New Directions in Structured Thinking for Intelligence Analysis Dr. Tim van Gelder Principal, Austhink [email_address]

Overview Three trends in intelligence analysis Visualisation Structured techniques Higher cognitive processes One convergence point: Mapping techniques Future Trend: Hypothesis Mapping

Three trends in intelligence analysis

Visualisation

Structured techniques

Higher cognitive processes

One convergence point: Mapping techniques

Future Trend: Hypothesis Mapping

Trend 1: Use of Visualisation

Trend 2: Focus on higher-level cognitive processes Bloom's Taxonomy of Cognitive Processes Attention is moving up the value hierarchy

Trend 3: Adoption of structured analytical techniques Argument Mapping Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Key Assumptions Check Indicators or Signposts of Change Quality of Information Check Deception Detection Devil’s Advocacy Team A / Team B Analysis “ What If?” Analysis High-Impact / Low Probability Analysis Red Team Analysis, Alternative Futures Analysis

Argument Mapping

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Key Assumptions Check

Indicators or Signposts of Change

Quality of Information Check

Deception Detection

Devil’s Advocacy

Team A / Team B Analysis

“ What If?” Analysis

High-Impact / Low Probability Analysis

Red Team Analysis,

Alternative Futures Analysis

Convergence One point of convergence of these three trends is a family of “mapping” techniques

Link Analysis Link analysis supports a mid-level cognitive process with sophisticated visualisation tools (e.g. Analyst's Notebook) But so what?

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) A structured analytical technique for a high-level cognitive process (hypothesis testing) using rudimentary visualisation From Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Major Problems with ACH Can't handle hierarchical hypothesis sets Can't display subordinate argumentation Can't display co-premises Tedious and disorienting to use These problems linked to poor choice of visualisation

Can't handle hierarchical hypothesis sets

Can't display subordinate argumentation

Can't display co-premises

Tedious and disorienting to use

Hypothesis Mapping Hierarchical hypothesis sets

Hypothesis Mapping Subordinate argumentation

Hypothesis Mapping Co-premises (critical assumptions)

An emerging hypothesis map

bCisive 2 Software for rapid assembly, modification and sharing of hypothesis maps, argument maps and decision maps

Future Trend From To ACH Hypothesis Mapping

Recap Three trends in intelligence analysis Visualisation Structured techniques Higher cognitive processes One convergence point: Mapping techniques Future Trend : Hypothesis Mapping as an alternative to Analysis of Competing Hypothesis

Three trends in intelligence analysis

Visualisation

Structured techniques

Higher cognitive processes

One convergence point: Mapping techniques

Future Trend : Hypothesis Mapping as an alternative to Analysis of Competing Hypothesis

New Directions in Structured Thinking for Intelligence Analysis Dr. Tim van Gelder Principal, Austhink [email_address]