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Slides from my talk to the Warburg Pincus TMT CEO Retreat at Auberge du Soleil.

Slides from my talk to the Warburg Pincus TMT CEO Retreat at Auberge du Soleil.

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Warburg2011 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Towards a Global Brain Tim O’Reilly O’Reilly Media Warburg Pincus TMT CEO Retreat October 11, 2011Monday, October 24, 11
  • 2. “The skill of writing is to create a context in which other people can think.” -Edwin SchlossbergMonday, October 24, 11
  • 3. The Google Autonomous VehicleMonday, October 24, 11
  • 4. The extraordinary convergence of computing and human potentialMonday, October 24, 11
  • 5. Towards a global brainMonday, October 24, 11
  • 6. The advent of global consciousness?Monday, October 24, 11
  • 7. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 8. A few key assertions § We are building a network-mediated global mind § It is not skynet § It is us, augmentedMonday, October 24, 11
  • 9. “global consciousness is that thing responsible for deciding that pots containing decaffeinated coffee should be orange” – Danny Hillis (via Jeff Bezos) – http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/network/2005/03/16/etech_3.htmlMonday, October 24, 11
  • 10. Artificial Intelligence “the science and engineering of making intelligent machines” -John McCarthy, 1956Monday, October 24, 11
  • 11. Intelligence Augmentation “One cannot hope thus to equal the speed and flexibility with which the mind follows an associative trail, but it should be possible to beat the mind decisively in regard to the permanence and clarity of the items resurrected from storage. Consider a future device for individual use, which is a sort of mechanized private file and library. It needs a name, and, to coin one at random, "memex" will do.” – Vannevar Bush, As We May Think, 1945Monday, October 24, 11
  • 12. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 13. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 14. A device that knows where I am better than I do, a knowing assistant telling me where to go and how to get there.Monday, October 24, 11
  • 15. Beyond information retrieval: real time connection with other people and what they know.Monday, October 24, 11
  • 16. Man-Computer Symbiosis “The hope is that, in not too many years, human brains and computing machines will be coupled together very tightly, and that the resulting partnership will think as no human brain has ever thought and process data in a way not approached by the information-handling machines we know today.” – Licklider, J.C.R., "Man-Computer Symbiosis", IRE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics, vol. HFE-1, 4-11, Mar 1960. EprintMonday, October 24, 11
  • 17. Harnessing Collective IntelligenceMonday, October 24, 11
  • 18. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 19. wikipediaMonday, October 24, 11
  • 20. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 21. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 22. A device with eyes and ears, with a sense of place, and motion, and proximity, with memory of what it’s seen and where it’s been, senses sharper than our own.Monday, October 24, 11
  • 23. The spread of sensors § sensor platform slideMonday, October 24, 11
  • 24. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 25. 2005: Stanley Wins the DARPA Grand ChallengeMonday, October 24, 11
  • 26. The “intelligent” devices of the future are cloud-connected “We don’t have better algorithms. We just have more data.” - Peter Norvig, Chief Scientist, GoogleMonday, October 24, 11
  • 27. Government as PlatformMonday, October 24, 11
  • 28. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 29. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 30. Vending Machine Government Vending Machine Gov concept from Donald Kettl: The Next Government of the United StatesMonday, October 24, 11
  • 31. We Need to Do More Than Shake the Vending Machine! http://image06.webshots.com/6/2/57/50/190125750NgQXwu_ph.jpgMonday, October 24, 11
  • 32. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 33. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 34. The global brain is us, connected and augmentedMonday, October 24, 11
  • 35. Algorithmic RegulationMonday, October 24, 11
  • 36. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 37. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 38. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 39. for profit collegesMonday, October 24, 11
  • 40. “Would you be willing to cross the street with information that was five minutes old?” -Jeff JonasMonday, October 24, 11
  • 41. Vannevar Bush’s Memex - 1945Monday, October 24, 11
  • 42. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 43. “Your job as a parent is to prepare your child for the future.”Monday, October 24, 11
  • 44. If the global brain is still a child, what should we be teaching it? How should we be rearing it?Monday, October 24, 11
  • 45. Predictive analytics in information applications mirrors human learningMonday, October 24, 11
  • 46. Our algorithms and the goals we set for them mirror human vices and virtuesMonday, October 24, 11
  • 47. We are all Khaled SaidMonday, October 24, 11
  • 48. “Access to all the world’s information” “How can applications be better when they are social?” “Changing the world by spreading the knowledge of innovators”Monday, October 24, 11
  • 49. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 50. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 51. How can we make the emerging global consciousness not only smarter and more resilient, but more moral?Monday, October 24, 11
  • 52. "The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads." -Jeff HammerbacherMonday, October 24, 11
  • 53. “Virtue is remembering what you really want” -James O’ReillyMonday, October 24, 11
  • 54. Monday, October 24, 11
  • 55. We’ve got one world. We’d better get it right.Monday, October 24, 11