The Real Open Source Opportunity

                                                  Tim O’Reilly

                        ...
Open Source in the Age of the Cloud

                                                     Tim O’Reilly

                  ...
“Major Strasser has been shot...
       Round up the usual suspects”




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Open Source              Web 2.0   Cloud Computing

       “You keep using that word. I do not think it
       means what ...
You may think of me as a book publisher




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
What We Really Do At O'Reilly




                      Change the world by spreading the
                          knowle...
O’Reilly Radar Methodology
    “The future is here. It’s just not evenly distributed
     yet.” - William Gibson
    We ...
“I’m an inventor.
                             I became interested in
                             long term trends
      ...
<1>




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
What we see here
    Peer-to-peer credit card payments
    Social networks used for risk evaluation

    The PC is out ...
<2>




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The cloud future includes...
    Devices acting as sensors for intelligent data
     collection
    Devices whose UI is ...
Some of the open source hardware talks at OSCON
    Arduino: Open Source Hardware Hacking from the
     Software Nerd Per...
<3>




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The smart phone plus local search. Today pizza,




                              Pizelle Pizza, 50 Post Street
          ...
An application running on a
               mobile device whose user
               interface is driven by sensors:

      ...
An application that depends on
               cooperating cloud data services:

               - Speech recognition
      ...
<4>




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
•Search in plain English
                            •Search by voice
                            •Traffic view
          ...
An application that
               depends on cooperating
               cloud data services:

               - Location
 ...
Open Source              Web 2.0   Cloud Computing

       “You keep using that word. I do not think it
       means what ...
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The Internet Operating System is
                    A Data Operating System




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The Internet Operating System is a Data Operating System
    It helps applications find out about
         –   People
   ...
In Real Time




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
“Augmented Reality”




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The Yelp Monocle
    Find cafes nearby.




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
But how do you decide what data to show?




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
“We don’t have better algorithms than anyone
       else. We just have more data.”

                            --Peter No...
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The underdog is the ally of open source




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Potential open source supporters
       Search: Microsoft
       Maps: Microsoft, Yelp, Foursquare
       Speech: Nuanc...
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Interoperable web services, open data, and
       standard protocols are at least as important as
       open source




W...
Switching tracks (a bit)...




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Open Source and Scientific Data
     “With the very pressing issue of climate change, releasing raw data is vital.
  There...
AMEE - the world’s energy meter




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
For more information
   The Open Source Paradigm Shift (2003)
    http://bit.ly/cKLSUP
   What is Web 2.0? (2005)
    ht...
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Open Source in the Cloud Computing Era

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While open source software plays an important role in many cloud applications, we need to understand where the cloud is taking us or we'll find ourselves in the grip of a new monopoly. Open source needs to get serious about building interoperable open data services - they are the operating system of the internet.

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  • A list of open source projects were described in the presentation.
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  • City Real Estate Europe - http://www.cityorbestate.com


    عقار - http://www.3qarsa.net

    حكايات نواعم - http://www.nem-stories.com/vb/
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  • opensource,data
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  • Here is a summary of my disagreement with this thesis:

    It is all about the software. We already have more data than we know what to do with. The challenge has always been in making sense of it. The fact that Hadoop and Lucene exist is proof that Google's approach to free software is wrong.

    I can see how we are repeating the Microsoft mistake with Google, and yet Tim O'Reilly is focused only on easy import / export of scraps from Google.

    Is Google's map database open? How is that going? See, once you explain free software, free maps is a very short conversation.

    I also disagree that hardware is any limiting factor because you can get a terabyte drive for $100 at Best Buy.
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  • Hi Tim;

    I see there is a robust Linux kernel community and codebase, but no equivalent search engine community and codebase.

    I don't know what would happen if Google gave their code away years ago, but no one really knows. In fact, I think Google could be leading just as much because they would be at the center of it and they would be sharing the plumbing work with others so they could focus on new things in search. There would be no reason for Hadoop or Lucene and such, which will presumably eventually get there.

    I don't know the history on Nutch, and whether it was poorly advised, and I presume that 'a lack of data at scale' is a solved by hardware once you've got good software. So it seems short-sighted to say that one can't solve a hardware problem given Moore's law.

    One can get a terabyte of disk space for $100 today. Wikipedia runs on just a few hundred servers and it is a top 10 site on the Internet. We could build a heck of a search engine with just that datacenter. 100 terabytes gives you space for 1 megabyte of data for 100 million web sites. That gets you quite far down the long tail. It also seems like a hardware factor is the machines responding to user queries in addition to the web spiders maintaining the index. And whether you start writing lots of other random software like blogging and email.

    I don't think the free chip fab movement is that big of a deal. There aren't conferences about that. Hardware will always cost money but be a one-time cost. It is like conflating the value of blank paper versus paper with ideas on it.

    I agree lots of time has been wasted. I have documented inefficiencies all over the free software movement. There are a number of things to be worked on, but the biggest failure is that FOSS has not won the battle of ideas.

    I realize I am repeating many of the same points as those who came before. The free software movement is a complicated thing. I've enjoyed spending the last few years catching up and writing about it. One thing unique in my study is that I have focused on the inefficiencies and problems with the existing free software community. There are reasons why an army of millions is still losing to an army of thousands.

    -Keith
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Open Source in the Cloud Computing Era

  1. 1. The Real Open Source Opportunity Tim O’Reilly March 17, 2010 Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  2. 2. Open Source in the Age of the Cloud Tim O’Reilly March 17, 2010 Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  3. 3. “Major Strasser has been shot... Round up the usual suspects” Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  4. 4. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  5. 5. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  6. 6. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  7. 7. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  8. 8. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  9. 9. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  10. 10. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  11. 11. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  12. 12. Open Source Web 2.0 Cloud Computing “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  13. 13. You may think of me as a book publisher Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  14. 14. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  15. 15. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  16. 16. What We Really Do At O'Reilly Change the world by spreading the knowledge of innovators Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  17. 17. O’Reilly Radar Methodology  “The future is here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” - William Gibson  We “watch the alpha geeks” and think about the futures they are living in  We then look for trend data that tells us that a particular future is becoming mainstream  I’m going to tell you some seemingly unconnected technology stories from the front lines of innovation. Then we’re going to connect the dots. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  18. 18. “I’m an inventor. I became interested in long term trends because an invention has to make sense in the world in which it is finished, not the world in which it is started.” -Ray Kurzweil Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  19. 19. <1> Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  20. 20. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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  22. 22. What we see here  Peer-to-peer credit card payments  Social networks used for risk evaluation  The PC is out of the loop  The phone is a sensor platform – Hardware add-on innovation – Location based sensing – Touch screen UI  Processing is done in real time in the cloud – Allowing processing that can’t be done on the device – Big data analysis – Building new networks on the back of existing ones  Reinventing a major industry Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  23. 23. <2> Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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  32. 32. The cloud future includes...  Devices acting as sensors for intelligent data collection  Devices whose UI is on the web rather than the device  Feeding data into multiple online services that will turn into a full-on sensor web  Setting the stage for robotics, augmented reality, and the next generation of personal electronics Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  33. 33. Some of the open source hardware talks at OSCON  Arduino: Open Source Hardware Hacking from the Software Nerd Perspective http://www.arduino.cc/  Plumbing: Parallel Programming for Artists and Makers http://www.concurrency.cc/  Face detection on the iPhone with OpenCV  Environmental Monitoring with Arduino and compatibles  Open Source Data Visualization on Open Source Hardware  Software Control of Home Automation Systems  New Open Source Tools for Creating Embedded Linux Devices Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  34. 34. <3> Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  35. 35. The smart phone plus local search. Today pizza, Pizelle Pizza, 50 Post Street California Pizza Kitchen, 53 3rd Street Escape from NY Pizza, 333 Bush Street Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  36. 36. An application running on a mobile device whose user interface is driven by sensors: - Touch screen - Motion and proximity sensors - Microphone - GPS or cell tower triangulation Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  37. 37. An application that depends on cooperating cloud data services: - Speech recognition - Search - Location data In real time. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  38. 38. <4> Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  39. 39. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  40. 40. •Search in plain English •Search by voice •Traffic view •Search along route •Satellite view •Street view Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  41. 41. An application that depends on cooperating cloud data services: - Location - Search - Speech recognition - Live Traffic - Imagery Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  42. 42. Open Source Web 2.0 Cloud Computing “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  43. 43. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  44. 44. The Internet Operating System is A Data Operating System Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  45. 45. The Internet Operating System is a Data Operating System  It helps applications find out about – People – Places – Things – Prices – Documents – Images – Sounds – Relationships – ...  and helps people interact with them through services – Search – Payment – Matching and Recognition – ... Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  46. 46. In Real Time Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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  48. 48. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  49. 49. “Augmented Reality” Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  50. 50. The Yelp Monocle  Find cafes nearby. Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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  54. 54. But how do you decide what data to show? Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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  58. 58. “We don’t have better algorithms than anyone else. We just have more data.” --Peter Norvig, Chief Scientist, Google Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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  68. 68. The underdog is the ally of open source Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  69. 69. Potential open source supporters  Search: Microsoft  Maps: Microsoft, Yelp, Foursquare  Speech: Nuance, Microsoft  Social Graph: Google  Payment: ??  Cloud infrastructure: VMware  Smartphones: Google  Device Operating Systems: Google Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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  79. 79. Interoperable web services, open data, and standard protocols are at least as important as open source Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  80. 80. Switching tracks (a bit)... Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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  90. 90. Open Source and Scientific Data “With the very pressing issue of climate change, releasing raw data is vital. There can be no excuse not to. Releasing source code is optional, truly great for open source review - but very dangerous if everyone just re-runs the same code with the same baked-in implicit and explicit assumptions and errors. In discussion with our Chief Scientist, we have agreed it's much better to publish the following:   - the raw data and the circumstances of its collection   - the method and assumptions used to process the data (in words and   equations)   - the results of the processing   - the known limitations on the method and significance of the assumptions The computer code should be written from scratch as many times as possible to reduce the chance that it affected the results in any way.” --Gavin Starks, CEO, AMEE Wednesday, March 17, 2010
  91. 91. AMEE - the world’s energy meter Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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  98. 98. For more information  The Open Source Paradigm Shift (2003) http://bit.ly/cKLSUP  What is Web 2.0? (2005) http://oreil.ly/a0zT65  Web Squared: Web 2.0 Five Years On (2009) http://bit.ly/kEKgs  Government as a Platform (2010) http://opengovernment.labs.oreilly.com/  Ongoing commentary http://radar.oreilly.com http://twitter.com/timoreilly http://buzz.google.com/timoreilly Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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