Thinking Hard About the Future

                    Tim O’Reilly

                   July 21, 2010
                       ...
“I’m an inventor.
 I became interested in
 long term trends
 because an invention
 has to make sense in the
 world in whic...
“The future is here.
It’s just not evenly
distributed yet.”
      - William Gibson
Harlan Ellison
Text




http://visaocarioca.com.br/?p=4270
The Black Christ of Portobelo, Panama
(not the one Harlan Ellison saw in Rio, but you get the idea...)
“the bottom line of what I've rambled on about here...
[is] to tell you that as night approaches we are all
aliens, down h...
What’s most important about open source




       “The Cornucopia of the Commons”
   Open Source
   Web 2.0
   “Crowdsourcing”
   “the Commons”
   Gov 2.0




 All about what happens when we work to...
Work on stuff that matters
   Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble!

  Financial crises
  Worst income inequality since the Gilded
   Age
  Oi...
Mission 4636
“the Adhocracy”
“We the people...”
Vending Machine Government




                             Vending Machine Gov concept from Donald Kettl:
               ...
We Need to Do More Than Shake
the Vending Machine!




             http://image06.webshots.com/6/2/57/50/190125750NgQXwu_...
Connecting the dots
Build a better world
Together
“Otherwise, why would you have traveled
all this way . . . just to be alone?”
http://codeforamerica.org
Oscon2010 Keynote
Oscon2010 Keynote
Oscon2010 Keynote
Oscon2010 Keynote
Oscon2010 Keynote
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Oscon2010 Keynote

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This short talk is about the thread that ties together open source software, web 2.0, and government: the power and importance of shared effort to solve hard problems. It is keyed off of a wonderful quote from the introduction Harlan Ellison wrote to his 1969 collection of short stories, The Beast That Shouted Love at the Heart of the World. In it, Harlan talks about the statue of Christ the Redeemer in Rio, and ends with a stirring reminder that no one is going to come down off the hill to save us. We need to save ourselves.

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  • Transcript of "Oscon2010 Keynote"

    1. 1. Thinking Hard About the Future Tim O’Reilly July 21, 2010 OSCON
    2. 2. “I’m an inventor. I became interested in long term trends because an invention has to make sense in the world in which it is finished, not the world in which it is started.” -Ray Kurzweil
    3. 3. “The future is here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” - William Gibson
    4. 4. Harlan Ellison
    5. 5. Text http://visaocarioca.com.br/?p=4270
    6. 6. The Black Christ of Portobelo, Panama (not the one Harlan Ellison saw in Rio, but you get the idea...)
    7. 7. “the bottom line of what I've rambled on about here... [is] to tell you that as night approaches we are all aliens, down here on this alien Earth. To tell you that not Christ nor man nor governments of men will save you. To tell you that writers about tomorrow must stop living in yesterday and work from their hearts and their guts and their courage to tell us about tomorrow, before all the tomorrows are stolen away from us. To tell you no one will come down from the mountain to save your lily-white hide or your black ass. God is within you. Save yourselves. “Otherwise, why would you have traveled all this way . . . just to be alone?” --Harlan Ellison, Introduction
    8. 8. What’s most important about open source “The Cornucopia of the Commons”
    9. 9.  Open Source  Web 2.0  “Crowdsourcing”  “the Commons”  Gov 2.0  All about what happens when we work together  And about systems that make it easier for us to work together
    10. 10. Work on stuff that matters
    11. 11.  Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
    12. 12. Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble!  Financial crises  Worst income inequality since the Gilded Age  Oil price shock  Global warming  Decline in science literacy & education  Water scarcity  Exotic diseases  Aging populations and soaring health costs  Decline in economic competitiveness and innovation  Dysfunctional political system
    13. 13. Mission 4636
    14. 14. “the Adhocracy”
    15. 15. “We the people...”
    16. 16. Vending Machine Government Vending Machine Gov concept from Donald Kettl: The Next Government of the United States
    17. 17. We Need to Do More Than Shake the Vending Machine! http://image06.webshots.com/6/2/57/50/190125750NgQXwu_ph.jpg
    18. 18. Connecting the dots
    19. 19. Build a better world
    20. 20. Together
    21. 21. “Otherwise, why would you have traveled all this way . . . just to be alone?”
    22. 22. http://codeforamerica.org
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