% 71% 40% 67% 60% 70% 68% 66% 69% 68% 60% 73% 58% 63% 7
  • 8. Americans Do Not Trust Iran, Seeing It As A Prime Adversary 8
  • 9. Overwhelming Numbers View Iran Unfavorably Iran Favorability Mean Ratio Hard ID 1.63 100% 0.16 85% 73% 80% -61 60% 40% 4% Very 20% 12% 47% Very 0% Favorable Unfavorable Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Fav 17% 10% 7% 11% 12% 17% 8% 12% 9% 14% 9% 20% 10% 14% 7% 15% 10% 12% 11% 13% 9% 14% 14% Unfav 67% 72% 80% 70% 76% 59% 80% 75% 72% 74% 77% 59% 77% 76% 70% 70% 75% 73% 73% 70% 76% 68% 73% 9
  • 10. Few Know Who Rouhani Is, Though Those Who Do, View Him Unfavorably Hassan Rouhani Favorability Mean Ratio Hard ID 1.81 100% 0.29 22% 80% -12 60% 40% 17% 20% 5% 0% Favorable Unfavorable Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Fav 6% 6% 3% 4% 6% 5% 5% 5% 3% 7% 5% 5% 4% 7% 2% 7% 6% 3% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% Unfav 12% 17% 21% 12% 22% 13% 16% 22% 14% 19% 18% 11% 25% 20% 16% 8% 14% 17% 18% 17% 16% 17% 16% 10
  • 11. By Contrast, Voters Have Strongly Favorable Opinions Of Israel, And To A Lesser Extent Of Netanyahu Israel Favorability 80% Mean Ratio Hard ID 3.14 100% 4.25 Benjamin Netanyahu Favorability 85% 68% Mean Ratio Hard ID 2.84 100% 2.13 50% 80% +52 +18 60% 60% 34% 40% 40% 16% 20% 0% 16% 20% 34% Very Favorable 0% Unfavorable 15% Very Favorable Unfavorable 11
  • 12. Voters Do Not Trust North Korea Or Iran To Abide By Agreements Don’t Trust Great Britain 5% Israel Net Trust Trust 94% 68% strong trust 79% 37% 18% +89 +61 Mexico 29% 15% 69% +40 South Korea 29% 25% 67% +38 Russia 54% China Iran North Korea *Ranked By Net Trust 56% 83% 90% 28% 44% -10 28% 42% -14 60% 77% strong distrust -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 15% 7% 20% 40% % Trust To Live Up To & Abide By Diplomatic Agreements 60% -68 -83 80% 100% 12
  • 13. No Voter Segment Trusts Iran % Trust Iran To Live Up To & Abide By Diplomatic Agreements 100% 83% 80% -68 60% 40% 2% Great Deal 15% 20% 60% Not At All 0% Trust Distrust Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Trust 19% 17% 7% 16% 14% 26% 12% 9% 12% 17% 13% 23% 12% 10% 13% 16% 15% 9% 15% 20% 12% 20% 15% Distrust 78% 81% 91% 82% 83% 73% 85% 88% 85% 81% 85% 73% 87% 88% 84% 83% 84% 89% 82% 77% 87% 77% 83% 13
  • 14. While North Korea Is Viewed As The Biggest Threat To The U.S., Iran Comes In A Close Second Republicans Tend To View Iran As A Bigger Threat Than Democrats Which of the following countries do you think poses the biggest threat to the security of the United States? 60% 50% N. Korea 33% 25% 26% Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Iran 17% 25% 28% 40% 28% 30% 23% 18% 20% 6% 10% 6% 6% 5% 0% North Korea Iran China Iraq Pakistan Syria Russia 14
  • 15. Voters Overwhelmingly Favor Sanctions To Stop Iran's Nuclear Program 15
  • 16. Across Party Lines, Voters Overwhelmingly Favor Economic Sanctions On Iran To Pressure It To End Its Nuclear Weapons Program As you may know, the United States and most other countries in the world have imposed economic sanctions on Iran to pressure it to end its efforts to develop nuclear weapons Do you favor or oppose the economic sanctions that the U.S. has placed on Iran? 100% 83% +72 80% 60% 40% 6% Strongly 11% 20% 68% Strongly 0% Favor Oppose Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Favor 83% 79% 89% 82% 85% 75% 84% 89% 81% 86% 85% 80% 87% 86% 80% 82% 88% 84% 83% 80% 86% 91% 80% Oppose 11% 14% 7% 12% 10% 16% 10% 8% 12% 9% 9% 15% 9% 9% 13% 12% 8% 9% 13% 13% 11% 6% 13% 16
  • 17. More Than Three Quarters Believe Sanctions Should Be Strengthened Or Remain At Their Current Level In your opinion, should the United States now strengthen economic sanctions on Iran, reduce economic sanctions on Iran, or should sanctions remain at the same level they are now? 80% 77% 70% 60% 50% 39% 38% 40% 30% 14% 20% 10% 0% strengthen same reduce strengthen Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never same reduce 28% 41% 49% 37% 41% 32% 43% 39% 41% 37% 41% 32% 44% 38% 41% 35% 36% 41% 40% 38% 46% 44% 28% 42% 40% 32% 40% 36% 43% 37% 36% 36% 40% 36% 47% 37% 40% 37% 38% 46% 35% 40% 34% 35% 35% 43% 18% 14% 9% 12% 16% 13% 12% 17% 12% 16% 13% 8% 16% 13% 13% 15% 15% 14% 12% 16% 11% 15% 19% 17
  • 18. Most Believe Iran Should Dismantle Its Nuclear Infrastructure Before Sanctions Are Lifted In trying to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, should the United States … Allow Iran to keep its nuclear infrastructure and stockpiles of enriched uranium in place and lift economic sanctions against Iran so long as Iran agrees to not build nuclear weapons, limits future uranium enrichment and submits to international inspections of its nuclear facilities. Insist that Iran dismantles its nuclear infrastructure and give up the ability to build a nuclear weapon before any economic sanctions are lifted. 62% 80% +30 70% 60% 50% 32% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 24% Strongly Allow 49% Strongly Dismantle Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Allow 37% 33% 26% 29% 36% 43% 28% 29% 33% 31% 32% 33% 36% 30% 33% 33% 36% 29% 34% 30% 28% 31% 37% Dismantle 55% 63% 69% 65% 59% 53% 65% 65% 60% 64% 63% 59% 61% 64% 61% 61% 62% 63% 60% 64% 67% 63% 58% 18
  • 19. Preventing Iran From Getting Nukes Is A Higher Priority Than Avoiding Military Action 19
  • 20. Allowing Iran To Develop Nuclear Weapons Is Judged More Dangerous Than Targeted Military Strikes In the long run, which is more dangerous for the United States: Allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Targeted military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities to try and stop them from developing nuclear weapons 100% 80% 54% 60% 37% 40% 20% 0% 47% Strongly Iran Nukes 26% Strongly Military strikes Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Iran Nukes 48% 52% 63% 54% 54% 50% 59% 52% 54% 54% 55% 56% 56% 55% 52% 54% 55% 55% 58% 47% 55% 57% 51% Military Strikes 40% 39% 31% 37% 37% 45% 32% 37% 35% 39% 35% 36% 38% 36% 38% 37% 36% 36% 34% 43% 39% 37% 38% 20
  • 21. By Over 3 To 1, Voters Believe Preventing Iran From Developing Nuclear Weapons Is More Important Than Avoiding Military Strikes Which of the following should be the most impt. goal of the U.S. in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program? To prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it requires military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. To avoid military strikes on Iran, even if it means allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. 100% 68% 80% 60% 13% Strongly 21% 40% 20% 0% 59% Strongly Prevent Nukes Avoid Strikes Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Prevent Nukes 61% 66% 80% 71% 66% 65% 70% 69% 69% 68% 68% 76% 70% 64% 71% 71% 71% 66% 72% 64% 74% 79% 62% Avoid Strikes 27% 23% 13% 19% 23% 27% 21% 18% 19% 23% 21% 15% 20% 26% 18% 19% 21% 22% 19% 23% 17% 14% 28% 21
  • 22. Voters Are Most Concerned About Iran Arming Terrorists With Nukes, Attacking U.S. Troops And Launching A Missile Against The U.S. Now I am going to read you a list of things that could happen if Iran is able to develop a nuclear weapon. After I read each, please tell me if that concerns you a great deal, some, not too much or not at all? Iran could give nuclear weapons to terrorist groups trying to attack the United States and our allies Iran could use nuclear weapons to attack American troops in the Middle-East 78% % concerns a great deal 75% Iran is developing nuclear-armed ballistic missiles that could enable them to launch a nuclear attack on the U.S. by 2015 73% Allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons could embolden other countries to develop nuclear weapons, triggering an arms race in one of the most dangerous parts of the world 71% A nuclear-armed Iran could launch nuclear weapons against Israel, our closest ally in the region 70% Iran could become a regional superpower that is even harder to deter than it is now 66% 64% Iran would have the capability to menace oil suppliers, causing the price of oil & gasoline to increase, threatening the global economy 58% America’s influence around the world would be undermined 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 22
  • 23. Voters Are Mostly Unfamiliar With The Interim Agreement And Express Mixed Views 23
  • 24. Only About Half Have Heard Anything About The Interim Agreement, And Few Know Much How much, if anything, have you heard about an interim agreement between the United States and Iran that places some temporary restraints on the pace of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for some relief from economic sanctions on Iran? 70% 60% 52% Not Heard 47% Heard 50% 32% 40% 29% 23% 30% 20% 15% 10% 0% Great Deal Some Not Too Much Nothing At All Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Heard 42% 50% 48% 38% 56% 39% 44% 56% 40% 53% 49% 30% 61% 51% 43% 36% 49% 46% 51% 38% 46% 51% 46% Not Heard 56% 49% 51% 61% 43% 59% 55% 42% 59% 46% 51% 68% 38% 47% 56% 62% 50% 51% 49% 60% 52% 48% 53% 24
  • 25. A Majority Favors The Interim Agreement With Iran Voters Cleave Sharply Across Party, Age And Religiousity As you may know, the United States & 5 other world powers recently reached an interim agreement with Iran that would reduce some economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for a commitment by Iran to temporarily limit some parts of its nuclear program, while a final agreement is being negotiated. Do you favor or oppose this agreement? 100% 80% 55% 60% 37% 40% 20% 34% Strongly 27% Strongly Favor Oppose 0% Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Favor 70% 47% 46% 58% 52% 70% 49% 51% 54% 56% 52% 63% 56% 55% 57% 53% 56% 48% 52% 65% 49% 61% 63% Oppose 23% 42% 47% 33% 41% 21% 42% 42% 37% 37% 40% 29% 40% 38% 34% 36% 41% 39% 39% 27% 44% 32% 30% 25
  • 26. Opposition To The Interim Agreement Is Somewhat Higher Among Those Who Have Heard More About It Favor/Oppose Interim Agreement By Awareness Of Agreement TOTAL Heard Great Deal Heard Some 100% Heard Not Too Much Heard Nothing At All 80% 60% 56% 55% 37% 40% 20% 59% 54% 42% 52% 43% 32% 32% Favor Oppose 0% 26
  • 27. Though Voters Support The Agreement, They Would Have Preferred Requiring Iran To Abandon Its Nuclear Program Before Reducing Any Sanctions Which of the following statements about the interim agreement with Iran comes closer to your point of view: The United States made the right decision by reducing sanctions and financial pressure in exchange for an agreement by Iran to put some temporary limits on its nuclear program, while a final agreement is being negotiated. The United States should have required Iran to completely abandon its nuclear program before agreeing to reduce sanctions. 100% 80% 57% 39% 60% 40% 20% 0% 29% Strongly 45% Strongly U.S. Made Right Decision Require Iran To Abandon Nuclear Weapons 27
  • 28. More Than Two-Thirds Favor Releasing The Entire Text To The Public As of right now, the Obama Administration has shared the agreement with Iran only with some Members of Congress. Do you Democrat ID favor or oppose releasing the text of the entire deal to the public? Independent ID 100% 68% 80% 60% 26% 40% 20% 0% 57% strong 16% strong Favor Oppose Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Favor 61% 69% 74% 65% 71% 73% 69% 63% 72% 65% 71% 48% 69% 65% 74% 68% 70% 63% 64% 75% 65% 72% 71% Oppose 30% 25% 22% 29% 23% 24% 24% 29% 22% 29% 24% 45% 27% 27% 20% 26% 25% 28% 29% 19% 29% 23% 23% 28
  • 29. Voters Don’t Believe Iran Will Live Up To The Interim Agreement How likely do you think it is that Iran will live up to and abide by this interim agreement? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely that Iran will live up to and abide by this agreement? 100% 66% 80% 60% 6% very 31% 40% 20% 45% very 0% Likely Unlikely Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Likely 44% 28% 18% 30% 32% 40% 24% 31% 28% 32% 28% 35% 34% 32% 29% 28% 32% 29% 27% 36% 26% 33% 35% Unlikely 52% 68% 80% 67% 65% 56% 73% 65% 68% 65% 68% 61% 64% 64% 68% 69% 66% 65% 70% 61% 71% 63% 63% 29
  • 30. Voters Strongly Favor Requiring Iran To Take A Number Of Actions During Negotiations Now I am going to read you a list of actions that some people have suggested Iran should be required to take while it is negotiating with the U.S. on its nuclear program. After I read each, please tell me whether you would favor or oppose requiring Iran to take that action before the U.S. signs a final agreement with Iran on lifting sanctions Oppose 3% Iran should be required to cease all acts of terrorism against the U.S. 3% 87% strong favor 95% +92 94% +91 6% 83% 8% Iran should be required to place all nuclear materials currently possessed by Iran under the control of international monitors Net Favor 88% Iran should be required to allow international inspections of all Iranian nuclear facilities Iran should be required to freeze all efforts to develop long-range ballistic missiles while negotiations are taking place Favor % Favor/ Oppose 76% 91% 88% +85 +80 Iran should be required to recognize the right of Israel to exist 9% 74% 86% +77 Iran should be required to cease all efforts to enrich uranium while negotiations are taking place 11% 77% 85% +74 83% +71 Iran should be required to destroy all centrifuges that can be used to enrich uranium to the point it can be used in nuclear weapons *Ranked By % Favor -60% 12% -40% -20% 73% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 30
  • 31. Voters Believe Iran Is Using Negotiations To Stall While Continuing Development Of Nukes Which of the following statements about Iran comes closer to your point of view: Iran is using these negotiations to stall as it continues to develop its ability to make nuclear weapons. Iran is negotiating in good faith and will eventually give up their ability to make nuclear weapons. 100% Iran is negotiating in good faith and may eventually give up their ability to make nuclear weapons. 100% 73% 70% 80% 80% 60% 60% 20% 40% 20% 0% 21% 40% 20% 62% Strongly Stalling 8% Strongly Good faith 0% 59% Strongly Stalling 11% Strongly Good faith *Questions split-sampled 31
  • 32. Every Segment Believes Iran Is Using The Negotiations To Stall Which of the following statements about Iran comes closer to your point of view: Iran is using these negotiations to stall as it continues to develop its ability to make nuclear weapons. Iran is negotiating in good faith and (may/will) eventually give up their ability to make nuclear weapons. 100% 72% Split Samples Combined 80% 60% 20% 40% 20% 0% 61% Strongly stalling 9% Strongly good faith Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Stalling 62% 82% 72% 74% 69% 61% 74% 77% 72% 72% 75% 66% 73% 71% 75% 69% 77% 71% 75% 63% 79% 81% 61% Good faith 27% 12% 21% 18% 23% 30% 18% 16% 19% 22% 19% 20% 20% 22% 16% 22% 17% 19% 18% 28% 15% 13% 29% 32
  • 33. Most Believe That Congress Should Approve Any Final Deal With Iran, Though Democrats Are More Evenly Divided On The Matter Which of the following statements comes closer to your point of view? For over 15 years, Congress has been the prime mover of sanctions on Iran and should approve a final deal before sanctions are lifted, because it will help ensure we get the best possible deal and do not leave Iran with the ability to make nuclear weapons in the future. President Obama should have the power to make an agreement with Iran, without going back to Congress to repeal sanctions, because meddling by Congress could endanger negotiations between the United States and Iran, nullifying the current deal and enabling Iran to re-start its weapons program. 100% 69% 80% 60% 25% 40% 20% 0% 58% Strongly Cong approval 17% Strongly Prez power Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Cong 54% 73% 82% 68% 71% 70% 69% 70% 72% 67% 73% 52% 75% 65% 75% 66% 68% 66% 73% 67% 75% 73% 62% Prez 40% 22% 12% 25% 24% 26% 26% 22% 21% 27% 21% 41% 20% 30% 20% 27% 26% 26% 22% 28% 20% 23% 32% 33
  • 34. Voters Overwhelmingly Support New Sanctions Legislation, Even After Hearing Arguments On Both Sides 34
  • 35. Less Than A Third Have Heard About New Congressional Legislation That Would Trigger Sanctions On Iran Older Voters Are Most Aware How much, if anything, have you heard about legislation in Congress that could trigger new sanctions on Iran? 70% 68% Not Heard 30% Heard 60% 50% 37% 40% 31% 22% 30% 20% 9% 10% 0% Great Deal Some Not Too Much Nothing At All Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Heard 34% 29% 29% 27% 35% 24% 26% 41% 28% 32% 31% 27% 39% 34% 29% 23% 31% 31% 31% 28% 30% 28% 32% Not Heard 64% 69% 71% 70% 64% 74% 71% 57% 70% 66% 67% 71% 58% 64% 69% 76% 69% 66% 67% 70% 69% 69% 66% 35
  • 36. Initially, An Overwhelming Majority Favors Legislation Triggering New Sanctions If Iran Cheats On The Agreement, Fails To Negotiate A Deal Or Engages In Terrorism Just so we are on the same page, there is legislation in the Senate sponsored by 59 Senators from both parties that would trigger new sanctions on Iran if they cheat on the terms of the current interim agreement, fail to negotiate a final deal to eliminate their ability to make nuclear weapons, or if they are found to be involved in a terrorist act against the United States during nuclear talks. Do you favor or oppose this legislation? 100% 78% +63 80% 60% 10% Strongly 40% 15% 20% 64% Strongly 0% Favor Oppose Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Favor 74% 76% 83% 79% 77% 80% 77% 77% 76% 79% 79% 72% 81% 79% 76% 77% 80% 77% 76% 79% 76% 83% 80% Oppose 17% 15% 12% 13% 17% 16% 14% 16% 16% 14% 13% 17% 14% 15% 15% 15% 16% 14% 14% 16% 16% 11% 15% 36
  • 37. Support For The Legislation Is Strong Regardless Of Voters’ Familiarity With The Proposal Favor/Oppose Legislation Triggering Sanctions By Awareness TOTAL Heard Great Deal Heard Some 80% 78% 78% Heard Nothing At All 77% 100% Heard Not Too Much 80% 80% 60% 40% 20% Favor Oppose 15% 19% 17% 13% 14% 0% 37
  • 38. Voters Were Given Arguments By Both Supporters And Opponents Of Congressional Legislation Supporters of the bipartisan bill say it strengthens diplomacy and increases our chances of peacefully stopping Iran. In fact, it is Congressional sanctions that finally pushed Iran into negotiations, and it is pressure that will keep them there and convince them to compromise. Given Iran’s history of lying about its nuclear program and violating agreements, Iran cannot be trusted. Their threats to walk away from talks are not new and not credible – they need a deal more than we do. Unfortunately, the “interim” agreement has too many loopholes, relieves financial pressure prematurely, and undercuts the leverage we need to end the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. Passing legislation laying out sanctions should Iran cheat, or refuse a final agreement, balances the interim deal, supports our diplomacy and will help get a good final deal. Opponents of the legislation say the interim agreement negotiated between the United States and Iran, and the current diplomatic process to reach a final agreement, is the best way to ensure that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons in the future, and those pushing for more sanctions on Iran are putting the country on a path to war. Part of the agreement states that no new sanctions are to be imposed while the permanent agreement is being negotiated. Therefore, new sanctions now will cause this deal to fall apart and Iran will continue developing nuclear weapons. Moreover, the United States risks losing support from our allies who made these sanctions successful. We can always restore and strengthen sanctions against Iran if things change, but we should give this agreement a chance to work first. 38
  • 39. After Arguments On Both Sides Of The Issue, Voters Still Favor Legislation Triggering New Sanctions By Over Two-To-One While Democrats Are A Bit Less Supportive, A Clear Majority Still Favors The Legislation AFTER VOTERS HEARD ARGUMENTS: Now that you’ve heard arguments on both sides of the issue, do you favor or oppose this legislation triggering new sanctions against Iran? 100% 80% +35 63% 60% 28% 40% 20% 0% 49% Strongly Favor 17% Strongly Oppose Democrat ID Independent ID Republican ID Women Men 18-39 40-59 60+ No College College Grad+ White Black Upper-SES College Middle Non-College Middle Lower-SES Northeast Midwest South West Relig Weekly+ Relig Few Times/Mo Relig Seldom/Never Favor 55% 65% 71% 58% 69% 60% 67% 62% 64% 63% 64% 67% 64% 62% 64% 64% 60% 64% 67% 61% 67% 71% 57% Oppose 36% 27% 20% 30% 25% 32% 24% 28% 24% 30% 27% 22% 32% 28% 24% 28% 32% 27% 24% 29% 26% 22% 34% 39
  • 40. Strategic Conclusions  Voters do not trust Iran and do not believe that they will abide by their treaty commitments  Most voters favor sanctions on Iran, and few believe they should be weakened  While a majority favors the interim agreement, most would have preferred requiring Iran to dismantle its nuclear program before getting sanctions relief  Most favor legislation triggering sanctions on Iran if they cheat or fail to come to a final resolution – a majority that holds up after voters hear arguments on both sides 40