Futures Institute Scanning Tutorial

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Transcript

  • 1. Environmental Scanning
  • 2. What is Scanning?The beating heart of foresight.A constant, ongoing process of looking acrossthe “horizon” to detect, identify and catalogweak signals, trends and driving forcesembedded in information and activities in theworld around you.Built up over time to facilitate patternrecognition and identification of importantfuture factors."A kind of radar to scan the world systematicallyand signal the new, the unexpected, the majorand the minor"
  • 3. Why does it happen?To identify important metrics, such as: Frequency of signals Strength of signals “Directionality” of trends Maturity of issue Spread/contagion
  • 4. Who does it?Foresight professionalsStrategic plannersCompetitive analystsDesigners and creativesEngineersGovernment
  • 5. How does it happen?System of capture, collectionand organizationProcess for scanningTools for scanningFramework for seeing patterns
  • 6. Where does it happen?News mediaProfessional and academic journalsBlogs and Web articlesEntertainmentEventsInterviewsWord of mouthDirect observationSocial mediaExpert networks
  • 7. Define your environment macro meso micro
  • 8. Define your horizon(s)TODAY HORIZON 1: HORIZON 2: HORIZON 3: 1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS
  • 9. What makes a “hit”?One or more elements that catch the trained eye Weak signal Strong signal Data Sentiment A piece of a larger puzzle—part of a sequence Signal to noise ratio.
  • 10. How do you classifyand organize?