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A21 stCentury Roadmap:The Future of Infrastructure                       Presented by: Garry Golden
ConfrontingConstraintsFuel Production,‘Grid’ Dynamics& Limits to ‘Go’
Peak Production ofConventional Oil
Critical Assumption #1: Oil Field Discovery
Critical Assumption #2: Geopolitical Stability
Critical Assumption #3: Non-Conventional Growth
21st Century Challenges‘The Grid’Critical Assumptions Bigger              Smarter     Plugging In Is Better           is B...
21st Century ChallengesMobilityCritical AssumptionsHuman                Transit     OwnershipBehavior             is Bette...
21st Century VisionEnablingInnovation
Incremental & Transformational Changes to Infrastructure                               Incremental Innovation             ...
?Performance over time                   Plateau of ChangeS-Curve Shape of                           ‘Mainstreaming’‘Major...
Eras of                                   Planes                                         /RocketsMobility                 ...
Monitoring Slow Change Phase of Development                                                2050                          ‘...
Eras of                                             SiliconManufacturing                                Plastics          ...
Functionalization:             2050                           Active NanostructuresCharacterization:      Functionalizatio...
21st Century Nano-Materials for EnergyNanoparticles         Nanotubes              Nanosheets                             ...
Social MediaEras ofCommunication                  Broadcast Media                                     Machine-to-     One-...
‘Minor’ Eras of Communication                                             Learning                                        ...
The ‘Era’ Evolution of Data’s Value Chain                            Prescriptive                            What should h...
Energy                      Systems          Future                   TransportationPresent              & Mobility
Eras for Energy & Fuels Market                         $500 M                         Investment ‘Extracting’ Reserves    ...
Eras for Power Generation                            Bigger…                            Smarter…                          ...
Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation Distributed Power Generation Infrastructure-based Natural Gas
Every Object is a Power Plant?Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power GenerationPortable Fuels & Micro Energy
Fuel Cells 101 Electrochemical Device                Magic Material  (Hydrogen plus Oxygen = Energy)                      ...
Market Signals of Smart & Distributed Transitions                                                2050                     ...
Possible Future:Consumers start to ‘unplug’ as devices and appliancescontain their own embedded power systems?  ‘Unpluggin...
A More Likely & Favorable Future for UtilitiesDistributed Power = Micro Grids
Questions    &Discussion             Garry Golden             http://www.garrygolden.net             garrygolden@gmail.com...
2010Year OneInfrastructure Implications:Electrification of World’s Auto Fleet
What powers an ‘electric’ car?A. Batteries   B. Hydrogen    C. Capacitors                 Fuel Cells
Infrastructure: Electricity-Hydrogen‘Plug in’ Battery EVs      Integrated Fuel cell EVs    •Utility Controlled       •Ener...
Why are they going ‘electric’? A. Changing   B. Changing    Climate       Business                  Models
Vehicle Electrification Carbon Footprint Manufacturing Footprint
2000s                               ‘Plateau’          1950-90s        Era of         ‘Accelerating’   Combustion Engine 1...
Global Auto Industry Imperative:Transform Manufacturing
EV Manufacturing / After MarketBusiness Case for Electric AgeAutomakers                        Driver Experience•Lower Man...
Radicals: Open Source Hardware & Low Volume Builds  ‘Mass Assembly’ to ‘Mass Customization’
21st Century ‘Fleets’ for Transit & On-Demand SolutionsBusiness Model Innovations• Intermodal Solutions  ‘Last Mile’ Conne...
Questions    &Discussion             Garry Golden             http://www.garrygolden.net             garrygolden@gmail.com...
Infrastructure vs Infrastructure ExperienceEngineering User ExperienceTransportation (Transit)           Software forInfor...
Infrastructure ExperienceWeb-oriented Infrastructure Experience  Anonymous Web …. to a more Social Web       1998         ...
While on the road, only my              friends know that I’m a dog!     Civic Culture adapting toNetworked Infrastructure...
Infrastructure ExperienceWhat We Don’t Know About Infrastructure Use                            Simulated vs ‘Natural Data’
How do we enable new behavior based on  data-driven transportation experiences                   and business models?     ...
Changing Infrastructure Behavior                  via “Gaming Mechanics”•Rules & Rewards•Challenges & Goals•Badges & Recog...
Teaching Infrastructure Systems                           via Gaming Mechanics User Base •80 million Monthly •30 million D...
Changing Behavior & Infrastructure Optimization                         via Gaming Mechanics    Leaderboards, Points, and ...
Plausible Future:Every infrastructure component & user has a ranking & reputation based on performance?A Transparent & Acc...
Questions    &Discussion             Garry Golden             http://www.garrygolden.net             garrygolden@gmail.com...
Data & Business Models for enabling: ‘Driver’ to ‘Captain’          Prescriptive     PredictiveDescriptive
Value Capture vs. Value CreationEras for Infrastructure & Engineering Industry         Engineering                  Design...
The Big Picture Transition  20th Century Dynamics      21st Century Dynamics          of Central Grid      of ‘Smart’ & Di...
Carbon-based                       Infrastructure“Bridge in Backpack”
Building Things! Nanoscale Era of Infrastructure Nanostructured Materials: • Spectrum of Applications   (e.g. Maintenance/...
Nanotechnology ResourcesPrimary Nanotube Production               Automotive Nano-IntegratorsOther Players:Arkema, Catalyx...
Powering Go! Era of Electrification• Assessing Full Impact• Future-proofing Infrastructure  (e.g. Plug-in & Molecule Fuels...
The Future of Civicware & Engagement?
Civicware & Policy Simulation via Gaming Mechanics
A 21st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure
A 21st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure
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A 21st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure

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Transcript of "A 21st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure"

  1. 1. A21 stCentury Roadmap:The Future of Infrastructure Presented by: Garry Golden
  2. 2. ConfrontingConstraintsFuel Production,‘Grid’ Dynamics& Limits to ‘Go’
  3. 3. Peak Production ofConventional Oil
  4. 4. Critical Assumption #1: Oil Field Discovery
  5. 5. Critical Assumption #2: Geopolitical Stability
  6. 6. Critical Assumption #3: Non-Conventional Growth
  7. 7. 21st Century Challenges‘The Grid’Critical Assumptions Bigger Smarter Plugging In Is Better is Better Matters
  8. 8. 21st Century ChallengesMobilityCritical AssumptionsHuman Transit OwnershipBehavior is Better Matters
  9. 9. 21st Century VisionEnablingInnovation
  10. 10. Incremental & Transformational Changes to Infrastructure Incremental Innovation Within an Era versus Transformational Innovation Across New Eras
  11. 11. ?Performance over time Plateau of ChangeS-Curve Shape of ‘Mainstreaming’‘Major’ & ‘Minor’ Eras Disruptions Rapid Change lead to Next Era!!! ‘Accelerating’ Slow Change ‘Emerging’
  12. 12. Eras of Planes /RocketsMobility Cars Rail Boats What is next? •Autonomous Vehicles Human / Animals •Sub-orbital
  13. 13. Monitoring Slow Change Phase of Development 2050 ‘Driver to Captain’ Software Supported Systems 2025 20202004 2007 2010 2015
  14. 14. Eras of SiliconManufacturing Plastics Copper Bronze Iron-Steel What is next? Clay •Carbon Materials Stone Wood (Nanoscale) •Biomaterials
  15. 15. Functionalization: 2050 Active NanostructuresCharacterization: Functionalization:Passive Nanostructures Passive Nanostructures 2030 2025 1990 2009 2010
  16. 16. 21st Century Nano-Materials for EnergyNanoparticles Nanotubes Nanosheets (Graphene) Production – Transmission – Storage - Management – Fuel Storage – Conversion
  17. 17. Social MediaEras ofCommunication Broadcast Media Machine-to- One-to-One Machine ‘M2M’
  18. 18. ‘Minor’ Eras of Communication Learning Systems Cloud Computing Linked ‘Smart’ Data Pre-’Web’ Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0 Broadcast Era Info Portal Social Web Services
  19. 19. The ‘Era’ Evolution of Data’s Value Chain Prescriptive What should happen? Predictive What might happen? Descriptive What has happened?
  20. 20. Energy Systems Future TransportationPresent & Mobility
  21. 21. Eras for Energy & Fuels Market $500 M Investment ‘Extracting’ Reserves ‘Growing’ Energy (Geosciences) (Biosciences/Materials Design)
  22. 22. Eras for Power Generation Bigger… Smarter… Integrated…Central Power Plants & Fuel Markets Stranded…
  23. 23. Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation Distributed Power Generation Infrastructure-based Natural Gas
  24. 24. Every Object is a Power Plant?Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power GenerationPortable Fuels & Micro Energy
  25. 25. Fuel Cells 101 Electrochemical Device Magic Material (Hydrogen plus Oxygen = Energy) (Membrane Electrode Assembly)
  26. 26. Market Signals of Smart & Distributed Transitions 2050 2030 2020 2015 2008 2009 2010
  27. 27. Possible Future:Consumers start to ‘unplug’ as devices and appliancescontain their own embedded power systems? ‘Unplugging’ Power Plants ‘Retail Packets’ Beyond the Grid $1 $10 Solid Hydrogen / $100 $1000 Liquid Fuels
  28. 28. A More Likely & Favorable Future for UtilitiesDistributed Power = Micro Grids
  29. 29. Questions &Discussion Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com 347-463-7412
  30. 30. 2010Year OneInfrastructure Implications:Electrification of World’s Auto Fleet
  31. 31. What powers an ‘electric’ car?A. Batteries B. Hydrogen C. Capacitors Fuel Cells
  32. 32. Infrastructure: Electricity-Hydrogen‘Plug in’ Battery EVs Integrated Fuel cell EVs •Utility Controlled •Energy Majors (‘Big Oil’) •Fixed Access points •Portable ‘Molecule’ Fuels spectrum: •Fleet Vehicles NatGas, Biofuels, H2 (Solid, Gas, Liquid) •Mass Markets
  33. 33. Why are they going ‘electric’? A. Changing B. Changing Climate Business Models
  34. 34. Vehicle Electrification Carbon Footprint Manufacturing Footprint
  35. 35. 2000s ‘Plateau’ 1950-90s Era of ‘Accelerating’ Combustion Engine 1920s‘Emerging’
  36. 36. Global Auto Industry Imperative:Transform Manufacturing
  37. 37. EV Manufacturing / After MarketBusiness Case for Electric AgeAutomakers Driver Experience•Lower Manufacturing cost •Telematics / Driver Support (Wheel based motors) (Software-Services) (Drive by Wire) •Lower Operating Cost
  38. 38. Radicals: Open Source Hardware & Low Volume Builds ‘Mass Assembly’ to ‘Mass Customization’
  39. 39. 21st Century ‘Fleets’ for Transit & On-Demand SolutionsBusiness Model Innovations• Intermodal Solutions ‘Last Mile’ Connections• Urban On-Demand Point to Point Service New Fleet Vision for Transit• Smaller Highway Footprint Transforming Capacity
  40. 40. Questions &Discussion Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com 347-463-7412
  41. 41. Infrastructure vs Infrastructure ExperienceEngineering User ExperienceTransportation (Transit) Software forInformation Services Human PerformanceMore Social & Transparent ‘Growing with Flow’
  42. 42. Infrastructure ExperienceWeb-oriented Infrastructure Experience Anonymous Web …. to a more Social Web 1998 2008
  43. 43. While on the road, only my friends know that I’m a dog! Civic Culture adapting toNetworked Infrastructure on the go…
  44. 44. Infrastructure ExperienceWhat We Don’t Know About Infrastructure Use Simulated vs ‘Natural Data’
  45. 45. How do we enable new behavior based on data-driven transportation experiences and business models? DIKW SpectrumData – Information – Knowledge – Wisdom
  46. 46. Changing Infrastructure Behavior via “Gaming Mechanics”•Rules & Rewards•Challenges & Goals•Badges & Recognition (Stages of Mastery)•Reputation Management•Teamwork & StrategyGoal: Advance from Novice to Master Level Skills
  47. 47. Teaching Infrastructure Systems via Gaming Mechanics User Base •80 million Monthly •30 million Daily Demographic •Female (35-50 years old)
  48. 48. Changing Behavior & Infrastructure Optimization via Gaming Mechanics Leaderboards, Points, and Status
  49. 49. Plausible Future:Every infrastructure component & user has a ranking & reputation based on performance?A Transparent & Accountable ‘Pay as you…’ World?
  50. 50. Questions &Discussion Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com 347-463-7412
  51. 51. Data & Business Models for enabling: ‘Driver’ to ‘Captain’ Prescriptive PredictiveDescriptive
  52. 52. Value Capture vs. Value CreationEras for Infrastructure & Engineering Industry Engineering Designing Systems ‘Build’ with Steel & Concrete ‘Dynamic Management’ Software/Sensors & Services
  53. 53. The Big Picture Transition 20th Century Dynamics 21st Century Dynamics of Central Grid of ‘Smart’ & Distributed Power Production Networked Energy Systems
  54. 54. Carbon-based Infrastructure“Bridge in Backpack”
  55. 55. Building Things! Nanoscale Era of Infrastructure Nanostructured Materials: • Spectrum of Applications (e.g. Maintenance/Preservation) • Lifecycle Impact/Testing • Industry Partnerships (e.g. Reducing Vehicle Weight/Impact) • Roadmap Development Exploring Transformative Performance Properties • Mechanical • Chemical • Thermal • Electrical • Sensing • Dispersion
  56. 56. Nanotechnology ResourcesPrimary Nanotube Production Automotive Nano-IntegratorsOther Players:Arkema, Catalyx Nanotech, Clariant, Hanwha Nanotech Corporation, Honeywell(Aegis), Hyperion Catalysis International, Nanocyl, Nanoledge, Raymor Industries,Inc., Rosseter Holdings, Shenzhen Nanotech Port, Showa Denko, SouthWestNanoTechnologies, Inc., Sun Nanotech.
  57. 57. Powering Go! Era of Electrification• Assessing Full Impact• Future-proofing Infrastructure (e.g. Plug-in & Molecule Fuels)• Industry / Sector-based Partnerships (e.g. Fleets; Freight )• Assessing Discontinuities (e.g. Urban Pod Form Factor)• Leveraging Digitally-enabled Users (Grow with Flow; ‘Captains’)
  58. 58. The Future of Civicware & Engagement?
  59. 59. Civicware & Policy Simulation via Gaming Mechanics
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