State of the Internet Operating System

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Slides from my keynote at PayPal Innovate 09 Conference. Focuses on the risks of increasing centralization of web data services, and the need for more federated services. Will the Internet Operating …

Slides from my keynote at PayPal Innovate 09 Conference. Focuses on the risks of increasing centralization of web data services, and the need for more federated services. Will the Internet Operating System be small pieces loosely joined, or will there be One Ring to Rule Them All? We choose.

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  • Google decided to make their own speech database. Microsoft bought Tellme. Ditto location: Nokia bought Navteq, Google has done its own, upping the ante with streetview.
  • The same principle applies to translation. It gets better with more data. Expect google to offer mobile translation products within the next year or two, integrated with Google Voice...
  • The Wave Robots list is a great way to look at possible futures.
  • Imagine auto-translation added here.
  • Results from 90 million geotagged photos on Flickr: http://code.flickr.com/blog/2008/10/30/the-shape-of-alpha/
  • “Reality mining.”
  • Reality mining :-)
  • Each device is recognizable solely from its “energy signature.”
  • Telling who’s gay by who their friends are. No privacy in the era of machine learning.
  • If possible talk here about the changing nature of knowledge work. How google search quality works.
  • Sensors and machine learning
  • Sensors and machine learning
  • Let’s do a little forward-looking speculation about image recognition.
  • Sensors and machine learning
  • Ribbit, from BT, works a lot like Google Voice, but lets you start with any phone number
  • Ribbit’s SF integration shows how voice can be an add-in UI to other applications, via web services. Expect Google to follow this lead.

Transcript

  • 1. The State of the Internet Operating System Tim O’Reilly Paypal Innovate November 3, 2009
  • 2. Cloud Computing “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
  • 3. Web 2.0 “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
  • 4. What Web 2.0 and Cloud Computing Are Really All About We’re building an internet operating system
  • 5. An internet operating system? You must be kidding.  There’s no storage  No scheduling  No processing  No memory management  ... Bram Cohen of BitTorrent, 1st Web 2.0 Conference 2004
  • 6. "The Law of Conservation of Attractive Profits" "When attractive profits disappear at one stage in the value chain because a product becomes modular and commoditized, the opportunity to earn attractive profits with proprietary products will usually emerge at an adjacent stage." -- Clayton Christensen Author of The Innovator's Solution In Harvard Business Review, February 2004
  • 7. Internet Operating System “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
  • 8. The Internet Operating System  Its subsystems are databases of – People – Places – Things – Prices – Documents – Images – Sounds – Relationships – Trust metrics – ...  and services that help people use them – Search – Payment – Matching and Recognition – ...
  • 9. The O’Reilly Radar Methodology  William Gibson: “The future is here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.”  We “watch the alpha geeks” and think about the futures they are living in  We then look for trend data that tells us that a particular future is becoming mainstream  I’m going to tell you some seemingly unconnected technology stories from the front lines of innovation. Then we’re going to connect the dots.
  • 10. <1>
  • 11. The smart phone plus local search. Today pizza, Pizza Nostra, 300 De Haro CyBelle’s Pizza, 975 Bryant Extreme Pizza, 1062 Folsom
  • 12. An application running on a mobile device whose user interface is driven by sensors: - Touch screen - Motion and proximity sensors - Microphone - GPS or cell tower triangulation
  • 13. An application that depends on cooperating cloud data services: - Speech recognition - Search - Location
  • 14. These cloud data services are combined to do a job that none of them could do alone.
  • 15. Expect auto-translation
  • 16. These suggest mindbending possibilities  Expect automated speech recognition and automated real-time translation throughout Google products  Google Suggest “database of intentions” gives them an advantage in understanding what people intend to say  The Star Trek universal translator is within the scope of Google’s ambition  These products will be relatively weak at introduction but will get better the more people use them.  Speech recognition and translation will be integrated with other applications via web services  Pretty darn cool, and definitely NOT a PC-era operating system!
  • 17. <2>
  • 18. Our devices are full of sensors. New applications are figuring out how to learn from those sensors.
  • 19. AMEE - the world’s energy meter
  • 20. The real world casts information shadows
  • 21. Machine Learning not just for robots
  • 22. Web 2.0 is about finding meaning in user-generated data, and turning that meaning into real-time user- facing services. “Web Squared” takes that same concept to real-time sensor data.
  • 23. <3>
  • 24. Google Maps with Street View
  • 25. Cloud + mobile = “Augmented Reality”
  • 26. <4>
  • 27. Cooperating data services? Face recognition + Social Network + Location
  • 28. We learn by “context accumulation.” Future applications will do so too.
  • 29. <5>
  • 30. The big question  If the Internet becomes an operating system, what is the architecture of that operating system? One Ring to Rule Them All
  • 31. The big question  What is the architecture of that operating system? Small Pieces Loosely Joined
  • 32. The smart phone plus local search. Today pizza, Pizza Nostra, 300 De Haro CyBelle’s Pizza, 975 Bryant Extreme Pizza, 1062 Folsom
  • 33.  How cool would it be to add pizza ordering?
  • 34. <6>
  • 35. PayPal  A first order Internet data subsystem – 80 million active users – 15,000 financial institutions – 190 countries, 24 currencies – Not just payment but identity, fraud detection, risk management, and more  Inherently Decentralized – Internet endpoints call the service to get the benefit of the networked data at the center – P2P Payments – Decentralized website checkout for 60% of e-commerce  A model for the way the internet operating system ought to work
  • 36. Advice for PayPal
  • 37. “API design is like sex: make one mistake and support if for the rest of your life.” --attributed to Josh Bloch
  • 38. More than payment
  • 39. You use your wallet for  Payment  Identification  Loyalty cards, discount coupons  Receipts  Special things to keep and share  All of these things are moving out of the physical wallet, many of them onto the phone  There is a huge opportunity to build innovative new services to do these jobs.  PayPal provides a unique back-end
  • 40. Build services that mash up  Speech recognition  Location OpenStreetMap  Social networks  Government  Payment
  • 41. The Robustness Principle “TCP implementations should follow a general principle of robustness: be conservative in what you do, be liberal in what you accept from others.” --Jon Postel in RFC 761 (Transmission Control Protocol, 1980)
  • 42. That’s how we get to this Small Pieces Loosely Joined
  • 43. And don’t end up here One Ring to Rule Them All