A 21st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure
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  • 1. A21 stCentury Roadmap:The Future of Infrastructure Presented by: Garry Golden
  • 2. ConfrontingConstraintsFuel Production,‘Grid’ Dynamics& Limits to ‘Go’
  • 3. Peak Production ofConventional Oil
  • 4. Critical Assumption #1: Oil Field Discovery
  • 5. Critical Assumption #2: Geopolitical Stability
  • 6. Critical Assumption #3: Non-Conventional Growth
  • 7. 21st Century Challenges‘The Grid’Critical Assumptions Bigger Smarter Plugging In Is Better is Better Matters
  • 8. 21st Century ChallengesMobilityCritical AssumptionsHuman Transit OwnershipBehavior is Better Matters
  • 9. 21st Century VisionEnablingInnovation
  • 10. Incremental & Transformational Changes to Infrastructure Incremental Innovation Within an Era versus Transformational Innovation Across New Eras
  • 11. ?Performance over time Plateau of ChangeS-Curve Shape of ‘Mainstreaming’‘Major’ & ‘Minor’ Eras Disruptions Rapid Change lead to Next Era!!! ‘Accelerating’ Slow Change ‘Emerging’
  • 12. Eras of Planes /RocketsMobility Cars Rail Boats What is next? •Autonomous Vehicles Human / Animals •Sub-orbital
  • 13. Monitoring Slow Change Phase of Development 2050 ‘Driver to Captain’ Software Supported Systems 2025 20202004 2007 2010 2015
  • 14. Eras of SiliconManufacturing Plastics Copper Bronze Iron-Steel What is next? Clay •Carbon Materials Stone Wood (Nanoscale) •Biomaterials
  • 15. Functionalization: 2050 Active NanostructuresCharacterization: Functionalization:Passive Nanostructures Passive Nanostructures 2030 2025 1990 2009 2010
  • 16. 21st Century Nano-Materials for EnergyNanoparticles Nanotubes Nanosheets (Graphene) Production – Transmission – Storage - Management – Fuel Storage – Conversion
  • 17. Social MediaEras ofCommunication Broadcast Media Machine-to- One-to-One Machine ‘M2M’
  • 18. ‘Minor’ Eras of Communication Learning Systems Cloud Computing Linked ‘Smart’ Data Pre-’Web’ Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0 Broadcast Era Info Portal Social Web Services
  • 19. The ‘Era’ Evolution of Data’s Value Chain Prescriptive What should happen? Predictive What might happen? Descriptive What has happened?
  • 20. Energy Systems Future TransportationPresent & Mobility
  • 21. Eras for Energy & Fuels Market $500 M Investment ‘Extracting’ Reserves ‘Growing’ Energy (Geosciences) (Biosciences/Materials Design)
  • 22. Eras for Power Generation Bigger… Smarter… Integrated…Central Power Plants & Fuel Markets Stranded…
  • 23. Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation Distributed Power Generation Infrastructure-based Natural Gas
  • 24. Every Object is a Power Plant?Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power GenerationPortable Fuels & Micro Energy
  • 25. Fuel Cells 101 Electrochemical Device Magic Material (Hydrogen plus Oxygen = Energy) (Membrane Electrode Assembly)
  • 26. Market Signals of Smart & Distributed Transitions 2050 2030 2020 2015 2008 2009 2010
  • 27. Possible Future:Consumers start to ‘unplug’ as devices and appliancescontain their own embedded power systems? ‘Unplugging’ Power Plants ‘Retail Packets’ Beyond the Grid $1 $10 Solid Hydrogen / $100 $1000 Liquid Fuels
  • 28. A More Likely & Favorable Future for UtilitiesDistributed Power = Micro Grids
  • 29. Questions &Discussion Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com 347-463-7412
  • 30. 2010Year OneInfrastructure Implications:Electrification of World’s Auto Fleet
  • 31. What powers an ‘electric’ car?A. Batteries B. Hydrogen C. Capacitors Fuel Cells
  • 32. Infrastructure: Electricity-Hydrogen‘Plug in’ Battery EVs Integrated Fuel cell EVs •Utility Controlled •Energy Majors (‘Big Oil’) •Fixed Access points •Portable ‘Molecule’ Fuels spectrum: •Fleet Vehicles NatGas, Biofuels, H2 (Solid, Gas, Liquid) •Mass Markets
  • 33. Why are they going ‘electric’? A. Changing B. Changing Climate Business Models
  • 34. Vehicle Electrification Carbon Footprint Manufacturing Footprint
  • 35. 2000s ‘Plateau’ 1950-90s Era of ‘Accelerating’ Combustion Engine 1920s‘Emerging’
  • 36. Global Auto Industry Imperative:Transform Manufacturing
  • 37. EV Manufacturing / After MarketBusiness Case for Electric AgeAutomakers Driver Experience•Lower Manufacturing cost •Telematics / Driver Support (Wheel based motors) (Software-Services) (Drive by Wire) •Lower Operating Cost
  • 38. Radicals: Open Source Hardware & Low Volume Builds ‘Mass Assembly’ to ‘Mass Customization’
  • 39. 21st Century ‘Fleets’ for Transit & On-Demand SolutionsBusiness Model Innovations• Intermodal Solutions ‘Last Mile’ Connections• Urban On-Demand Point to Point Service New Fleet Vision for Transit• Smaller Highway Footprint Transforming Capacity
  • 40. Questions &Discussion Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com 347-463-7412
  • 41. Infrastructure vs Infrastructure ExperienceEngineering User ExperienceTransportation (Transit) Software forInformation Services Human PerformanceMore Social & Transparent ‘Growing with Flow’
  • 42. Infrastructure ExperienceWeb-oriented Infrastructure Experience Anonymous Web …. to a more Social Web 1998 2008
  • 43. While on the road, only my friends know that I’m a dog! Civic Culture adapting toNetworked Infrastructure on the go…
  • 44. Infrastructure ExperienceWhat We Don’t Know About Infrastructure Use Simulated vs ‘Natural Data’
  • 45. How do we enable new behavior based on data-driven transportation experiences and business models? DIKW SpectrumData – Information – Knowledge – Wisdom
  • 46. Changing Infrastructure Behavior via “Gaming Mechanics”•Rules & Rewards•Challenges & Goals•Badges & Recognition (Stages of Mastery)•Reputation Management•Teamwork & StrategyGoal: Advance from Novice to Master Level Skills
  • 47. Teaching Infrastructure Systems via Gaming Mechanics User Base •80 million Monthly •30 million Daily Demographic •Female (35-50 years old)
  • 48. Changing Behavior & Infrastructure Optimization via Gaming Mechanics Leaderboards, Points, and Status
  • 49. Plausible Future:Every infrastructure component & user has a ranking & reputation based on performance?A Transparent & Accountable ‘Pay as you…’ World?
  • 50. Questions &Discussion Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com 347-463-7412
  • 51. Data & Business Models for enabling: ‘Driver’ to ‘Captain’ Prescriptive PredictiveDescriptive
  • 52. Value Capture vs. Value CreationEras for Infrastructure & Engineering Industry Engineering Designing Systems ‘Build’ with Steel & Concrete ‘Dynamic Management’ Software/Sensors & Services
  • 53. The Big Picture Transition 20th Century Dynamics 21st Century Dynamics of Central Grid of ‘Smart’ & Distributed Power Production Networked Energy Systems
  • 54. Carbon-based Infrastructure“Bridge in Backpack”
  • 55. Building Things! Nanoscale Era of Infrastructure Nanostructured Materials: • Spectrum of Applications (e.g. Maintenance/Preservation) • Lifecycle Impact/Testing • Industry Partnerships (e.g. Reducing Vehicle Weight/Impact) • Roadmap Development Exploring Transformative Performance Properties • Mechanical • Chemical • Thermal • Electrical • Sensing • Dispersion
  • 56. Nanotechnology ResourcesPrimary Nanotube Production Automotive Nano-IntegratorsOther Players:Arkema, Catalyx Nanotech, Clariant, Hanwha Nanotech Corporation, Honeywell(Aegis), Hyperion Catalysis International, Nanocyl, Nanoledge, Raymor Industries,Inc., Rosseter Holdings, Shenzhen Nanotech Port, Showa Denko, SouthWestNanoTechnologies, Inc., Sun Nanotech.
  • 57. Powering Go! Era of Electrification• Assessing Full Impact• Future-proofing Infrastructure (e.g. Plug-in & Molecule Fuels)• Industry / Sector-based Partnerships (e.g. Fleets; Freight )• Assessing Discontinuities (e.g. Urban Pod Form Factor)• Leveraging Digitally-enabled Users (Grow with Flow; ‘Captains’)
  • 58. The Future of Civicware & Engagement?
  • 59. Civicware & Policy Simulation via Gaming Mechanics