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Silverchair Strategies

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My keynote at the Silverchair Strategies conference. Big trends in technology, but also thoughts on what scientific publishers need to learn from those trends.

My keynote at the Silverchair Strategies conference. Big trends in technology, but also thoughts on what scientific publishers need to learn from those trends.

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  • 1. Some Context for Thinking About the Future Tim O’Reilly O’Reilly Media Silverchair Strategies October 28, 2011Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 2. You may know me as a computer book publisherWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 3. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 4. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 5. “The skill of writing is to create a context in which other people can think.” -Edwin SchlossbergWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 6. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 7. The Internet as PlatformWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 8. How can you call it an operating system? • No kernel • No memory management • No processor Photo: Patrick Tufts http://www.flickr.com/photos/zippy/50537423/sizes/o/Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 9. The Internet Operating System Controls Access to Data An application that depends on cooperating cloud data services: - Location - Search - Speech recognition - Live Traffic - ImageryWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 10. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 11. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 12. Intelligence Augmentation “One cannot hope thus to equal the speed and flexibility with which the mind follows an associative trail, but it should be possible to beat the mind decisively in regard to the permanence and clarity of the items resurrected from storage. Consider a future device for individual use, which is a sort of mechanized private file and library. It needs a name, and, to coin one at random, "memex" will do.” -Vannevar Bush, As We May Think, 1945Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 13. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 14. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 15. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 16. What’s Next?Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 17. 3.0? The Semantic Web?Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 18. A device that augments our senses as well as our ability to retrieve information.Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 19. A device that augments our senses as well as our ability to retrieve information. And a device that maps sensory data onto a semantic database.Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 20. Getting Beyond “Information Retrieval” Sensors + Semantics = ServicesWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 21. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 22. Artificial Intelligence “the science and engineering of making intelligent machines” -John McCarthy, 1956Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 23. The Google Autonomous VehicleWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 24. 2005: Stanley Wins the DARPA Grand ChallengeWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 25. The “intelligent” devices of the future are cloud-connected “We don’t have better algorithms. We just have more data.” - Peter Norvig, Chief Scientist, GoogleWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 26. Human-Computer Symbiosis “The hope is that, in not too many years, human brains and computing machines will be coupled together very tightly, and that the resulting partnership will think as no human brain has ever thought and process data in a way not approached by the information-handling machines we know today.” – Licklider, J.C.R., "Man-Computer Symbiosis", IRE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics, vol. HFE-1, 4-11, Mar 1960. EprintWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 27. Towards a global brainWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 28. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 29. A few key assertions • We are building a network-mediated global mind • It is not skynet • It is us, augmentedWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 30. Harnessing Collective Intelligence “global consciousness is that thing responsible for deciding that pots containing decaffeinated coffee should be orange” – Danny Hillis (via Jeff Bezos)Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 31. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 32. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 33. “Would you be willing to cross the street with information that was five minutes old?” -Jeff JonasWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 34. “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I dont know which half.” - John Wanamaker (1838-1922)Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 35. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 36. “Only 1% of healthcare spend now goes to diagnosis. We need to shift from the idea that you do diagnosis at the start, followed by treatment, to a cycle of diagnosis, treatment, diagnosis...as we explore what works.” -Pascale Witz, GE Medical DiagnosticsWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 37. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 38. for profit collegesWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 39. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 40. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 41. • strataWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 42. “How can applications be better when they are social?” -Mark ZuckerbergWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 43. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 44. The Web Has an “Architecture of Participation” • Small, modular pieces • Joined by open communications protocols • An open, standard data format • Extensibility by designWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 45. The Web Has an “Architecture of Participation” • Small, modular pieces • Joined by open communications protocols • An open, standard data format • Extensibility by design This is also true of open source software projects like Linux and Apache This is what makes emergent behavior possible, with no prior agreement between the partiesWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 46. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 47. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 48. wikipediaWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 49. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 50. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 51. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 52. “Wikipedia is not an encyclopedia. It is a virtual city, a city whose main export to the world is its encyclopedia articles, but with an internal life of its own.”Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 53. “The architecture of attention”Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 54. Kasparov vs. The World (1999) “The greatest game in the history of chess.” -Gary Kasparov “Although Krush was inferior to Kasparov in nearly all areas of chess, in this particular area of microexpertise, she surpassed even him”Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 55. Getting Beyond “Information Retrieval” Don’t forget about the community that creates your contentWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 56. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 57. Software as a Service Von Kempelens Mechanical TurkWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 58. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 59. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 60. Software Above The Level of A Single DeviceWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 61. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 62. The spread of sensors • sensor platform slideWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 63. Getting Beyond “Information Retrieval” Is there an opportunity for a standard data and connectivity platform for these UI-less devices?Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 64. The power of platforms: Create value for othersWednesday, November 2, 11
  • 65. The power of platforms: Create value for others 4Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 66. Wednesday, November 2, 11
  • 67. Steve Jobs on Design “In most people’s vocabularies, design means veneer. It’s interior decorating. It’s the fabric of the curtains and the sofa. But to me...design is the fundamental soul of a man-made creation that ends up expressing itself in successive outer layers of the product or service." http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/08/business/how-steve-jobs-infused-passion-into-a- commodity.html?hp=&pagewanted=allWednesday, November 2, 11

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